Single-Year Tables Historical Data Intermediate Assumptions Low-Cost Assumptions High-Cost Assumptions


Table V.A1.- Fertility and Mortality Assumptions,  a
Calendar Years 1940-2095


Calendar year   Total
fertility
rate  b
  Age-sex-adjusted death rate  c
per 100,000, by age
Total   Under 65   65 and over

Historical data:
1940   2.23   1,919.8   750.1   9,718.8
1941   2.33   1,836.5   726.1   9,240.1
1942   2.55   1,776.7   703.0   8,935.3
1943   2.64   1,852.8   708.8   9,479.8
1944   2.49   1,763.8   685.6   8,952.5
1945   2.42   1,716.6   674.8   8,662.9
1946   2.86   1,664.4   641.2   8,485.9
1947   3.18   1,668.3   619.0   8,663.7
1948   3.03   1,633.0   604.8   8,488.3
1949   3.04   1,583.3   585.3   8,237.3
1950   3.03   1,561.9   570.2   8,173.7
1951   3.20   1,548.4   565.5   8,101.4
1952   3.29   1,518.8   558.8   7,919.5
1953   3.35   1,510.5   545.5   7,944.7
1954   3.46   1,433.4   514.9   7,557.2
1955   3.50   1,453.8   508.2   7,758.4
1956   3.60   1,455.4   506.8   7,780.4
1957   3.68   1,481.6   516.6   7,916.0
1958   3.63   1,467.9   506.1   7,880.1
1959   3.64   1,440.8   499.2   7,719.3
1960   3.61   1,454.3   503.2   7,795.4
1961   3.56   1,420.8   488.0   7,640.2
1962   3.42   1,448.5   493.7   7,814.1
1963   3.30   1,472.5   501.3   7,947.7
1964   3.17   1,426.0   496.5   7,622.9
1965   2.88   1,428.8   495.2   7,653.3
1966   2.67   1,431.8   497.1   7,663.7
1967   2.53   1,393.6   488.5   7,427.9
1968   2.43   1,418.1   500.8   7,534.0
1969   2.42   1,374.2   491.7   7,258.0
1970   2.43   1,340.0   485.7   7,036.3
1971   2.25   1,332.9   472.5   7,068.9
1972   1.99   1,328.0   470.4   7,045.8
1973   1.86   1,309.2   463.0   6,951.3
1974   1.82   1,255.6   443.6   6,668.9
1975   1.77   1,204.8   426.6   6,393.6
1976   1.74   1,195.1   416.1   6,389.1
1977   1.80   1,160.6   405.7   6,193.7
1978   1.76   1,155.1   399.0   6,196.8
1979   1.82   1,116.4   386.2   5,984.8
1980   1.82   1,136.9   384.3   6,154.3
1981   1.80   1,105.7   374.7   5,979.0
1982   1.81   1,071.3   362.6   5,795.9
1983   1.78   1,085.0   357.7   5,934.4
1984   1.79   1,076.5   354.3   5,891.4
1985   1.83   1,081.0   353.3   5,932.9
1986   1.83   1,070.0   350.8   5,865.1
1987   1.86   1,079.3   347.3   5,959.7
1988   1.92   1,070.3   346.3   5,897.1
1989   2.00   1,040.8   340.5   5,710.0
1990   2.07   1,021.3   333.6   5,606.3
1991   2.06   1,007.7   329.8   5,527.6
1992   2.04   992.7   322.4   5,461.5
1993   2.02   1,016.4   325.3   5,624.3
1994   2.00   1,004.1   321.8   5,553.3
1995   1.98   1,001.5   317.9   5,559.5
1996   1.98   987.8   306.6   5,529.1
1997   1.97   971.9   293.3   5,496.4
1998   2.00   963.8   285.4   5,487.1
1999   2.01   970.6   283.2   5,553.6
2000   2.05   960.7   281.0   5,492.3
2001   2.03   951.1   280.4   5,422.8
2002   2.03   947.0   279.0   5,400.6
2003   2.05   933.4   277.2   5,308.6
2004   2.06   898.9   269.7   5,093.9
2005   2.06   901.3   270.7   5,105.4
2006   2.11   876.1   267.6   4,933.5
2007   2.12   856.8   261.6   4,825.2
2008   2.07   857.0   258.8   4,845.5
2009   2.00   827.1   255.3   4,639.7
2010   1.93   821.3   248.5   4,640.1
2011   1.89   819.3   249.1   4,621.4
2012   1.87   811.9   248.5   4,568.2
2013   1.85   811.9   249.2   4,563.6
2014   1.86    d 805.4   251.1    d 4,501.1
2015   1.84    e 787.9    e 243.2    e 4,419.6
2016    e 1.87    e 779.8    e 240.8    e 4,373.7

Intermediate:
2017   1.90   772.1   238.3   4,330.8
2018   1.93   764.6   235.8   4,290.1
2019   1.96   757.3   233.3   4,251.3
2020   1.98   750.2   230.7   4,213.9
2021   2.01   743.3   228.2   4,177.8
2022   2.03   736.5   225.6   4,142.7
2023   2.05   729.8   223.1   4,108.5
2024   2.04   723.3   220.6   4,075.2
2025   2.03   716.9   218.1   4,042.5
2026   2.01   710.5   215.6   4,010.4
2027   2.00   704.3   213.1   3,978.9
2028   2.00   698.1   210.7   3,947.9
2029   2.00   692.1   208.3   3,917.5
2030   2.00   686.1   205.9   3,887.5
2031   2.00   680.2   203.6   3,858.0
2032   2.00   674.4   201.3   3,828.8
2033   2.00   668.7   199.0   3,800.2
2034   2.00   663.1   196.8   3,771.9
2035   2.00   657.5   194.6   3,743.9
2036   2.00   652.0   192.4   3,716.4
2037   2.00   646.6   190.2   3,689.3
2038   2.00   641.2   188.1   3,662.4
2039   2.00   636.0   186.0   3,636.0
2040   2.00   630.8   183.9   3,609.9
2041   2.00   625.6   181.9   3,584.1
2042   2.00   620.6   179.9   3,558.7
2043   2.00   615.6   177.9   3,533.6
2044   2.00   610.6   175.9   3,508.8
2045   2.00   605.8   174.0   3,484.3
2046   2.00   600.9   172.1   3,460.1
2047   2.00   596.2   170.2   3,436.2
2048   2.00   591.5   168.4   3,412.6
2049   2.00   586.9   166.6   3,389.3
2050   2.00   582.3   164.8   3,366.3
2051   2.00   577.8   163.0   3,343.6
2052   2.00   573.4   161.2   3,321.1
2053   2.00   569.0   159.5   3,298.9
2054   2.00   564.6   157.8   3,277.0
2055   2.00   560.4   156.1   3,255.3
2056   2.00   556.1   154.5   3,233.9
2057   2.00   551.9   152.8   3,212.8
2058   2.00   547.8   151.2   3,191.9
2059   2.00   543.7   149.6   3,171.3
2060   2.00   539.7   148.1   3,150.9
2061   2.00   535.7   146.5   3,130.7
2062   2.00   531.8   145.0   3,110.8
2063   2.00   527.9   143.5   3,091.0
2064   2.00   524.1   142.0   3,071.6
2065   2.00   520.3   140.5   3,052.3
2066   2.00   516.6   139.1   3,033.3
2067   2.00   512.9   137.7   3,014.5
2068   2.00   509.2   136.3   2,995.9
2069   2.00   505.6   134.9   2,977.5
2070   2.00   502.0   133.5   2,959.3
2071   2.00   498.5   132.1   2,941.3
2072   2.00   495.0   130.8   2,923.5
2073   2.00   491.6   129.5   2,905.9
2074   2.00   488.2   128.2   2,888.5
2075   2.00   484.8   126.9   2,871.3
2076   2.00   481.5   125.6   2,854.3
2077   2.00   478.2   124.4   2,837.4
2078   2.00   475.0   123.1   2,820.8
2079   2.00   471.7   121.9   2,804.3
2080   2.00   468.6   120.7   2,788.0
2081   2.00   465.4   119.5   2,771.9
2082   2.00   462.3   118.3   2,755.9
2083   2.00   459.3   117.2   2,740.1
2084   2.00   456.2   116.0   2,724.5
2085   2.00   453.2   114.9   2,709.0
2086   2.00   450.3   113.8   2,693.7
2087   2.00   447.3   112.7   2,678.6
2088   2.00   444.4   111.6   2,663.6
2089   2.00   441.5   110.5   2,648.8
2090   2.00   438.7   109.4   2,634.1
2091   2.00   435.9   108.4   2,619.5
2092   2.00   433.1   107.3   2,605.2
2093   2.00   430.4   106.3   2,590.9
2094   2.00   427.6   105.3   2,576.8
2095   2.00   425.0   104.3   2,562.8

Low-cost:
2017   1.93   788.2   243.0   4,423.1
2018   1.98   785.2   242.0   4,407.2
2019   2.02   782.1   240.9   4,391.0
2020   2.07   779.0   239.7   4,374.5
2021   2.11   775.8   238.5   4,358.0
2022   2.15   772.5   237.2   4,341.3
2023   2.18   769.2   236.0   4,324.5
2024   2.20   765.9   234.7   4,307.7
2025   2.20   762.6   233.4   4,290.8
2026   2.20   759.2   232.1   4,274.0
2027   2.20   755.9   230.8   4,257.2
2028   2.20   752.6   229.4   4,240.4
2029   2.20   749.3   228.1   4,223.7
2030   2.20   745.9   226.8   4,207.1
2031   2.20   742.6   225.5   4,190.5
2032   2.20   739.4   224.2   4,174.0
2033   2.20   736.1   222.9   4,157.6
2034   2.20   732.9   221.6   4,141.3
2035   2.20   729.6   220.4   4,125.1
2036   2.20   726.4   219.1   4,108.9
2037   2.20   723.2   217.8   4,092.9
2038   2.20   720.1   216.6   4,077.0
2039   2.20   716.9   215.3   4,061.2
2040   2.20   713.8   214.1   4,045.4
2041   2.20   710.7   212.9   4,029.8
2042   2.20   707.6   211.6   4,014.2
2043   2.20   704.5   210.4   3,998.8
2044   2.20   701.5   209.2   3,983.5
2045   2.20   698.4   208.0   3,968.2
2046   2.20   695.4   206.8   3,953.1
2047   2.20   692.5   205.7   3,938.1
2048   2.20   689.5   204.5   3,923.2
2049   2.20   686.5   203.3   3,908.3
2050   2.20   683.6   202.2   3,893.6
2051   2.20   680.7   201.0   3,879.0
2052   2.20   677.8   199.9   3,864.4
2053   2.20   675.0   198.8   3,850.0
2054   2.20   672.1   197.6   3,835.6
2055   2.20   669.3   196.5   3,821.4
2056   2.20   666.5   195.4   3,807.2
2057   2.20   663.7   194.3   3,793.1
2058   2.20   660.9   193.2   3,779.2
2059   2.20   658.2   192.1   3,765.3
2060   2.20   655.4   191.1   3,751.5
2061   2.20   652.7   190.0   3,737.8
2062   2.20   650.0   188.9   3,724.2
2063   2.20   647.3   187.9   3,710.6
2064   2.20   644.7   186.8   3,697.2
2065   2.20   642.0   185.8   3,683.8
2066   2.20   639.4   184.8   3,670.5
2067   2.20   636.8   183.7   3,657.4
2068   2.20   634.2   182.7   3,644.3
2069   2.20   631.6   181.7   3,631.2
2070   2.20   629.1   180.7   3,618.3
2071   2.20   626.5   179.7   3,605.4
2072   2.20   624.0   178.7   3,592.7
2073   2.20   621.5   177.8   3,580.0
2074   2.20   619.0   176.8   3,567.4
2075   2.20   616.5   175.8   3,554.8
2076   2.20   614.1   174.9   3,542.4
2077   2.20   611.6   173.9   3,530.0
2078   2.20   609.2   173.0   3,517.7
2079   2.20   606.8   172.0   3,505.5
2080   2.20   604.4   171.1   3,493.3
2081   2.20   602.0   170.2   3,481.2
2082   2.20   599.6   169.2   3,469.2
2083   2.20   597.3   168.3   3,457.3
2084   2.20   594.9   167.4   3,445.5
2085   2.20   592.6   166.5   3,433.7
2086   2.20   590.3   165.6   3,422.0
2087   2.20   588.0   164.7   3,410.3
2088   2.20   585.8   163.8   3,398.8
2089   2.20   583.5   163.0   3,387.3
2090   2.20   581.2   162.1   3,375.8
2091   2.20   579.0   161.2   3,364.5
2092   2.20   576.8   160.4   3,353.2
2093   2.20   574.6   159.5   3,342.0
2094   2.20   572.4   158.7   3,330.8
2095   2.20   570.2   157.8   3,319.8

High-cost:
2017   1.86   755.0   233.2   4,234.1
2018   1.88   742.6   229.0   4,167.1
2019   1.89   730.8   224.9   4,104.0
2020   1.90   719.4   220.7   4,044.1
2021   1.91   708.4   216.7   3,986.9
2022   1.91   697.7   212.6   3,932.1
2023   1.92   687.4   208.7   3,879.2
2024   1.90   677.4   204.8   3,828.2
2025   1.89   667.6   201.0   3,778.7
2026   1.88   658.1   197.2   3,730.7
2027   1.86   648.8   193.6   3,683.9
2028   1.85   639.7   190.0   3,638.5
2029   1.84   630.9   186.4   3,594.1
2030   1.83   622.2   183.0   3,550.8
2031   1.81   613.8   179.6   3,508.6
2032   1.80   605.6   176.3   3,467.2
2033   1.80   597.5   173.1   3,426.9
2034   1.80   589.6   170.0   3,387.4
2035   1.80   581.9   166.9   3,348.7
2036   1.80   574.3   163.9   3,310.9
2037   1.80   566.9   160.9   3,273.8
2038   1.80   559.7   158.1   3,237.5
2039   1.80   552.6   155.3   3,202.0
2040   1.80   545.7   152.5   3,167.1
2041   1.80   538.9   149.8   3,133.0
2042   1.80   532.3   147.2   3,099.5
2043   1.80   525.8   144.6   3,066.7
2044   1.80   519.4   142.1   3,034.6
2045   1.80   513.1   139.7   3,003.0
2046   1.80   507.0   137.3   2,972.0
2047   1.80   501.0   134.9   2,941.6
2048   1.80   495.1   132.6   2,911.8
2049   1.80   489.3   130.4   2,882.6
2050   1.80   483.7   128.2   2,853.8
2051   1.80   478.1   126.0   2,825.6
2052   1.80   472.7   123.9   2,797.9
2053   1.80   467.4   121.9   2,770.7
2054   1.80   462.1   119.9   2,744.0
2055   1.80   457.0   117.9   2,717.7
2056   1.80   451.9   116.0   2,692.0
2057   1.80   447.0   114.1   2,666.6
2058   1.80   442.1   112.2   2,641.7
2059   1.80   437.4   110.4   2,617.2
2060   1.80   432.7   108.6   2,593.2
2061   1.80   428.1   106.9   2,569.5
2062   1.80   423.6   105.2   2,546.3
2063   1.80   419.1   103.5   2,523.4
2064   1.80   414.8   101.9   2,500.9
2065   1.80   410.5   100.3   2,478.7
2066   1.80   406.3   98.7   2,457.0
2067   1.80   402.2   97.2   2,435.5
2068   1.80   398.1   95.7   2,414.5
2069   1.80   394.1   94.2   2,393.7
2070   1.80   390.2   92.7   2,373.3
2071   1.80   386.3   91.3   2,353.2
2072   1.80   382.5   89.9   2,333.4
2073   1.80   378.8   88.6   2,313.9
2074   1.80   375.1   87.2   2,294.7
2075   1.80   371.5   85.9   2,275.7
2076   1.80   368.0   84.6   2,257.1
2077   1.80   364.5   83.4   2,238.7
2078   1.80   361.0   82.1   2,220.7
2079   1.80   357.7   80.9   2,202.8
2080   1.80   354.3   79.7   2,185.3
2081   1.80   351.1   78.5   2,168.0
2082   1.80   347.8   77.4   2,150.9
2083   1.80   344.7   76.3   2,134.1
2084   1.80   341.5   75.2   2,117.5
2085   1.80   338.4   74.1   2,101.1
2086   1.80   335.4   73.0   2,085.0
2087   1.80   332.4   72.0   2,069.1
2088   1.80   329.5   70.9   2,053.4
2089   1.80   326.6   69.9   2,037.9
2090   1.80   323.7   68.9   2,022.6
2091   1.80   320.9   68.0   2,007.5
2092   1.80   318.2   67.0   1,992.7
2093   1.80   315.4   66.1   1,978.0
2094   1.80   312.7   65.1   1,963.5
2095   1.80   310.1   64.2   1,949.2

a This table contains basic assumptions along with key summary values that are derived from basic assumptions.
b The total fertility rate for any year is the average number of children that would be born to a woman in her lifetime if she were to experience, at each age of her life, the birth rate observed in, or assumed for, the selected year, and if she were to survive the entire childbearing period.
c Based on the enumerated total population as of April 1, 2010, if that population were to experience the death rates by age and sex observed in, or assumed for, the selected year.
d Estimated.
e Estimated, intermediate alternative.