Fertility and Mortality Assumptions — 2020 OASDI Trustees Report

Single-Year Tables Historical data Intermediate Assumptions Low-Cost Assumptions High-Cost Assumptions
Table V.A1.—Fertility and Mortality Assumptions, a
Calendar Years 1940-2095
Calendar year   Total
fertility
rate b 		  Age-sex-adjusted death rate c
per 100,000
Total   Under 65   65 and over

Historical data:
1940   2.23   1,919.8   750.1   9,718.8
1941   2.33   1,836.5   726.1   9,240.1
1942   2.55   1,776.7   703.0   8,935.3
1943   2.64   1,852.8   708.8   9,479.8
1944   2.49   1,763.8   685.6   8,952.5
1945   2.42   1,716.6   674.8   8,662.9
1946   2.86   1,664.4   641.2   8,485.9
1947   3.18   1,668.3   619.0   8,663.7
1948   3.03   1,633.0   604.8   8,488.3
1949   3.04   1,583.3   585.3   8,237.3
1950   3.03   1,561.9   570.2   8,173.7
1951   3.20   1,548.4   565.5   8,101.4
1952   3.29   1,518.8   558.8   7,919.5
1953   3.35   1,510.5   545.5   7,944.7
1954   3.46   1,433.4   514.9   7,557.2
1955   3.50   1,453.8   508.2   7,758.4
1956   3.60   1,455.4   506.8   7,780.4
1957   3.68   1,481.6   516.6   7,916.0
1958   3.63   1,467.9   506.1   7,880.1
1959   3.64   1,440.8   499.2   7,719.3
1960   3.61   1,454.3   503.2   7,795.6
1961   3.56   1,421.0   488.0   7,642.0
1962   3.42   1,448.3   493.7   7,813.3
1963   3.30   1,472.7   501.3   7,949.1
1964   3.17   1,426.0   496.5   7,622.9
1965   2.88   1,428.8   495.2   7,653.9
1966   2.67   1,431.5   497.1   7,661.5
1967   2.53   1,393.5   488.5   7,427.4
1968   2.43   1,418.1   500.8   7,534.0
1969   2.42   1,374.1   491.6   7,258.0
1970   2.43   1,340.0   485.7   7,036.3
1971   2.25   1,332.9   472.6   7,068.9
1972   1.99   1,328.0   470.4   7,045.8
1973   1.86   1,309.2   462.9   6,951.3
1974   1.82   1,255.6   443.6   6,668.9
1975   1.77   1,204.8   426.6   6,393.6
1976   1.74   1,195.1   416.1   6,389.1
1977   1.80   1,160.6   405.7   6,193.7
1978   1.76   1,155.1   399.0   6,196.8
1979   1.82   1,116.4   386.3   5,984.8
1980   1.82   1,136.9   384.3   6,154.3
1981   1.80   1,105.7   374.7   5,979.0
1982   1.81   1,071.3   362.6   5,795.9
1983   1.78   1,085.0   357.7   5,934.4
1984   1.79   1,076.5   354.3   5,891.4
1985   1.83   1,081.0   353.3   5,932.9
1986   1.83   1,070.0   350.8   5,865.1
1987   1.86   1,059.3   347.3   5,805.8
1988   1.92   1,072.2   346.3   5,911.9
1989   2.00   1,042.6   340.5   5,723.7
1990   2.07   1,022.9   333.6   5,618.9
1991   2.06   1,009.2   329.8   5,538.9
1992   2.04   994.0   322.4   5,471.7
1993   2.02   1,017.7   325.3   5,634.3
1994   2.00   1,005.3   321.8   5,562.1
1995   1.98   1,002.7   317.9   5,568.6
1996   1.98   988.8   306.6   5,537.4
1997   1.97   972.9   293.3   5,503.6
1998   2.00   964.8   285.4   5,494.6
1999   2.01   971.7   283.2   5,561.6
2000   2.05   961.5   281.0   5,498.9
2001   2.03   951.9   280.4   5,428.6
2002   2.03   947.6   279.0   5,405.7
2003   2.05   933.9   277.2   5,312.3
2004   2.06   899.3   269.7   5,097.0
2005   2.06   901.9   270.7   5,110.3
2006   2.11   879.1   267.6   4,956.5
2007   2.12   858.1   261.6   4,835.4
2008   2.07   858.1   258.8   4,854.4
2009   2.00   827.8   255.3   4,644.7
2010   1.93   820.8   248.5   4,636.1
2011   1.89   820.7   249.2   4,631.3
2012   1.87   811.8   248.8   4,565.6
2013   1.85   812.3   249.6   4,564.6
2014   1.86   805.1   251.7   4,495.1
2015   1.85   815.3   255.2   4,549.7
2016   1.82   808.7   260.8   4,461.0
2017   1.77    d 812.5   261.5    d 4,486.3
2018   1.73    e 800.5    e 255.8    e 4,431.9
2019    f 1.68    g 795.5    g 255.3    g 4,397.1

Intermediate:
2020   1.69   790.4   254.3   4,364.9
2021   1.70   784.9   252.9   4,332.3
2022   1.73   779.2   251.2   4,299.4
2023   1.77   773.2   249.3   4,266.4
2024   1.82   767.1   247.2   4,233.3
2025   1.87   760.9   245.0   4,200.3
2026   1.91   754.6   242.7   4,167.4
2027   1.93   748.3   240.4   4,134.7
2028   1.94   742.0   238.0   4,102.3
2029   1.95   735.7   235.5   4,070.2
2030   1.95   729.4   233.1   4,038.3
2031   1.95   723.1   230.6   4,006.8
2032   1.95   716.9   228.1   3,975.7
2033   1.95   710.7   225.7   3,944.8
2034   1.95   704.7   223.2   3,914.4
2035   1.95   698.6   220.8   3,884.3
2036   1.95   692.7   218.4   3,854.6
2037   1.95   686.8   216.0   3,825.3
2038   1.95   681.0   213.7   3,796.4
2039   1.95   675.2   211.4   3,767.8
2040   1.95   669.5   209.1   3,739.6
2041   1.95   663.9   206.8   3,711.7
2042   1.95   658.4   204.5   3,684.2
2043   1.95   652.9   202.3   3,657.1
2044   1.95   647.5   200.1   3,630.3
2045   1.95   642.2   198.0   3,603.8
2046   1.95   636.9   195.9   3,577.7
2047   1.95   631.7   193.7   3,551.9
2048   1.95   626.6   191.7   3,526.4
2049   1.95   621.6   189.6   3,501.3
2050   1.95   616.6   187.6   3,476.5
2051   1.95   611.6   185.6   3,452.0
2052   1.95   606.8   183.7   3,427.8
2053   1.95   602.0   181.7   3,403.9
2054   1.95   597.2   179.8   3,380.3
2055   1.95   592.6   177.9   3,357.0
2056   1.95   588.0   176.1   3,334.0
2057   1.95   583.4   174.2   3,311.3
2058   1.95   578.9   172.4   3,288.9
2059   1.95   574.5   170.7   3,266.7
2060   1.95   570.1   168.9   3,244.8
2061   1.95   565.7   167.2   3,223.2
2062   1.95   561.5   165.4   3,201.9
2063   1.95   557.2   163.7   3,180.7
2064   1.95   553.1   162.1   3,159.9
2065   1.95   548.9   160.4   3,139.3
2066   1.95   544.9   158.8   3,118.9
2067   1.95   540.9   157.2   3,098.8
2068   1.95   536.9   155.6   3,078.9
2069   1.95   533.0   154.1   3,059.3
2070   1.95   529.1   152.5   3,039.8
2071   1.95   525.3   151.0   3,020.6
2072   1.95   521.5   149.5   3,001.7
2073   1.95   517.7   148.0   2,982.9
2074   1.95   514.0   146.5   2,964.4
2075   1.95   510.4   145.1   2,946.0
2076   1.95   506.8   143.7   2,927.9
2077   1.95   503.2   142.2   2,910.0
2078   1.95   499.7   140.9   2,892.3
2079   1.95   496.2   139.5   2,874.7
2080   1.95   492.8   138.1   2,857.4
2081   1.95   489.4   136.8   2,840.3
2082   1.95   486.0   135.5   2,823.3
2083   1.95   482.7   134.2   2,806.6
2084   1.95   479.4   132.9   2,790.0
2085   1.95   476.2   131.6   2,773.6
2086   1.95   473.0   130.3   2,757.4
2087   1.95   469.8   129.1   2,741.3
2088   1.95   466.6   127.9   2,725.5
2089   1.95   463.5   126.6   2,709.8
2090   1.95   460.5   125.4   2,694.2
2091   1.95   457.4   124.3   2,678.9
2092   1.95   454.4   123.1   2,663.6
2093   1.95   451.5   121.9   2,648.6
2094   1.95   448.5   120.8   2,633.7
2095   1.95   445.6   119.7   2,619.0

Low-cost:
2020   1.73   798.3   257.0   4,407.4
2021   1.76   796.6   256.9   4,394.7
2022   1.80   794.6   256.7   4,381.0
2023   1.86   792.2   256.1   4,366.4
2024   1.93   789.6   255.4   4,351.3
2025   1.99   786.9   254.6   4,335.6
2026   2.05   783.9   253.6   4,319.6
2027   2.09   780.9   252.6   4,303.3
2028   2.13   777.8   251.4   4,286.8
2029   2.15   774.6   250.3   4,270.2
2030   2.15   771.3   249.0   4,253.6
2031   2.15   768.0   247.8   4,236.8
2032   2.15   764.7   246.5   4,220.1
2033   2.15   761.4   245.2   4,203.4
2034   2.15   758.1   243.9   4,186.7
2035   2.15   754.8   242.6   4,170.1
2036   2.15   751.5   241.2   4,153.5
2037   2.15   748.2   239.9   4,137.0
2038   2.15   744.9   238.6   4,120.6
2039   2.15   741.6   237.3   4,104.3
2040   2.15   738.4   236.0   4,088.1
2041   2.15   735.1   234.7   4,071.9
2042   2.15   731.9   233.3   4,055.9
2043   2.15   728.7   232.1   4,040.0
2044   2.15   725.5   230.8   4,024.1
2045   2.15   722.3   229.5   4,008.3
2046   2.15   719.2   228.2   3,992.7
2047   2.15   716.0   226.9   3,977.1
2048   2.15   712.9   225.7   3,961.7
2049   2.15   709.8   224.4   3,946.3
2050   2.15   706.8   223.2   3,931.1
2051   2.15   703.7   221.9   3,916.0
2052   2.15   700.7   220.7   3,900.9
2053   2.15   697.7   219.5   3,886.0
2054   2.15   694.7   218.3   3,871.2
2055   2.15   691.7   217.1   3,856.4
2056   2.15   688.8   215.9   3,841.8
2057   2.15   685.9   214.7   3,827.3
2058   2.15   683.0   213.5   3,812.8
2059   2.15   680.1   212.3   3,798.5
2060   2.15   677.2   211.2   3,784.2
2061   2.15   674.4   210.0   3,770.1
2062   2.15   671.5   208.9   3,756.0
2063   2.15   668.7   207.8   3,742.0
2064   2.15   665.9   206.6   3,728.2
2065   2.15   663.2   205.5   3,714.4
2066   2.15   660.4   204.4   3,700.7
2067   2.15   657.7   203.3   3,687.1
2068   2.15   655.0   202.2   3,673.6
2069   2.15   652.3   201.1   3,660.1
2070   2.15   649.6   200.0   3,646.8
2071   2.15   646.9   199.0   3,633.5
2072   2.15   644.3   197.9   3,620.3
2073   2.15   641.6   196.8   3,607.3
2074   2.15   639.0   195.8   3,594.3
2075   2.15   636.4   194.7   3,581.3
2076   2.15   633.9   193.7   3,568.5
2077   2.15   631.3   192.7   3,555.7
2078   2.15   628.8   191.6   3,543.1
2079   2.15   626.2   190.6   3,530.5
2080   2.15   623.7   189.6   3,518.0
2081   2.15   621.2   188.6   3,505.5
2082   2.15   618.7   187.6   3,493.2
2083   2.15   616.3   186.6   3,480.9
2084   2.15   613.8   185.7   3,468.7
2085   2.15   611.4   184.7   3,456.6
2086   2.15   609.0   183.7   3,444.5
2087   2.15   606.6   182.7   3,432.5
2088   2.15   604.2   181.8   3,420.6
2089   2.15   601.8   180.8   3,408.8
2090   2.15   599.5   179.9   3,397.1
2091   2.15   597.2   179.0   3,385.4
2092   2.15   594.8   178.0   3,373.8
2093   2.15   592.5   177.1   3,362.3
2094   2.15   590.2   176.2   3,350.8
2095   2.15   588.0   175.3   3,339.4

High-cost:
2020   1.65   781.9   251.3   4,319.3
2021   1.65   772.1   248.3   4,264.5
2022   1.65   762.2   245.1   4,209.9
2023   1.67   752.0   241.5   4,155.7
2024   1.71   741.9   237.9   4,102.1
2025   1.74   731.7   234.1   4,049.1
2026   1.75   721.5   230.3   3,997.0
2027   1.75   711.5   226.4   3,945.7
2028   1.75   701.5   222.5   3,895.3
2029   1.75   691.7   218.6   3,845.8
2030   1.75   682.0   214.8   3,797.3
2031   1.75   672.5   211.0   3,749.7
2032   1.75   663.2   207.3   3,703.0
2033   1.75   654.0   203.6   3,657.4
2034   1.75   645.1   200.0   3,612.6
2035   1.75   636.3   196.4   3,568.8
2036   1.75   627.6   192.9   3,525.9
2037   1.75   619.2   189.5   3,483.9
2038   1.75   610.9   186.2   3,442.8
2039   1.75   602.8   182.9   3,402.5
2040   1.75   594.9   179.7   3,363.0
2041   1.75   587.1   176.6   3,324.4
2042   1.75   579.5   173.5   3,286.5
2043   1.75   572.1   170.5   3,249.5
2044   1.75   564.8   167.5   3,213.1
2045   1.75   557.6   164.7   3,177.5
2046   1.75   550.6   161.8   3,142.6
2047   1.75   543.8   159.1   3,108.4
2048   1.75   537.0   156.4   3,074.9
2049   1.75   530.5   153.8   3,042.1
2050   1.75   524.0   151.2   3,009.9
2051   1.75   517.7   148.6   2,978.3
2052   1.75   511.5   146.2   2,947.3
2053   1.75   505.4   143.8   2,916.9
2054   1.75   499.5   141.4   2,887.1
2055   1.75   493.7   139.1   2,857.8
2056   1.75   488.0   136.8   2,829.1
2057   1.75   482.4   134.6   2,800.9
2058   1.75   476.9   132.4   2,773.3
2059   1.75   471.5   130.3   2,746.1
2060   1.75   466.2   128.2   2,719.5
2061   1.75   461.0   126.2   2,693.3
2062   1.75   455.9   124.2   2,667.6
2063   1.75   450.9   122.2   2,642.3
2064   1.75   446.0   120.3   2,617.5
2065   1.75   441.2   118.4   2,593.1
2066   1.75   436.5   116.6   2,569.1
2067   1.75   431.8   114.8   2,545.5
2068   1.75   427.2   113.0   2,522.3
2069   1.75   422.8   111.3   2,499.6
2070   1.75   418.4   109.6   2,477.2
2071   1.75   414.0   107.9   2,455.1
2072   1.75   409.8   106.3   2,433.5
2073   1.75   405.6   104.7   2,412.2
2074   1.75   401.5   103.1   2,391.2
2075   1.75   397.5   101.6   2,370.5
2076   1.75   393.5   100.1   2,350.2
2077   1.75   389.6   98.6   2,330.2
2078   1.75   385.8   97.1   2,310.6
2079   1.75   382.0   95.7   2,291.2
2080   1.75   378.3   94.3   2,272.1
2081   1.75   374.7   92.9   2,253.3
2082   1.75   371.1   91.6   2,234.8
2083   1.75   367.6   90.2   2,216.6
2084   1.75   364.1   88.9   2,198.7
2085   1.75   360.7   87.7   2,181.0
2086   1.75   357.3   86.4   2,163.6
2087   1.75   354.0   85.2   2,146.4
2088   1.75   350.8   84.0   2,129.5
2089   1.75   347.5   82.8   2,112.8
2090   1.75   344.4   81.6   2,096.3
2091   1.75   341.3   80.5   2,080.1
2092   1.75   338.2   79.4   2,064.1
2093   1.75   335.2   78.2   2,048.3
2094   1.75   332.2   77.2   2,032.8
2095   1.75   329.3   76.1   2,017.5
a This table contains basic assumptions along with key summary values that are derived from basic assumptions.
b The total fertility rate for any year is the average number of children that would be born to a woman if she were to experience, at each age of her life, the birth rate observed in, or assumed for, the selected year, and if she were to survive the entire childbearing period.
c Based on the enumerated total population as of April 1, 2010, if that population were to experience the death rates by age and sex observed in, or assumed for, the selected year.
d Estimated using final data for ages below 65 and preliminary data for ages 65 and older.
e Estimated using the intermediate assumptions for ages below 65 and preliminary data for ages 65 and older.
f Estimated using provisional first quarter data.
g Estimated using the intermediate assumptions for all ages.