Detailed Single Year Tables
Description of Proposed Provision:
G5: Invest 15 percent of the OASI and DI Trust Fund reserves in equities (phased in 2025-2034), assuming an ultimate 2.3 percent annual real rate of return on equities. Thus, the ultimate rate of return on equities is the same as that assumed for Trust Fund bonds.
Financial Estimates for the OASDI Trust Fund Program
| Proposal | Change from Current Law | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Expressed as a percentage of current-law taxable payroll |
Trust fund ratio as of January 1 |
Expressed as a percentage of current-law taxable payroll |
|||||||
|
Calendar year |
Cost rate |
Income rate |
Annual balance |
Cost rate |
Income rate |
Annual balance |
|||
| 2024 | 14.71 | 13.03 | -1.68 | 188 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | ||
| 2025 | 15.00 | 12.89 | -2.11 | 171 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | ||
| 2026 | 15.20 | 13.07 | -2.13 | 152 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | ||
| 2027 | 15.36 | 13.11 | -2.25 | 134 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | ||
| 2028 | 15.42 | 13.13 | -2.28 | 117 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | ||
| 2029 | 15.47 | 13.16 | -2.31 | 101 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | ||
| 2030 | 15.53 | 13.18 | -2.35 | 84 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | ||
| 2031 | 15.58 | 13.20 | -2.37 | 68 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | ||
| 2032 | 15.60 | 13.22 | -2.38 | 53 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | ||
| 2033 | 15.66 | 13.26 | -2.40 | 37 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | ||
| 2034 | 15.77 | 13.28 | -2.50 | 22 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | ||
| 2035 | 15.88 | 13.29 | -2.60 | 7 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | ||
| 2036 | 15.99 | 13.30 | -2.69 | — | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | ||
| 2037 | 16.09 | 13.30 | -2.79 | — | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | ||
| 2038 | 16.18 | 13.31 | -2.86 | — | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | ||
| 2039 | 16.25 | 13.32 | -2.93 | — | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | ||
| 2040 | 16.32 | 13.32 | -3.00 | — | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | ||
| 2041 | 16.38 | 13.33 | -3.05 | — | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | ||
| 2042 | 16.43 | 13.33 | -3.10 | — | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | ||
| 2043 | 16.48 | 13.34 | -3.14 | — | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | ||
| 2044 | 16.52 | 13.34 | -3.18 | — | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | ||
| 2045 | 16.55 | 13.34 | -3.21 | — | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | ||
| 2046 | 16.59 | 13.35 | -3.24 | — | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | ||
| 2047 | 16.62 | 13.35 | -3.27 | — | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | ||
| 2048 | 16.66 | 13.36 | -3.31 | — | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | ||
| 2049 | 16.71 | 13.36 | -3.35 | — | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | ||
| 2050 | 16.76 | 13.36 | -3.40 | — | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | ||
| 2051 | 16.81 | 13.37 | -3.44 | — | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | ||
| 2052 | 16.87 | 13.37 | -3.50 | — | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | ||
| 2053 | 16.93 | 13.38 | -3.56 | — | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | ||
| 2054 | 17.00 | 13.38 | -3.62 | — | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | ||
| 2055 | 17.08 | 13.39 | -3.69 | — | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | ||
| 2056 | 17.16 | 13.40 | -3.76 | — | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | ||
| 2057 | 17.24 | 13.40 | -3.84 | — | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | ||
| 2058 | 17.33 | 13.41 | -3.92 | — | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | ||
| 2059 | 17.42 | 13.42 | -4.00 | — | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | ||
| 2060 | 17.50 | 13.42 | -4.08 | — | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | ||
| 2061 | 17.58 | 13.43 | -4.15 | — | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | ||
| 2062 | 17.66 | 13.44 | -4.22 | — | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | ||
| 2063 | 17.72 | 13.44 | -4.28 | — | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | ||
| 2064 | 17.79 | 13.45 | -4.34 | — | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | ||
| 2065 | 17.85 | 13.45 | -4.40 | — | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | ||
| 2066 | 17.92 | 13.46 | -4.46 | — | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | ||
| 2067 | 17.98 | 13.46 | -4.52 | — | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | ||
| 2068 | 18.05 | 13.47 | -4.58 | — | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | ||
| 2069 | 18.11 | 13.47 | -4.64 | — | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | ||
| 2070 | 18.18 | 13.48 | -4.70 | — | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | ||
| 2071 | 18.25 | 13.48 | -4.77 | — | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | ||
| 2072 | 18.31 | 13.49 | -4.82 | — | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | ||
| 2073 | 18.37 | 13.49 | -4.88 | — | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | ||
| 2074 | 18.43 | 13.50 | -4.93 | — | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | ||
| 2075 | 18.48 | 13.50 | -4.98 | — | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | ||
| 2076 | 18.53 | 13.51 | -5.02 | — | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | ||
| 2077 | 18.56 | 13.51 | -5.05 | — | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | ||
| 2078 | 18.58 | 13.51 | -5.07 | — | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | ||
| 2079 | 18.59 | 13.51 | -5.08 | — | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | ||
| 2080 | 18.60 | 13.51 | -5.08 | — | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | ||
| 2081 | 18.59 | 13.51 | -5.07 | — | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | ||
| 2082 | 18.57 | 13.51 | -5.06 | — | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | ||
| 2083 | 18.55 | 13.51 | -5.03 | — | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | ||
| 2084 | 18.51 | 13.51 | -5.00 | — | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | ||
| 2085 | 18.47 | 13.51 | -4.96 | — | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | ||
| 2086 | 18.42 | 13.51 | -4.91 | — | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | ||
| 2087 | 18.36 | 13.50 | -4.86 | — | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | ||
| 2088 | 18.30 | 13.50 | -4.80 | — | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | ||
| 2089 | 18.25 | 13.50 | -4.75 | — | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | ||
| 2090 | 18.19 | 13.49 | -4.70 | — | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | ||
| 2091 | 18.14 | 13.49 | -4.65 | — | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | ||
| 2092 | 18.10 | 13.49 | -4.62 | — | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | ||
| 2093 | 18.08 | 13.48 | -4.60 | — | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | ||
| 2094 | 18.07 | 13.48 | -4.58 | — | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | ||
| 2095 | 18.07 | 13.48 | -4.58 | — | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | ||
| 2096 | 18.08 | 13.48 | -4.59 | — | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | ||
| 2097 | 18.09 | 13.49 | -4.61 | — | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | ||
| 2098 | 18.12 | 13.49 | -4.64 | — | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | ||
| 2099 | 18.16 | 13.49 | -4.67 | — | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | ||
| Proposal | Change from Current Law | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Years | Cost rate |
Income rate |
Actuarial balance |
Year of reserve depletion1 |
Cost rate |
Income rate |
Actuarial balance |
||
| 2024-2098 | 17.30%2 | 13.80%2 | -3.50%2 | 2035 | 0.00%2 | 0.00%2 | 0.00%2 | ||
|
1 Under current law, the year of Trust Fund reserve depletion is 2035. |
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| 2 A change in the investment of trust fund reserves to include some equities affects the size of all summarized measures because increased "present-value" discounting reduces the weight on values for more distant future years. As a result, the magnitude of the current-law actuarial balance and the summarized effects of most proposals is reduced. Therefore, the size of the change in the long-range actuarial balance indicated here cannot be interpreted directly as a reduction in the shortfall. The actual reduction in the shortfall from equity investment depends on the amount of reserves that are available for investment throughout the period. For example, if provisions to change revenue or scheduled benefits resulted in a purely pay-as-you-go system (reserves just above zero throughout the period), then investment in equities would have no effect on the actuarial balance. | |||||||||
Based on Intermediate Assumptions of the 2024 Trustees Report.