Detailed Single Year Tables
Description of Proposed Provision:
A3: Starting December 2025, compute the COLA using a chained version of the consumer price index for wage and salary workers (CPI-W). We estimate this new computation will reduce the annual COLA by about 0.3 percentage point, on average.
Financial Estimates for the OASDI Trust Fund Program
| Proposal | Change from Current Law | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Expressed as a percentage of current-law taxable payroll |
Trust fund ratio as of January 1 |
Expressed as a percentage of current-law taxable payroll |
|||||||
|
Calendar year |
Cost rate |
Income rate |
Annual balance |
Cost rate |
Income rate |
Annual balance |
|||
| 2024 | 14.71 | 13.03 | -1.68 | 188 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | ||
| 2025 | 15.00 | 12.89 | -2.11 | 171 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | ||
| 2026 | 15.16 | 13.07 | -2.09 | 153 | -0.04 | -0.00 | 0.04 | ||
| 2027 | 15.27 | 13.10 | -2.17 | 136 | -0.09 | -0.00 | 0.08 | ||
| 2028 | 15.29 | 13.13 | -2.16 | 119 | -0.13 | -0.01 | 0.13 | ||
| 2029 | 15.29 | 13.15 | -2.14 | 103 | -0.17 | -0.01 | 0.17 | ||
| 2030 | 15.31 | 13.17 | -2.14 | 88 | -0.22 | -0.01 | 0.21 | ||
| 2031 | 15.32 | 13.19 | -2.13 | 73 | -0.26 | -0.01 | 0.24 | ||
| 2032 | 15.31 | 13.20 | -2.10 | 59 | -0.30 | -0.02 | 0.28 | ||
| 2033 | 15.33 | 13.25 | -2.08 | 45 | -0.33 | -0.02 | 0.31 | ||
| 2034 | 15.40 | 13.26 | -2.15 | 32 | -0.37 | -0.02 | 0.35 | ||
| 2035 | 15.48 | 13.26 | -2.22 | 18 | -0.40 | -0.02 | 0.38 | ||
| 2036 | 15.55 | 13.27 | -2.28 | 4 | -0.44 | -0.03 | 0.41 | ||
| 2037 | 15.62 | 13.28 | -2.35 | — | -0.47 | -0.03 | 0.44 | ||
| 2038 | 15.68 | 13.28 | -2.40 | — | -0.50 | -0.03 | 0.47 | ||
| 2039 | 15.72 | 13.29 | -2.44 | — | -0.53 | -0.03 | 0.50 | ||
| 2040 | 15.77 | 13.29 | -2.48 | — | -0.55 | -0.03 | 0.52 | ||
| 2041 | 15.81 | 13.30 | -2.51 | — | -0.58 | -0.03 | 0.54 | ||
| 2042 | 15.84 | 13.30 | -2.54 | — | -0.60 | -0.04 | 0.56 | ||
| 2043 | 15.86 | 13.30 | -2.56 | — | -0.62 | -0.04 | 0.58 | ||
| 2044 | 15.88 | 13.30 | -2.58 | — | -0.64 | -0.04 | 0.60 | ||
| 2045 | 15.90 | 13.31 | -2.60 | — | -0.65 | -0.04 | 0.61 | ||
| 2046 | 15.92 | 13.31 | -2.61 | — | -0.66 | -0.04 | 0.62 | ||
| 2047 | 15.95 | 13.31 | -2.64 | — | -0.68 | -0.04 | 0.64 | ||
| 2048 | 15.98 | 13.31 | -2.66 | — | -0.69 | -0.04 | 0.65 | ||
| 2049 | 16.01 | 13.32 | -2.69 | — | -0.70 | -0.04 | 0.66 | ||
| 2050 | 16.05 | 13.32 | -2.73 | — | -0.71 | -0.04 | 0.66 | ||
| 2051 | 16.09 | 13.32 | -2.77 | — | -0.72 | -0.04 | 0.67 | ||
| 2052 | 16.15 | 13.33 | -2.82 | — | -0.72 | -0.04 | 0.68 | ||
| 2053 | 16.20 | 13.33 | -2.87 | — | -0.73 | -0.04 | 0.69 | ||
| 2054 | 16.27 | 13.34 | -2.93 | — | -0.74 | -0.04 | 0.69 | ||
| 2055 | 16.34 | 13.34 | -2.99 | — | -0.74 | -0.05 | 0.70 | ||
| 2056 | 16.41 | 13.35 | -3.06 | — | -0.75 | -0.05 | 0.70 | ||
| 2057 | 16.49 | 13.36 | -3.13 | — | -0.75 | -0.05 | 0.71 | ||
| 2058 | 16.57 | 13.36 | -3.21 | — | -0.76 | -0.05 | 0.71 | ||
| 2059 | 16.65 | 13.37 | -3.28 | — | -0.76 | -0.05 | 0.72 | ||
| 2060 | 16.73 | 13.38 | -3.35 | — | -0.77 | -0.05 | 0.72 | ||
| 2061 | 16.81 | 13.38 | -3.42 | — | -0.78 | -0.05 | 0.73 | ||
| 2062 | 16.87 | 13.39 | -3.48 | — | -0.78 | -0.05 | 0.73 | ||
| 2063 | 16.94 | 13.39 | -3.54 | — | -0.79 | -0.05 | 0.74 | ||
| 2064 | 17.00 | 13.40 | -3.60 | — | -0.79 | -0.05 | 0.74 | ||
| 2065 | 17.05 | 13.40 | -3.65 | — | -0.80 | -0.05 | 0.75 | ||
| 2066 | 17.11 | 13.41 | -3.70 | — | -0.80 | -0.05 | 0.75 | ||
| 2067 | 17.17 | 13.41 | -3.76 | — | -0.81 | -0.05 | 0.76 | ||
| 2068 | 17.23 | 13.42 | -3.81 | — | -0.82 | -0.05 | 0.77 | ||
| 2069 | 17.29 | 13.42 | -3.87 | — | -0.82 | -0.05 | 0.77 | ||
| 2070 | 17.36 | 13.43 | -3.93 | — | -0.83 | -0.05 | 0.78 | ||
| 2071 | 17.42 | 13.43 | -3.98 | — | -0.83 | -0.05 | 0.78 | ||
| 2072 | 17.48 | 13.44 | -4.04 | — | -0.84 | -0.05 | 0.79 | ||
| 2073 | 17.53 | 13.44 | -4.09 | — | -0.84 | -0.05 | 0.79 | ||
| 2074 | 17.58 | 13.45 | -4.14 | — | -0.85 | -0.05 | 0.80 | ||
| 2075 | 17.63 | 13.45 | -4.18 | — | -0.85 | -0.05 | 0.80 | ||
| 2076 | 17.67 | 13.45 | -4.21 | — | -0.86 | -0.05 | 0.80 | ||
| 2077 | 17.70 | 13.46 | -4.24 | — | -0.86 | -0.05 | 0.81 | ||
| 2078 | 17.72 | 13.46 | -4.26 | — | -0.87 | -0.05 | 0.81 | ||
| 2079 | 17.73 | 13.46 | -4.27 | — | -0.87 | -0.05 | 0.81 | ||
| 2080 | 17.72 | 13.46 | -4.26 | — | -0.87 | -0.05 | 0.82 | ||
| 2081 | 17.71 | 13.46 | -4.25 | — | -0.87 | -0.05 | 0.82 | ||
| 2082 | 17.70 | 13.46 | -4.24 | — | -0.88 | -0.05 | 0.82 | ||
| 2083 | 17.67 | 13.46 | -4.21 | — | -0.88 | -0.06 | 0.82 | ||
| 2084 | 17.64 | 13.46 | -4.18 | — | -0.88 | -0.06 | 0.82 | ||
| 2085 | 17.59 | 13.45 | -4.14 | — | -0.88 | -0.06 | 0.82 | ||
| 2086 | 17.54 | 13.45 | -4.09 | — | -0.88 | -0.06 | 0.82 | ||
| 2087 | 17.49 | 13.45 | -4.04 | — | -0.88 | -0.06 | 0.82 | ||
| 2088 | 17.43 | 13.44 | -3.98 | — | -0.88 | -0.06 | 0.82 | ||
| 2089 | 17.37 | 13.44 | -3.93 | — | -0.88 | -0.06 | 0.82 | ||
| 2090 | 17.31 | 13.44 | -3.88 | — | -0.88 | -0.06 | 0.82 | ||
| 2091 | 17.27 | 13.43 | -3.83 | — | -0.87 | -0.06 | 0.82 | ||
| 2092 | 17.23 | 13.43 | -3.80 | — | -0.87 | -0.05 | 0.82 | ||
| 2093 | 17.21 | 13.43 | -3.78 | — | -0.87 | -0.05 | 0.82 | ||
| 2094 | 17.20 | 13.43 | -3.77 | — | -0.87 | -0.05 | 0.82 | ||
| 2095 | 17.19 | 13.43 | -3.77 | — | -0.87 | -0.05 | 0.82 | ||
| 2096 | 17.20 | 13.43 | -3.78 | — | -0.87 | -0.05 | 0.82 | ||
| 2097 | 17.22 | 13.43 | -3.79 | — | -0.87 | -0.05 | 0.82 | ||
| 2098 | 17.25 | 13.43 | -3.82 | — | -0.87 | -0.05 | 0.82 | ||
| 2099 | 17.29 | 13.44 | -3.85 | — | -0.87 | -0.05 | 0.82 | ||
Summarized Estimates
| Proposal | Change from Current Law | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Years | Cost rate |
Income rate |
Actuarial balance |
Year of reserve depletion1 |
Cost rate |
Income rate |
Actuarial balance |
||
| 2024-2098 | 16.64% | 13.76% | -2.88% | 2036 | -0.66% | -0.04% | 0.62% | ||
1 Under current law, the year of Trust Fund reserve depletion is 2035. |
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Based on Intermediate Assumptions of the 2024 Trustees Report.