Description of Proposed Provision:
B1.2: Progressive price indexing (30th percentile) of PIA factors beginning with individuals newly eligible for OASDI benefits in 2024: Create a new bend point at the 30th percentile of the AIME distribution of newly retired workers. Maintain current-law benefits for earners at the 30th percentile and below. Reduce the 32 and 15 percent factors above the 30th percentile such that the initial benefit for a worker with AIME equal to the taxable maximum grows by inflation rather than the growth in the SSA average wage index.
Financial Estimates for the OASDI Trust Fund Program
| Proposal | Change from Current Law | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Expressed as a percentage of current-law taxable payroll |
Trust fund ratio as of January 1 |
Expressed as a percentage of current-law taxable payroll |
|||||||
|
Calendar year |
Cost rate |
Income rate |
Annual balance |
Cost rate |
Income rate |
Annual balance |
|||
| 2017 | 13.41 | 13.03 | -0.38 | 298 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | ||
| 2018 | 13.49 | 12.93 | -0.56 | 287 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | ||
| 2019 | 13.70 | 12.95 | -0.75 | 273 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | ||
| 2020 | 13.85 | 12.96 | -0.89 | 259 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | ||
| 2021 | 14.02 | 12.99 | -1.03 | 245 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | ||
| 2022 | 14.26 | 13.02 | -1.23 | 230 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | ||
| 2023 | 14.54 | 13.05 | -1.50 | 215 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | ||
| 2024 | 14.83 | 13.08 | -1.74 | 199 | -0.00 | -0.00 | 0.00 | ||
| 2025 | 15.10 | 13.10 | -1.99 | 182 | -0.00 | -0.00 | 0.00 | ||
| 2026 | 15.36 | 13.13 | -2.23 | 165 | -0.01 | -0.00 | 0.01 | ||
| 2027 | 15.60 | 13.15 | -2.45 | 148 | -0.01 | -0.00 | 0.01 | ||
| 2028 | 15.83 | 13.17 | -2.66 | 130 | -0.02 | -0.00 | 0.02 | ||
| 2029 | 16.03 | 13.18 | -2.85 | 113 | -0.04 | -0.00 | 0.04 | ||
| 2030 | 16.21 | 13.19 | -3.02 | 95 | -0.05 | -0.00 | 0.05 | ||
| 2031 | 16.37 | 13.20 | -3.17 | 77 | -0.08 | -0.00 | 0.07 | ||
| 2032 | 16.50 | 13.21 | -3.29 | 58 | -0.11 | -0.00 | 0.10 | ||
| 2033 | 16.60 | 13.22 | -3.38 | 39 | -0.14 | -0.01 | 0.13 | ||
| 2034 | 16.67 | 13.23 | -3.45 | 19 | -0.18 | -0.01 | 0.17 | ||
| 2035 | 16.71 | 13.23 | -3.48 | ---- | -0.22 | -0.01 | 0.21 | ||
| 2036 | 16.72 | 13.23 | -3.49 | ---- | -0.27 | -0.01 | 0.25 | ||
| 2037 | 16.71 | 13.23 | -3.47 | ---- | -0.32 | -0.02 | 0.30 | ||
| 2038 | 16.65 | 13.23 | -3.42 | ---- | -0.37 | -0.02 | 0.35 | ||
| 2039 | 16.57 | 13.23 | -3.35 | ---- | -0.42 | -0.02 | 0.40 | ||
| 2040 | 16.48 | 13.22 | -3.26 | ---- | -0.48 | -0.02 | 0.46 | ||
| 2041 | 16.37 | 13.22 | -3.15 | ---- | -0.54 | -0.03 | 0.52 | ||
| 2042 | 16.25 | 13.21 | -3.04 | ---- | -0.61 | -0.03 | 0.58 | ||
| 2043 | 16.13 | 13.21 | -2.92 | ---- | -0.68 | -0.03 | 0.64 | ||
| 2044 | 16.01 | 13.20 | -2.81 | ---- | -0.75 | -0.04 | 0.71 | ||
| 2045 | 15.90 | 13.19 | -2.70 | ---- | -0.82 | -0.04 | 0.78 | ||
| 2046 | 15.78 | 13.19 | -2.60 | ---- | -0.89 | -0.05 | 0.85 | ||
| 2047 | 15.67 | 13.18 | -2.49 | ---- | -0.97 | -0.05 | 0.92 | ||
| 2048 | 15.56 | 13.18 | -2.38 | ---- | -1.05 | -0.05 | 1.00 | ||
| 2049 | 15.45 | 13.17 | -2.28 | ---- | -1.13 | -0.06 | 1.08 | ||
| 2050 | 15.35 | 13.17 | -2.18 | ---- | -1.22 | -0.06 | 1.15 | ||
| 2051 | 15.25 | 13.16 | -2.09 | ---- | -1.30 | -0.07 | 1.23 | ||
| 2052 | 15.17 | 13.16 | -2.01 | ---- | -1.39 | -0.07 | 1.32 | ||
| 2053 | 15.09 | 13.16 | -1.93 | ---- | -1.48 | -0.08 | 1.40 | ||
| 2054 | 15.02 | 13.15 | -1.87 | ---- | -1.57 | -0.08 | 1.49 | ||
| 2055 | 14.96 | 13.15 | -1.81 | ---- | -1.66 | -0.09 | 1.58 | ||
| 2056 | 14.90 | 13.15 | -1.75 | ---- | -1.76 | -0.09 | 1.66 | ||
| 2057 | 14.85 | 13.14 | -1.70 | ---- | -1.85 | -0.10 | 1.75 | ||
| 2058 | 14.80 | 13.14 | -1.65 | ---- | -1.94 | -0.10 | 1.84 | ||
| 2059 | 14.75 | 13.14 | -1.61 | ---- | -2.04 | -0.11 | 1.93 | ||
| 2060 | 14.70 | 13.14 | -1.56 | ---- | -2.13 | -0.11 | 2.01 | ||
| 2061 | 14.66 | 13.14 | -1.52 | ---- | -2.22 | -0.12 | 2.10 | ||
| 2062 | 14.61 | 13.14 | -1.48 | ---- | -2.31 | -0.12 | 2.18 | ||
| 2063 | 14.57 | 13.13 | -1.44 | ---- | -2.40 | -0.13 | 2.27 | ||
| 2064 | 14.53 | 13.13 | -1.40 | ---- | -2.48 | -0.13 | 2.35 | ||
| 2065 | 14.49 | 13.13 | -1.36 | ---- | -2.57 | -0.14 | 2.43 | ||
| 2066 | 14.46 | 13.13 | -1.33 | ---- | -2.66 | -0.14 | 2.52 | ||
| 2067 | 14.42 | 13.13 | -1.30 | ---- | -2.75 | -0.15 | 2.60 | ||
| 2068 | 14.39 | 13.13 | -1.26 | ---- | -2.83 | -0.15 | 2.68 | ||
| 2069 | 14.36 | 13.12 | -1.23 | ---- | -2.92 | -0.16 | 2.76 | ||
| 2070 | 14.32 | 13.12 | -1.20 | ---- | -3.00 | -0.16 | 2.84 | ||
| 2071 | 14.29 | 13.12 | -1.17 | ---- | -3.09 | -0.17 | 2.92 | ||
| 2072 | 14.24 | 13.12 | -1.13 | ---- | -3.17 | -0.17 | 3.00 | ||
| 2073 | 14.20 | 13.12 | -1.08 | ---- | -3.25 | -0.18 | 3.07 | ||
| 2074 | 14.15 | 13.11 | -1.04 | ---- | -3.33 | -0.18 | 3.15 | ||
| 2075 | 14.10 | 13.11 | -0.99 | ---- | -3.40 | -0.18 | 3.22 | ||
| 2076 | 14.04 | 13.11 | -0.94 | ---- | -3.47 | -0.19 | 3.29 | ||
| 2077 | 13.98 | 13.11 | -0.87 | ---- | -3.54 | -0.19 | 3.35 | ||
| 2078 | 13.91 | 13.10 | -0.81 | ---- | -3.61 | -0.20 | 3.42 | ||
| 2079 | 13.84 | 13.10 | -0.74 | ---- | -3.68 | -0.20 | 3.48 | ||
| 2080 | 13.77 | 13.09 | -0.68 | ---- | -3.74 | -0.20 | 3.54 | ||
| 2081 | 13.70 | 13.09 | -0.61 | ---- | -3.80 | -0.21 | 3.60 | ||
| 2082 | 13.64 | 13.09 | -0.55 | ---- | -3.87 | -0.21 | 3.66 | ||
| 2083 | 13.58 | 13.08 | -0.49 | ---- | -3.93 | -0.21 | 3.72 | ||
| 2084 | 13.53 | 13.08 | -0.44 | ---- | -4.00 | -0.22 | 3.78 | ||
| 2085 | 13.48 | 13.08 | -0.40 | ---- | -4.07 | -0.22 | 3.85 | ||
| 2086 | 13.44 | 13.08 | -0.36 | ---- | -4.14 | -0.23 | 3.92 | ||
| 2087 | 13.40 | 13.07 | -0.33 | ---- | -4.21 | -0.23 | 3.98 | ||
| 2088 | 13.37 | 13.07 | -0.30 | ---- | -4.28 | -0.23 | 4.05 | ||
| 2089 | 13.34 | 13.07 | -0.27 | ---- | -4.36 | -0.24 | 4.12 | ||
| 2090 | 13.32 | 13.07 | -0.25 | ---- | -4.43 | -0.24 | 4.19 | ||
| 2091 | 13.29 | 13.07 | -0.22 | ---- | -4.50 | -0.25 | 4.26 | ||
| 2092 | 13.27 | 13.07 | -0.20 | ---- | -4.57 | -0.25 | 4.32 | ||
Summarized Estimates
| Proposal | Change from Current Law | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Years | Cost rate |
Income rate |
Actuarial balance |
Year of reserve depletion1 |
Cost rate |
Income rate |
Actuarial balance |
||
| 2017-2091 | 15.12% | 13.76% | -1.36% | 2034 | -1.54% | -0.08% | 1.46% | ||
1 Under current law, the year of Trust Fund reserve depletion is 2034. |
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Based on Intermediate Assumptions of the 2017 Trustees Report.