Description of Proposed Provision:
B1.3: Progressive price indexing (40th percentile) of PIA factors beginning with individuals newly eligible for OASDI benefits in 2024: Create a new bend point at the 40th percentile of the AIME distribution of newly retired workers. Maintain current-law benefits for earners at the 40th percentile and below. Reduce the 32 and 15 percent factors above the 40th percentile such that the initial benefit for a worker with AIME equal to the taxable maximum grows by inflation rather than the growth in the SSA average wage index.
Financial Estimates for the OASDI Trust Fund Program
Proposal | Change from Current Law | ||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Expressed as a percentage of current-law taxable payroll |
Trust fund ratio as of January 1 |
Expressed as a percentage of current-law taxable payroll |
|||||||
Calendar year |
Cost rate |
Income rate |
Annual balance |
Cost rate |
Income rate |
Annual balance |
|||
2017 | 13.41 | 13.03 | -0.38 | 298 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | ||
2018 | 13.49 | 12.93 | -0.56 | 287 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | ||
2019 | 13.70 | 12.95 | -0.75 | 273 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | ||
2020 | 13.85 | 12.96 | -0.89 | 259 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | ||
2021 | 14.02 | 12.99 | -1.03 | 245 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | ||
2022 | 14.26 | 13.02 | -1.23 | 230 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | ||
2023 | 14.54 | 13.05 | -1.50 | 215 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | ||
2024 | 14.83 | 13.08 | -1.74 | 199 | -0.00 | -0.00 | 0.00 | ||
2025 | 15.10 | 13.10 | -1.99 | 182 | -0.00 | -0.00 | 0.00 | ||
2026 | 15.37 | 13.13 | -2.23 | 165 | -0.01 | -0.00 | 0.01 | ||
2027 | 15.61 | 13.15 | -2.45 | 148 | -0.01 | -0.00 | 0.01 | ||
2028 | 15.83 | 13.17 | -2.67 | 130 | -0.02 | -0.00 | 0.02 | ||
2029 | 16.04 | 13.18 | -2.86 | 113 | -0.03 | -0.00 | 0.03 | ||
2030 | 16.22 | 13.19 | -3.03 | 95 | -0.04 | -0.00 | 0.04 | ||
2031 | 16.38 | 13.20 | -3.18 | 76 | -0.06 | -0.00 | 0.06 | ||
2032 | 16.52 | 13.21 | -3.31 | 58 | -0.09 | -0.00 | 0.08 | ||
2033 | 16.63 | 13.22 | -3.40 | 38 | -0.11 | -0.01 | 0.11 | ||
2034 | 16.70 | 13.23 | -3.47 | 19 | -0.15 | -0.01 | 0.14 | ||
2035 | 16.75 | 13.23 | -3.51 | ---- | -0.18 | -0.01 | 0.17 | ||
2036 | 16.77 | 13.23 | -3.53 | ---- | -0.22 | -0.01 | 0.21 | ||
2037 | 16.76 | 13.23 | -3.52 | ---- | -0.26 | -0.01 | 0.25 | ||
2038 | 16.71 | 13.23 | -3.48 | ---- | -0.31 | -0.02 | 0.29 | ||
2039 | 16.64 | 13.23 | -3.41 | ---- | -0.35 | -0.02 | 0.34 | ||
2040 | 16.56 | 13.23 | -3.33 | ---- | -0.40 | -0.02 | 0.38 | ||
2041 | 16.46 | 13.22 | -3.24 | ---- | -0.46 | -0.02 | 0.43 | ||
2042 | 16.35 | 13.22 | -3.13 | ---- | -0.51 | -0.03 | 0.48 | ||
2043 | 16.24 | 13.21 | -3.03 | ---- | -0.57 | -0.03 | 0.54 | ||
2044 | 16.13 | 13.21 | -2.93 | ---- | -0.63 | -0.03 | 0.59 | ||
2045 | 16.03 | 13.20 | -2.83 | ---- | -0.69 | -0.04 | 0.65 | ||
2046 | 15.93 | 13.20 | -2.73 | ---- | -0.75 | -0.04 | 0.71 | ||
2047 | 15.83 | 13.19 | -2.64 | ---- | -0.82 | -0.04 | 0.77 | ||
2048 | 15.73 | 13.19 | -2.54 | ---- | -0.89 | -0.05 | 0.84 | ||
2049 | 15.63 | 13.18 | -2.45 | ---- | -0.95 | -0.05 | 0.90 | ||
2050 | 15.54 | 13.18 | -2.36 | ---- | -1.03 | -0.05 | 0.97 | ||
2051 | 15.46 | 13.17 | -2.28 | ---- | -1.10 | -0.06 | 1.04 | ||
2052 | 15.39 | 13.17 | -2.22 | ---- | -1.17 | -0.06 | 1.11 | ||
2053 | 15.32 | 13.17 | -2.15 | ---- | -1.25 | -0.07 | 1.18 | ||
2054 | 15.27 | 13.16 | -2.10 | ---- | -1.32 | -0.07 | 1.25 | ||
2055 | 15.22 | 13.16 | -2.05 | ---- | -1.40 | -0.07 | 1.33 | ||
2056 | 15.18 | 13.16 | -2.01 | ---- | -1.48 | -0.08 | 1.40 | ||
2057 | 15.14 | 13.16 | -1.98 | ---- | -1.56 | -0.08 | 1.48 | ||
2058 | 15.10 | 13.16 | -1.94 | ---- | -1.64 | -0.09 | 1.55 | ||
2059 | 15.07 | 13.16 | -1.91 | ---- | -1.72 | -0.09 | 1.62 | ||
2060 | 15.03 | 13.16 | -1.88 | ---- | -1.79 | -0.10 | 1.70 | ||
2061 | 15.00 | 13.15 | -1.85 | ---- | -1.87 | -0.10 | 1.77 | ||
2062 | 14.97 | 13.15 | -1.82 | ---- | -1.95 | -0.11 | 1.84 | ||
2063 | 14.95 | 13.15 | -1.79 | ---- | -2.02 | -0.11 | 1.91 | ||
2064 | 14.92 | 13.15 | -1.77 | ---- | -2.10 | -0.11 | 1.98 | ||
2065 | 14.89 | 13.15 | -1.74 | ---- | -2.17 | -0.12 | 2.05 | ||
2066 | 14.87 | 13.15 | -1.72 | ---- | -2.25 | -0.12 | 2.12 | ||
2067 | 14.85 | 13.15 | -1.70 | ---- | -2.32 | -0.13 | 2.19 | ||
2068 | 14.83 | 13.15 | -1.68 | ---- | -2.39 | -0.13 | 2.26 | ||
2069 | 14.81 | 13.15 | -1.66 | ---- | -2.46 | -0.13 | 2.33 | ||
2070 | 14.79 | 13.15 | -1.64 | ---- | -2.54 | -0.14 | 2.40 | ||
2071 | 14.77 | 13.15 | -1.62 | ---- | -2.61 | -0.14 | 2.46 | ||
2072 | 14.74 | 13.14 | -1.59 | ---- | -2.68 | -0.15 | 2.53 | ||
2073 | 14.71 | 13.14 | -1.56 | ---- | -2.74 | -0.15 | 2.59 | ||
2074 | 14.67 | 13.14 | -1.53 | ---- | -2.81 | -0.15 | 2.66 | ||
2075 | 14.63 | 13.14 | -1.49 | ---- | -2.87 | -0.16 | 2.72 | ||
2076 | 14.58 | 13.14 | -1.45 | ---- | -2.94 | -0.16 | 2.77 | ||
2077 | 14.53 | 13.13 | -1.40 | ---- | -2.99 | -0.16 | 2.83 | ||
2078 | 14.47 | 13.13 | -1.34 | ---- | -3.05 | -0.17 | 2.88 | ||
2079 | 14.41 | 13.13 | -1.28 | ---- | -3.11 | -0.17 | 2.94 | ||
2080 | 14.35 | 13.12 | -1.23 | ---- | -3.16 | -0.17 | 2.99 | ||
2081 | 14.29 | 13.12 | -1.17 | ---- | -3.21 | -0.18 | 3.04 | ||
2082 | 14.24 | 13.12 | -1.12 | ---- | -3.27 | -0.18 | 3.09 | ||
2083 | 14.19 | 13.12 | -1.07 | ---- | -3.32 | -0.18 | 3.14 | ||
2084 | 14.15 | 13.11 | -1.03 | ---- | -3.38 | -0.19 | 3.20 | ||
2085 | 14.11 | 13.11 | -1.00 | ---- | -3.44 | -0.19 | 3.25 | ||
2086 | 14.08 | 13.11 | -0.97 | ---- | -3.50 | -0.19 | 3.31 | ||
2087 | 14.06 | 13.11 | -0.95 | ---- | -3.56 | -0.20 | 3.36 | ||
2088 | 14.04 | 13.11 | -0.93 | ---- | -3.62 | -0.20 | 3.42 | ||
2089 | 14.03 | 13.11 | -0.92 | ---- | -3.67 | -0.20 | 3.47 | ||
2090 | 14.02 | 13.11 | -0.91 | ---- | -3.73 | -0.20 | 3.53 | ||
2091 | 14.01 | 13.11 | -0.90 | ---- | -3.79 | -0.21 | 3.58 | ||
2092 | 14.00 | 13.11 | -0.90 | ---- | -3.84 | -0.21 | 3.63 |
Summarized Estimates
Proposal | Change from Current Law | ||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Years | Cost rate |
Income rate |
Actuarial balance |
Year of reserve depletion1 |
Cost rate |
Income rate |
Actuarial balance |
||
2017-2091 | 15.36% | 13.77% | -1.59% | 2034 | -1.30% | -0.07% | 1.23% | ||
1 Under current law, the year of Trust Fund reserve depletion is 2034. |
Based on Intermediate Assumptions of the 2017 Trustees Report.