Description of Proposed Provision:
B1.4: Progressive price indexing (50th percentile) of PIA factors beginning with individuals newly eligible for OASDI benefits in 2024: Create a new bend point at the 50th percentile of the AIME distribution of newly retired workers. Maintain current-law benefits for earners at the 50th percentile and below. Reduce the 32 and 15 percent factors above the 50th percentile such that the initial benefit for a worker with AIME equal to the taxable maximum grows by inflation rather than the growth in the SSA average wage index.
Financial Estimates for the OASDI Trust Fund Program
| Proposal | Change from Current Law | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Expressed as a percentage of current-law taxable payroll |
Trust fund ratio as of January 1 |
Expressed as a percentage of current-law taxable payroll |
|||||||
|
Calendar year |
Cost rate |
Income rate |
Annual balance |
Cost rate |
Income rate |
Annual balance |
|||
| 2017 | 13.41 | 13.03 | -0.38 | 298 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | ||
| 2018 | 13.49 | 12.93 | -0.56 | 287 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | ||
| 2019 | 13.70 | 12.95 | -0.75 | 273 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | ||
| 2020 | 13.85 | 12.96 | -0.89 | 259 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | ||
| 2021 | 14.02 | 12.99 | -1.03 | 245 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | ||
| 2022 | 14.26 | 13.02 | -1.23 | 230 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | ||
| 2023 | 14.54 | 13.05 | -1.50 | 215 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | ||
| 2024 | 14.83 | 13.08 | -1.74 | 199 | -0.00 | -0.00 | 0.00 | ||
| 2025 | 15.10 | 13.10 | -1.99 | 182 | -0.00 | -0.00 | 0.00 | ||
| 2026 | 15.37 | 13.13 | -2.23 | 165 | -0.00 | -0.00 | 0.00 | ||
| 2027 | 15.61 | 13.15 | -2.46 | 148 | -0.01 | -0.00 | 0.01 | ||
| 2028 | 15.84 | 13.17 | -2.67 | 130 | -0.01 | -0.00 | 0.01 | ||
| 2029 | 16.04 | 13.18 | -2.86 | 113 | -0.02 | -0.00 | 0.02 | ||
| 2030 | 16.23 | 13.19 | -3.04 | 95 | -0.03 | -0.00 | 0.03 | ||
| 2031 | 16.40 | 13.21 | -3.19 | 76 | -0.05 | -0.00 | 0.05 | ||
| 2032 | 16.54 | 13.21 | -3.32 | 57 | -0.07 | -0.00 | 0.07 | ||
| 2033 | 16.65 | 13.22 | -3.43 | 38 | -0.09 | -0.00 | 0.09 | ||
| 2034 | 16.73 | 13.23 | -3.50 | 18 | -0.12 | -0.01 | 0.11 | ||
| 2035 | 16.78 | 13.23 | -3.55 | ---- | -0.15 | -0.01 | 0.14 | ||
| 2036 | 16.81 | 13.24 | -3.57 | ---- | -0.18 | -0.01 | 0.17 | ||
| 2037 | 16.81 | 13.24 | -3.57 | ---- | -0.21 | -0.01 | 0.20 | ||
| 2038 | 16.77 | 13.24 | -3.54 | ---- | -0.25 | -0.01 | 0.24 | ||
| 2039 | 16.71 | 13.23 | -3.48 | ---- | -0.29 | -0.01 | 0.27 | ||
| 2040 | 16.63 | 13.23 | -3.40 | ---- | -0.33 | -0.02 | 0.31 | ||
| 2041 | 16.54 | 13.23 | -3.32 | ---- | -0.37 | -0.02 | 0.35 | ||
| 2042 | 16.44 | 13.22 | -3.22 | ---- | -0.42 | -0.02 | 0.40 | ||
| 2043 | 16.34 | 13.22 | -3.13 | ---- | -0.46 | -0.02 | 0.44 | ||
| 2044 | 16.25 | 13.21 | -3.03 | ---- | -0.51 | -0.03 | 0.49 | ||
| 2045 | 16.16 | 13.21 | -2.95 | ---- | -0.56 | -0.03 | 0.53 | ||
| 2046 | 16.06 | 13.20 | -2.86 | ---- | -0.62 | -0.03 | 0.58 | ||
| 2047 | 15.98 | 13.20 | -2.78 | ---- | -0.67 | -0.04 | 0.63 | ||
| 2048 | 15.89 | 13.19 | -2.70 | ---- | -0.73 | -0.04 | 0.69 | ||
| 2049 | 15.81 | 13.19 | -2.62 | ---- | -0.78 | -0.04 | 0.74 | ||
| 2050 | 15.73 | 13.19 | -2.54 | ---- | -0.84 | -0.04 | 0.80 | ||
| 2051 | 15.66 | 13.18 | -2.47 | ---- | -0.90 | -0.05 | 0.85 | ||
| 2052 | 15.60 | 13.18 | -2.41 | ---- | -0.96 | -0.05 | 0.91 | ||
| 2053 | 15.55 | 13.18 | -2.37 | ---- | -1.02 | -0.05 | 0.97 | ||
| 2054 | 15.50 | 13.18 | -2.33 | ---- | -1.09 | -0.06 | 1.03 | ||
| 2055 | 15.47 | 13.18 | -2.29 | ---- | -1.15 | -0.06 | 1.09 | ||
| 2056 | 15.44 | 13.17 | -2.27 | ---- | -1.22 | -0.07 | 1.15 | ||
| 2057 | 15.42 | 13.17 | -2.24 | ---- | -1.28 | -0.07 | 1.21 | ||
| 2058 | 15.39 | 13.17 | -2.22 | ---- | -1.35 | -0.07 | 1.27 | ||
| 2059 | 15.37 | 13.17 | -2.20 | ---- | -1.41 | -0.08 | 1.33 | ||
| 2060 | 15.35 | 13.17 | -2.18 | ---- | -1.47 | -0.08 | 1.39 | ||
| 2061 | 15.34 | 13.17 | -2.16 | ---- | -1.54 | -0.08 | 1.45 | ||
| 2062 | 15.32 | 13.17 | -2.15 | ---- | -1.60 | -0.09 | 1.51 | ||
| 2063 | 15.31 | 13.17 | -2.14 | ---- | -1.66 | -0.09 | 1.57 | ||
| 2064 | 15.29 | 13.17 | -2.12 | ---- | -1.72 | -0.09 | 1.63 | ||
| 2065 | 15.28 | 13.17 | -2.11 | ---- | -1.79 | -0.10 | 1.69 | ||
| 2066 | 15.27 | 13.17 | -2.10 | ---- | -1.85 | -0.10 | 1.75 | ||
| 2067 | 15.26 | 13.17 | -2.09 | ---- | -1.91 | -0.10 | 1.80 | ||
| 2068 | 15.25 | 13.17 | -2.08 | ---- | -1.97 | -0.11 | 1.86 | ||
| 2069 | 15.25 | 13.17 | -2.08 | ---- | -2.03 | -0.11 | 1.92 | ||
| 2070 | 15.24 | 13.17 | -2.07 | ---- | -2.09 | -0.11 | 1.97 | ||
| 2071 | 15.23 | 13.17 | -2.06 | ---- | -2.14 | -0.12 | 2.03 | ||
| 2072 | 15.21 | 13.17 | -2.04 | ---- | -2.20 | -0.12 | 2.08 | ||
| 2073 | 15.19 | 13.17 | -2.02 | ---- | -2.26 | -0.12 | 2.13 | ||
| 2074 | 15.17 | 13.17 | -2.00 | ---- | -2.31 | -0.13 | 2.18 | ||
| 2075 | 15.14 | 13.17 | -1.98 | ---- | -2.36 | -0.13 | 2.23 | ||
| 2076 | 15.11 | 13.17 | -1.95 | ---- | -2.41 | -0.13 | 2.27 | ||
| 2077 | 15.07 | 13.16 | -1.91 | ---- | -2.45 | -0.14 | 2.32 | ||
| 2078 | 15.03 | 13.16 | -1.87 | ---- | -2.49 | -0.14 | 2.35 | ||
| 2079 | 14.99 | 13.16 | -1.83 | ---- | -2.53 | -0.14 | 2.39 | ||
| 2080 | 14.95 | 13.16 | -1.79 | ---- | -2.57 | -0.14 | 2.42 | ||
| 2081 | 14.91 | 13.15 | -1.75 | ---- | -2.60 | -0.14 | 2.46 | ||
| 2082 | 14.87 | 13.15 | -1.72 | ---- | -2.63 | -0.15 | 2.49 | ||
| 2083 | 14.85 | 13.15 | -1.70 | ---- | -2.66 | -0.15 | 2.52 | ||
| 2084 | 14.83 | 13.15 | -1.69 | ---- | -2.69 | -0.15 | 2.54 | ||
| 2085 | 14.83 | 13.15 | -1.68 | ---- | -2.72 | -0.15 | 2.57 | ||
| 2086 | 14.83 | 13.15 | -1.68 | ---- | -2.75 | -0.15 | 2.60 | ||
| 2087 | 14.84 | 13.15 | -1.69 | ---- | -2.78 | -0.15 | 2.63 | ||
| 2088 | 14.85 | 13.15 | -1.70 | ---- | -2.81 | -0.16 | 2.65 | ||
| 2089 | 14.87 | 13.15 | -1.72 | ---- | -2.83 | -0.16 | 2.68 | ||
| 2090 | 14.89 | 13.15 | -1.74 | ---- | -2.86 | -0.16 | 2.70 | ||
| 2091 | 14.91 | 13.15 | -1.76 | ---- | -2.88 | -0.16 | 2.72 | ||
| 2092 | 14.94 | 13.16 | -1.78 | ---- | -2.90 | -0.16 | 2.74 | ||
Summarized Estimates
| Proposal | Change from Current Law | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Years | Cost rate |
Income rate |
Actuarial balance |
Year of reserve depletion1 |
Cost rate |
Income rate |
Actuarial balance |
||
| 2017-2091 | 15.61% | 13.78% | -1.83% | 2034 | -1.05% | -0.06% | 1.00% | ||
1 Under current law, the year of Trust Fund reserve depletion is 2034. |
|||||||||
Based on Intermediate Assumptions of the 2017 Trustees Report.