Description of Proposed Provision:
A3: Starting December 2018, compute the COLA using a chained version of the consumer price index for wage and salary workers (CPI-W). We estimate this new computation will reduce the annual COLA by about 0.3 percentage point, on average.
Financial Estimates for the OASDI Trust Fund Program
| Proposal | Change from Current Law | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Expressed as a percentage of current-law taxable payroll |
Trust fund ratio as of January 1 |
Expressed as a percentage of current-law taxable payroll |
|||||||
|
Calendar year |
Cost rate |
Income rate |
Annual balance |
Cost rate |
Income rate |
Annual balance |
|||
| 2017 | 13.41 | 13.03 | -0.38 | 298 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | ||
| 2018 | 13.49 | 12.93 | -0.56 | 287 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | ||
| 2019 | 13.66 | 12.94 | -0.72 | 274 | -0.04 | -0.00 | 0.04 | ||
| 2020 | 13.78 | 12.96 | -0.82 | 260 | -0.08 | -0.00 | 0.08 | ||
| 2021 | 13.90 | 12.99 | -0.91 | 248 | -0.12 | -0.01 | 0.11 | ||
| 2022 | 14.10 | 13.02 | -1.08 | 234 | -0.16 | -0.01 | 0.15 | ||
| 2023 | 14.35 | 13.04 | -1.31 | 220 | -0.20 | -0.01 | 0.19 | ||
| 2024 | 14.59 | 13.07 | -1.52 | 206 | -0.24 | -0.01 | 0.23 | ||
| 2025 | 14.82 | 13.09 | -1.73 | 191 | -0.28 | -0.01 | 0.26 | ||
| 2026 | 15.06 | 13.12 | -1.94 | 175 | -0.31 | -0.02 | 0.30 | ||
| 2027 | 15.27 | 13.13 | -2.13 | 160 | -0.35 | -0.02 | 0.33 | ||
| 2028 | 15.47 | 13.15 | -2.32 | 144 | -0.38 | -0.02 | 0.36 | ||
| 2029 | 15.65 | 13.16 | -2.49 | 128 | -0.42 | -0.02 | 0.40 | ||
| 2030 | 15.82 | 13.17 | -2.64 | 112 | -0.45 | -0.02 | 0.43 | ||
| 2031 | 15.97 | 13.18 | -2.78 | 95 | -0.48 | -0.03 | 0.46 | ||
| 2032 | 16.10 | 13.19 | -2.90 | 79 | -0.51 | -0.03 | 0.48 | ||
| 2033 | 16.20 | 13.20 | -3.00 | 61 | -0.54 | -0.03 | 0.51 | ||
| 2034 | 16.29 | 13.20 | -3.08 | 44 | -0.56 | -0.03 | 0.53 | ||
| 2035 | 16.34 | 13.21 | -3.13 | 26 | -0.58 | -0.03 | 0.55 | ||
| 2036 | 16.38 | 13.21 | -3.17 | 7 | -0.61 | -0.03 | 0.57 | ||
| 2037 | 16.40 | 13.21 | -3.18 | ---- | -0.62 | -0.03 | 0.59 | ||
| 2038 | 16.38 | 13.21 | -3.17 | ---- | -0.64 | -0.03 | 0.61 | ||
| 2039 | 16.34 | 13.21 | -3.13 | ---- | -0.65 | -0.03 | 0.62 | ||
| 2040 | 16.29 | 13.21 | -3.08 | ---- | -0.67 | -0.04 | 0.63 | ||
| 2041 | 16.24 | 13.21 | -3.03 | ---- | -0.68 | -0.04 | 0.64 | ||
| 2042 | 16.17 | 13.21 | -2.97 | ---- | -0.69 | -0.04 | 0.65 | ||
| 2043 | 16.11 | 13.20 | -2.91 | ---- | -0.69 | -0.04 | 0.66 | ||
| 2044 | 16.06 | 13.20 | -2.86 | ---- | -0.70 | -0.04 | 0.66 | ||
| 2045 | 16.01 | 13.20 | -2.82 | ---- | -0.70 | -0.04 | 0.67 | ||
| 2046 | 15.97 | 13.20 | -2.78 | ---- | -0.71 | -0.04 | 0.67 | ||
| 2047 | 15.94 | 13.20 | -2.74 | ---- | -0.71 | -0.04 | 0.67 | ||
| 2048 | 15.91 | 13.19 | -2.71 | ---- | -0.71 | -0.04 | 0.67 | ||
| 2049 | 15.88 | 13.19 | -2.68 | ---- | -0.71 | -0.04 | 0.67 | ||
| 2050 | 15.86 | 13.19 | -2.66 | ---- | -0.71 | -0.04 | 0.67 | ||
| 2051 | 15.84 | 13.19 | -2.65 | ---- | -0.71 | -0.04 | 0.67 | ||
| 2052 | 15.84 | 13.19 | -2.65 | ---- | -0.71 | -0.04 | 0.67 | ||
| 2053 | 15.86 | 13.20 | -2.66 | ---- | -0.71 | -0.04 | 0.67 | ||
| 2054 | 15.88 | 13.20 | -2.68 | ---- | -0.71 | -0.04 | 0.67 | ||
| 2055 | 15.91 | 13.20 | -2.71 | ---- | -0.71 | -0.04 | 0.68 | ||
| 2056 | 15.94 | 13.20 | -2.74 | ---- | -0.71 | -0.04 | 0.68 | ||
| 2057 | 15.98 | 13.20 | -2.78 | ---- | -0.72 | -0.04 | 0.68 | ||
| 2058 | 16.02 | 13.21 | -2.81 | ---- | -0.72 | -0.04 | 0.68 | ||
| 2059 | 16.06 | 13.21 | -2.85 | ---- | -0.72 | -0.04 | 0.68 | ||
| 2060 | 16.11 | 13.21 | -2.89 | ---- | -0.72 | -0.04 | 0.68 | ||
| 2061 | 16.15 | 13.22 | -2.93 | ---- | -0.72 | -0.04 | 0.69 | ||
| 2062 | 16.19 | 13.22 | -2.97 | ---- | -0.73 | -0.04 | 0.69 | ||
| 2063 | 16.24 | 13.22 | -3.02 | ---- | -0.73 | -0.04 | 0.69 | ||
| 2064 | 16.28 | 13.23 | -3.06 | ---- | -0.73 | -0.04 | 0.70 | ||
| 2065 | 16.33 | 13.23 | -3.10 | ---- | -0.74 | -0.04 | 0.70 | ||
| 2066 | 16.37 | 13.23 | -3.14 | ---- | -0.74 | -0.04 | 0.70 | ||
| 2067 | 16.42 | 13.23 | -3.19 | ---- | -0.75 | -0.04 | 0.71 | ||
| 2068 | 16.47 | 13.24 | -3.23 | ---- | -0.75 | -0.04 | 0.71 | ||
| 2069 | 16.52 | 13.24 | -3.28 | ---- | -0.75 | -0.04 | 0.71 | ||
| 2070 | 16.57 | 13.24 | -3.32 | ---- | -0.76 | -0.04 | 0.72 | ||
| 2071 | 16.61 | 13.25 | -3.36 | ---- | -0.76 | -0.04 | 0.72 | ||
| 2072 | 16.65 | 13.25 | -3.40 | ---- | -0.77 | -0.04 | 0.73 | ||
| 2073 | 16.68 | 13.25 | -3.43 | ---- | -0.77 | -0.04 | 0.73 | ||
| 2074 | 16.70 | 13.25 | -3.45 | ---- | -0.77 | -0.04 | 0.73 | ||
| 2075 | 16.73 | 13.25 | -3.47 | ---- | -0.78 | -0.04 | 0.74 | ||
| 2076 | 16.74 | 13.26 | -3.48 | ---- | -0.78 | -0.04 | 0.74 | ||
| 2077 | 16.74 | 13.26 | -3.48 | ---- | -0.78 | -0.04 | 0.74 | ||
| 2078 | 16.74 | 13.26 | -3.48 | ---- | -0.79 | -0.04 | 0.74 | ||
| 2079 | 16.73 | 13.26 | -3.47 | ---- | -0.79 | -0.04 | 0.75 | ||
| 2080 | 16.72 | 13.25 | -3.46 | ---- | -0.79 | -0.04 | 0.75 | ||
| 2081 | 16.71 | 13.25 | -3.46 | ---- | -0.79 | -0.04 | 0.75 | ||
| 2082 | 16.71 | 13.25 | -3.46 | ---- | -0.79 | -0.04 | 0.75 | ||
| 2083 | 16.72 | 13.25 | -3.46 | ---- | -0.80 | -0.04 | 0.75 | ||
| 2084 | 16.73 | 13.25 | -3.48 | ---- | -0.80 | -0.04 | 0.75 | ||
| 2085 | 16.75 | 13.26 | -3.50 | ---- | -0.80 | -0.04 | 0.76 | ||
| 2086 | 16.78 | 13.26 | -3.52 | ---- | -0.80 | -0.04 | 0.76 | ||
| 2087 | 16.81 | 13.26 | -3.56 | ---- | -0.80 | -0.04 | 0.76 | ||
| 2088 | 16.85 | 13.26 | -3.59 | ---- | -0.80 | -0.04 | 0.76 | ||
| 2089 | 16.90 | 13.26 | -3.63 | ---- | -0.81 | -0.04 | 0.76 | ||
| 2090 | 16.94 | 13.27 | -3.67 | ---- | -0.81 | -0.04 | 0.76 | ||
| 2091 | 16.99 | 13.27 | -3.72 | ---- | -0.81 | -0.04 | 0.77 | ||
| 2092 | 17.03 | 13.27 | -3.76 | ---- | -0.81 | -0.04 | 0.77 | ||
Summarized Estimates
| Proposal | Change from Current Law | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Years | Cost rate |
Income rate |
Actuarial balance |
Year of reserve depletion1 |
Cost rate |
Income rate |
Actuarial balance |
||
| 2017-2091 | 16.06% | 13.81% | -2.26% | 2036 | -0.60% | -0.03% | 0.57% | ||
1 Under current law, the year of Trust Fund reserve depletion is 2034. |
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Based on Intermediate Assumptions of the 2017 Trustees Report.