Description of Proposed Provision:
B3.8: Beginning with those newly eligible for OASDI benefits in 2024, create a new bend point at the 50th percentile of the AIME distribution of newly retired workers and gradually reduce all PIA factors except for the 90 percent factor. By 2057: a) the 32 percent PIA factor below the new bend point reduces to 30 percent; b) the 32 percent PIA factor above the new bend point reduces to 10 percent; and c) the 15 percent PIA factor reduces to 5 percent.
Financial Estimates for the OASDI Trust Fund Program
| Proposal | Change from Current Law | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Expressed as a percentage of current-law taxable payroll |
Trust fund ratio as of January 1 |
Expressed as a percentage of current-law taxable payroll |
|||||||
|
Calendar year |
Cost rate |
Income rate |
Annual balance |
Cost rate |
Income rate |
Annual balance |
|||
| 2017 | 13.41 | 13.03 | -0.38 | 298 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | ||
| 2018 | 13.49 | 12.93 | -0.56 | 287 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | ||
| 2019 | 13.70 | 12.95 | -0.75 | 273 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | ||
| 2020 | 13.85 | 12.96 | -0.89 | 259 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | ||
| 2021 | 14.02 | 12.99 | -1.03 | 245 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | ||
| 2022 | 14.26 | 13.02 | -1.23 | 230 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | ||
| 2023 | 14.54 | 13.05 | -1.50 | 215 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | ||
| 2024 | 14.83 | 13.08 | -1.74 | 199 | -0.00 | -0.00 | 0.00 | ||
| 2025 | 15.10 | 13.10 | -1.99 | 182 | -0.00 | -0.00 | 0.00 | ||
| 2026 | 15.37 | 13.13 | -2.23 | 165 | -0.00 | -0.00 | 0.00 | ||
| 2027 | 15.61 | 13.15 | -2.46 | 148 | -0.01 | -0.00 | 0.01 | ||
| 2028 | 15.84 | 13.17 | -2.67 | 130 | -0.01 | -0.00 | 0.01 | ||
| 2029 | 16.04 | 13.18 | -2.86 | 113 | -0.02 | -0.00 | 0.02 | ||
| 2030 | 16.23 | 13.19 | -3.04 | 94 | -0.03 | -0.00 | 0.03 | ||
| 2031 | 16.40 | 13.21 | -3.20 | 76 | -0.05 | -0.00 | 0.04 | ||
| 2032 | 16.54 | 13.22 | -3.33 | 57 | -0.06 | -0.00 | 0.06 | ||
| 2033 | 16.66 | 13.22 | -3.43 | 38 | -0.08 | -0.00 | 0.08 | ||
| 2034 | 16.74 | 13.23 | -3.51 | 18 | -0.11 | -0.01 | 0.10 | ||
| 2035 | 16.79 | 13.23 | -3.56 | ---- | -0.13 | -0.01 | 0.13 | ||
| 2036 | 16.83 | 13.24 | -3.59 | ---- | -0.16 | -0.01 | 0.15 | ||
| 2037 | 16.83 | 13.24 | -3.59 | ---- | -0.19 | -0.01 | 0.18 | ||
| 2038 | 16.79 | 13.24 | -3.56 | ---- | -0.23 | -0.01 | 0.22 | ||
| 2039 | 16.73 | 13.24 | -3.50 | ---- | -0.26 | -0.01 | 0.25 | ||
| 2040 | 16.66 | 13.23 | -3.43 | ---- | -0.30 | -0.02 | 0.29 | ||
| 2041 | 16.57 | 13.23 | -3.34 | ---- | -0.34 | -0.02 | 0.32 | ||
| 2042 | 16.48 | 13.22 | -3.25 | ---- | -0.38 | -0.02 | 0.36 | ||
| 2043 | 16.38 | 13.22 | -3.16 | ---- | -0.43 | -0.02 | 0.41 | ||
| 2044 | 16.28 | 13.21 | -3.07 | ---- | -0.48 | -0.02 | 0.45 | ||
| 2045 | 16.19 | 13.21 | -2.98 | ---- | -0.52 | -0.03 | 0.50 | ||
| 2046 | 16.10 | 13.21 | -2.90 | ---- | -0.58 | -0.03 | 0.55 | ||
| 2047 | 16.02 | 13.20 | -2.82 | ---- | -0.63 | -0.03 | 0.60 | ||
| 2048 | 15.93 | 13.20 | -2.73 | ---- | -0.68 | -0.04 | 0.65 | ||
| 2049 | 15.85 | 13.19 | -2.65 | ---- | -0.74 | -0.04 | 0.70 | ||
| 2050 | 15.77 | 13.19 | -2.58 | ---- | -0.80 | -0.04 | 0.76 | ||
| 2051 | 15.70 | 13.19 | -2.51 | ---- | -0.86 | -0.05 | 0.81 | ||
| 2052 | 15.63 | 13.18 | -2.45 | ---- | -0.92 | -0.05 | 0.87 | ||
| 2053 | 15.58 | 13.18 | -2.40 | ---- | -0.99 | -0.05 | 0.93 | ||
| 2054 | 15.54 | 13.18 | -2.36 | ---- | -1.05 | -0.06 | 1.00 | ||
| 2055 | 15.50 | 13.18 | -2.32 | ---- | -1.12 | -0.06 | 1.06 | ||
| 2056 | 15.47 | 13.18 | -2.29 | ---- | -1.19 | -0.06 | 1.12 | ||
| 2057 | 15.44 | 13.18 | -2.26 | ---- | -1.26 | -0.07 | 1.19 | ||
| 2058 | 15.41 | 13.18 | -2.24 | ---- | -1.33 | -0.07 | 1.26 | ||
| 2059 | 15.39 | 13.17 | -2.21 | ---- | -1.40 | -0.07 | 1.32 | ||
| 2060 | 15.36 | 13.17 | -2.19 | ---- | -1.47 | -0.08 | 1.39 | ||
| 2061 | 15.34 | 13.17 | -2.17 | ---- | -1.53 | -0.08 | 1.45 | ||
| 2062 | 15.32 | 13.17 | -2.15 | ---- | -1.60 | -0.09 | 1.51 | ||
| 2063 | 15.31 | 13.17 | -2.14 | ---- | -1.66 | -0.09 | 1.57 | ||
| 2064 | 15.29 | 13.17 | -2.12 | ---- | -1.72 | -0.09 | 1.63 | ||
| 2065 | 15.29 | 13.17 | -2.11 | ---- | -1.78 | -0.10 | 1.68 | ||
| 2066 | 15.28 | 13.17 | -2.11 | ---- | -1.84 | -0.10 | 1.74 | ||
| 2067 | 15.28 | 13.17 | -2.11 | ---- | -1.89 | -0.10 | 1.79 | ||
| 2068 | 15.28 | 13.17 | -2.11 | ---- | -1.94 | -0.11 | 1.84 | ||
| 2069 | 15.29 | 13.17 | -2.11 | ---- | -1.99 | -0.11 | 1.88 | ||
| 2070 | 15.29 | 13.17 | -2.12 | ---- | -2.03 | -0.11 | 1.92 | ||
| 2071 | 15.30 | 13.17 | -2.12 | ---- | -2.08 | -0.11 | 1.96 | ||
| 2072 | 15.30 | 13.17 | -2.12 | ---- | -2.11 | -0.12 | 2.00 | ||
| 2073 | 15.30 | 13.18 | -2.12 | ---- | -2.15 | -0.12 | 2.03 | ||
| 2074 | 15.30 | 13.18 | -2.12 | ---- | -2.18 | -0.12 | 2.06 | ||
| 2075 | 15.29 | 13.18 | -2.12 | ---- | -2.21 | -0.12 | 2.09 | ||
| 2076 | 15.28 | 13.18 | -2.11 | ---- | -2.24 | -0.12 | 2.12 | ||
| 2077 | 15.26 | 13.17 | -2.09 | ---- | -2.26 | -0.12 | 2.14 | ||
| 2078 | 15.24 | 13.17 | -2.07 | ---- | -2.28 | -0.13 | 2.16 | ||
| 2079 | 15.22 | 13.17 | -2.05 | ---- | -2.30 | -0.13 | 2.17 | ||
| 2080 | 15.20 | 13.17 | -2.03 | ---- | -2.31 | -0.13 | 2.19 | ||
| 2081 | 15.18 | 13.17 | -2.01 | ---- | -2.33 | -0.13 | 2.20 | ||
| 2082 | 15.17 | 13.17 | -2.00 | ---- | -2.34 | -0.13 | 2.21 | ||
| 2083 | 15.16 | 13.17 | -1.99 | ---- | -2.35 | -0.13 | 2.22 | ||
| 2084 | 15.17 | 13.17 | -2.00 | ---- | -2.36 | -0.13 | 2.23 | ||
| 2085 | 15.18 | 13.17 | -2.01 | ---- | -2.37 | -0.13 | 2.24 | ||
| 2086 | 15.20 | 13.17 | -2.03 | ---- | -2.38 | -0.13 | 2.25 | ||
| 2087 | 15.22 | 13.17 | -2.05 | ---- | -2.39 | -0.13 | 2.26 | ||
| 2088 | 15.25 | 13.17 | -2.08 | ---- | -2.40 | -0.13 | 2.27 | ||
| 2089 | 15.29 | 13.18 | -2.11 | ---- | -2.41 | -0.13 | 2.28 | ||
| 2090 | 15.32 | 13.18 | -2.15 | ---- | -2.42 | -0.13 | 2.29 | ||
| 2091 | 15.36 | 13.18 | -2.18 | ---- | -2.43 | -0.13 | 2.30 | ||
| 2092 | 15.40 | 13.18 | -2.22 | ---- | -2.44 | -0.13 | 2.31 | ||
Summarized Estimates
| Proposal | Change from Current Law | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Years | Cost rate |
Income rate |
Actuarial balance |
Year of reserve depletion1 |
Cost rate |
Income rate |
Actuarial balance |
||
| 2017-2091 | 15.69% | 13.79% | -1.90% | 2034 | -0.98% | -0.05% | 0.93% | ||
1 Under current law, the year of Trust Fund reserve depletion is 2034. |
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Based on Intermediate Assumptions of the 2017 Trustees Report.