Description of Proposed Provision:
B3.6: Progressive indexing (30th percentile) of PIA factors beginning with individuals newly eligible for OASI benefits in 2020, continuing through 2069: Create a new bend point at the 30th percentile of the AIME distribution of newly retired workers. Maintain current-law benefits for earners at the 30th percentile and below. Reduce the 32 and 15 percent factors above the 30th percentile such that the initial benefit for a worker with AIME equal to the taxable maximum is reduced by 1.20 percent per year as compared to current law (for the years that progressive indexing applies). Disabled workers are: (a) not affected prior to normal retirement age; and (b) subject to a proportional reduction in benefits, based on the worker's years of disability, upon conversion to retired-worker beneficiary status.
Financial Estimates for the OASDI Trust Fund Program
| Proposal | Change from Current Law | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Expressed as a percentage of current-law taxable payroll |
Trust fund ratio as of January 1 |
Expressed as a percentage of current-law taxable payroll |
|||||||
|
Calendar year |
Cost rate |
Income rate |
Annual balance |
Cost rate |
Income rate |
Annual balance |
|||
| 2017 | 13.41 | 13.03 | -0.38 | 298 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | ||
| 2018 | 13.49 | 12.93 | -0.56 | 287 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | ||
| 2019 | 13.70 | 12.95 | -0.75 | 273 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | ||
| 2020 | 13.85 | 12.96 | -0.89 | 259 | -0.00 | -0.00 | 0.00 | ||
| 2021 | 14.01 | 12.99 | -1.02 | 245 | -0.00 | -0.00 | 0.00 | ||
| 2022 | 14.25 | 13.02 | -1.23 | 230 | -0.00 | -0.00 | 0.00 | ||
| 2023 | 14.53 | 13.05 | -1.49 | 215 | -0.01 | -0.00 | 0.01 | ||
| 2024 | 14.81 | 13.08 | -1.73 | 199 | -0.02 | -0.00 | 0.02 | ||
| 2025 | 15.07 | 13.10 | -1.97 | 183 | -0.03 | -0.00 | 0.03 | ||
| 2026 | 15.33 | 13.13 | -2.20 | 166 | -0.04 | -0.00 | 0.04 | ||
| 2027 | 15.56 | 13.15 | -2.41 | 149 | -0.06 | -0.00 | 0.06 | ||
| 2028 | 15.77 | 13.16 | -2.61 | 132 | -0.08 | -0.00 | 0.08 | ||
| 2029 | 15.96 | 13.18 | -2.78 | 114 | -0.11 | -0.01 | 0.10 | ||
| 2030 | 16.12 | 13.19 | -2.94 | 97 | -0.14 | -0.01 | 0.13 | ||
| 2031 | 16.27 | 13.20 | -3.07 | 79 | -0.18 | -0.01 | 0.17 | ||
| 2032 | 16.39 | 13.21 | -3.18 | 61 | -0.22 | -0.01 | 0.21 | ||
| 2033 | 16.48 | 13.21 | -3.27 | 42 | -0.26 | -0.01 | 0.25 | ||
| 2034 | 16.54 | 13.22 | -3.32 | 23 | -0.31 | -0.02 | 0.29 | ||
| 2035 | 16.57 | 13.22 | -3.35 | 4 | -0.36 | -0.02 | 0.34 | ||
| 2036 | 16.58 | 13.22 | -3.36 | ---- | -0.41 | -0.02 | 0.38 | ||
| 2037 | 16.56 | 13.22 | -3.34 | ---- | -0.46 | -0.03 | 0.44 | ||
| 2038 | 16.51 | 13.22 | -3.29 | ---- | -0.52 | -0.03 | 0.49 | ||
| 2039 | 16.42 | 13.22 | -3.21 | ---- | -0.57 | -0.03 | 0.54 | ||
| 2040 | 16.33 | 13.21 | -3.12 | ---- | -0.63 | -0.04 | 0.60 | ||
| 2041 | 16.23 | 13.21 | -3.02 | ---- | -0.69 | -0.04 | 0.65 | ||
| 2042 | 16.11 | 13.20 | -2.91 | ---- | -0.75 | -0.04 | 0.71 | ||
| 2043 | 15.99 | 13.19 | -2.80 | ---- | -0.81 | -0.05 | 0.77 | ||
| 2044 | 15.88 | 13.19 | -2.69 | ---- | -0.88 | -0.05 | 0.83 | ||
| 2045 | 15.77 | 13.18 | -2.59 | ---- | -0.95 | -0.05 | 0.89 | ||
| 2046 | 15.66 | 13.18 | -2.49 | ---- | -1.01 | -0.06 | 0.96 | ||
| 2047 | 15.56 | 13.17 | -2.39 | ---- | -1.09 | -0.06 | 1.02 | ||
| 2048 | 15.46 | 13.17 | -2.29 | ---- | -1.16 | -0.07 | 1.09 | ||
| 2049 | 15.36 | 13.16 | -2.20 | ---- | -1.23 | -0.07 | 1.16 | ||
| 2050 | 15.26 | 13.16 | -2.10 | ---- | -1.30 | -0.07 | 1.23 | ||
| 2051 | 15.18 | 13.15 | -2.02 | ---- | -1.38 | -0.08 | 1.30 | ||
| 2052 | 15.10 | 13.15 | -1.95 | ---- | -1.46 | -0.08 | 1.37 | ||
| 2053 | 15.03 | 13.15 | -1.89 | ---- | -1.53 | -0.09 | 1.45 | ||
| 2054 | 14.98 | 13.14 | -1.83 | ---- | -1.61 | -0.09 | 1.52 | ||
| 2055 | 14.93 | 13.14 | -1.78 | ---- | -1.69 | -0.10 | 1.60 | ||
| 2056 | 14.88 | 13.14 | -1.74 | ---- | -1.77 | -0.10 | 1.67 | ||
| 2057 | 14.84 | 13.14 | -1.70 | ---- | -1.86 | -0.11 | 1.75 | ||
| 2058 | 14.80 | 13.14 | -1.67 | ---- | -1.94 | -0.11 | 1.83 | ||
| 2059 | 14.77 | 13.13 | -1.63 | ---- | -2.02 | -0.11 | 1.90 | ||
| 2060 | 14.73 | 13.13 | -1.60 | ---- | -2.09 | -0.12 | 1.98 | ||
| 2061 | 14.70 | 13.13 | -1.57 | ---- | -2.17 | -0.12 | 2.05 | ||
| 2062 | 14.67 | 13.13 | -1.54 | ---- | -2.25 | -0.13 | 2.12 | ||
| 2063 | 14.64 | 13.13 | -1.51 | ---- | -2.33 | -0.13 | 2.19 | ||
| 2064 | 14.62 | 13.13 | -1.49 | ---- | -2.40 | -0.14 | 2.26 | ||
| 2065 | 14.59 | 13.13 | -1.46 | ---- | -2.48 | -0.14 | 2.34 | ||
| 2066 | 14.56 | 13.13 | -1.44 | ---- | -2.55 | -0.15 | 2.41 | ||
| 2067 | 14.54 | 13.12 | -1.42 | ---- | -2.63 | -0.15 | 2.48 | ||
| 2068 | 14.52 | 13.12 | -1.39 | ---- | -2.70 | -0.15 | 2.55 | ||
| 2069 | 14.50 | 13.12 | -1.37 | ---- | -2.78 | -0.16 | 2.62 | ||
| 2070 | 14.47 | 13.12 | -1.35 | ---- | -2.85 | -0.16 | 2.69 | ||
| 2071 | 14.45 | 13.12 | -1.33 | ---- | -2.92 | -0.17 | 2.76 | ||
| 2072 | 14.42 | 13.12 | -1.30 | ---- | -2.99 | -0.17 | 2.82 | ||
| 2073 | 14.39 | 13.12 | -1.27 | ---- | -3.06 | -0.18 | 2.89 | ||
| 2074 | 14.35 | 13.12 | -1.23 | ---- | -3.13 | -0.18 | 2.95 | ||
| 2075 | 14.31 | 13.11 | -1.20 | ---- | -3.19 | -0.18 | 3.01 | ||
| 2076 | 14.27 | 13.11 | -1.16 | ---- | -3.25 | -0.19 | 3.06 | ||
| 2077 | 14.22 | 13.11 | -1.11 | ---- | -3.30 | -0.19 | 3.11 | ||
| 2078 | 14.17 | 13.11 | -1.07 | ---- | -3.35 | -0.19 | 3.16 | ||
| 2079 | 14.13 | 13.10 | -1.02 | ---- | -3.39 | -0.19 | 3.20 | ||
| 2080 | 14.08 | 13.10 | -0.98 | ---- | -3.43 | -0.20 | 3.23 | ||
| 2081 | 14.04 | 13.10 | -0.94 | ---- | -3.47 | -0.20 | 3.27 | ||
| 2082 | 14.00 | 13.10 | -0.91 | ---- | -3.50 | -0.20 | 3.30 | ||
| 2083 | 13.98 | 13.09 | -0.88 | ---- | -3.54 | -0.20 | 3.33 | ||
| 2084 | 13.96 | 13.09 | -0.86 | ---- | -3.57 | -0.20 | 3.37 | ||
| 2085 | 13.95 | 13.09 | -0.85 | ---- | -3.60 | -0.21 | 3.40 | ||
| 2086 | 13.94 | 13.09 | -0.85 | ---- | -3.64 | -0.21 | 3.43 | ||
| 2087 | 13.95 | 13.09 | -0.85 | ---- | -3.67 | -0.21 | 3.46 | ||
| 2088 | 13.95 | 13.09 | -0.86 | ---- | -3.70 | -0.21 | 3.49 | ||
| 2089 | 13.97 | 13.09 | -0.87 | ---- | -3.73 | -0.21 | 3.52 | ||
| 2090 | 13.99 | 13.10 | -0.89 | ---- | -3.76 | -0.22 | 3.55 | ||
| 2091 | 14.00 | 13.10 | -0.91 | ---- | -3.79 | -0.22 | 3.57 | ||
| 2092 | 14.03 | 13.10 | -0.93 | ---- | -3.82 | -0.22 | 3.60 | ||
Summarized Estimates
| Proposal | Change from Current Law | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Years | Cost rate |
Income rate |
Actuarial balance |
Year of reserve depletion1 |
Cost rate |
Income rate |
Actuarial balance |
||
| 2017-2091 | 15.17% | 13.75% | -1.41% | 2035 | -1.50% | -0.08% | 1.41% | ||
1 Under current law, the year of Trust Fund reserve depletion is 2034. |
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Based on Intermediate Assumptions of the 2017 Trustees Report.