Description of Proposed Provision:
E1.6: Increase the payroll tax rate (currently 12.4 percent) to 12.6 percent in 2020, 12.9 percent in 2028, 13.3 in percent in 2038, 13.8 percent in 2048, 14.4 percent in 2068, and 14.5 percent in 2083 and later.
Financial Estimates for the OASDI Trust Fund Program
| Proposal | Change from Current Law | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Expressed as a percentage of current-law taxable payroll |
Trust fund ratio as of January 1 |
Expressed as a percentage of current-law taxable payroll |
|||||||
|
Calendar year |
Cost rate |
Income rate |
Annual balance |
Cost rate |
Income rate |
Annual balance |
|||
| 2017 | 13.41 | 13.03 | -0.38 | 298 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | ||
| 2018 | 13.49 | 12.93 | -0.56 | 287 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | ||
| 2019 | 13.70 | 12.95 | -0.75 | 273 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | ||
| 2020 | 13.85 | 13.14 | -0.71 | 259 | 0.00 | 0.18 | 0.18 | ||
| 2021 | 14.02 | 13.18 | -0.83 | 246 | -0.00 | 0.19 | 0.19 | ||
| 2022 | 14.26 | 13.21 | -1.04 | 233 | -0.00 | 0.19 | 0.19 | ||
| 2023 | 14.54 | 13.24 | -1.30 | 219 | -0.00 | 0.19 | 0.19 | ||
| 2024 | 14.83 | 13.27 | -1.55 | 204 | -0.00 | 0.19 | 0.19 | ||
| 2025 | 15.10 | 13.29 | -1.80 | 188 | -0.00 | 0.19 | 0.19 | ||
| 2026 | 15.37 | 13.33 | -2.04 | 172 | -0.00 | 0.19 | 0.19 | ||
| 2027 | 15.62 | 13.34 | -2.27 | 156 | -0.00 | 0.19 | 0.19 | ||
| 2028 | 15.85 | 13.63 | -2.22 | 139 | -0.00 | 0.46 | 0.46 | ||
| 2029 | 16.06 | 13.66 | -2.41 | 124 | -0.00 | 0.48 | 0.48 | ||
| 2030 | 16.26 | 13.67 | -2.59 | 109 | -0.00 | 0.48 | 0.48 | ||
| 2031 | 16.45 | 13.68 | -2.76 | 93 | -0.00 | 0.48 | 0.48 | ||
| 2032 | 16.60 | 13.70 | -2.91 | 77 | -0.00 | 0.48 | 0.48 | ||
| 2033 | 16.74 | 13.70 | -3.03 | 60 | -0.00 | 0.48 | 0.48 | ||
| 2034 | 16.85 | 13.71 | -3.13 | 43 | -0.00 | 0.48 | 0.48 | ||
| 2035 | 16.92 | 13.72 | -3.21 | 25 | -0.00 | 0.48 | 0.48 | ||
| 2036 | 16.99 | 13.72 | -3.26 | 6 | -0.00 | 0.48 | 0.48 | ||
| 2037 | 17.02 | 13.72 | -3.29 | ---- | -0.00 | 0.48 | 0.48 | ||
| 2038 | 17.02 | 14.09 | -2.93 | ---- | -0.00 | 0.84 | 0.84 | ||
| 2039 | 16.99 | 14.11 | -2.89 | ---- | -0.00 | 0.86 | 0.86 | ||
| 2040 | 16.96 | 14.11 | -2.85 | ---- | -0.00 | 0.86 | 0.86 | ||
| 2041 | 16.91 | 14.10 | -2.81 | ---- | -0.01 | 0.86 | 0.86 | ||
| 2042 | 16.86 | 14.10 | -2.75 | ---- | -0.01 | 0.86 | 0.86 | ||
| 2043 | 16.80 | 14.10 | -2.70 | ---- | -0.01 | 0.86 | 0.86 | ||
| 2044 | 16.75 | 14.10 | -2.66 | ---- | -0.01 | 0.86 | 0.86 | ||
| 2045 | 16.71 | 14.10 | -2.62 | ---- | -0.01 | 0.86 | 0.87 | ||
| 2046 | 16.67 | 14.09 | -2.58 | ---- | -0.01 | 0.86 | 0.87 | ||
| 2047 | 16.64 | 14.09 | -2.55 | ---- | -0.01 | 0.86 | 0.87 | ||
| 2048 | 16.61 | 14.54 | -2.06 | ---- | -0.01 | 1.31 | 1.32 | ||
| 2049 | 16.58 | 14.56 | -2.01 | ---- | -0.01 | 1.33 | 1.34 | ||
| 2050 | 16.56 | 14.56 | -1.99 | ---- | -0.01 | 1.33 | 1.34 | ||
| 2051 | 16.54 | 14.56 | -1.98 | ---- | -0.01 | 1.33 | 1.34 | ||
| 2052 | 16.54 | 14.57 | -1.98 | ---- | -0.01 | 1.33 | 1.35 | ||
| 2053 | 16.56 | 14.57 | -1.99 | ---- | -0.01 | 1.33 | 1.35 | ||
| 2054 | 16.57 | 14.57 | -2.01 | ---- | -0.01 | 1.33 | 1.35 | ||
| 2055 | 16.60 | 14.57 | -2.03 | ---- | -0.02 | 1.33 | 1.35 | ||
| 2056 | 16.64 | 14.57 | -2.07 | ---- | -0.02 | 1.33 | 1.35 | ||
| 2057 | 16.68 | 14.58 | -2.10 | ---- | -0.02 | 1.33 | 1.35 | ||
| 2058 | 16.72 | 14.58 | -2.14 | ---- | -0.02 | 1.33 | 1.35 | ||
| 2059 | 16.76 | 14.58 | -2.18 | ---- | -0.02 | 1.33 | 1.35 | ||
| 2060 | 16.81 | 14.59 | -2.22 | ---- | -0.02 | 1.33 | 1.36 | ||
| 2061 | 16.85 | 14.59 | -2.26 | ---- | -0.02 | 1.33 | 1.36 | ||
| 2062 | 16.90 | 14.59 | -2.30 | ---- | -0.02 | 1.34 | 1.36 | ||
| 2063 | 16.95 | 14.60 | -2.35 | ---- | -0.02 | 1.34 | 1.36 | ||
| 2064 | 16.99 | 14.60 | -2.39 | ---- | -0.03 | 1.34 | 1.36 | ||
| 2065 | 17.04 | 14.60 | -2.44 | ---- | -0.03 | 1.34 | 1.36 | ||
| 2066 | 17.09 | 14.61 | -2.48 | ---- | -0.03 | 1.34 | 1.36 | ||
| 2067 | 17.14 | 14.61 | -2.53 | ---- | -0.03 | 1.34 | 1.37 | ||
| 2068 | 17.19 | 15.16 | -2.04 | ---- | -0.03 | 1.88 | 1.91 | ||
| 2069 | 17.24 | 15.19 | -2.06 | ---- | -0.03 | 1.90 | 1.94 | ||
| 2070 | 17.29 | 15.19 | -2.10 | ---- | -0.03 | 1.91 | 1.94 | ||
| 2071 | 17.34 | 15.19 | -2.14 | ---- | -0.03 | 1.91 | 1.94 | ||
| 2072 | 17.38 | 15.20 | -2.18 | ---- | -0.04 | 1.91 | 1.94 | ||
| 2073 | 17.41 | 15.20 | -2.21 | ---- | -0.04 | 1.91 | 1.94 | ||
| 2074 | 17.44 | 15.20 | -2.24 | ---- | -0.04 | 1.91 | 1.95 | ||
| 2075 | 17.46 | 15.20 | -2.26 | ---- | -0.04 | 1.91 | 1.95 | ||
| 2076 | 17.48 | 15.21 | -2.27 | ---- | -0.04 | 1.91 | 1.95 | ||
| 2077 | 17.48 | 15.21 | -2.28 | ---- | -0.04 | 1.91 | 1.95 | ||
| 2078 | 17.48 | 15.21 | -2.27 | ---- | -0.04 | 1.91 | 1.95 | ||
| 2079 | 17.47 | 15.21 | -2.27 | ---- | -0.04 | 1.91 | 1.95 | ||
| 2080 | 17.47 | 15.21 | -2.26 | ---- | -0.04 | 1.91 | 1.95 | ||
| 2081 | 17.46 | 15.21 | -2.25 | ---- | -0.05 | 1.91 | 1.96 | ||
| 2082 | 17.46 | 15.21 | -2.25 | ---- | -0.05 | 1.91 | 1.96 | ||
| 2083 | 17.46 | 15.30 | -2.17 | ---- | -0.05 | 2.00 | 2.05 | ||
| 2084 | 17.48 | 15.30 | -2.17 | ---- | -0.05 | 2.01 | 2.06 | ||
| 2085 | 17.50 | 15.31 | -2.19 | ---- | -0.05 | 2.01 | 2.06 | ||
| 2086 | 17.53 | 15.31 | -2.22 | ---- | -0.05 | 2.01 | 2.06 | ||
| 2087 | 17.56 | 15.31 | -2.25 | ---- | -0.05 | 2.01 | 2.06 | ||
| 2088 | 17.60 | 15.31 | -2.29 | ---- | -0.05 | 2.01 | 2.06 | ||
| 2089 | 17.65 | 15.32 | -2.33 | ---- | -0.05 | 2.01 | 2.06 | ||
| 2090 | 17.69 | 15.32 | -2.37 | ---- | -0.06 | 2.01 | 2.06 | ||
| 2091 | 17.74 | 15.32 | -2.41 | ---- | -0.06 | 2.01 | 2.07 | ||
| 2092 | 17.79 | 15.33 | -2.46 | ---- | -0.06 | 2.01 | 2.07 | ||
Summarized Estimates
| Proposal | Change from Current Law | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Years | Cost rate |
Income rate |
Actuarial balance |
Year of reserve depletion1 |
Cost rate |
Income rate |
Actuarial balance |
||
| 2017-2091 | 16.65% | 14.89% | -1.75% | 2036 | -0.02% | 1.06% | 1.07% | ||
1 Under current law, the year of Trust Fund reserve depletion is 2034. |
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Based on Intermediate Assumptions of the 2017 Trustees Report.