Long Range Solvency Provisions

Description of Proposed Provision:
B5.3: Beginning for those newly eligible in 2018, reconfigure the special minimum benefit: (a) A year of coverage is defined to be either a year in which 4 quarters of coverage are earned or a child is in care. Childcare years are granted to parents who have a child under 5, with a limit of 8 such years. (b) At implementation, set the PIA for 30 years of coverage equal to 125 percent of the monthly poverty level (about $1,238 in 2016). For those with under 30 years of coverage, the PIA per year of coverage over 10 years is $1,238/20 = $61.90. (c) Index the initial PIA per year of coverage by wage growth for successive cohorts.

Financial Estimates for the OASDI Trust Fund Program

	Proposal				Change from Current Law
	Expressed as a percentage of current-law taxable payroll			Trust fund ratio as of January 1	Expressed as a percentage of current-law taxable payroll
Calendar year	Cost rate	Income rate	Annual balance	Trust fund ratio as of January 1	Cost rate	Income rate	Annual balance
2017	13.41	13.03	-0.38	298	0.00	0.00	0.00
2018	13.49	12.93	-0.56	287	0.00	0.00	-0.00
2019	13.71	12.95	-0.76	273	0.01	0.00	-0.01
2020	13.87	12.96	-0.91	258	0.02	0.00	-0.02
2021	14.05	12.99	-1.06	244	0.03	0.00	-0.03
2022	14.30	13.02	-1.27	229	0.04	0.00	-0.04
2023	14.60	13.05	-1.55	213	0.06	0.00	-0.05
2024	14.90	13.09	-1.81	197	0.07	0.00	-0.07
2025	15.18	13.11	-2.07	180	0.08	0.00	-0.08
2026	15.47	13.14	-2.33	162	0.09	0.00	-0.09
2027	15.72	13.16	-2.57	144	0.11	0.00	-0.10
2028	15.97	13.17	-2.80	126	0.12	0.01	-0.11
2029	16.20	13.19	-3.01	108	0.13	0.01	-0.13
2030	16.41	13.20	-3.21	89	0.14	0.01	-0.14
2031	16.60	13.21	-3.39	70	0.15	0.01	-0.15
2032	16.77	13.23	-3.54	50	0.16	0.01	-0.15
2033	16.91	13.24	-3.68	29	0.17	0.01	-0.16
2034	17.03	13.24	-3.79	8	0.18	0.01	-0.17
2035	17.12	13.25	-3.87	----	0.19	0.01	-0.18
2036	17.19	13.25	-3.93	----	0.20	0.01	-0.19
2037	17.23	13.26	-3.97	----	0.20	0.01	-0.19
2038	17.23	13.26	-3.97	----	0.21	0.01	-0.20
2039	17.22	13.26	-3.96	----	0.22	0.01	-0.21
2040	17.19	13.26	-3.93	----	0.22	0.01	-0.21
2041	17.14	13.26	-3.89	----	0.23	0.01	-0.22
2042	17.10	13.26	-3.84	----	0.24	0.01	-0.22
2043	17.05	13.25	-3.79	----	0.24	0.01	-0.23
2044	17.01	13.25	-3.75	----	0.25	0.01	-0.23
2045	16.97	13.25	-3.72	----	0.25	0.01	-0.24
2046	16.94	13.25	-3.69	----	0.26	0.01	-0.25
2047	16.91	13.25	-3.66	----	0.26	0.01	-0.25
2048	16.89	13.25	-3.64	----	0.27	0.01	-0.26
2049	16.86	13.25	-3.62	----	0.28	0.01	-0.26
2050	16.85	13.25	-3.60	----	0.28	0.01	-0.27
2051	16.84	13.25	-3.59	----	0.29	0.01	-0.27
2052	16.85	13.25	-3.60	----	0.29	0.02	-0.27
2053	16.86	13.25	-3.61	----	0.29	0.02	-0.28
2054	16.89	13.25	-3.64	----	0.30	0.02	-0.28
2055	16.92	13.25	-3.67	----	0.30	0.02	-0.29
2056	16.96	13.26	-3.70	----	0.30	0.02	-0.29
2057	17.00	13.26	-3.74	----	0.31	0.02	-0.29
2058	17.05	13.26	-3.79	----	0.31	0.02	-0.29
2059	17.10	13.27	-3.83	----	0.31	0.02	-0.30
2060	17.14	13.27	-3.87	----	0.31	0.02	-0.30
2061	17.19	13.27	-3.92	----	0.32	0.02	-0.30
2062	17.24	13.28	-3.96	----	0.32	0.02	-0.30
2063	17.29	13.28	-4.01	----	0.32	0.02	-0.30
2064	17.34	13.28	-4.06	----	0.32	0.02	-0.31
2065	17.39	13.29	-4.10	----	0.32	0.02	-0.31
2066	17.44	13.29	-4.15	----	0.33	0.02	-0.31
2067	17.50	13.29	-4.20	----	0.33	0.02	-0.31
2068	17.55	13.30	-4.25	----	0.33	0.02	-0.31
2069	17.60	13.30	-4.31	----	0.33	0.02	-0.31
2070	17.66	13.30	-4.35	----	0.33	0.02	-0.31
2071	17.70	13.31	-4.40	----	0.33	0.02	-0.31
2072	17.75	13.31	-4.44	----	0.33	0.02	-0.31
2073	17.78	13.31	-4.47	----	0.33	0.02	-0.32
2074	17.81	13.31	-4.50	----	0.33	0.02	-0.32
2075	17.84	13.31	-4.52	----	0.33	0.02	-0.32
2076	17.85	13.32	-4.54	----	0.33	0.02	-0.32
2077	17.86	13.32	-4.54	----	0.33	0.02	-0.32
2078	17.86	13.32	-4.54	----	0.33	0.02	-0.31
2079	17.85	13.32	-4.53	----	0.33	0.02	-0.31
2080	17.84	13.32	-4.53	----	0.33	0.02	-0.31
2081	17.84	13.32	-4.52	----	0.33	0.02	-0.31
2082	17.84	13.31	-4.52	----	0.33	0.02	-0.31
2083	17.84	13.32	-4.53	----	0.33	0.02	-0.31
2084	17.86	13.32	-4.54	----	0.33	0.02	-0.31
2085	17.88	13.32	-4.57	----	0.33	0.02	-0.31
2086	17.91	13.32	-4.59	----	0.33	0.02	-0.32
2087	17.95	13.32	-4.63	----	0.33	0.02	-0.32
2088	17.99	13.32	-4.67	----	0.33	0.02	-0.32
2089	18.04	13.33	-4.71	----	0.33	0.02	-0.32
2090	18.08	13.33	-4.75	----	0.34	0.02	-0.32
2091	18.13	13.33	-4.80	----	0.34	0.02	-0.32
2092	18.18	13.34	-4.84	----	0.34	0.02	-0.32

Summarized Estimates

	Proposal				Change from Current Law
Years	Cost rate	Income rate	Actuarial balance	Year of reserve depletion¹	Cost rate	Income rate	Actuarial balance
2017-2091	16.90%	13.85%	-3.05%	2034	0.24%	0.01%	-0.22%
¹ Under current law, the year of Trust Fund reserve depletion is 2034.

Based on Intermediate Assumptions of the 2017 Trustees Report.

Detailed Single Year Tables

Financial Estimates for the OASDI Trust Fund Program

Summarized Estimates