Description of Proposed Provision:
A3: Starting December 2019, compute the COLA using a chained version of the consumer price index for wage and salary workers (CPI-W). We estimate this new computation will reduce the annual COLA by about 0.3 percentage point, on average.
Financial Estimates for the OASDI Trust Fund Program
| Proposal | Change from Current Law | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Expressed as a percentage of current-law taxable payroll |
Trust fund ratio as of January 1 |
Expressed as a percentage of current-law taxable payroll |
|||||||
|
Calendar year |
Cost rate |
Income rate |
Annual balance |
Cost rate |
Income rate |
Annual balance |
|||
| 2018 | 13.81 | 12.64 | -1.17 | 288 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | ||
| 2019 | 13.95 | 12.87 | -1.08 | 272 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | ||
| 2020 | 14.08 | 12.89 | -1.19 | 257 | -0.04 | -0.00 | 0.04 | ||
| 2021 | 14.19 | 12.92 | -1.28 | 241 | -0.08 | -0.00 | 0.08 | ||
| 2022 | 14.32 | 12.94 | -1.37 | 225 | -0.12 | -0.00 | 0.12 | ||
| 2023 | 14.46 | 12.96 | -1.50 | 209 | -0.16 | -0.01 | 0.16 | ||
| 2024 | 14.60 | 12.99 | -1.62 | 193 | -0.20 | -0.01 | 0.19 | ||
| 2025 | 14.74 | 13.00 | -1.74 | 178 | -0.24 | -0.01 | 0.23 | ||
| 2026 | 14.88 | 13.12 | -1.76 | 162 | -0.28 | -0.01 | 0.26 | ||
| 2027 | 15.05 | 13.14 | -1.91 | 147 | -0.32 | -0.02 | 0.30 | ||
| 2028 | 15.23 | 13.15 | -2.08 | 132 | -0.35 | -0.02 | 0.33 | ||
| 2029 | 15.40 | 13.17 | -2.24 | 117 | -0.39 | -0.02 | 0.37 | ||
| 2030 | 15.56 | 13.18 | -2.38 | 102 | -0.42 | -0.02 | 0.40 | ||
| 2031 | 15.71 | 13.19 | -2.52 | 86 | -0.45 | -0.02 | 0.43 | ||
| 2032 | 15.83 | 13.20 | -2.63 | 71 | -0.48 | -0.03 | 0.46 | ||
| 2033 | 15.94 | 13.21 | -2.73 | 55 | -0.51 | -0.03 | 0.48 | ||
| 2034 | 16.03 | 13.22 | -2.81 | 38 | -0.54 | -0.03 | 0.51 | ||
| 2035 | 16.09 | 13.22 | -2.87 | 22 | -0.56 | -0.03 | 0.53 | ||
| 2036 | 16.14 | 13.23 | -2.91 | 4 | -0.58 | -0.03 | 0.55 | ||
| 2037 | 16.18 | 13.23 | -2.95 | ---- | -0.61 | -0.03 | 0.57 | ||
| 2038 | 16.20 | 13.24 | -2.96 | ---- | -0.62 | -0.03 | 0.59 | ||
| 2039 | 16.19 | 13.24 | -2.95 | ---- | -0.64 | -0.04 | 0.61 | ||
| 2040 | 16.17 | 13.24 | -2.94 | ---- | -0.66 | -0.04 | 0.62 | ||
| 2041 | 16.14 | 13.24 | -2.91 | ---- | -0.67 | -0.04 | 0.63 | ||
| 2042 | 16.10 | 13.23 | -2.86 | ---- | -0.68 | -0.04 | 0.64 | ||
| 2043 | 16.05 | 13.23 | -2.82 | ---- | -0.69 | -0.04 | 0.65 | ||
| 2044 | 16.00 | 13.23 | -2.77 | ---- | -0.69 | -0.04 | 0.65 | ||
| 2045 | 15.96 | 13.23 | -2.73 | ---- | -0.70 | -0.04 | 0.66 | ||
| 2046 | 15.92 | 13.23 | -2.70 | ---- | -0.70 | -0.04 | 0.66 | ||
| 2047 | 15.89 | 13.23 | -2.67 | ---- | -0.71 | -0.04 | 0.67 | ||
| 2048 | 15.87 | 13.23 | -2.64 | ---- | -0.71 | -0.04 | 0.67 | ||
| 2049 | 15.84 | 13.23 | -2.62 | ---- | -0.71 | -0.04 | 0.67 | ||
| 2050 | 15.83 | 13.23 | -2.60 | ---- | -0.71 | -0.04 | 0.67 | ||
| 2051 | 15.82 | 13.23 | -2.59 | ---- | -0.71 | -0.04 | 0.67 | ||
| 2052 | 15.82 | 13.23 | -2.59 | ---- | -0.71 | -0.04 | 0.67 | ||
| 2053 | 15.83 | 13.23 | -2.60 | ---- | -0.72 | -0.04 | 0.67 | ||
| 2054 | 15.84 | 13.23 | -2.61 | ---- | -0.72 | -0.04 | 0.68 | ||
| 2055 | 15.87 | 13.24 | -2.64 | ---- | -0.72 | -0.04 | 0.68 | ||
| 2056 | 15.91 | 13.24 | -2.67 | ---- | -0.72 | -0.04 | 0.68 | ||
| 2057 | 15.95 | 13.24 | -2.70 | ---- | -0.72 | -0.04 | 0.68 | ||
| 2058 | 15.99 | 13.25 | -2.74 | ---- | -0.72 | -0.04 | 0.68 | ||
| 2059 | 16.04 | 13.25 | -2.79 | ---- | -0.72 | -0.04 | 0.68 | ||
| 2060 | 16.08 | 13.25 | -2.83 | ---- | -0.73 | -0.04 | 0.69 | ||
| 2061 | 16.13 | 13.26 | -2.87 | ---- | -0.73 | -0.04 | 0.69 | ||
| 2062 | 16.18 | 13.26 | -2.92 | ---- | -0.73 | -0.04 | 0.69 | ||
| 2063 | 16.23 | 13.26 | -2.96 | ---- | -0.74 | -0.04 | 0.69 | ||
| 2064 | 16.27 | 13.27 | -3.01 | ---- | -0.74 | -0.04 | 0.70 | ||
| 2065 | 16.32 | 13.27 | -3.05 | ---- | -0.74 | -0.04 | 0.70 | ||
| 2066 | 16.38 | 13.28 | -3.10 | ---- | -0.75 | -0.04 | 0.71 | ||
| 2067 | 16.43 | 13.28 | -3.15 | ---- | -0.75 | -0.04 | 0.71 | ||
| 2068 | 16.49 | 13.28 | -3.20 | ---- | -0.76 | -0.04 | 0.71 | ||
| 2069 | 16.54 | 13.29 | -3.25 | ---- | -0.76 | -0.04 | 0.72 | ||
| 2070 | 16.60 | 13.29 | -3.31 | ---- | -0.77 | -0.04 | 0.72 | ||
| 2071 | 16.65 | 13.29 | -3.35 | ---- | -0.77 | -0.04 | 0.73 | ||
| 2072 | 16.69 | 13.30 | -3.40 | ---- | -0.78 | -0.04 | 0.73 | ||
| 2073 | 16.73 | 13.30 | -3.43 | ---- | -0.78 | -0.05 | 0.73 | ||
| 2074 | 16.77 | 13.30 | -3.47 | ---- | -0.78 | -0.05 | 0.74 | ||
| 2075 | 16.80 | 13.31 | -3.49 | ---- | -0.79 | -0.05 | 0.74 | ||
| 2076 | 16.82 | 13.31 | -3.51 | ---- | -0.79 | -0.05 | 0.74 | ||
| 2077 | 16.83 | 13.31 | -3.52 | ---- | -0.79 | -0.05 | 0.75 | ||
| 2078 | 16.83 | 13.31 | -3.52 | ---- | -0.80 | -0.05 | 0.75 | ||
| 2079 | 16.82 | 13.31 | -3.51 | ---- | -0.80 | -0.05 | 0.75 | ||
| 2080 | 16.80 | 13.31 | -3.50 | ---- | -0.80 | -0.05 | 0.75 | ||
| 2081 | 16.79 | 13.31 | -3.48 | ---- | -0.80 | -0.05 | 0.76 | ||
| 2082 | 16.77 | 13.31 | -3.46 | ---- | -0.80 | -0.05 | 0.76 | ||
| 2083 | 16.75 | 13.31 | -3.44 | ---- | -0.81 | -0.05 | 0.76 | ||
| 2084 | 16.73 | 13.30 | -3.43 | ---- | -0.81 | -0.05 | 0.76 | ||
| 2085 | 16.72 | 13.30 | -3.42 | ---- | -0.81 | -0.05 | 0.76 | ||
| 2086 | 16.72 | 13.30 | -3.42 | ---- | -0.81 | -0.05 | 0.76 | ||
| 2087 | 16.72 | 13.30 | -3.42 | ---- | -0.81 | -0.05 | 0.76 | ||
| 2088 | 16.74 | 13.30 | -3.43 | ---- | -0.81 | -0.05 | 0.76 | ||
| 2089 | 16.76 | 13.31 | -3.45 | ---- | -0.81 | -0.05 | 0.76 | ||
| 2090 | 16.79 | 13.31 | -3.48 | ---- | -0.81 | -0.05 | 0.76 | ||
| 2091 | 16.82 | 13.31 | -3.51 | ---- | -0.81 | -0.05 | 0.77 | ||
| 2092 | 16.86 | 13.31 | -3.55 | ---- | -0.82 | -0.05 | 0.77 | ||
| 2093 | 16.91 | 13.32 | -3.59 | ---- | -0.82 | -0.05 | 0.77 | ||
Summarized Estimates
| Proposal | Change from Current Law | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Years | Cost rate |
Income rate |
Actuarial balance |
Year of reserve depletion1 |
Cost rate |
Income rate |
Actuarial balance |
||
| 2018-2092 | 16.08% | 13.81% | -2.27% | 2036 | -0.61% | -0.03% | 0.58% | ||
1 Under current law, the year of Trust Fund reserve depletion is 2034. |
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Based on Intermediate Assumptions of the 2018 Trustees Report.