Description of Proposed Provision:
A4: Starting December 2021, compute the COLA using a chained version of the consumer price index for wage and salary workers (CPI-W). We estimate this new computation will reduce the annual COLA by about 0.3 percentage point, on average. The new COLA will not apply to DI benefits. It will apply to OASI benefits, except for those of formerly disabled-workers who converted to retired-worker status.
Financial Estimates for the OASDI Trust Fund Program
| Proposal | Change from Current Law | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Expressed as a percentage of current-law taxable payroll |
Trust fund ratio as of January 1 |
Expressed as a percentage of current-law taxable payroll |
|||||||
|
Calendar year |
Cost rate |
Income rate |
Annual balance |
Cost rate |
Income rate |
Annual balance |
|||
| 2018 | 13.81 | 12.64 | -1.17 | 288 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | ||
| 2019 | 13.95 | 12.87 | -1.08 | 272 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | ||
| 2020 | 14.12 | 12.89 | -1.23 | 256 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | ||
| 2021 | 14.27 | 12.92 | -1.35 | 239 | -0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | ||
| 2022 | 14.41 | 12.95 | -1.46 | 223 | -0.03 | -0.00 | 0.03 | ||
| 2023 | 14.55 | 12.96 | -1.59 | 207 | -0.07 | -0.00 | 0.06 | ||
| 2024 | 14.70 | 12.99 | -1.72 | 190 | -0.10 | -0.00 | 0.09 | ||
| 2025 | 14.85 | 13.00 | -1.85 | 174 | -0.13 | -0.01 | 0.13 | ||
| 2026 | 14.99 | 13.12 | -1.87 | 158 | -0.17 | -0.01 | 0.16 | ||
| 2027 | 15.16 | 13.14 | -2.02 | 142 | -0.20 | -0.01 | 0.19 | ||
| 2028 | 15.35 | 13.16 | -2.19 | 126 | -0.23 | -0.01 | 0.22 | ||
| 2029 | 15.53 | 13.17 | -2.35 | 111 | -0.26 | -0.01 | 0.25 | ||
| 2030 | 15.69 | 13.19 | -2.50 | 95 | -0.29 | -0.02 | 0.28 | ||
| 2031 | 15.84 | 13.20 | -2.64 | 79 | -0.32 | -0.02 | 0.31 | ||
| 2032 | 15.97 | 13.21 | -2.76 | 63 | -0.35 | -0.02 | 0.33 | ||
| 2033 | 16.07 | 13.22 | -2.86 | 46 | -0.38 | -0.02 | 0.36 | ||
| 2034 | 16.16 | 13.22 | -2.94 | 29 | -0.40 | -0.02 | 0.38 | ||
| 2035 | 16.23 | 13.23 | -3.00 | 12 | -0.42 | -0.02 | 0.40 | ||
| 2036 | 16.28 | 13.23 | -3.04 | ---- | -0.44 | -0.03 | 0.42 | ||
| 2037 | 16.32 | 13.24 | -3.08 | ---- | -0.46 | -0.03 | 0.44 | ||
| 2038 | 16.34 | 13.24 | -3.10 | ---- | -0.48 | -0.03 | 0.45 | ||
| 2039 | 16.34 | 13.24 | -3.09 | ---- | -0.50 | -0.03 | 0.47 | ||
| 2040 | 16.32 | 13.24 | -3.07 | ---- | -0.51 | -0.03 | 0.48 | ||
| 2041 | 16.29 | 13.24 | -3.05 | ---- | -0.52 | -0.03 | 0.49 | ||
| 2042 | 16.24 | 13.24 | -3.00 | ---- | -0.53 | -0.03 | 0.50 | ||
| 2043 | 16.20 | 13.24 | -2.96 | ---- | -0.54 | -0.03 | 0.51 | ||
| 2044 | 16.15 | 13.24 | -2.91 | ---- | -0.55 | -0.03 | 0.51 | ||
| 2045 | 16.11 | 13.24 | -2.87 | ---- | -0.55 | -0.03 | 0.52 | ||
| 2046 | 16.07 | 13.24 | -2.84 | ---- | -0.55 | -0.03 | 0.52 | ||
| 2047 | 16.04 | 13.23 | -2.81 | ---- | -0.56 | -0.03 | 0.52 | ||
| 2048 | 16.02 | 13.23 | -2.78 | ---- | -0.56 | -0.03 | 0.53 | ||
| 2049 | 15.99 | 13.23 | -2.76 | ---- | -0.56 | -0.03 | 0.53 | ||
| 2050 | 15.98 | 13.23 | -2.75 | ---- | -0.56 | -0.03 | 0.53 | ||
| 2051 | 15.97 | 13.23 | -2.74 | ---- | -0.56 | -0.03 | 0.53 | ||
| 2052 | 15.97 | 13.24 | -2.74 | ---- | -0.56 | -0.03 | 0.53 | ||
| 2053 | 15.98 | 13.24 | -2.75 | ---- | -0.56 | -0.03 | 0.53 | ||
| 2054 | 16.00 | 13.24 | -2.76 | ---- | -0.56 | -0.03 | 0.53 | ||
| 2055 | 16.03 | 13.24 | -2.79 | ---- | -0.56 | -0.03 | 0.53 | ||
| 2056 | 16.06 | 13.25 | -2.82 | ---- | -0.56 | -0.03 | 0.53 | ||
| 2057 | 16.10 | 13.25 | -2.86 | ---- | -0.56 | -0.03 | 0.53 | ||
| 2058 | 16.15 | 13.25 | -2.90 | ---- | -0.56 | -0.03 | 0.53 | ||
| 2059 | 16.20 | 13.26 | -2.94 | ---- | -0.56 | -0.03 | 0.53 | ||
| 2060 | 16.25 | 13.26 | -2.98 | ---- | -0.56 | -0.03 | 0.53 | ||
| 2061 | 16.29 | 13.26 | -3.03 | ---- | -0.57 | -0.03 | 0.53 | ||
| 2062 | 16.34 | 13.27 | -3.07 | ---- | -0.57 | -0.03 | 0.53 | ||
| 2063 | 16.39 | 13.27 | -3.12 | ---- | -0.57 | -0.03 | 0.53 | ||
| 2064 | 16.44 | 13.28 | -3.17 | ---- | -0.57 | -0.03 | 0.54 | ||
| 2065 | 16.49 | 13.28 | -3.21 | ---- | -0.57 | -0.03 | 0.54 | ||
| 2066 | 16.55 | 13.28 | -3.26 | ---- | -0.58 | -0.03 | 0.54 | ||
| 2067 | 16.60 | 13.29 | -3.32 | ---- | -0.58 | -0.04 | 0.54 | ||
| 2068 | 16.66 | 13.29 | -3.37 | ---- | -0.58 | -0.04 | 0.55 | ||
| 2069 | 16.72 | 13.30 | -3.42 | ---- | -0.59 | -0.04 | 0.55 | ||
| 2070 | 16.77 | 13.30 | -3.48 | ---- | -0.59 | -0.04 | 0.55 | ||
| 2071 | 16.83 | 13.30 | -3.52 | ---- | -0.59 | -0.04 | 0.56 | ||
| 2072 | 16.87 | 13.31 | -3.57 | ---- | -0.60 | -0.04 | 0.56 | ||
| 2073 | 16.92 | 13.31 | -3.61 | ---- | -0.60 | -0.04 | 0.56 | ||
| 2074 | 16.95 | 13.31 | -3.64 | ---- | -0.60 | -0.04 | 0.56 | ||
| 2075 | 16.98 | 13.32 | -3.67 | ---- | -0.60 | -0.04 | 0.57 | ||
| 2076 | 17.00 | 13.32 | -3.69 | ---- | -0.61 | -0.04 | 0.57 | ||
| 2077 | 17.02 | 13.32 | -3.70 | ---- | -0.61 | -0.04 | 0.57 | ||
| 2078 | 17.02 | 13.32 | -3.70 | ---- | -0.61 | -0.04 | 0.57 | ||
| 2079 | 17.01 | 13.32 | -3.69 | ---- | -0.61 | -0.04 | 0.57 | ||
| 2080 | 16.99 | 13.32 | -3.67 | ---- | -0.61 | -0.04 | 0.58 | ||
| 2081 | 16.98 | 13.32 | -3.66 | ---- | -0.61 | -0.04 | 0.58 | ||
| 2082 | 16.96 | 13.32 | -3.64 | ---- | -0.61 | -0.04 | 0.58 | ||
| 2083 | 16.94 | 13.31 | -3.62 | ---- | -0.61 | -0.04 | 0.58 | ||
| 2084 | 16.92 | 13.31 | -3.61 | ---- | -0.62 | -0.04 | 0.58 | ||
| 2085 | 16.92 | 13.31 | -3.60 | ---- | -0.62 | -0.04 | 0.58 | ||
| 2086 | 16.91 | 13.31 | -3.60 | ---- | -0.62 | -0.04 | 0.58 | ||
| 2087 | 16.92 | 13.31 | -3.60 | ---- | -0.62 | -0.04 | 0.58 | ||
| 2088 | 16.93 | 13.31 | -3.62 | ---- | -0.62 | -0.04 | 0.58 | ||
| 2089 | 16.95 | 13.32 | -3.64 | ---- | -0.62 | -0.04 | 0.58 | ||
| 2090 | 16.98 | 13.32 | -3.67 | ---- | -0.62 | -0.04 | 0.58 | ||
| 2091 | 17.02 | 13.32 | -3.70 | ---- | -0.62 | -0.04 | 0.58 | ||
| 2092 | 17.06 | 13.32 | -3.74 | ---- | -0.62 | -0.04 | 0.58 | ||
| 2093 | 17.11 | 13.33 | -3.78 | ---- | -0.62 | -0.04 | 0.58 | ||
Summarized Estimates
| Proposal | Change from Current Law | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Years | Cost rate |
Income rate |
Actuarial balance |
Year of reserve depletion1 |
Cost rate |
Income rate |
Actuarial balance |
||
| 2018-2092 | 16.22% | 13.82% | -2.41% | 2035 | -0.46% | -0.03% | 0.43% | ||
1 Under current law, the year of Trust Fund reserve depletion is 2034. |
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Based on Intermediate Assumptions of the 2018 Trustees Report.