Description of Proposed Provision:
A8: Starting December 2019, for OASI beneficiaries only (DI beneficiaries would only be affected when their benefit converts to OASI at NRA), the annual COLA would be based on the chain-weighted version of the CPI-U.

Financial Estimates for the OASDI Trust Fund Program

  Proposal   Change from Current Law
  Expressed as a percentage of
current-law taxable payroll

Trust fund
ratio as of
January 1
Expressed as a percentage of
current-law taxable payroll
Calendar
year
Cost
rate
Income
rate
Annual
balance

Cost
rate
Income
rate
Annual
balance
201813.8112.64-1.17
288
0.000.000.00
201913.9512.87-1.08
272
0.000.000.00
202014.0912.89-1.20
257
-0.04-0.000.03
202114.2012.92-1.29
241
-0.07-0.000.07
202214.3312.94-1.39
225
-0.11-0.000.10
202314.4812.96-1.52
209
-0.14-0.010.13
202414.6312.99-1.64
193
-0.18-0.010.17
202514.7713.00-1.77
177
-0.21-0.010.20
202614.9113.12-1.79
161
-0.24-0.010.23
202715.0913.14-1.95
146
-0.28-0.020.26
202815.2713.15-2.12
130
-0.31-0.020.29
202915.4513.17-2.28
115
-0.34-0.020.32
203015.6113.18-2.43
100
-0.37-0.020.35
203115.7613.19-2.57
84
-0.40-0.020.38
203215.8913.20-2.69
68
-0.42-0.020.40
203316.0013.21-2.79
52
-0.45-0.030.42
203416.0913.22-2.87
35
-0.47-0.030.45
203516.1613.23-2.93
18
-0.49-0.030.47
203616.2113.23-2.98
0
-0.51-0.030.48
203716.2513.23-3.02
----
-0.53-0.030.50
203816.2713.24-3.04
----
-0.55-0.030.52
203916.2713.24-3.03
----
-0.56-0.030.53
204016.2613.24-3.02
----
-0.57-0.030.54
204116.2313.24-2.99
----
-0.58-0.030.55
204216.1813.24-2.95
----
-0.59-0.030.56
204316.1413.24-2.90
----
-0.60-0.040.56
204416.0913.23-2.86
----
-0.60-0.040.57
204516.0513.23-2.82
----
-0.61-0.040.57
204616.0213.23-2.79
----
-0.61-0.040.57
204715.9913.23-2.76
----
-0.61-0.040.57
204815.9613.23-2.73
----
-0.61-0.040.58
204915.9413.23-2.71
----
-0.61-0.040.58
205015.9313.23-2.70
----
-0.61-0.040.58
205115.9213.23-2.69
----
-0.61-0.040.58
205215.9213.23-2.69
----
-0.61-0.040.57
205315.9313.23-2.70
----
-0.61-0.040.57
205415.9513.24-2.71
----
-0.61-0.040.57
205515.9813.24-2.74
----
-0.61-0.040.57
205616.0113.24-2.77
----
-0.61-0.040.57
205716.0513.25-2.81
----
-0.61-0.040.57
205816.1013.25-2.85
----
-0.61-0.040.57
205916.1513.25-2.89
----
-0.61-0.040.58
206016.1913.26-2.94
----
-0.61-0.040.58
206116.2413.26-2.98
----
-0.62-0.040.58
206216.2913.27-3.03
----
-0.62-0.040.58
206316.3413.27-3.07
----
-0.62-0.040.58
206416.3913.27-3.12
----
-0.63-0.040.59
206516.4413.28-3.16
----
-0.63-0.040.59
206616.4913.28-3.21
----
-0.63-0.040.59
206716.5513.28-3.26
----
-0.64-0.040.60
206816.6013.29-3.32
----
-0.64-0.040.60
206916.6613.29-3.37
----
-0.64-0.040.60
207016.7213.30-3.42
----
-0.65-0.040.61
207116.7713.30-3.47
----
-0.65-0.040.61
207216.8213.30-3.51
----
-0.65-0.040.61
207316.8613.31-3.55
----
-0.66-0.040.62
207416.8913.31-3.58
----
-0.66-0.040.62
207516.9213.31-3.61
----
-0.66-0.040.62
207616.9413.31-3.63
----
-0.67-0.040.63
207716.9513.31-3.64
----
-0.67-0.040.63
207816.9513.32-3.64
----
-0.67-0.040.63
207916.9413.31-3.63
----
-0.67-0.040.63
208016.9313.31-3.62
----
-0.68-0.040.63
208116.9113.31-3.60
----
-0.68-0.040.64
208216.8913.31-3.58
----
-0.68-0.040.64
208316.8713.31-3.56
----
-0.68-0.040.64
208416.8613.31-3.55
----
-0.68-0.040.64
208516.8513.31-3.54
----
-0.68-0.040.64
208616.8513.31-3.54
----
-0.68-0.040.64
208716.8513.31-3.54
----
-0.68-0.040.64
208816.8613.31-3.55
----
-0.68-0.040.64
208916.8913.31-3.58
----
-0.68-0.040.64
209016.9213.31-3.60
----
-0.68-0.040.64
209116.9513.32-3.64
----
-0.68-0.040.64
209216.9913.32-3.68
----
-0.68-0.040.64
209317.0413.32-3.72
----
-0.69-0.040.64


Summarized Estimates

  Proposal   Change from Current Law
Years Cost
rate
Income
rate
Actuarial
balance

Year of reserve
depletion
1

Cost
rate
Income
rate
Actuarial
balance
2018-2092 16.16% 13.81% -2.35%
2036
-0.52% -0.03% 0.49%

1 Under current law, the year of Trust Fund reserve depletion is 2034.
Based on Intermediate Assumptions of the 2018 Trustees Report.