Description of Proposed Provision:
C1.3: After the normal retirement age (NRA) reaches 67 for those age 62 in 2022, index the NRA to maintain a constant ratio of expected retirement years (life expectancy at NRA) to potential work years (NRA minus 20). We assume the NRA will increase 1 month every 2 years.
Financial Estimates for the OASDI Trust Fund Program
| Proposal | Change from Current Law | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Expressed as a percentage of current-law taxable payroll |
Trust fund ratio as of January 1 |
Expressed as a percentage of current-law taxable payroll |
|||||||
|
Calendar year |
Cost rate |
Income rate |
Annual balance |
Cost rate |
Income rate |
Annual balance |
|||
| 2018 | 13.81 | 12.64 | -1.17 | 288 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | ||
| 2019 | 13.95 | 12.87 | -1.08 | 272 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | ||
| 2020 | 14.12 | 12.89 | -1.23 | 256 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | ||
| 2021 | 14.27 | 12.92 | -1.35 | 239 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | ||
| 2022 | 14.44 | 12.95 | -1.49 | 223 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | ||
| 2023 | 14.62 | 12.97 | -1.65 | 206 | -0.01 | -0.00 | 0.01 | ||
| 2024 | 14.79 | 12.99 | -1.80 | 188 | -0.01 | -0.00 | 0.01 | ||
| 2025 | 14.97 | 13.01 | -1.96 | 171 | -0.02 | -0.00 | 0.02 | ||
| 2026 | 15.14 | 13.13 | -2.00 | 154 | -0.02 | -0.00 | 0.02 | ||
| 2027 | 15.34 | 13.15 | -2.18 | 138 | -0.03 | -0.00 | 0.03 | ||
| 2028 | 15.55 | 13.17 | -2.38 | 121 | -0.03 | -0.00 | 0.03 | ||
| 2029 | 15.75 | 13.19 | -2.56 | 105 | -0.04 | -0.00 | 0.04 | ||
| 2030 | 15.94 | 13.20 | -2.74 | 88 | -0.05 | -0.00 | 0.05 | ||
| 2031 | 16.10 | 13.21 | -2.89 | 70 | -0.06 | -0.00 | 0.06 | ||
| 2032 | 16.25 | 13.23 | -3.02 | 53 | -0.07 | -0.00 | 0.07 | ||
| 2033 | 16.37 | 13.24 | -3.13 | 35 | -0.08 | -0.00 | 0.08 | ||
| 2034 | 16.47 | 13.24 | -3.22 | 17 | -0.10 | -0.00 | 0.10 | ||
| 2035 | 16.54 | 13.25 | -3.29 | ---- | -0.12 | -0.00 | 0.11 | ||
| 2036 | 16.59 | 13.26 | -3.33 | ---- | -0.13 | -0.00 | 0.13 | ||
| 2037 | 16.63 | 13.26 | -3.37 | ---- | -0.15 | -0.01 | 0.15 | ||
| 2038 | 16.65 | 13.26 | -3.39 | ---- | -0.17 | -0.01 | 0.17 | ||
| 2039 | 16.64 | 13.26 | -3.37 | ---- | -0.19 | -0.01 | 0.19 | ||
| 2040 | 16.62 | 13.27 | -3.35 | ---- | -0.21 | -0.01 | 0.20 | ||
| 2041 | 16.58 | 13.26 | -3.32 | ---- | -0.23 | -0.01 | 0.22 | ||
| 2042 | 16.53 | 13.26 | -3.27 | ---- | -0.25 | -0.01 | 0.24 | ||
| 2043 | 16.47 | 13.26 | -3.21 | ---- | -0.27 | -0.01 | 0.26 | ||
| 2044 | 16.40 | 13.26 | -3.15 | ---- | -0.29 | -0.01 | 0.28 | ||
| 2045 | 16.35 | 13.26 | -3.09 | ---- | -0.31 | -0.01 | 0.30 | ||
| 2046 | 16.29 | 13.25 | -3.04 | ---- | -0.34 | -0.01 | 0.32 | ||
| 2047 | 16.24 | 13.25 | -2.99 | ---- | -0.36 | -0.02 | 0.35 | ||
| 2048 | 16.19 | 13.25 | -2.93 | ---- | -0.39 | -0.02 | 0.37 | ||
| 2049 | 16.14 | 13.25 | -2.89 | ---- | -0.42 | -0.02 | 0.40 | ||
| 2050 | 16.09 | 13.25 | -2.85 | ---- | -0.45 | -0.02 | 0.43 | ||
| 2051 | 16.05 | 13.25 | -2.81 | ---- | -0.48 | -0.02 | 0.46 | ||
| 2052 | 16.02 | 13.25 | -2.78 | ---- | -0.51 | -0.02 | 0.49 | ||
| 2053 | 16.00 | 13.25 | -2.76 | ---- | -0.54 | -0.02 | 0.52 | ||
| 2054 | 15.99 | 13.25 | -2.74 | ---- | -0.57 | -0.03 | 0.55 | ||
| 2055 | 15.99 | 13.25 | -2.74 | ---- | -0.60 | -0.03 | 0.57 | ||
| 2056 | 15.99 | 13.25 | -2.74 | ---- | -0.63 | -0.03 | 0.60 | ||
| 2057 | 16.00 | 13.25 | -2.75 | ---- | -0.66 | -0.03 | 0.63 | ||
| 2058 | 16.02 | 13.25 | -2.77 | ---- | -0.69 | -0.03 | 0.66 | ||
| 2059 | 16.04 | 13.26 | -2.78 | ---- | -0.72 | -0.03 | 0.69 | ||
| 2060 | 16.06 | 13.26 | -2.80 | ---- | -0.75 | -0.04 | 0.71 | ||
| 2061 | 16.08 | 13.26 | -2.82 | ---- | -0.78 | -0.04 | 0.74 | ||
| 2062 | 16.10 | 13.26 | -2.84 | ---- | -0.81 | -0.04 | 0.77 | ||
| 2063 | 16.13 | 13.27 | -2.86 | ---- | -0.83 | -0.04 | 0.79 | ||
| 2064 | 16.15 | 13.27 | -2.88 | ---- | -0.86 | -0.04 | 0.82 | ||
| 2065 | 16.18 | 13.27 | -2.91 | ---- | -0.89 | -0.04 | 0.85 | ||
| 2066 | 16.21 | 13.27 | -2.93 | ---- | -0.92 | -0.04 | 0.87 | ||
| 2067 | 16.24 | 13.28 | -2.96 | ---- | -0.95 | -0.05 | 0.90 | ||
| 2068 | 16.27 | 13.28 | -2.99 | ---- | -0.98 | -0.05 | 0.93 | ||
| 2069 | 16.30 | 13.28 | -3.02 | ---- | -1.01 | -0.05 | 0.96 | ||
| 2070 | 16.33 | 13.28 | -3.04 | ---- | -1.04 | -0.05 | 0.99 | ||
| 2071 | 16.35 | 13.29 | -3.06 | ---- | -1.07 | -0.05 | 1.02 | ||
| 2072 | 16.36 | 13.29 | -3.07 | ---- | -1.11 | -0.05 | 1.05 | ||
| 2073 | 16.38 | 13.29 | -3.09 | ---- | -1.14 | -0.06 | 1.08 | ||
| 2074 | 16.39 | 13.29 | -3.10 | ---- | -1.17 | -0.06 | 1.11 | ||
| 2075 | 16.39 | 13.29 | -3.10 | ---- | -1.19 | -0.06 | 1.13 | ||
| 2076 | 16.40 | 13.29 | -3.10 | ---- | -1.21 | -0.06 | 1.15 | ||
| 2077 | 16.39 | 13.29 | -3.09 | ---- | -1.24 | -0.06 | 1.17 | ||
| 2078 | 16.37 | 13.29 | -3.07 | ---- | -1.26 | -0.06 | 1.20 | ||
| 2079 | 16.33 | 13.29 | -3.04 | ---- | -1.29 | -0.06 | 1.22 | ||
| 2080 | 16.30 | 13.29 | -3.01 | ---- | -1.31 | -0.07 | 1.24 | ||
| 2081 | 16.27 | 13.29 | -2.98 | ---- | -1.32 | -0.07 | 1.26 | ||
| 2082 | 16.23 | 13.29 | -2.94 | ---- | -1.34 | -0.07 | 1.28 | ||
| 2083 | 16.19 | 13.28 | -2.90 | ---- | -1.37 | -0.07 | 1.30 | ||
| 2084 | 16.14 | 13.28 | -2.86 | ---- | -1.40 | -0.07 | 1.32 | ||
| 2085 | 16.10 | 13.28 | -2.83 | ---- | -1.43 | -0.07 | 1.35 | ||
| 2086 | 16.06 | 13.27 | -2.79 | ---- | -1.47 | -0.08 | 1.39 | ||
| 2087 | 16.03 | 13.27 | -2.76 | ---- | -1.50 | -0.08 | 1.42 | ||
| 2088 | 16.02 | 13.27 | -2.75 | ---- | -1.53 | -0.08 | 1.45 | ||
| 2089 | 16.02 | 13.27 | -2.74 | ---- | -1.55 | -0.08 | 1.47 | ||
| 2090 | 16.03 | 13.27 | -2.76 | ---- | -1.57 | -0.08 | 1.49 | ||
| 2091 | 16.03 | 13.27 | -2.76 | ---- | -1.60 | -0.09 | 1.52 | ||
| 2092 | 16.04 | 13.27 | -2.77 | ---- | -1.64 | -0.09 | 1.55 | ||
| 2093 | 16.05 | 13.27 | -2.78 | ---- | -1.67 | -0.09 | 1.58 | ||
Summarized Estimates
| Proposal | Change from Current Law | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Years | Cost rate |
Income rate |
Actuarial balance |
Year of reserve depletion1 |
Cost rate |
Income rate |
Actuarial balance |
||
| 2018-2092 | 16.11% | 13.82% | -2.29% | 2034 | -0.58% | -0.03% | 0.55% | ||
1 Under current law, the year of Trust Fund reserve depletion is 2034. |
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Based on Intermediate Assumptions of the 2018 Trustees Report.