Description of Proposed Provision:
C2.8: Starting in 2021, convert all disabled-worker beneficiaries to retired-worker status upon attainment of their earliest eligibility age (EEA) rather than their normal retirement age (NRA). After conversion, apply the early retirement reduction for retirement at EEA (currently about 29.2 percent for those age 62 in 2021) phased in over 40 years.
Financial Estimates for the OASDI Trust Fund Program
| Proposal | Change from Current Law | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Expressed as a percentage of current-law taxable payroll |
Trust fund ratio as of January 1 |
Expressed as a percentage of current-law taxable payroll |
|||||||
|
Calendar year |
Cost rate |
Income rate |
Annual balance |
Cost rate |
Income rate |
Annual balance |
|||
| 2018 | 13.81 | 12.64 | -1.17 | 288 | -0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | ||
| 2019 | 13.95 | 12.87 | -1.08 | 272 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | ||
| 2020 | 14.12 | 12.89 | -1.23 | 256 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | ||
| 2021 | 14.27 | 12.92 | -1.35 | 240 | -0.01 | 0.00 | 0.01 | ||
| 2022 | 14.41 | 12.95 | -1.46 | 223 | -0.03 | 0.00 | 0.03 | ||
| 2023 | 14.56 | 12.97 | -1.59 | 207 | -0.06 | 0.01 | 0.06 | ||
| 2024 | 14.72 | 13.00 | -1.71 | 190 | -0.09 | 0.01 | 0.10 | ||
| 2025 | 14.87 | 13.02 | -1.85 | 174 | -0.11 | 0.01 | 0.12 | ||
| 2026 | 15.03 | 13.15 | -1.88 | 157 | -0.13 | 0.02 | 0.14 | ||
| 2027 | 15.22 | 13.17 | -2.05 | 142 | -0.14 | 0.02 | 0.16 | ||
| 2028 | 15.43 | 13.19 | -2.24 | 126 | -0.16 | 0.02 | 0.17 | ||
| 2029 | 15.63 | 13.20 | -2.42 | 110 | -0.17 | 0.01 | 0.18 | ||
| 2030 | 15.81 | 13.22 | -2.59 | 94 | -0.17 | 0.01 | 0.19 | ||
| 2031 | 15.98 | 13.23 | -2.75 | 77 | -0.18 | 0.01 | 0.19 | ||
| 2032 | 16.13 | 13.24 | -2.89 | 60 | -0.19 | 0.01 | 0.20 | ||
| 2033 | 16.25 | 13.25 | -3.00 | 43 | -0.20 | 0.01 | 0.21 | ||
| 2034 | 16.35 | 13.26 | -3.09 | 25 | -0.21 | 0.01 | 0.22 | ||
| 2035 | 16.43 | 13.26 | -3.16 | 7 | -0.22 | 0.01 | 0.23 | ||
| 2036 | 16.49 | 13.27 | -3.22 | ---- | -0.23 | 0.01 | 0.24 | ||
| 2037 | 16.54 | 13.27 | -3.27 | ---- | -0.24 | 0.01 | 0.25 | ||
| 2038 | 16.57 | 13.28 | -3.29 | ---- | -0.25 | 0.01 | 0.26 | ||
| 2039 | 16.57 | 13.28 | -3.29 | ---- | -0.26 | 0.01 | 0.27 | ||
| 2040 | 16.56 | 13.28 | -3.28 | ---- | -0.27 | 0.01 | 0.28 | ||
| 2041 | 16.53 | 13.28 | -3.25 | ---- | -0.28 | 0.01 | 0.29 | ||
| 2042 | 16.48 | 13.28 | -3.20 | ---- | -0.30 | 0.01 | 0.30 | ||
| 2043 | 16.42 | 13.28 | -3.15 | ---- | -0.31 | 0.01 | 0.32 | ||
| 2044 | 16.37 | 13.27 | -3.09 | ---- | -0.33 | 0.00 | 0.33 | ||
| 2045 | 16.32 | 13.27 | -3.05 | ---- | -0.34 | 0.00 | 0.35 | ||
| 2046 | 16.27 | 13.27 | -3.00 | ---- | -0.36 | 0.00 | 0.36 | ||
| 2047 | 16.23 | 13.27 | -2.96 | ---- | -0.37 | 0.00 | 0.37 | ||
| 2048 | 16.19 | 13.27 | -2.92 | ---- | -0.38 | 0.00 | 0.38 | ||
| 2049 | 16.16 | 13.27 | -2.89 | ---- | -0.40 | 0.00 | 0.40 | ||
| 2050 | 16.13 | 13.27 | -2.86 | ---- | -0.41 | 0.00 | 0.41 | ||
| 2051 | 16.11 | 13.27 | -2.84 | ---- | -0.43 | -0.00 | 0.43 | ||
| 2052 | 16.09 | 13.27 | -2.82 | ---- | -0.45 | -0.00 | 0.44 | ||
| 2053 | 16.08 | 13.27 | -2.81 | ---- | -0.46 | -0.00 | 0.46 | ||
| 2054 | 16.08 | 13.27 | -2.81 | ---- | -0.48 | -0.00 | 0.48 | ||
| 2055 | 16.09 | 13.27 | -2.82 | ---- | -0.50 | -0.00 | 0.50 | ||
| 2056 | 16.11 | 13.27 | -2.83 | ---- | -0.52 | -0.00 | 0.51 | ||
| 2057 | 16.13 | 13.28 | -2.86 | ---- | -0.53 | -0.01 | 0.53 | ||
| 2058 | 16.16 | 13.28 | -2.88 | ---- | -0.55 | -0.01 | 0.54 | ||
| 2059 | 16.20 | 13.28 | -2.91 | ---- | -0.56 | -0.01 | 0.55 | ||
| 2060 | 16.23 | 13.29 | -2.94 | ---- | -0.58 | -0.01 | 0.57 | ||
| 2061 | 16.27 | 13.29 | -2.98 | ---- | -0.59 | -0.01 | 0.58 | ||
| 2062 | 16.30 | 13.29 | -3.01 | ---- | -0.61 | -0.01 | 0.60 | ||
| 2063 | 16.34 | 13.30 | -3.04 | ---- | -0.62 | -0.01 | 0.61 | ||
| 2064 | 16.38 | 13.30 | -3.08 | ---- | -0.64 | -0.01 | 0.62 | ||
| 2065 | 16.42 | 13.30 | -3.12 | ---- | -0.65 | -0.01 | 0.64 | ||
| 2066 | 16.46 | 13.30 | -3.16 | ---- | -0.66 | -0.01 | 0.65 | ||
| 2067 | 16.51 | 13.31 | -3.20 | ---- | -0.67 | -0.01 | 0.66 | ||
| 2068 | 16.56 | 13.31 | -3.24 | ---- | -0.69 | -0.02 | 0.67 | ||
| 2069 | 16.60 | 13.32 | -3.29 | ---- | -0.70 | -0.02 | 0.68 | ||
| 2070 | 16.65 | 13.32 | -3.33 | ---- | -0.71 | -0.02 | 0.70 | ||
| 2071 | 16.70 | 13.32 | -3.37 | ---- | -0.72 | -0.02 | 0.71 | ||
| 2072 | 16.74 | 13.33 | -3.41 | ---- | -0.73 | -0.02 | 0.72 | ||
| 2073 | 16.77 | 13.33 | -3.44 | ---- | -0.74 | -0.02 | 0.72 | ||
| 2074 | 16.81 | 13.33 | -3.48 | ---- | -0.75 | -0.02 | 0.73 | ||
| 2075 | 16.84 | 13.33 | -3.50 | ---- | -0.75 | -0.02 | 0.73 | ||
| 2076 | 16.86 | 13.33 | -3.52 | ---- | -0.75 | -0.02 | 0.73 | ||
| 2077 | 16.87 | 13.34 | -3.53 | ---- | -0.76 | -0.02 | 0.74 | ||
| 2078 | 16.87 | 13.34 | -3.53 | ---- | -0.76 | -0.02 | 0.74 | ||
| 2079 | 16.86 | 13.33 | -3.52 | ---- | -0.76 | -0.02 | 0.74 | ||
| 2080 | 16.84 | 13.33 | -3.51 | ---- | -0.76 | -0.02 | 0.74 | ||
| 2081 | 16.82 | 13.33 | -3.49 | ---- | -0.77 | -0.02 | 0.75 | ||
| 2082 | 16.80 | 13.33 | -3.47 | ---- | -0.77 | -0.02 | 0.75 | ||
| 2083 | 16.78 | 13.33 | -3.45 | ---- | -0.77 | -0.02 | 0.75 | ||
| 2084 | 16.76 | 13.33 | -3.43 | ---- | -0.78 | -0.02 | 0.75 | ||
| 2085 | 16.75 | 13.33 | -3.42 | ---- | -0.78 | -0.02 | 0.76 | ||
| 2086 | 16.74 | 13.33 | -3.41 | ---- | -0.79 | -0.02 | 0.77 | ||
| 2087 | 16.74 | 13.33 | -3.41 | ---- | -0.79 | -0.02 | 0.77 | ||
| 2088 | 16.75 | 13.33 | -3.42 | ---- | -0.80 | -0.02 | 0.78 | ||
| 2089 | 16.76 | 13.33 | -3.43 | ---- | -0.81 | -0.02 | 0.78 | ||
| 2090 | 16.79 | 13.33 | -3.45 | ---- | -0.81 | -0.02 | 0.79 | ||
| 2091 | 16.82 | 13.34 | -3.48 | ---- | -0.82 | -0.02 | 0.79 | ||
| 2092 | 16.86 | 13.34 | -3.52 | ---- | -0.82 | -0.02 | 0.80 | ||
| 2093 | 16.90 | 13.34 | -3.56 | ---- | -0.83 | -0.02 | 0.80 | ||
Summarized Estimates
| Proposal | Change from Current Law | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Years | Cost rate |
Income rate |
Actuarial balance |
Year of reserve depletion1 |
Cost rate |
Income rate |
Actuarial balance |
||
| 2018-2092 | 16.25% | 13.84% | -2.41% | 2035 | -0.43% | -0.00% | 0.43% | ||
1 Under current law, the year of Trust Fund reserve depletion is 2034. |
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Based on Intermediate Assumptions of the 2018 Trustees Report.