Description of Proposed Provision:
B1.5: Progressive price indexing (60th percentile) of PIA factors beginning with individuals newly eligible for OASDI benefits in 2025: Create a new bend point at the 60th percentile of the AIME distribution of newly retired workers. Maintain current-law benefits for earners at the 60th percentile and below. Reduce the 32 and 15 percent factors above the 60th percentile such that the initial benefit for a worker with AIME equal to the taxable maximum grows by inflation rather than the growth in the SSA average wage index.
Financial Estimates for the OASDI Trust Fund Program
| Proposal | Change from Current Law | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Expressed as a percentage of current-law taxable payroll |
Trust fund ratio as of January 1 |
Expressed as a percentage of current-law taxable payroll |
|||||||
|
Calendar year |
Cost rate |
Income rate |
Annual balance |
Cost rate |
Income rate |
Annual balance |
|||
| 2018 | 13.81 | 12.64 | -1.17 | 288 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | ||
| 2019 | 13.95 | 12.87 | -1.08 | 272 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | ||
| 2020 | 14.12 | 12.89 | -1.23 | 256 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | ||
| 2021 | 14.27 | 12.92 | -1.35 | 239 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | ||
| 2022 | 14.44 | 12.95 | -1.49 | 223 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | ||
| 2023 | 14.62 | 12.97 | -1.66 | 206 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | ||
| 2024 | 14.80 | 12.99 | -1.81 | 188 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | ||
| 2025 | 14.98 | 13.01 | -1.97 | 171 | -0.00 | -0.00 | 0.00 | ||
| 2026 | 15.16 | 13.13 | -2.02 | 154 | -0.00 | -0.00 | 0.00 | ||
| 2027 | 15.36 | 13.15 | -2.21 | 137 | -0.00 | -0.00 | 0.00 | ||
| 2028 | 15.58 | 13.17 | -2.40 | 121 | -0.01 | -0.00 | 0.01 | ||
| 2029 | 15.78 | 13.19 | -2.59 | 104 | -0.01 | -0.00 | 0.01 | ||
| 2030 | 15.96 | 13.20 | -2.76 | 87 | -0.02 | -0.00 | 0.02 | ||
| 2031 | 16.13 | 13.21 | -2.91 | 69 | -0.03 | -0.00 | 0.03 | ||
| 2032 | 16.27 | 13.23 | -3.05 | 52 | -0.05 | -0.00 | 0.04 | ||
| 2033 | 16.39 | 13.23 | -3.15 | 34 | -0.06 | -0.00 | 0.06 | ||
| 2034 | 16.48 | 13.24 | -3.24 | 15 | -0.08 | -0.00 | 0.08 | ||
| 2035 | 16.54 | 13.25 | -3.30 | ---- | -0.11 | -0.01 | 0.10 | ||
| 2036 | 16.59 | 13.25 | -3.34 | ---- | -0.13 | -0.01 | 0.13 | ||
| 2037 | 16.62 | 13.26 | -3.36 | ---- | -0.16 | -0.01 | 0.16 | ||
| 2038 | 16.63 | 13.26 | -3.37 | ---- | -0.20 | -0.01 | 0.18 | ||
| 2039 | 16.60 | 13.26 | -3.34 | ---- | -0.23 | -0.01 | 0.22 | ||
| 2040 | 16.57 | 13.26 | -3.31 | ---- | -0.26 | -0.01 | 0.25 | ||
| 2041 | 16.51 | 13.26 | -3.25 | ---- | -0.30 | -0.02 | 0.28 | ||
| 2042 | 16.44 | 13.25 | -3.18 | ---- | -0.34 | -0.02 | 0.32 | ||
| 2043 | 16.36 | 13.25 | -3.11 | ---- | -0.38 | -0.02 | 0.36 | ||
| 2044 | 16.28 | 13.25 | -3.03 | ---- | -0.42 | -0.02 | 0.39 | ||
| 2045 | 16.20 | 13.24 | -2.96 | ---- | -0.46 | -0.03 | 0.43 | ||
| 2046 | 16.12 | 13.24 | -2.88 | ---- | -0.50 | -0.03 | 0.48 | ||
| 2047 | 16.05 | 13.24 | -2.82 | ---- | -0.55 | -0.03 | 0.52 | ||
| 2048 | 15.98 | 13.23 | -2.75 | ---- | -0.59 | -0.03 | 0.56 | ||
| 2049 | 15.91 | 13.23 | -2.68 | ---- | -0.64 | -0.04 | 0.61 | ||
| 2050 | 15.85 | 13.23 | -2.62 | ---- | -0.69 | -0.04 | 0.65 | ||
| 2051 | 15.79 | 13.23 | -2.57 | ---- | -0.74 | -0.04 | 0.70 | ||
| 2052 | 15.75 | 13.22 | -2.52 | ---- | -0.79 | -0.04 | 0.74 | ||
| 2053 | 15.70 | 13.22 | -2.48 | ---- | -0.84 | -0.05 | 0.79 | ||
| 2054 | 15.67 | 13.22 | -2.45 | ---- | -0.89 | -0.05 | 0.84 | ||
| 2055 | 15.65 | 13.22 | -2.43 | ---- | -0.94 | -0.05 | 0.89 | ||
| 2056 | 15.63 | 13.22 | -2.41 | ---- | -0.99 | -0.06 | 0.94 | ||
| 2057 | 15.62 | 13.22 | -2.40 | ---- | -1.05 | -0.06 | 0.99 | ||
| 2058 | 15.61 | 13.22 | -2.39 | ---- | -1.10 | -0.06 | 1.04 | ||
| 2059 | 15.61 | 13.22 | -2.38 | ---- | -1.15 | -0.07 | 1.09 | ||
| 2060 | 15.60 | 13.23 | -2.38 | ---- | -1.20 | -0.07 | 1.13 | ||
| 2061 | 15.60 | 13.23 | -2.38 | ---- | -1.26 | -0.07 | 1.18 | ||
| 2062 | 15.60 | 13.23 | -2.38 | ---- | -1.31 | -0.08 | 1.23 | ||
| 2063 | 15.61 | 13.23 | -2.38 | ---- | -1.35 | -0.08 | 1.28 | ||
| 2064 | 15.61 | 13.23 | -2.38 | ---- | -1.40 | -0.08 | 1.32 | ||
| 2065 | 15.62 | 13.23 | -2.39 | ---- | -1.45 | -0.08 | 1.36 | ||
| 2066 | 15.63 | 13.23 | -2.40 | ---- | -1.49 | -0.09 | 1.40 | ||
| 2067 | 15.65 | 13.23 | -2.42 | ---- | -1.53 | -0.09 | 1.44 | ||
| 2068 | 15.67 | 13.23 | -2.43 | ---- | -1.58 | -0.09 | 1.48 | ||
| 2069 | 15.69 | 13.24 | -2.45 | ---- | -1.61 | -0.09 | 1.52 | ||
| 2070 | 15.71 | 13.24 | -2.48 | ---- | -1.65 | -0.10 | 1.55 | ||
| 2071 | 15.74 | 13.24 | -2.49 | ---- | -1.69 | -0.10 | 1.59 | ||
| 2072 | 15.75 | 13.24 | -2.51 | ---- | -1.72 | -0.10 | 1.62 | ||
| 2073 | 15.77 | 13.24 | -2.52 | ---- | -1.75 | -0.10 | 1.64 | ||
| 2074 | 15.78 | 13.24 | -2.54 | ---- | -1.77 | -0.10 | 1.67 | ||
| 2075 | 15.79 | 13.25 | -2.54 | ---- | -1.80 | -0.11 | 1.69 | ||
| 2076 | 15.79 | 13.25 | -2.54 | ---- | -1.82 | -0.11 | 1.71 | ||
| 2077 | 15.78 | 13.25 | -2.54 | ---- | -1.84 | -0.11 | 1.73 | ||
| 2078 | 15.77 | 13.25 | -2.52 | ---- | -1.86 | -0.11 | 1.75 | ||
| 2079 | 15.75 | 13.25 | -2.50 | ---- | -1.87 | -0.11 | 1.76 | ||
| 2080 | 15.72 | 13.24 | -2.48 | ---- | -1.88 | -0.11 | 1.77 | ||
| 2081 | 15.70 | 13.24 | -2.46 | ---- | -1.89 | -0.11 | 1.78 | ||
| 2082 | 15.67 | 13.24 | -2.43 | ---- | -1.90 | -0.11 | 1.79 | ||
| 2083 | 15.65 | 13.24 | -2.41 | ---- | -1.91 | -0.11 | 1.79 | ||
| 2084 | 15.63 | 13.24 | -2.39 | ---- | -1.91 | -0.11 | 1.80 | ||
| 2085 | 15.61 | 13.24 | -2.38 | ---- | -1.92 | -0.11 | 1.80 | ||
| 2086 | 15.60 | 13.24 | -2.37 | ---- | -1.92 | -0.11 | 1.81 | ||
| 2087 | 15.60 | 13.24 | -2.37 | ---- | -1.93 | -0.11 | 1.81 | ||
| 2088 | 15.61 | 13.24 | -2.37 | ---- | -1.93 | -0.11 | 1.82 | ||
| 2089 | 15.63 | 13.24 | -2.39 | ---- | -1.94 | -0.12 | 1.83 | ||
| 2090 | 15.65 | 13.24 | -2.41 | ---- | -1.95 | -0.12 | 1.83 | ||
| 2091 | 15.68 | 13.24 | -2.44 | ---- | -1.95 | -0.12 | 1.84 | ||
| 2092 | 15.72 | 13.24 | -2.47 | ---- | -1.96 | -0.12 | 1.84 | ||
| 2093 | 15.76 | 13.25 | -2.51 | ---- | -1.97 | -0.12 | 1.85 | ||
Summarized Estimates
| Proposal | Change from Current Law | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Years | Cost rate |
Income rate |
Actuarial balance |
Year of reserve depletion1 |
Cost rate |
Income rate |
Actuarial balance |
||
| 2018-2092 | 15.86% | 13.80% | -2.06% | 2034 | -0.83% | -0.05% | 0.78% | ||
1 Under current law, the year of Trust Fund reserve depletion is 2034. |
|||||||||
Based on Intermediate Assumptions of the 2018 Trustees Report.