Description of Proposed Provision:
B3.11: Increase the first PIA factor from 90 percent to 93 percent for all beneficiaries eligible as of January 2020 and for those newly eligible for benefits after 2019.
Financial Estimates for the OASDI Trust Fund Program
| Proposal | Change from Current Law | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Expressed as a percentage of current-law taxable payroll |
Trust fund ratio as of January 1 |
Expressed as a percentage of current-law taxable payroll |
|||||||
|
Calendar year |
Cost rate |
Income rate |
Annual balance |
Cost rate |
Income rate |
Annual balance |
|||
| 2018 | 13.81 | 12.64 | -1.17 | 288 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | ||
| 2019 | 13.95 | 12.87 | -1.08 | 272 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | ||
| 2020 | 14.34 | 12.90 | -1.44 | 252 | 0.22 | 0.01 | -0.21 | ||
| 2021 | 14.49 | 12.93 | -1.57 | 234 | 0.22 | 0.01 | -0.21 | ||
| 2022 | 14.66 | 12.96 | -1.71 | 216 | 0.22 | 0.01 | -0.22 | ||
| 2023 | 14.85 | 12.97 | -1.87 | 198 | 0.23 | 0.01 | -0.22 | ||
| 2024 | 15.03 | 13.00 | -2.03 | 180 | 0.23 | 0.01 | -0.22 | ||
| 2025 | 15.21 | 13.02 | -2.20 | 162 | 0.23 | 0.01 | -0.22 | ||
| 2026 | 15.39 | 13.14 | -2.25 | 144 | 0.23 | 0.01 | -0.22 | ||
| 2027 | 15.60 | 13.17 | -2.44 | 126 | 0.24 | 0.01 | -0.23 | ||
| 2028 | 15.82 | 13.18 | -2.64 | 108 | 0.24 | 0.01 | -0.23 | ||
| 2029 | 16.04 | 13.20 | -2.84 | 91 | 0.24 | 0.01 | -0.23 | ||
| 2030 | 16.23 | 13.22 | -3.02 | 72 | 0.25 | 0.01 | -0.23 | ||
| 2031 | 16.41 | 13.23 | -3.18 | 54 | 0.25 | 0.01 | -0.24 | ||
| 2032 | 16.57 | 13.24 | -3.33 | 35 | 0.25 | 0.01 | -0.24 | ||
| 2033 | 16.71 | 13.25 | -3.46 | 16 | 0.25 | 0.01 | -0.24 | ||
| 2034 | 16.82 | 13.26 | -3.56 | ---- | 0.26 | 0.01 | -0.24 | ||
| 2035 | 16.91 | 13.27 | -3.64 | ---- | 0.26 | 0.01 | -0.24 | ||
| 2036 | 16.98 | 13.27 | -3.71 | ---- | 0.26 | 0.01 | -0.25 | ||
| 2037 | 17.04 | 13.28 | -3.76 | ---- | 0.26 | 0.01 | -0.25 | ||
| 2038 | 17.08 | 13.28 | -3.80 | ---- | 0.26 | 0.01 | -0.25 | ||
| 2039 | 17.09 | 13.29 | -3.81 | ---- | 0.26 | 0.01 | -0.25 | ||
| 2040 | 17.09 | 13.29 | -3.80 | ---- | 0.26 | 0.01 | -0.25 | ||
| 2041 | 17.07 | 13.29 | -3.78 | ---- | 0.26 | 0.01 | -0.25 | ||
| 2042 | 17.04 | 13.29 | -3.75 | ---- | 0.26 | 0.01 | -0.25 | ||
| 2043 | 16.99 | 13.28 | -3.71 | ---- | 0.26 | 0.01 | -0.25 | ||
| 2044 | 16.95 | 13.28 | -3.67 | ---- | 0.26 | 0.01 | -0.25 | ||
| 2045 | 16.92 | 13.28 | -3.64 | ---- | 0.26 | 0.01 | -0.24 | ||
| 2046 | 16.89 | 13.28 | -3.60 | ---- | 0.26 | 0.01 | -0.24 | ||
| 2047 | 16.86 | 13.28 | -3.58 | ---- | 0.26 | 0.01 | -0.24 | ||
| 2048 | 16.83 | 13.28 | -3.55 | ---- | 0.26 | 0.01 | -0.24 | ||
| 2049 | 16.81 | 13.28 | -3.53 | ---- | 0.26 | 0.01 | -0.24 | ||
| 2050 | 16.80 | 13.28 | -3.52 | ---- | 0.26 | 0.01 | -0.24 | ||
| 2051 | 16.79 | 13.28 | -3.51 | ---- | 0.26 | 0.01 | -0.24 | ||
| 2052 | 16.79 | 13.28 | -3.51 | ---- | 0.26 | 0.01 | -0.24 | ||
| 2053 | 16.80 | 13.28 | -3.52 | ---- | 0.26 | 0.01 | -0.24 | ||
| 2054 | 16.82 | 13.29 | -3.53 | ---- | 0.26 | 0.01 | -0.24 | ||
| 2055 | 16.85 | 13.29 | -3.56 | ---- | 0.26 | 0.01 | -0.24 | ||
| 2056 | 16.88 | 13.29 | -3.59 | ---- | 0.26 | 0.01 | -0.24 | ||
| 2057 | 16.92 | 13.30 | -3.63 | ---- | 0.26 | 0.01 | -0.25 | ||
| 2058 | 16.97 | 13.30 | -3.67 | ---- | 0.26 | 0.01 | -0.25 | ||
| 2059 | 17.02 | 13.30 | -3.72 | ---- | 0.26 | 0.01 | -0.25 | ||
| 2060 | 17.07 | 13.31 | -3.76 | ---- | 0.26 | 0.01 | -0.25 | ||
| 2061 | 17.12 | 13.31 | -3.81 | ---- | 0.26 | 0.01 | -0.25 | ||
| 2062 | 17.17 | 13.32 | -3.86 | ---- | 0.26 | 0.01 | -0.25 | ||
| 2063 | 17.23 | 13.32 | -3.90 | ---- | 0.26 | 0.01 | -0.25 | ||
| 2064 | 17.28 | 13.33 | -3.95 | ---- | 0.26 | 0.01 | -0.25 | ||
| 2065 | 17.33 | 13.33 | -4.00 | ---- | 0.27 | 0.01 | -0.25 | ||
| 2066 | 17.39 | 13.33 | -4.06 | ---- | 0.27 | 0.01 | -0.25 | ||
| 2067 | 17.45 | 13.34 | -4.11 | ---- | 0.27 | 0.01 | -0.25 | ||
| 2068 | 17.51 | 13.34 | -4.17 | ---- | 0.27 | 0.01 | -0.25 | ||
| 2069 | 17.57 | 13.35 | -4.23 | ---- | 0.27 | 0.01 | -0.25 | ||
| 2070 | 17.63 | 13.35 | -4.28 | ---- | 0.27 | 0.01 | -0.26 | ||
| 2071 | 17.69 | 13.35 | -4.34 | ---- | 0.27 | 0.01 | -0.26 | ||
| 2072 | 17.74 | 13.36 | -4.38 | ---- | 0.27 | 0.01 | -0.26 | ||
| 2073 | 17.79 | 13.36 | -4.42 | ---- | 0.27 | 0.01 | -0.26 | ||
| 2074 | 17.83 | 13.36 | -4.46 | ---- | 0.27 | 0.01 | -0.26 | ||
| 2075 | 17.86 | 13.37 | -4.49 | ---- | 0.27 | 0.01 | -0.26 | ||
| 2076 | 17.88 | 13.37 | -4.51 | ---- | 0.27 | 0.02 | -0.26 | ||
| 2077 | 17.90 | 13.37 | -4.53 | ---- | 0.27 | 0.02 | -0.26 | ||
| 2078 | 17.90 | 13.37 | -4.53 | ---- | 0.27 | 0.02 | -0.26 | ||
| 2079 | 17.89 | 13.37 | -4.52 | ---- | 0.27 | 0.02 | -0.26 | ||
| 2080 | 17.88 | 13.37 | -4.51 | ---- | 0.27 | 0.02 | -0.26 | ||
| 2081 | 17.86 | 13.37 | -4.49 | ---- | 0.27 | 0.02 | -0.26 | ||
| 2082 | 17.84 | 13.37 | -4.48 | ---- | 0.27 | 0.01 | -0.26 | ||
| 2083 | 17.83 | 13.37 | -4.46 | ---- | 0.27 | 0.01 | -0.26 | ||
| 2084 | 17.81 | 13.37 | -4.45 | ---- | 0.27 | 0.01 | -0.26 | ||
| 2085 | 17.80 | 13.37 | -4.44 | ---- | 0.27 | 0.01 | -0.26 | ||
| 2086 | 17.80 | 13.37 | -4.44 | ---- | 0.27 | 0.01 | -0.26 | ||
| 2087 | 17.81 | 13.37 | -4.44 | ---- | 0.27 | 0.01 | -0.26 | ||
| 2088 | 17.82 | 13.37 | -4.45 | ---- | 0.27 | 0.01 | -0.26 | ||
| 2089 | 17.84 | 13.37 | -4.47 | ---- | 0.27 | 0.01 | -0.26 | ||
| 2090 | 17.87 | 13.37 | -4.50 | ---- | 0.27 | 0.02 | -0.26 | ||
| 2091 | 17.91 | 13.37 | -4.54 | ---- | 0.27 | 0.02 | -0.26 | ||
| 2092 | 17.95 | 13.38 | -4.58 | ---- | 0.28 | 0.02 | -0.26 | ||
| 2093 | 18.00 | 13.38 | -4.62 | ---- | 0.28 | 0.02 | -0.26 | ||
Summarized Estimates
| Proposal | Change from Current Law | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Years | Cost rate |
Income rate |
Actuarial balance |
Year of reserve depletion1 |
Cost rate |
Income rate |
Actuarial balance |
||
| 2018-2092 | 16.94% | 13.86% | -3.08% | 2033 | 0.25% | 0.01% | -0.24% | ||
1 Under current law, the year of Trust Fund reserve depletion is 2034. |
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Based on Intermediate Assumptions of the 2018 Trustees Report.