Description of Proposed Provision:
B3.14: Beginning with those newly eligible for OASDI benefits in 2020, reduce the 15 percent PIA factor by 2 percentage points per year so that it reaches 5 percent for those newly eligible in 2024 and later.
Financial Estimates for the OASDI Trust Fund Program
| Proposal | Change from Current Law | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Expressed as a percentage of current-law taxable payroll |
Trust fund ratio as of January 1 |
Expressed as a percentage of current-law taxable payroll |
|||||||
|
Calendar year |
Cost rate |
Income rate |
Annual balance |
Cost rate |
Income rate |
Annual balance |
|||
| 2018 | 13.81 | 12.64 | -1.17 | 288 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | ||
| 2019 | 13.95 | 12.87 | -1.08 | 272 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | ||
| 2020 | 14.12 | 12.89 | -1.23 | 256 | -0.00 | -0.00 | 0.00 | ||
| 2021 | 14.27 | 12.92 | -1.35 | 239 | -0.00 | -0.00 | 0.00 | ||
| 2022 | 14.43 | 12.95 | -1.49 | 223 | -0.00 | -0.00 | 0.00 | ||
| 2023 | 14.61 | 12.96 | -1.65 | 206 | -0.01 | -0.00 | 0.01 | ||
| 2024 | 14.79 | 12.99 | -1.80 | 189 | -0.01 | -0.00 | 0.01 | ||
| 2025 | 14.96 | 13.01 | -1.95 | 172 | -0.02 | -0.00 | 0.02 | ||
| 2026 | 15.12 | 13.13 | -1.99 | 155 | -0.03 | -0.00 | 0.03 | ||
| 2027 | 15.32 | 13.15 | -2.17 | 138 | -0.05 | -0.00 | 0.05 | ||
| 2028 | 15.52 | 13.17 | -2.35 | 122 | -0.07 | -0.00 | 0.06 | ||
| 2029 | 15.70 | 13.18 | -2.52 | 105 | -0.09 | -0.00 | 0.08 | ||
| 2030 | 15.87 | 13.20 | -2.67 | 89 | -0.11 | -0.01 | 0.11 | ||
| 2031 | 16.02 | 13.21 | -2.81 | 72 | -0.14 | -0.01 | 0.13 | ||
| 2032 | 16.15 | 13.22 | -2.93 | 55 | -0.17 | -0.01 | 0.16 | ||
| 2033 | 16.26 | 13.23 | -3.03 | 37 | -0.19 | -0.01 | 0.18 | ||
| 2034 | 16.35 | 13.23 | -3.11 | 19 | -0.22 | -0.01 | 0.20 | ||
| 2035 | 16.41 | 13.24 | -3.17 | 1 | -0.24 | -0.01 | 0.23 | ||
| 2036 | 16.46 | 13.25 | -3.21 | ---- | -0.26 | -0.01 | 0.25 | ||
| 2037 | 16.50 | 13.25 | -3.25 | ---- | -0.29 | -0.02 | 0.27 | ||
| 2038 | 16.52 | 13.25 | -3.26 | ---- | -0.31 | -0.02 | 0.29 | ||
| 2039 | 16.51 | 13.25 | -3.25 | ---- | -0.32 | -0.02 | 0.31 | ||
| 2040 | 16.49 | 13.25 | -3.23 | ---- | -0.34 | -0.02 | 0.32 | ||
| 2041 | 16.45 | 13.25 | -3.20 | ---- | -0.36 | -0.02 | 0.34 | ||
| 2042 | 16.40 | 13.25 | -3.15 | ---- | -0.37 | -0.02 | 0.35 | ||
| 2043 | 16.35 | 13.25 | -3.10 | ---- | -0.38 | -0.02 | 0.36 | ||
| 2044 | 16.30 | 13.25 | -3.05 | ---- | -0.40 | -0.02 | 0.37 | ||
| 2045 | 16.25 | 13.25 | -3.01 | ---- | -0.41 | -0.02 | 0.38 | ||
| 2046 | 16.21 | 13.24 | -2.97 | ---- | -0.42 | -0.02 | 0.39 | ||
| 2047 | 16.17 | 13.24 | -2.93 | ---- | -0.43 | -0.02 | 0.40 | ||
| 2048 | 16.14 | 13.24 | -2.90 | ---- | -0.44 | -0.03 | 0.41 | ||
| 2049 | 16.11 | 13.24 | -2.87 | ---- | -0.44 | -0.03 | 0.42 | ||
| 2050 | 16.09 | 13.24 | -2.85 | ---- | -0.45 | -0.03 | 0.42 | ||
| 2051 | 16.08 | 13.24 | -2.84 | ---- | -0.46 | -0.03 | 0.43 | ||
| 2052 | 16.07 | 13.24 | -2.83 | ---- | -0.46 | -0.03 | 0.44 | ||
| 2053 | 16.08 | 13.24 | -2.83 | ---- | -0.47 | -0.03 | 0.44 | ||
| 2054 | 16.09 | 13.25 | -2.84 | ---- | -0.47 | -0.03 | 0.44 | ||
| 2055 | 16.11 | 13.25 | -2.87 | ---- | -0.48 | -0.03 | 0.45 | ||
| 2056 | 16.15 | 13.25 | -2.89 | ---- | -0.48 | -0.03 | 0.45 | ||
| 2057 | 16.18 | 13.25 | -2.93 | ---- | -0.48 | -0.03 | 0.45 | ||
| 2058 | 16.23 | 13.26 | -2.97 | ---- | -0.49 | -0.03 | 0.46 | ||
| 2059 | 16.27 | 13.26 | -3.01 | ---- | -0.49 | -0.03 | 0.46 | ||
| 2060 | 16.32 | 13.27 | -3.05 | ---- | -0.49 | -0.03 | 0.46 | ||
| 2061 | 16.37 | 13.27 | -3.10 | ---- | -0.49 | -0.03 | 0.46 | ||
| 2062 | 16.41 | 13.27 | -3.14 | ---- | -0.49 | -0.03 | 0.47 | ||
| 2063 | 16.47 | 13.28 | -3.19 | ---- | -0.50 | -0.03 | 0.47 | ||
| 2064 | 16.52 | 13.28 | -3.23 | ---- | -0.50 | -0.03 | 0.47 | ||
| 2065 | 16.57 | 13.28 | -3.28 | ---- | -0.50 | -0.03 | 0.47 | ||
| 2066 | 16.62 | 13.29 | -3.33 | ---- | -0.50 | -0.03 | 0.47 | ||
| 2067 | 16.68 | 13.29 | -3.39 | ---- | -0.50 | -0.03 | 0.48 | ||
| 2068 | 16.74 | 13.30 | -3.44 | ---- | -0.51 | -0.03 | 0.48 | ||
| 2069 | 16.79 | 13.30 | -3.49 | ---- | -0.51 | -0.03 | 0.48 | ||
| 2070 | 16.85 | 13.30 | -3.55 | ---- | -0.51 | -0.03 | 0.48 | ||
| 2071 | 16.91 | 13.31 | -3.60 | ---- | -0.51 | -0.03 | 0.48 | ||
| 2072 | 16.95 | 13.31 | -3.64 | ---- | -0.51 | -0.03 | 0.48 | ||
| 2073 | 17.00 | 13.32 | -3.68 | ---- | -0.52 | -0.03 | 0.49 | ||
| 2074 | 17.04 | 13.32 | -3.72 | ---- | -0.52 | -0.03 | 0.49 | ||
| 2075 | 17.07 | 13.32 | -3.75 | ---- | -0.52 | -0.03 | 0.49 | ||
| 2076 | 17.09 | 13.32 | -3.77 | ---- | -0.52 | -0.03 | 0.49 | ||
| 2077 | 17.10 | 13.32 | -3.78 | ---- | -0.52 | -0.03 | 0.49 | ||
| 2078 | 17.10 | 13.32 | -3.78 | ---- | -0.52 | -0.03 | 0.49 | ||
| 2079 | 17.10 | 13.32 | -3.77 | ---- | -0.52 | -0.03 | 0.49 | ||
| 2080 | 17.08 | 13.32 | -3.76 | ---- | -0.52 | -0.03 | 0.49 | ||
| 2081 | 17.07 | 13.32 | -3.74 | ---- | -0.52 | -0.03 | 0.49 | ||
| 2082 | 17.05 | 13.32 | -3.73 | ---- | -0.52 | -0.03 | 0.49 | ||
| 2083 | 17.03 | 13.32 | -3.71 | ---- | -0.52 | -0.03 | 0.49 | ||
| 2084 | 17.02 | 13.32 | -3.70 | ---- | -0.52 | -0.03 | 0.49 | ||
| 2085 | 17.01 | 13.32 | -3.69 | ---- | -0.52 | -0.03 | 0.49 | ||
| 2086 | 17.01 | 13.32 | -3.69 | ---- | -0.52 | -0.03 | 0.49 | ||
| 2087 | 17.01 | 13.32 | -3.69 | ---- | -0.52 | -0.03 | 0.49 | ||
| 2088 | 17.03 | 13.32 | -3.71 | ---- | -0.52 | -0.03 | 0.49 | ||
| 2089 | 17.05 | 13.32 | -3.73 | ---- | -0.52 | -0.03 | 0.49 | ||
| 2090 | 17.08 | 13.32 | -3.75 | ---- | -0.52 | -0.03 | 0.49 | ||
| 2091 | 17.11 | 13.33 | -3.79 | ---- | -0.52 | -0.03 | 0.49 | ||
| 2092 | 17.15 | 13.33 | -3.83 | ---- | -0.52 | -0.03 | 0.49 | ||
| 2093 | 17.20 | 13.33 | -3.87 | ---- | -0.53 | -0.03 | 0.49 | ||
Summarized Estimates
| Proposal | Change from Current Law | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Years | Cost rate |
Income rate |
Actuarial balance |
Year of reserve depletion1 |
Cost rate |
Income rate |
Actuarial balance |
||
| 2018-2092 | 16.33% | 13.82% | -2.51% | 2035 | -0.35% | -0.02% | 0.33% | ||
1 Under current law, the year of Trust Fund reserve depletion is 2034. |
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Based on Intermediate Assumptions of the 2018 Trustees Report.