Long Range Solvency Provisions

Description of Proposed Provision:
F3: Expand covered earnings to include employer and employee premiums for employer-sponsored group health insurance (ESI). Starting in 2023, phase out the OASDI payroll tax exclusion for ESI premiums. Set an exclusion level at the 75th percentile of premium distribution in 2023, with amounts above that subject to the payroll tax. Reduce the exclusion level each year by 10 percent of the 2023 exclusion level until fully eliminated in 2032. Eliminate the excise tax on ESI premiums starting in 2023.

Financial Estimates for the OASDI Trust Fund Program

	Proposal				Change from Current Law
	Expressed as a percentage of current-law taxable payroll			Trust fund ratio as of January 1	Expressed as a percentage of current-law taxable payroll
Calendar year	Cost rate	Income rate	Annual balance	Trust fund ratio as of January 1	Cost rate	Income rate	Annual balance
2019	13.91	12.85	-1.06	273	0.00	0.00	0.00
2020	13.94	12.87	-1.07	260	0.00	0.00	0.00
2021	14.09	12.90	-1.19	245	0.00	0.00	0.00
2022	14.23	12.92	-1.31	229	0.00	0.00	0.00
2023	14.40	13.09	-1.31	213	0.00	0.15	0.15
2024	14.59	13.28	-1.31	198	0.00	0.31	0.31
2025	14.79	13.45	-1.33	183	0.00	0.47	0.47
2026	14.99	13.74	-1.25	169	0.00	0.63	0.63
2027	15.20	13.92	-1.28	157	0.00	0.79	0.78
2028	15.44	14.12	-1.32	145	0.01	0.95	0.94
2029	15.64	14.30	-1.33	134	0.01	1.11	1.10
2030	15.82	14.48	-1.34	124	0.02	1.28	1.26
2031	15.99	14.66	-1.33	114	0.03	1.45	1.42
2032	16.15	14.85	-1.30	106	0.04	1.62	1.58
2033	16.28	14.87	-1.41	98	0.05	1.63	1.59
2034	16.39	14.89	-1.50	90	0.06	1.65	1.58
2035	16.48	14.91	-1.57	81	0.08	1.66	1.58
2036	16.56	14.93	-1.63	72	0.10	1.67	1.57
2037	16.64	14.94	-1.70	63	0.12	1.68	1.56
2038	16.71	14.96	-1.75	54	0.14	1.69	1.55
2039	16.77	14.97	-1.80	44	0.17	1.70	1.54
2040	16.81	14.99	-1.82	34	0.20	1.71	1.52
2041	16.84	15.00	-1.84	23	0.22	1.72	1.50
2042	16.85	15.01	-1.84	13	0.26	1.73	1.48
2043	16.85	15.01	-1.83	2	0.29	1.74	1.45
2044	16.84	15.02	-1.83	----	0.32	1.75	1.42
2045	16.85	15.02	-1.82	----	0.36	1.75	1.39
2046	16.85	15.03	-1.82	----	0.40	1.76	1.36
2047	16.86	15.03	-1.83	----	0.43	1.76	1.33
2048	16.88	15.03	-1.84	----	0.47	1.76	1.29
2049	16.90	15.03	-1.86	----	0.51	1.77	1.25
2050	16.92	15.04	-1.88	----	0.55	1.77	1.22
2051	16.95	15.04	-1.91	----	0.59	1.77	1.18
2052	17.00	15.04	-1.95	----	0.63	1.77	1.14
2053	17.05	15.05	-2.00	----	0.68	1.77	1.10
2054	17.10	15.05	-2.05	----	0.72	1.78	1.06
2055	17.17	15.06	-2.11	----	0.76	1.78	1.02
2056	17.24	15.06	-2.18	----	0.80	1.78	0.98
2057	17.33	15.07	-2.26	----	0.85	1.78	0.94
2058	17.42	15.08	-2.34	----	0.89	1.79	0.90
2059	17.51	15.09	-2.43	----	0.94	1.79	0.86
2060	17.61	15.10	-2.51	----	0.98	1.80	0.82
2061	17.70	15.11	-2.60	----	1.02	1.80	0.78
2062	17.80	15.12	-2.68	----	1.07	1.81	0.75
2063	17.90	15.13	-2.77	----	1.11	1.82	0.71
2064	17.99	15.14	-2.85	----	1.15	1.83	0.68
2065	18.09	15.15	-2.93	----	1.19	1.84	0.65
2066	18.18	15.17	-3.02	----	1.23	1.85	0.62
2067	18.28	15.18	-3.10	----	1.27	1.86	0.59
2068	18.38	15.20	-3.18	----	1.30	1.87	0.57
2069	18.47	15.21	-3.26	----	1.33	1.88	0.54
2070	18.56	15.23	-3.33	----	1.37	1.89	0.52
2071	18.65	15.24	-3.41	----	1.40	1.90	0.50
2072	18.72	15.26	-3.47	----	1.42	1.91	0.49
2073	18.80	15.27	-3.52	----	1.45	1.92	0.47
2074	18.86	15.29	-3.58	----	1.47	1.93	0.46
2075	18.92	15.30	-3.62	----	1.49	1.95	0.46
2076	18.97	15.32	-3.65	----	1.51	1.96	0.45
2077	19.00	15.34	-3.66	----	1.52	1.98	0.45
2078	19.02	15.35	-3.67	----	1.54	1.99	0.46
2079	19.02	15.37	-3.65	----	1.55	2.01	0.46
2080	19.02	15.38	-3.63	----	1.55	2.02	0.47
2081	19.00	15.40	-3.61	----	1.56	2.04	0.48
2082	18.99	15.41	-3.57	----	1.56	2.05	0.49
2083	18.97	15.43	-3.54	----	1.57	2.07	0.50
2084	18.95	15.44	-3.51	----	1.57	2.08	0.51
2085	18.93	15.45	-3.47	----	1.57	2.10	0.53
2086	18.91	15.47	-3.45	----	1.57	2.11	0.54
2087	18.91	15.48	-3.43	----	1.58	2.13	0.55
2088	18.91	15.49	-3.42	----	1.58	2.14	0.56
2089	18.93	15.51	-3.42	----	1.59	2.15	0.56
2090	18.96	15.52	-3.43	----	1.60	2.17	0.57
2091	19.00	15.54	-3.46	----	1.61	2.18	0.57
2092	19.05	15.55	-3.49	----	1.62	2.19	0.58
2093	19.10	15.57	-3.53	----	1.63	2.21	0.58
2094	19.16	15.59	-3.58	----	1.64	2.22	0.58

Summarized Estimates

	Proposal				Change from Current Law
Years	Cost rate	Income rate	Actuarial balance	Year of reserve depletion¹	Cost rate	Income rate	Actuarial balance
2019-2093	17.32%	15.40%	-1.92%	2043	0.72%	1.59%	0.87%
¹ Under current law, the year of Trust Fund reserve depletion is 2035.

Based on Intermediate Assumptions of the 2019 Trustees Report.

Detailed Single Year Tables

Financial Estimates for the OASDI Trust Fund Program

Summarized Estimates