Long Range Solvency Provisions

Description of Proposed Provision:
B5.11: Beginning for those newly eligible in 2021, reconfigure the special minimum benefit: (a) The number of years of work (YOWs) is determined as total quarters of coverage divided by 4, ignoring any fraction. Childcare years are granted to parents who have a child under 6, with a limit of 5 such years. (b) For beneficiaries becoming newly eligible in 2021, set the initial special minimum benefit for 30+ YOWs equal to 100 percent of the monthly HHS poverty level for 2020. For beneficiaries becoming newly eligible after 2021, the initial special minimum benefit is indexed by the AWI. For workers between 11 and 29 YOWs, reduce the special minimum by 3 1/3 percentage points per YOW so that at 29 YOWs the minimum would be 96 2/3% of poverty, ..., down to 11 YOWs at 36 2/3% of poverty. No minimum for 10 or fewer YOWs.

Financial Estimates for the OASDI Trust Fund Program

	Proposal				Change from Current Law
	Expressed as a percentage of current-law taxable payroll			Trust fund ratio as of January 1	Expressed as a percentage of current-law taxable payroll
Calendar year	Cost rate	Income rate	Annual balance	Trust fund ratio as of January 1	Cost rate	Income rate	Annual balance
2020	13.92	13.00	-0.92	261	0.00	0.00	0.00
2021	14.05	12.90	-1.15	248	0.00	0.00	-0.00
2022	14.25	12.93	-1.33	233	0.00	0.00	-0.00
2023	14.44	12.95	-1.50	217	0.01	0.00	-0.01
2024	14.66	12.98	-1.68	200	0.01	0.00	-0.01
2025	14.89	13.00	-1.90	182	0.02	0.00	-0.02
2026	15.13	13.13	-2.01	165	0.02	0.00	-0.02
2027	15.37	13.15	-2.22	147	0.03	0.00	-0.03
2028	15.62	13.19	-2.43	129	0.03	0.00	-0.03
2029	15.87	13.23	-2.64	111	0.04	0.00	-0.04
2030	16.07	13.24	-2.82	93	0.05	0.00	-0.04
2031	16.24	13.26	-2.98	74	0.05	0.00	-0.05
2032	16.39	13.27	-3.12	56	0.06	0.00	-0.05
2033	16.51	13.28	-3.23	37	0.06	0.00	-0.06
2034	16.62	13.29	-3.33	18	0.07	0.00	-0.06
2035	16.70	13.30	-3.40	----	0.07	0.00	-0.07
2036	16.76	13.30	-3.46	----	0.08	0.00	-0.07
2037	16.82	13.31	-3.51	----	0.08	0.00	-0.08
2038	16.87	13.31	-3.56	----	0.09	0.00	-0.08
2039	16.91	13.32	-3.59	----	0.09	0.00	-0.09
2040	16.94	13.32	-3.62	----	0.10	0.01	-0.09
2041	16.96	13.32	-3.63	----	0.10	0.01	-0.09
2042	16.96	13.32	-3.64	----	0.10	0.01	-0.10
2043	16.96	13.33	-3.63	----	0.11	0.01	-0.10
2044	16.95	13.33	-3.62	----	0.11	0.01	-0.11
2045	16.94	13.33	-3.61	----	0.12	0.01	-0.11
2046	16.92	13.33	-3.60	----	0.12	0.01	-0.12
2047	16.92	13.33	-3.59	----	0.13	0.01	-0.12
2048	16.92	13.33	-3.59	----	0.13	0.01	-0.12
2049	16.92	13.33	-3.59	----	0.14	0.01	-0.13
2050	16.93	13.33	-3.60	----	0.14	0.01	-0.13
2051	16.94	13.33	-3.60	----	0.14	0.01	-0.14
2052	16.96	13.33	-3.62	----	0.15	0.01	-0.14
2053	16.98	13.34	-3.64	----	0.15	0.01	-0.14
2054	17.01	13.34	-3.67	----	0.15	0.01	-0.15
2055	17.05	13.34	-3.71	----	0.16	0.01	-0.15
2056	17.09	13.35	-3.75	----	0.16	0.01	-0.15
2057	17.14	13.35	-3.79	----	0.16	0.01	-0.15
2058	17.20	13.36	-3.84	----	0.17	0.01	-0.16
2059	17.25	13.36	-3.89	----	0.17	0.01	-0.16
2060	17.31	13.37	-3.95	----	0.17	0.01	-0.16
2061	17.38	13.37	-4.01	----	0.17	0.01	-0.16
2062	17.44	13.38	-4.06	----	0.17	0.01	-0.16
2063	17.51	13.38	-4.12	----	0.18	0.01	-0.17
2064	17.57	13.39	-4.18	----	0.18	0.01	-0.17
2065	17.64	13.39	-4.25	----	0.18	0.01	-0.17
2066	17.71	13.40	-4.31	----	0.18	0.01	-0.17
2067	17.78	13.40	-4.37	----	0.18	0.01	-0.17
2068	17.85	13.41	-4.44	----	0.18	0.01	-0.17
2069	17.92	13.41	-4.51	----	0.18	0.01	-0.17
2070	17.99	13.42	-4.57	----	0.19	0.01	-0.18
2071	18.06	13.42	-4.64	----	0.19	0.01	-0.18
2072	18.12	13.43	-4.69	----	0.19	0.01	-0.18
2073	18.17	13.43	-4.74	----	0.19	0.01	-0.18
2074	18.22	13.43	-4.79	----	0.19	0.01	-0.18
2075	18.27	13.44	-4.83	----	0.19	0.01	-0.18
2076	18.31	13.44	-4.86	----	0.19	0.01	-0.18
2077	18.33	13.44	-4.89	----	0.19	0.01	-0.18
2078	18.34	13.44	-4.90	----	0.19	0.01	-0.18
2079	18.34	13.45	-4.90	----	0.19	0.01	-0.18
2080	18.33	13.44	-4.88	----	0.19	0.01	-0.18
2081	18.31	13.44	-4.86	----	0.19	0.01	-0.18
2082	18.28	13.44	-4.84	----	0.19	0.01	-0.18
2083	18.26	13.44	-4.81	----	0.19	0.01	-0.18
2084	18.22	13.44	-4.78	----	0.19	0.01	-0.18
2085	18.18	13.44	-4.75	----	0.19	0.01	-0.18
2086	18.15	13.43	-4.71	----	0.19	0.01	-0.18
2087	18.11	13.43	-4.68	----	0.19	0.01	-0.18
2088	18.08	13.43	-4.65	----	0.19	0.01	-0.18
2089	18.06	13.43	-4.63	----	0.19	0.01	-0.18
2090	18.05	13.43	-4.62	----	0.19	0.01	-0.18
2091	18.05	13.43	-4.63	----	0.19	0.01	-0.18
2092	18.07	13.43	-4.64	----	0.19	0.01	-0.18
2093	18.09	13.43	-4.66	----	0.19	0.01	-0.18
2094	18.12	13.43	-4.69	----	0.19	0.01	-0.18
2095	18.16	13.44	-4.72	----	0.19	0.01	-0.18

Summarized Estimates

	Proposal				Change from Current Law
Years	Cost rate	Income rate	Actuarial balance	Year of reserve depletion¹	Cost rate	Income rate	Actuarial balance
2020-2094	17.19%	13.86%	-3.33%	2034	0.13%	0.01%	-0.12%
¹ Under current law, the year of Trust Fund reserve depletion is 2035.

Based on Intermediate Assumptions of the 2020 Trustees Report.

Detailed Single Year Tables

Financial Estimates for the OASDI Trust Fund Program

Summarized Estimates