Detailed Single Year Tables

Description of Proposed Provision:
F3: Expand covered earnings to include employer and employee premiums for employer-sponsored group health insurance (ESI). Starting in 2024, phase out the OASDI payroll tax exclusion for ESI premiums. Set an exclusion level at the 75th percentile of premium distribution in 2024, with amounts above that subject to the payroll tax. Reduce the exclusion level each year by 10 percent of the 2024 exclusion level until fully eliminated in 2033.

Financial Estimates for the OASDI Trust Fund Program

Proposal Change from Current Law
Expressed as a percentage of
current-law taxable payroll		 Trust fund
ratio as of
January 1		 Expressed as a percentage of
current-law taxable payroll
Calendar
year		 Cost
rate		 Income
rate		 Annual
balance		 Cost
rate		 Income
rate		 Annual
balance
202013.9213.00-0.92
261
0.000.000.00
202114.0512.90-1.15
248
0.000.000.00
202214.2512.93-1.32
233
0.000.000.00
202314.4312.94-1.49
217
0.000.000.00
202414.6413.14-1.51
200
0.000.160.16
202514.8813.33-1.55
184
0.000.330.33
202615.1113.63-1.49
168
0.000.500.50
202715.3513.82-1.53
154
0.000.670.67
202815.5914.04-1.55
140
0.000.850.85
202915.8414.26-1.58
127
0.011.031.02
203016.0414.46-1.58
115
0.011.211.20
203116.2114.65-1.55
104
0.021.401.38
203216.3614.85-1.51
94
0.031.591.56
203316.4915.06-1.44
84
0.041.781.74
203416.6015.09-1.52
76
0.051.801.75
203516.7015.12-1.58
67
0.071.821.75
203616.7815.14-1.63
58
0.091.841.75
203716.8515.17-1.68
49
0.111.871.76
203816.9215.20-1.72
39
0.131.891.76
203916.9815.23-1.75
30
0.161.921.76
204017.0315.26-1.78
20
0.191.941.75
204117.0815.28-1.79
10
0.221.971.75
204217.1115.31-1.80
----
0.251.991.74
204317.1315.34-1.80
----
0.292.021.73
204417.1615.36-1.79
----
0.322.041.72
204517.1815.39-1.79
----
0.362.071.71
204617.2015.41-1.79
----
0.402.091.69
204717.2415.44-1.80
----
0.452.121.67
204817.2815.46-1.82
----
0.492.141.65
204917.3215.49-1.84
----
0.542.161.63
205017.3715.51-1.86
----
0.592.191.60
205117.4315.53-1.90
----
0.632.211.57
205217.4915.55-1.94
----
0.682.231.54
205317.5715.58-1.99
----
0.742.251.51
205417.6515.60-2.04
----
0.792.271.48
205517.7315.63-2.11
----
0.842.291.45
205617.8215.65-2.17
----
0.892.311.42
205717.9215.67-2.25
----
0.952.331.39
205818.0315.70-2.33
----
1.002.351.35
205918.1415.72-2.42
----
1.062.371.31
206018.2615.75-2.51
----
1.122.391.27
206118.3815.77-2.61
----
1.182.411.24
206218.5015.80-2.70
----
1.232.441.20
206318.6215.83-2.79
----
1.292.461.17
206418.7415.86-2.89
----
1.352.481.13
206518.8615.88-2.98
----
1.412.501.10
206618.9915.91-3.07
----
1.462.531.06
206719.1115.94-3.17
----
1.522.551.03
206819.2315.97-3.27
----
1.572.571.00
206919.3616.00-3.36
----
1.622.590.97
207019.4816.02-3.45
----
1.672.620.95
207119.5916.05-3.54
----
1.722.640.92
207219.7016.08-3.62
----
1.772.660.89
207319.7916.10-3.69
----
1.812.680.87
207419.8916.13-3.76
----
1.852.700.85
207519.9716.15-3.82
----
1.892.730.84
207620.0416.18-3.86
----
1.932.750.82
207720.1016.21-3.89
----
1.962.780.82
207820.1416.23-3.91
----
1.992.800.81
207920.1716.26-3.91
----
2.022.820.81
208020.1816.28-3.90
----
2.042.850.81
208120.1816.30-3.88
----
2.062.870.81
208220.1716.33-3.85
----
2.082.890.82
208320.1616.35-3.81
----
2.102.920.82
208420.1416.37-3.77
----
2.112.940.83
208520.1216.39-3.73
----
2.132.970.84
208620.1016.41-3.69
----
2.142.990.85
208720.0816.43-3.65
----
2.153.010.85
208820.0616.45-3.62
----
2.173.030.86
208920.0616.46-3.60
----
2.183.050.86
209020.0716.48-3.58
----
2.203.060.86
209120.0916.50-3.59
----
2.223.080.86
209220.1216.52-3.60
----
2.243.100.86
209320.1616.54-3.63
----
2.263.120.86
209420.2216.56-3.66
----
2.283.140.85
209520.2816.58-3.70
----
2.313.150.85

Summarized Estimates

Proposal Change from Current Law
Years Cost
rate		 Income
rate		 Actuarial
balance		 Year of reserve
depletion1		 Cost
rate		 Income
rate		 Actuarial
balance
2020-2094 17.99% 15.90% -2.09% 2041 0.93% 2.06% 1.13%

1 Under current law, the year of Trust Fund reserve depletion is 2035.
Based on Intermediate Assumptions of the 2020 Trustees Report.