Detailed Single Year Tables

Description of Proposed Provision:
A3: Starting December 2022, compute the COLA using a chained version of the consumer price index for wage and salary workers (CPI-W). We estimate this new computation will reduce the annual COLA by about 0.3 percentage point, on average.

Financial Estimates for the OASDI Trust Fund Program

Proposal Change from Current Law
Expressed as a percentage of
current-law taxable payroll		 Trust fund
ratio as of
January 1		 Expressed as a percentage of
current-law taxable payroll
Calendar
year		 Cost
rate		 Income
rate		 Annual
balance		 Cost
rate		 Income
rate		 Annual
balance
202114.1112.31-1.81
253
0.000.000.00
202214.3012.93-1.38
231
0.000.000.00
202314.3912.91-1.48
214
-0.04-0.000.04
202414.5512.94-1.61
197
-0.08-0.000.08
202514.7312.95-1.78
180
-0.13-0.010.12
202614.9313.07-1.86
163
-0.17-0.010.16
202715.1513.09-2.06
146
-0.21-0.010.20
202815.3713.13-2.24
128
-0.26-0.010.24
202915.5713.15-2.42
111
-0.30-0.020.28
203015.7713.17-2.60
93
-0.34-0.020.32
203115.9113.19-2.72
76
-0.38-0.020.36
203216.0213.20-2.83
58
-0.41-0.020.39
203316.1113.20-2.91
41
-0.45-0.020.42
203416.1813.21-2.97
23
-0.48-0.030.45
203516.2313.22-3.01
5
-0.51-0.030.48
203616.2613.22-3.04
----
-0.54-0.030.51
203716.3013.23-3.07
----
-0.56-0.030.53
203816.3313.23-3.10
----
-0.59-0.030.56
203916.3413.23-3.11
----
-0.61-0.030.58
204016.3513.24-3.11
----
-0.63-0.030.59
204116.3713.24-3.13
----
-0.65-0.040.61
204216.3713.24-3.13
----
-0.66-0.040.63
204316.3613.24-3.12
----
-0.68-0.040.64
204416.3513.24-3.11
----
-0.69-0.040.65
204516.3513.24-3.10
----
-0.70-0.040.66
204616.3413.24-3.10
----
-0.71-0.040.67
204716.3513.24-3.11
----
-0.72-0.040.68
204816.3713.25-3.12
----
-0.73-0.040.69
204916.3813.25-3.13
----
-0.73-0.040.69
205016.4013.25-3.15
----
-0.74-0.040.70
205116.4213.25-3.16
----
-0.74-0.040.70
205216.4413.25-3.19
----
-0.75-0.040.71
205316.4713.26-3.21
----
-0.75-0.040.71
205416.5013.26-3.24
----
-0.75-0.040.71
205516.5413.26-3.27
----
-0.76-0.040.71
205616.5813.27-3.31
----
-0.76-0.040.72
205716.6213.27-3.35
----
-0.76-0.040.72
205816.6713.28-3.40
----
-0.76-0.040.72
205916.7213.28-3.44
----
-0.77-0.040.72
206016.7813.28-3.49
----
-0.77-0.040.73
206116.8313.29-3.54
----
-0.77-0.040.73
206216.8813.29-3.58
----
-0.78-0.040.73
206316.9213.30-3.62
----
-0.78-0.040.74
206416.9713.30-3.67
----
-0.79-0.040.74
206517.0113.30-3.71
----
-0.79-0.040.75
206617.0613.31-3.75
----
-0.79-0.040.75
206717.1013.31-3.79
----
-0.80-0.050.75
206817.1513.32-3.84
----
-0.80-0.050.76
206917.2013.32-3.88
----
-0.81-0.050.76
207017.2513.32-3.93
----
-0.81-0.050.77
207117.3013.33-3.98
----
-0.82-0.050.77
207217.3513.33-4.02
----
-0.82-0.050.78
207317.4013.33-4.06
----
-0.83-0.050.78
207417.4413.34-4.10
----
-0.83-0.050.78
207517.4813.34-4.14
----
-0.84-0.050.79
207617.5113.34-4.16
----
-0.84-0.050.79
207717.5313.35-4.18
----
-0.84-0.050.80
207817.5313.35-4.18
----
-0.85-0.050.80
207917.5213.35-4.17
----
-0.85-0.050.80
208017.5013.35-4.16
----
-0.85-0.050.80
208117.4813.35-4.13
----
-0.85-0.050.80
208217.4413.34-4.10
----
-0.85-0.050.80
208317.4013.34-4.05
----
-0.85-0.050.80
208417.3413.34-4.00
----
-0.85-0.050.80
208517.2913.34-3.95
----
-0.85-0.050.80
208617.2213.33-3.89
----
-0.85-0.050.80
208717.1613.33-3.83
----
-0.85-0.050.80
208817.0913.32-3.76
----
-0.85-0.050.80
208917.0213.32-3.70
----
-0.85-0.050.80
209016.9713.32-3.65
----
-0.85-0.050.80
209116.9213.31-3.61
----
-0.85-0.050.80
209216.8913.31-3.58
----
-0.84-0.050.80
209316.8713.31-3.56
----
-0.84-0.050.79
209416.8613.31-3.55
----
-0.84-0.050.79
209516.8613.31-3.55
----
-0.84-0.050.79
209616.8613.31-3.55
----
-0.84-0.050.79

Summarized Estimates

Proposal Change from Current Law
Years Cost
rate		 Income
rate		 Actuarial
balance		 Year of reserve
depletion1		 Cost
rate		 Income
rate		 Actuarial
balance
2021-2095 16.66% 13.74% -2.92% 2035 -0.66% -0.04% 0.62%

1 Under current law, the year of Trust Fund reserve depletion is 2034.
Based on Intermediate Assumptions of the 2021 Trustees Report.