Long Range Solvency Provisions

Description of Proposed Provision:
F3: Expand covered earnings to include employer and employee premiums for employer-sponsored group health insurance (ESI). Starting in 2025, phase out the OASDI payroll tax exclusion for ESI premiums. Set an exclusion level at the 75th percentile of premium distribution in 2025, with amounts above that subject to the payroll tax. Reduce the exclusion level each year by 10 percent of the 2025 exclusion level until fully eliminated in 2035.

Financial Estimates for the OASDI Trust Fund Program

	Proposal				Change from Current Law
	Expressed as a percentage of current-law taxable payroll			Trust fund ratio as of January 1	Expressed as a percentage of current-law taxable payroll
Calendar year	Cost rate	Income rate	Annual balance	Trust fund ratio as of January 1	Cost rate	Income rate	Annual balance
2021	14.11	12.31	-1.81	253	0.00	0.00	0.00
2022	14.30	12.93	-1.38	231	0.00	0.00	0.00
2023	14.43	12.91	-1.52	214	0.00	0.00	0.00
2024	14.64	12.94	-1.69	196	0.00	0.00	0.00
2025	14.86	13.11	-1.74	178	0.00	0.15	0.15
2026	15.10	13.38	-1.73	160	-0.00	0.30	0.30
2027	15.36	13.55	-1.82	144	0.00	0.44	0.44
2028	15.62	13.73	-1.89	128	0.00	0.59	0.59
2029	15.87	13.91	-1.96	113	0.00	0.74	0.74
2030	16.11	14.08	-2.03	98	0.00	0.89	0.89
2031	16.29	14.26	-2.03	84	0.01	1.05	1.04
2032	16.45	14.43	-2.02	71	0.01	1.21	1.20
2033	16.57	14.60	-1.97	58	0.01	1.37	1.36
2034	16.68	14.78	-1.90	46	0.02	1.54	1.52
2035	16.76	14.96	-1.81	35	0.03	1.71	1.69
2036	16.84	14.99	-1.85	25	0.03	1.74	1.70
2037	16.91	15.02	-1.89	14	0.04	1.76	1.71
2038	16.97	15.04	-1.93	3	0.06	1.78	1.73
2039	17.02	15.07	-1.95	----	0.07	1.81	1.74
2040	17.06	15.10	-1.96	----	0.08	1.83	1.75
2041	17.11	15.12	-1.99	----	0.10	1.85	1.75
2042	17.15	15.15	-2.00	----	0.11	1.87	1.76
2043	17.17	15.17	-2.00	----	0.13	1.89	1.76
2044	17.19	15.19	-2.00	----	0.15	1.92	1.77
2045	17.22	15.22	-2.00	----	0.17	1.94	1.77
2046	17.25	15.24	-2.01	----	0.19	1.96	1.77
2047	17.29	15.26	-2.03	----	0.22	1.98	1.76
2048	17.34	15.28	-2.06	----	0.24	2.00	1.76
2049	17.39	15.31	-2.08	----	0.27	2.02	1.75
2050	17.43	15.33	-2.11	----	0.30	2.04	1.74
2051	17.49	15.35	-2.14	----	0.33	2.06	1.73
2052	17.54	15.37	-2.17	----	0.36	2.07	1.72
2053	17.61	15.39	-2.22	----	0.39	2.09	1.70
2054	17.68	15.41	-2.26	----	0.42	2.11	1.69
2055	17.75	15.43	-2.32	----	0.46	2.13	1.67
2056	17.83	15.45	-2.38	----	0.49	2.14	1.65
2057	17.92	15.47	-2.44	----	0.53	2.16	1.63
2058	18.01	15.50	-2.51	----	0.57	2.18	1.60
2059	18.10	15.52	-2.59	----	0.61	2.19	1.58
2060	18.20	15.54	-2.66	----	0.66	2.21	1.55
2061	18.30	15.56	-2.74	----	0.70	2.23	1.53
2062	18.40	15.58	-2.82	----	0.75	2.25	1.50
2063	18.50	15.61	-2.89	----	0.79	2.27	1.47
2064	18.59	15.63	-2.96	----	0.84	2.28	1.44
2065	18.69	15.65	-3.04	----	0.89	2.30	1.41
2066	18.79	15.67	-3.12	----	0.94	2.32	1.38
2067	18.90	15.70	-3.20	----	0.99	2.34	1.35
2068	19.00	15.72	-3.28	----	1.04	2.36	1.32
2069	19.10	15.74	-3.36	----	1.09	2.38	1.28
2070	19.21	15.76	-3.45	----	1.14	2.40	1.25
2071	19.32	15.79	-3.53	----	1.19	2.41	1.22
2072	19.42	15.81	-3.61	----	1.24	2.43	1.19
2073	19.52	15.83	-3.69	----	1.29	2.45	1.16
2074	19.62	15.85	-3.76	----	1.34	2.47	1.13
2075	19.71	15.88	-3.83	----	1.39	2.49	1.10
2076	19.79	15.90	-3.88	----	1.44	2.51	1.07
2077	19.85	15.92	-3.93	----	1.48	2.53	1.05
2078	19.90	15.94	-3.96	----	1.52	2.55	1.03
2079	19.93	15.96	-3.97	----	1.56	2.57	1.01
2080	19.96	15.98	-3.97	----	1.60	2.59	0.99
2081	19.97	16.00	-3.96	----	1.64	2.61	0.97
2082	19.97	16.02	-3.94	----	1.67	2.63	0.96
2083	19.96	16.04	-3.91	----	1.71	2.65	0.95
2084	19.94	16.06	-3.87	----	1.74	2.68	0.94
2085	19.91	16.08	-3.83	----	1.77	2.70	0.93
2086	19.87	16.10	-3.77	----	1.80	2.72	0.92
2087	19.83	16.11	-3.72	----	1.82	2.74	0.92
2088	19.78	16.13	-3.66	----	1.85	2.76	0.91
2089	19.74	16.14	-3.60	----	1.87	2.77	0.90
2090	19.71	16.15	-3.55	----	1.89	2.79	0.90
2091	19.68	16.17	-3.52	----	1.92	2.81	0.89
2092	19.68	16.18	-3.49	----	1.94	2.82	0.88
2093	19.68	16.19	-3.49	----	1.97	2.84	0.87
2094	19.69	16.21	-3.49	----	1.99	2.85	0.86
2095	19.72	16.22	-3.49	----	2.02	2.86	0.85
2096	19.74	16.24	-3.51	----	2.04	2.88	0.84

Summarized Estimates

	Proposal				Change from Current Law
Years	Cost rate	Income rate	Actuarial balance	Year of reserve depletion¹	Cost rate	Income rate	Actuarial balance
2021-2095	18.01%	15.69%	-2.32%	2038	0.69%	1.91%	1.21%
¹ Under current law, the year of Trust Fund reserve depletion is 2034.

Based on Intermediate Assumptions of the 2021 Trustees Report.

Detailed Single Year Tables

Financial Estimates for the OASDI Trust Fund Program

Summarized Estimates