Detailed Single Year Tables
Description of Proposed Provision:
B3.8: Beginning with those newly eligible for OASDI benefits in 2030, create a new bend point at the 50th percentile of the AIME distribution of newly retired workers and gradually reduce all PIA factors except for the 90 percent factor. By 2063: a) the 32 percent PIA factor below the new bend point reduces to 30 percent; b) the 32 percent PIA factor above the new bend point reduces to 10 percent; and c) the 15 percent PIA factor reduces to 5 percent.
Financial Estimates for the OASDI Trust Fund Program
| Proposal | Change from Current Law | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Expressed as a percentage of current-law taxable payroll |
Trust fund ratio as of January 1 |
Expressed as a percentage of current-law taxable payroll |
|||||||
|
Calendar year |
Cost rate |
Income rate |
Annual balance |
Cost rate |
Income rate |
Annual balance |
|||
| 2023 | 14.53 | 13.29 | -1.24 | 204 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | ||
| 2024 | 14.87 | 12.89 | -1.98 | 187 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | ||
| 2025 | 15.04 | 12.97 | -2.07 | 168 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | ||
| 2026 | 15.23 | 13.08 | -2.15 | 149 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | ||
| 2027 | 15.38 | 13.09 | -2.29 | 131 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | ||
| 2028 | 15.55 | 13.13 | -2.42 | 114 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | ||
| 2029 | 15.72 | 13.16 | -2.56 | 96 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | ||
| 2030 | 15.87 | 13.18 | -2.69 | 78 | -0.00 | -0.00 | 0.00 | ||
| 2031 | 16.00 | 13.21 | -2.79 | 61 | -0.00 | -0.00 | 0.00 | ||
| 2032 | 16.14 | 13.24 | -2.90 | 43 | -0.00 | -0.00 | 0.00 | ||
| 2033 | 16.26 | 13.25 | -3.01 | 25 | -0.01 | -0.00 | 0.01 | ||
| 2034 | 16.37 | 13.26 | -3.11 | 7 | -0.01 | -0.00 | 0.01 | ||
| 2035 | 16.46 | 13.27 | -3.20 | ---- | -0.02 | -0.00 | 0.02 | ||
| 2036 | 16.53 | 13.27 | -3.26 | ---- | -0.02 | -0.00 | 0.02 | ||
| 2037 | 16.60 | 13.28 | -3.32 | ---- | -0.04 | -0.00 | 0.03 | ||
| 2038 | 16.65 | 13.29 | -3.36 | ---- | -0.05 | -0.00 | 0.05 | ||
| 2039 | 16.68 | 13.29 | -3.39 | ---- | -0.07 | -0.00 | 0.06 | ||
| 2040 | 16.69 | 13.29 | -3.40 | ---- | -0.09 | -0.00 | 0.08 | ||
| 2041 | 16.69 | 13.29 | -3.40 | ---- | -0.11 | -0.01 | 0.11 | ||
| 2042 | 16.68 | 13.29 | -3.38 | ---- | -0.14 | -0.01 | 0.13 | ||
| 2043 | 16.66 | 13.29 | -3.37 | ---- | -0.17 | -0.01 | 0.16 | ||
| 2044 | 16.64 | 13.29 | -3.35 | ---- | -0.20 | -0.01 | 0.19 | ||
| 2045 | 16.62 | 13.29 | -3.33 | ---- | -0.24 | -0.01 | 0.23 | ||
| 2046 | 16.60 | 13.29 | -3.31 | ---- | -0.28 | -0.02 | 0.26 | ||
| 2047 | 16.58 | 13.29 | -3.29 | ---- | -0.32 | -0.02 | 0.30 | ||
| 2048 | 16.56 | 13.29 | -3.27 | ---- | -0.37 | -0.02 | 0.35 | ||
| 2049 | 16.54 | 13.29 | -3.25 | ---- | -0.42 | -0.02 | 0.39 | ||
| 2050 | 16.52 | 13.29 | -3.23 | ---- | -0.47 | -0.03 | 0.44 | ||
| 2051 | 16.50 | 13.29 | -3.20 | ---- | -0.52 | -0.03 | 0.49 | ||
| 2052 | 16.48 | 13.30 | -3.19 | ---- | -0.58 | -0.03 | 0.54 | ||
| 2053 | 16.47 | 13.30 | -3.18 | ---- | -0.64 | -0.04 | 0.60 | ||
| 2054 | 16.47 | 13.30 | -3.17 | ---- | -0.70 | -0.04 | 0.66 | ||
| 2055 | 16.47 | 13.30 | -3.17 | ---- | -0.76 | -0.04 | 0.72 | ||
| 2056 | 16.47 | 13.30 | -3.17 | ---- | -0.83 | -0.05 | 0.78 | ||
| 2057 | 16.48 | 13.30 | -3.18 | ---- | -0.90 | -0.05 | 0.85 | ||
| 2058 | 16.49 | 13.30 | -3.18 | ---- | -0.97 | -0.06 | 0.92 | ||
| 2059 | 16.50 | 13.31 | -3.19 | ---- | -1.04 | -0.06 | 0.98 | ||
| 2060 | 16.50 | 13.31 | -3.19 | ---- | -1.12 | -0.07 | 1.05 | ||
| 2061 | 16.50 | 13.31 | -3.19 | ---- | -1.19 | -0.07 | 1.12 | ||
| 2062 | 16.49 | 13.31 | -3.18 | ---- | -1.27 | -0.07 | 1.19 | ||
| 2063 | 16.49 | 13.31 | -3.17 | ---- | -1.34 | -0.08 | 1.26 | ||
| 2064 | 16.47 | 13.31 | -3.16 | ---- | -1.41 | -0.08 | 1.33 | ||
| 2065 | 16.46 | 13.31 | -3.14 | ---- | -1.49 | -0.09 | 1.40 | ||
| 2066 | 16.44 | 13.31 | -3.13 | ---- | -1.56 | -0.09 | 1.47 | ||
| 2067 | 16.43 | 13.31 | -3.11 | ---- | -1.63 | -0.10 | 1.54 | ||
| 2068 | 16.41 | 13.31 | -3.10 | ---- | -1.71 | -0.10 | 1.61 | ||
| 2069 | 16.40 | 13.31 | -3.08 | ---- | -1.78 | -0.11 | 1.67 | ||
| 2070 | 16.38 | 13.31 | -3.07 | ---- | -1.85 | -0.11 | 1.74 | ||
| 2071 | 16.37 | 13.31 | -3.06 | ---- | -1.91 | -0.11 | 1.80 | ||
| 2072 | 16.36 | 13.31 | -3.04 | ---- | -1.98 | -0.12 | 1.86 | ||
| 2073 | 16.35 | 13.31 | -3.03 | ---- | -2.04 | -0.12 | 1.91 | ||
| 2074 | 16.33 | 13.31 | -3.02 | ---- | -2.09 | -0.13 | 1.97 | ||
| 2075 | 16.32 | 13.31 | -3.00 | ---- | -2.15 | -0.13 | 2.02 | ||
| 2076 | 16.29 | 13.31 | -2.98 | ---- | -2.20 | -0.13 | 2.06 | ||
| 2077 | 16.26 | 13.31 | -2.95 | ---- | -2.24 | -0.14 | 2.11 | ||
| 2078 | 16.22 | 13.31 | -2.91 | ---- | -2.28 | -0.14 | 2.14 | ||
| 2079 | 16.17 | 13.31 | -2.87 | ---- | -2.32 | -0.14 | 2.18 | ||
| 2080 | 16.12 | 13.30 | -2.81 | ---- | -2.35 | -0.14 | 2.21 | ||
| 2081 | 16.06 | 13.30 | -2.76 | ---- | -2.38 | -0.14 | 2.23 | ||
| 2082 | 15.99 | 13.30 | -2.70 | ---- | -2.40 | -0.15 | 2.25 | ||
| 2083 | 15.93 | 13.29 | -2.63 | ---- | -2.42 | -0.15 | 2.27 | ||
| 2084 | 15.85 | 13.29 | -2.56 | ---- | -2.44 | -0.15 | 2.29 | ||
| 2085 | 15.78 | 13.29 | -2.49 | ---- | -2.45 | -0.15 | 2.30 | ||
| 2086 | 15.70 | 13.28 | -2.42 | ---- | -2.46 | -0.15 | 2.31 | ||
| 2087 | 15.62 | 13.28 | -2.35 | ---- | -2.46 | -0.15 | 2.32 | ||
| 2088 | 15.55 | 13.27 | -2.28 | ---- | -2.47 | -0.15 | 2.32 | ||
| 2089 | 15.48 | 13.27 | -2.21 | ---- | -2.47 | -0.15 | 2.32 | ||
| 2090 | 15.42 | 13.26 | -2.15 | ---- | -2.48 | -0.15 | 2.33 | ||
| 2091 | 15.36 | 13.26 | -2.10 | ---- | -2.48 | -0.15 | 2.33 | ||
| 2092 | 15.32 | 13.26 | -2.06 | ---- | -2.48 | -0.15 | 2.33 | ||
| 2093 | 15.29 | 13.25 | -2.03 | ---- | -2.48 | -0.15 | 2.33 | ||
| 2094 | 15.27 | 13.25 | -2.01 | ---- | -2.49 | -0.15 | 2.34 | ||
| 2095 | 15.25 | 13.25 | -2.00 | ---- | -2.49 | -0.15 | 2.34 | ||
| 2096 | 15.25 | 13.25 | -2.00 | ---- | -2.50 | -0.15 | 2.34 | ||
| 2097 | 15.25 | 13.25 | -2.00 | ---- | -2.50 | -0.15 | 2.35 | ||
| 2098 | 15.26 | 13.25 | -2.01 | ---- | -2.51 | -0.15 | 2.35 | ||
Summarized Estimates
| Proposal | Change from Current Law | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Years | Cost rate |
Income rate |
Actuarial balance |
Year of reserve depletion1 |
Cost rate |
Income rate |
Actuarial balance |
||
| 2023-2097 | 16.31% | 13.71% | -2.59% | 2034 | -1.07% | -0.06% | 1.01% | ||
1 Under current law, the year of Trust Fund reserve depletion is 2034. |
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Based on Intermediate Assumptions of the 2023 Trustees Report.