Long Range Solvency Provisions

Description of Proposed Provision:
E3.8: Beginning in 2031, apply 2 percent payroll tax rate on earnings over the wage-indexed equivalent of $200,000 in 2017 (about $348,300 in 2031), with the threshold wage-indexed after 2031. Provide proportional benefit credit for additional earnings taxed, based on the payroll tax rate applied to the additional earnings divided by the full 12.4 percent payroll tax rate.

Financial Estimates for the OASDI Trust Fund Program

	Proposal				Change from Current Law
	Expressed as a percentage of current-law taxable payroll			Trust fund ratio as of January 1	Expressed as a percentage of current-law taxable payroll
Calendar year	Cost rate	Income rate	Annual balance	Trust fund ratio as of January 1	Cost rate	Income rate	Annual balance
2023	14.53	13.29	-1.24	204	0.00	0.00	0.00
2024	14.87	12.89	-1.98	187	0.00	0.00	0.00
2025	15.04	12.97	-2.07	168	0.00	0.00	0.00
2026	15.23	13.08	-2.15	149	0.00	0.00	0.00
2027	15.38	13.09	-2.29	131	0.00	0.00	0.00
2028	15.55	13.13	-2.42	114	0.00	0.00	0.00
2029	15.72	13.16	-2.56	96	0.00	0.00	0.00
2030	15.87	13.18	-2.69	78	0.00	0.00	0.00
2031	16.00	13.48	-2.52	60	0.00	0.27	0.27
2032	16.14	13.53	-2.62	44	-0.00	0.29	0.29
2033	16.27	13.54	-2.73	28	0.00	0.29	0.29
2034	16.38	13.55	-2.83	12	0.00	0.29	0.29
2035	16.48	13.56	-2.92	----	0.00	0.29	0.29
2036	16.56	13.56	-2.99	----	0.00	0.29	0.29
2037	16.64	13.57	-3.07	----	0.00	0.29	0.29
2038	16.70	13.58	-3.12	----	0.00	0.29	0.29
2039	16.75	13.58	-3.17	----	0.01	0.29	0.29
2040	16.79	13.59	-3.20	----	0.01	0.29	0.28
2041	16.81	13.59	-3.22	----	0.01	0.29	0.28
2042	16.83	13.59	-3.23	----	0.01	0.29	0.28
2043	16.84	13.60	-3.25	----	0.01	0.29	0.28
2044	16.86	13.60	-3.26	----	0.01	0.29	0.28
2045	16.88	13.60	-3.28	----	0.02	0.29	0.28
2046	16.90	13.60	-3.30	----	0.02	0.29	0.27
2047	16.92	13.61	-3.32	----	0.02	0.29	0.27
2048	16.95	13.61	-3.34	----	0.02	0.29	0.27
2049	16.98	13.61	-3.37	----	0.03	0.29	0.27
2050	17.02	13.62	-3.40	----	0.03	0.29	0.26
2051	17.05	13.62	-3.43	----	0.03	0.29	0.26
2052	17.10	13.62	-3.47	----	0.04	0.29	0.26
2053	17.15	13.63	-3.52	----	0.04	0.30	0.25
2054	17.21	13.63	-3.58	----	0.04	0.30	0.25
2055	17.28	13.64	-3.64	----	0.05	0.30	0.25
2056	17.36	13.64	-3.71	----	0.05	0.30	0.24
2057	17.44	13.65	-3.78	----	0.06	0.30	0.24
2058	17.52	13.66	-3.86	----	0.06	0.30	0.24
2059	17.61	13.67	-3.94	----	0.07	0.30	0.23
2060	17.69	13.67	-4.02	----	0.07	0.30	0.23
2061	17.77	13.68	-4.09	----	0.08	0.30	0.22
2062	17.84	13.69	-4.16	----	0.08	0.30	0.22
2063	17.91	13.69	-4.22	----	0.09	0.30	0.22
2064	17.98	13.70	-4.28	----	0.09	0.30	0.21
2065	18.04	13.70	-4.34	----	0.09	0.30	0.21
2066	18.10	13.71	-4.40	----	0.10	0.30	0.20
2067	18.16	13.71	-4.45	----	0.10	0.30	0.20
2068	18.23	13.72	-4.51	----	0.11	0.30	0.19
2069	18.29	13.72	-4.57	----	0.11	0.30	0.19
2070	18.35	13.73	-4.62	----	0.12	0.30	0.19
2071	18.41	13.73	-4.68	----	0.12	0.31	0.18
2072	18.46	13.74	-4.73	----	0.13	0.31	0.18
2073	18.52	13.74	-4.77	----	0.13	0.31	0.17
2074	18.57	13.75	-4.82	----	0.14	0.31	0.17
2075	18.61	13.75	-4.86	----	0.14	0.31	0.17
2076	18.64	13.75	-4.88	----	0.15	0.31	0.16
2077	18.65	13.76	-4.90	----	0.15	0.31	0.16
2078	18.66	13.76	-4.90	----	0.15	0.31	0.16
2079	18.65	13.76	-4.89	----	0.16	0.31	0.15
2080	18.62	13.76	-4.87	----	0.16	0.31	0.15
2081	18.59	13.75	-4.84	----	0.16	0.31	0.15
2082	18.56	13.75	-4.80	----	0.16	0.31	0.15
2083	18.51	13.75	-4.76	----	0.16	0.31	0.15
2084	18.45	13.75	-4.71	----	0.17	0.31	0.14
2085	18.39	13.74	-4.65	----	0.17	0.31	0.14
2086	18.33	13.74	-4.59	----	0.17	0.31	0.14
2087	18.26	13.74	-4.52	----	0.17	0.31	0.14
2088	18.19	13.73	-4.46	----	0.17	0.31	0.14
2089	18.12	13.73	-4.39	----	0.17	0.31	0.14
2090	18.06	13.72	-4.34	----	0.17	0.31	0.14
2091	18.01	13.72	-4.29	----	0.17	0.31	0.14
2092	17.97	13.72	-4.25	----	0.17	0.31	0.14
2093	17.94	13.72	-4.23	----	0.17	0.31	0.14
2094	17.92	13.72	-4.21	----	0.17	0.31	0.14
2095	17.91	13.71	-4.20	----	0.17	0.31	0.14
2096	17.91	13.71	-4.20	----	0.17	0.31	0.14
2097	17.92	13.72	-4.21	----	0.17	0.31	0.14
2098	17.94	13.72	-4.23	----	0.17	0.31	0.14

Summarized Estimates

	Proposal				Change from Current Law
Years	Cost rate	Income rate	Actuarial balance	Year of reserve depletion¹	Cost rate	Income rate	Actuarial balance
2023-2097	17.45%	14.04%	-3.42%	2034	0.07%	0.26%	0.19%
¹ Under current law, the year of Trust Fund reserve depletion is 2034.

Based on Intermediate Assumptions of the 2023 Trustees Report.

Detailed Single Year Tables

Financial Estimates for the OASDI Trust Fund Program

Summarized Estimates