Methodology for Estimates of Provisions that Affect Social Security
The annual Trustees Report provides financial estimates of the Social Security program under current law. Estimates for the effects of implementing provisions and proposals (groups of provisions) under the intermediate assumptions of the 2023 Trustees Report reflect a number of assumptions and methodologies, including those described below:
- Provisions intended to change the amount of payroll tax income reflect an estimated behavioral response to any change in the taxable maximum or any change in the payroll tax rate above or below the taxable maximum.
- We assume all compensation (other than payroll taxes paid by the employer) would be reduced proportionally to completely offset the increase in payroll taxes paid by the employer, for those employees to whose earnings the change in payroll tax is attributable. The employer's total compensation cost, therefore, is assumed to remain the same.
- All rates and summary measures (annual income rate, annual cost rate, annual balance, and the long-range actuarial balance and deficit) for provisions and proposals are expressed in terms of taxable payroll under current law. This presentation better illustrates the magnitude of changes in income and cost, thus simplifying the consideration of multiple provisions. Prior to the 2009 Trustees Report, the rates and summary measures were expressed in terms of taxable payroll as estimated under the proposal.