This section presents historical data and projections of the numbers of (1) persons applying for SSI payments; (2) new recipients of SSI payments as a result of an application; (3) terminations from SSI payment status; and, (4) recipients of federally administered SSI payments. These historical data and projections are presented by category and age group.
1 All of the corresponding tables are located at the end of this section. Historical data for years prior to 2017 in each of these tables have been revised from data presented in prior reports in order to reflect improvements in the collection and classification of such data and to present a consistent basis with the data used in our projections.
2Figure
IV.B1 presents historical and projected numbers of persons applying for SSI payments at SSA field offices by calendar year
4. Following a 4-year period in the mid-2000s when the number of applications remained fairly level at 2.1 million per year, applications started increasing in 2008, largely due to the severe economic recession that began at the end of 2007 and continued into 2009. The level of applications continued to increase through 2010, decreased only slightly in 2011 as the economy recovered slowly, and generally decreased at a faster rate from 2012 through 2017. Applications in 2018 are projected to continue to decrease from 2017 levels. In 2019, the recent declining trend is assumed to reverse and the number of applications is projected to rise gradually to about 2.1 million applications per year by 2022, and then remain at roughly this level thereafter.
5
This projected level of applications in the longer term reflects a gradually decreasing assumed rate of application among the population, which is offset by the projected increase in the population as shown in section
IV.A. These assumptions are intended to make the projections consistent with the assumptions underlying the 2018 OASDI Trustees Report. Projected applications reflect: (1) the expectation that the portion of the population that meets SSI income and resource requirements will decline over time as average wages and income generally grow faster than the CPI, and therefore the SSI Federal benefit rate; (2) the fixed value of the countable resource limits and most of the income exclusions become more limiting over time as individuals’ income and asset levels grow generally; and (3) the portion of the Social Security area population composed of U.S. citizens or legal immigrants potentially eligible to become SSI recipients declines as a share of the overall population.
As part of SSA’s adjudication of these applications, the levels of income and resources available to the applicants are evaluated along with other eligibility factors including marital and citizenship status and living arrangements. In addition, well over 90 percent of the SSI applications are for disability payments that require the DDS to evaluate the alleged impairment. Applicants may appeal an unfavorable disability determination through several administrative levels of appeal. If an applicant exhausts all administrative levels of appeal, he or she may appeal to the Federal courts.
6 An applicant may decide at any point in this process to file a new application for benefits in lieu of continuing through the prescribed appeals process, generally provided that the individual does not currently have an appeal of an SSI application pending in this process.
7Figure
IV.B2 presents historical and projected numbers of persons who start receiving SSI payments as a result of this decision process
8. From 2004 to 2007, the numbers of new recipients remained fairly level, roughly consistent with the applications received during this period. From 2007 to 2010, however, the numbers of new recipients increased substantially. This increase is primarily attributable to the sharp increase in applications due to the economic recession.
Some persons receiving SSI payments in a year will stop receiving payments during the year because of death or the loss of SSI eligibility. SSA uses three primary tools to assess continuing eligibility: (1) a nonmedical redetermination; (2) a medical continuing disability review (CDR); and (3) medical redeterminations of SSI child recipients at age 18 using the adult initial disability criteria.
9 In a non-medical redetermination, the recipient's non-medical factors of eligibility are reexamined, including income, resources, and living arrangements. In a medical CDR, the recipient’s medical condition is reevaluated to determine whether the recipient continues to meet the Social Security Act's definition of disability. Medical redeterminations of disabled children attaining age 18 evaluate whether such recipients qualify for payments under the disabled adult eligibility criteria. The net reduction in the number of SSI recipients in
current-payment status during a period is referred to as the number of SSI terminations for that period.
Figure
IV.B3 presents historical and projected numbers of total terminations by calendar year
10. The total number of terminations of federally administered recipients in 2017 decreased from 2016, by about 4 percent. This decrease in total terminations differs by reason for termination. Terminations due to death increased by roughly 2 percent in 2017, while the number of terminations for all other reasons decreased by about 6 percent in 2017 from 2016 levels.
The number of SSI recipients receiving Federal payments increased rapidly in the early 1990s mainly due to the growth in the numbers of disabled adults and children. The growth in the numbers of children receiving SSI resulted in large part from the Supreme Court decision in the case of Sullivan v. Zebley, 110 S. Ct. 885 (1990), which greatly expanded the criteria used for determining disability for children. The growth in the numbers of disabled adults is a more complicated phenomenon. Extensive research conducted under contract to SSA and the Department of Health and Human Services suggested that this growth was the result of a combination of factors including: (1) demographic trends; (2) a downturn in the economy in the late 1980s and early 1990s; (3) long-term structural changes in the economy; and (4) changes in other support programs (in particular, the reduction or elimination of general assistance programs in certain States).
12,13 The 1996 welfare reform legislation, the economic downturn in the early 2000s, and the recent economic recession that began late in 2007 have contributed to the more recent changes in program participation.
As figure
IV.B4 illustrates, the implementation of Public Law 104-121 and Public Law 104-193 resulted in a decline in the Federal recipient population from 1996 to 1997. From the end of 1997 through the end of 2000, the Federal SSI recipient population grew at an annual rate of less than 1 percent. From the end of 2000 to the end of 2008, the Federal SSI recipient population grew an average of 1.7 percent per year. From the end of 2008 to the end of 2012, the Federal recipient population grew an average of 2.7 percent per year due largely to the economic recession and the slow recovery from that economic downturn. In 2013, the Federal SSI recipient growth slowed to 1.3 percent, with much smaller growth in 2014. The Federal SSI recipient population decreased slightly in 2015, by roughly 0.2 percent relative to 2014, and this decline continued in 2016, decreasing by an additional 0.7 percent compared to 2015. In 2017, recipients in current-payment status at the end of the year continued to decrease from 2016 levels by about 0.3 percent. These decreases in the last several years reflect the lower numbers of applications and new recipients and the increased number of medical CDRs conducted in recent years. For 2018, these decreases are projected to continue, for the reasons previously mentioned. Thereafter, as the proportion of the population applying for SSI payments is assumed to return to more nearly the historical long-term average, adjusted for the declining proportion of the population eligible for SSI payments as discussed in section 2, the numbers of Federal SSI recipients are projected to grow more slowly at an average rate of less than 1 percent per year for the remainder of the 25-year projection period.
In order to place this projected growth in the context of overall population growth, figure
IV.B5 presents Federal SSI prevalence rates by age group, defined as SSI recipients with Federal payments in current-payment status as percentages of the total Social Security area population for each age group.
14
Figure
IV.B6 presents prevalence rates for the two eligibility categories -
blind and disabled and
aged15 - as well as for the SSI program as a whole. It also shows these rates on an age-sex-adjusted basis, adjusted to the age-sex distribution of the Social Security area population for the year 2000. Adjusting these rates in this manner is useful when comparing rates over a long period of time because the age-sex-adjusted rates control for the effects that a changing age-sex distribution in the population can have on prevalence rates over time. That adjustment, however, does not account for the change over time of other factors that may affect the percentage of the Social Security area population that is SSI eligible.
Figure
IV.B6 shows that the age-sex adjustment does not fundamentally change the overall pattern of the prevalence rates. The total SSI prevalence rate on an age-sex adjusted basis is higher before 2000 and lower after 2000 than the gross prevalence rate due to the changing age distribution of the total population. The adjustment generally results in a more noticeable effect for the aged, especially in the early years of the SSI program, because the prevalence rate for ages 75 and older was much higher than for ages 65 to 74.
The prevalence rates for the eligibility categories of Federal SSI recipients follow significantly different growth patterns. The overall aged prevalence rate has declined steadily throughout the historical period. Gradual declines continue throughout the projection period. In contrast, except for decreases in the late 1990s due to the medical eligibility redeterminations and CDRs mandated by Public Law 104-193, the prevalence rate for blind or disabled children increased steadily through 2013, with the increase being relatively steep in the early 1990s. The prevalence rate for child recipients decreased slightly in 2014 and 2015, and experienced a sharper decrease in 2016, primarily attributable to the (1) increased number of medical CDRs for these children over the past few years, and (2) the continuing drop in applications for SSI payments. In 2017, the prevalence rate for children continued to drop, largely as a result of the factors previously mentioned. The total blind or disabled prevalence rate (as a percentage of the total population at all ages) remained fairly level until the early 1980s, when it started increasing and then continued to increase through 1996. The blind or disabled prevalence rate declined slightly in the late 1990s due to the effects of welfare reform legislation but resumed an upward trend in 2000. That upward trend continued through 2013, but experienced slight decreases in 2014 through 2017. The projected overall prevalence rate for blind or disabled recipients gradually declines throughout the projection period due to: (1) the SSI potentially eligible population (i.e., the legal resident population) growing more slowly than the overall population, (2) a smaller proportion of the population becoming new recipients than during the recent economic slowdown; (3) the changing age distribution in the population; and (4) the assumption that SSA will receive the resources authorized in the Bipartisan Budget Act of 2015 to process medical CDR and non-medical redetermination workloads.
16The total number of federally administered SSI recipients includes recipients only receiving a federally administered State supplement, as well as those receiving a Federal payment. Table
IV.B8 presents historical and projected numbers of individuals who receive only a federally administered State supplement. Such recipients have countable income that exceeds the Federal benefit rate but which is lower than the combined amount of the Federal benefit rate and the State supplementary benefit level. These individuals must meet all other criteria required in order to be eligible for a Federal SSI payment. The vast majority of these individuals are concurrently beneficiaries of OASDI benefits.
Table
IV.B9 displays the combined numbers of persons receiving either a Federal SSI payment or a federally administered State supplement. This is the total number of SSI recipients, which follows largely the same patterns of growth as the number of recipients receiving a Federal payment.
