2016 OASDI Trustees Report

H. ANALYSIS OF BENEFIT DISBURSEMENTS FROM THE OASI TRUST FUND WITH RESPECT TO DISABLED BENEFICIARIES

(Required by section 201(c) of the Social Security Act)

Effective January 1957, the OASI Trust Fund pays monthly benefits to disabled children aged 18 and over of retired and deceased workers if the disability began before age 18. The age by which disability must have begun was later changed to age 22. Effective February 1968, the OASI Trust Fund pays reduced monthly benefits to disabled widows and widowers at ages 50 and over. Effective January 1991, the requirements for the disability of the widow or widower were made less restrictive.

At the end of 2015, the OASI Trust Fund was providing monthly benefit payments to about 1,096,000 people because of their disabilities or the disabilities of children. This total includes approximately 25,000 mothers and fathers (wives or husbands under normal retirement age of retired-worker beneficiaries and widows or widowers of deceased insured workers) who met all other qualifying requirements and were receiving unreduced benefits solely because they had disabled-child beneficiaries (or disabled children aged 16 or 17) in their care. In calendar year 2015, the OASI Trust Fund paid a total of $10,736¹ million to the people described above. Table VI.H1 shows OASI scheduled benefits for disability for selected calendar years during 1960 through 2015 and estimates for 2016 through 2025 based on the intermediate set of assumptions.

Table VI.H1.—Scheduled Benefit Disbursements From the OASI Trust Fund
With Respect to Disabled Beneficiaries 

[Beneficiaries in thousands; scheduled benefits in millions]

Calendar year		Disabled beneficiaries, end of year				Amount of scheduled benefitsa b
		Total	Children  c	Widows- widowers  d		Total	Children c	Widows- widowers  e
Historical data:
	1960	117	117	—		$59	$59	—
	1965	214	214	—		134	134	—
	1970	316	281	36		301	260	$41
	1975	435	376	58		664	560	104
	1980	519	460	59		1,223	1,097	126
	1985	594	547	47		2,072	1,885	187
	1990	662	613	49		2,882	2,649	233
	1991	687	627	61		3,179	2,875	304
	1992	715	643	72		3,459	3,079	380
	1993	740	659	81		3,752	3,296	456
	1994	758	671	86		3,973	3,481	492
	1995	772	681	91		4,202	3,672	531
	1996	782	687	94		4,410	3,846	565
	1997	789	693	96		4,646	4,050	596
	1998	797	698	99		4,838	4,210	627
	1999	805	702	102		4,991	4,336	655
	2000	811	707	104		5,203	4,523	680
	2001	817	712	105		5,520	4,802	718
	2002	823	717	106		5,773	5,024	749
	2003	827	722	105		5,950	5,184	764
	2004	828	723	105		6,099	5,316	781
	2005	836	728	108		6,449	5,556	834
	2006	840	732	108		6,720	5,852	864
	2007	851	744	107		7,053	6,181	869
	2008	922	813	109		7,688	6,776	908
	2009	969	857	112		8,595	7,618	974
	2010	996	879	117		8,858	7,848	1,008
	2011	1,020	899	121		9,136	8,085	1,050
	2012	1,045	920	125		9,698	8,595	1,102
	2013	1,065	939	126		9,953	8,840	1,109
	2014	1,079	954	125		10,326	9,217	1,108
	2015	1,096	972	124		10,736	9,624	1,109
Estimates under the intermediate assumptions:
	2016	1,113	991	121		$10,970	$9,881	$1,086
	2017	1,128	1,010	118		11,220	10,162	1,055
	2018	1,144	1,028	116		11,790	10,724	1,063
	2019	1,159	1,046	113		12,343	11,272	1,066
	2020	1,176	1,064	112		12,923	11,838	1,081
	2021	1,193	1,081	112		13,544	12,430	1,110
	2022	1,209	1,098	112		14,197	13,050	1,142
	2023	1,226	1,114	112		14,881	13,701	1,175
	2024	1,243	1,130	113		15,621	14,390	1,225
	2025	1,260	1,146	114		16,383	15,110	1,268

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a

Beginning in 1966, includes payments for vocational rehabilitation services.

b

Amounts for 2015 and 2016 are adjusted to include in 2016 operations those benefit payments regularly scheduled in the law to be paid on January 3, 2016, which were actually paid on December 31, 2015 as required by the statutory provision for early benefit payments when the normal delivery date is on a Saturday, Sunday, or public holiday. Such shifts in payments across calendar years occur periodically whenever January 3rd falls on a Sunday. In order to provide a consistent perspective on scheduled benefits over time, scheduled benefits in each year reflect the 12 months of benefits that are regularly scheduled for payment in that year.

c

Also includes certain mothers and fathers (see text).

d

In 1984 and later years, includes only disabled widows and widowers aged 50-59, because disabled widows and widowers age 60 and older are eligible for the same benefit as a nondisabled aged widow or widower. Therefore, they are not receiving benefits solely because of a disability.

e

In 1983 and prior years, includes the offsetting effect of lower benefits payable to disabled widows and widowers who continued to receive benefits after attaining age 60 (62, for disabled widowers prior to 1973), compared to the higher nondisabled widow’s and widower’s benefits that would otherwise be payable. In 1984 and later years, includes only scheduled benefits to disabled widows and widowers aged 50-59 (see footnote d).

Note: Totals do not necessarily equal the sums of rounded components.

Under the intermediate assumptions, estimated total scheduled benefits from the OASI Trust Fund with respect to disabled beneficiaries will increase from $10,970 million in calendar year 2016 to $16,383 million in calendar year 2025.

In calendar year 2015, benefit payments (including expenditures for vocational rehabilitation services) with respect to disabled persons from the OASI Trust Fund and from the DI Trust Fund (including payments from the DI fund to all children and spouses of disabled-worker beneficiaries) totaled $154,124 million. Of this amount, $10,736 million, or 7.0 percent, represented payments from the OASI Trust Fund. Table VI.H2 contains these and similar figures for selected calendar years during 1960 through 2015 and estimates for calendar years 2016 through 2025.

Table VI.H2.—Scheduled Benefit Disbursements^a Under the OASDI Program
With Respect to Disabled Beneficiaries 

[Amounts in millions]

Calendar year		Totalb	DI Trust Fundc	OASI Trust Fund
				Amount  d	Percentage of total
Historical data:
	1960	$627	$568	$59	9.4
	1965	1,707	1,573	134	7.9
	1970	3,386	3,085	301	8.9
	1975	9,169	8,505	664	7.2
	1980	16,738	15,515	1,223	7.3
	1985	20,908	18,836	2,072	9.9
	1990	27,717	24,835	2,882	10.4
	1991	30,877	27,698	3,179	10.3
	1992	34,583	31,124	3,459	10.0
	1993	38,378	34,626	3,752	9.8
	1994	41,730	37,757	3,973	9.5
	1995	45,140	40,937	4,202	9.3
	1996	48,615	44,205	4,410	9.1
	1997	50,358	45,712	4,646	9.2
	1998	53,062	48,224	4,838	9.1
	1999	56,390	51,399	4,991	8.9
	2000	60,204	55,001	5,203	8.6
	2001	65,157	59,637	5,520	8.5
	2002	71,493	65,721	5,773	8.1
	2003	76,902	70,952	5,950	7.7
	2004	84,350	78,251	6,099	7.2
	2005	91,835	85,386	6,449	7.0
	2006	99,165	92,446	6,720	6.8
	2007	106,200	99,147	7,053	6.6
	2008	114,064	106,376	7,688	6.7
	2009	127,002	118,407	8,595	6.8
	2010	133,103	124,245	8,858	6.7
	2011	138,115	128,979	9,136	6.6
	2012	146,623	136,925	9,698	6.6
	2013	150,108	140,155	9,953	6.6
	2014	152,031	141,705	10,326	6.8
	2015	154,124	143,388	10,736	7.0
Estimates under the intermediate assumptions:
	2016	157,679	146,709	10,970	7.0
	2017	160,598	149,378	11,220	7.0
	2018	167,864	156,074	11,790	7.0
	2019	174,860	162,517	12,343	7.1
	2020	181,682	168,759	12,923	7.1
	2021	189,761	176,217	13,544	7.1
	2022	198,324	184,127	14,197	7.2
	2023	207,097	192,215	14,881	7.2
	2024	215,864	200,243	15,621	7.2
	2025	225,221	208,838	16,383	7.3

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a

Amounts for 2015 and 2016 are adjusted to include in 2016 operations those benefit payments regularly scheduled in the law to be paid on January 3, 2016, which were actually paid on December 31, 2015 as required by the statutory provision for early benefit payments when the normal delivery date is on a Saturday, Sunday, or public holiday. Such shifts in payments across calendar years occur periodically whenever January 3rd falls on a Sunday. In order to provide a consistent perspective on scheduled benefits over time, scheduled benefits in each year reflect the 12 months of benefits that are regularly scheduled for payment in that year.

b

Beginning in 1966, includes payments for vocational rehabilitation services.

c

Scheduled benefits for disabled workers and their children and spouses.

d

Scheduled benefits for disabled children aged 18 and over, for certain mothers and fathers (see text), and for disabled widows and widowers (see footnote e, table VI.H1).

Note: Totals do not necessarily equal the sums of rounded components.

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1

Benefit payments which were scheduled to be paid on January 3, 2016 were actually paid on December 31, 2015 as required by the statutory provision for early delivery of benefit payments when the normal payment delivery date is a Saturday, Sunday, or public holiday. For comparability with the values for historical years and the projections in this report, all benefit amounts in this section reflect the 12 months of benefits scheduled for payment in each year.