Principal Demographic Assumptions — 2016 OASDI Trustees Report

Table V.A1.- Fertility and Mortality Assumptions, ^a
Calendar Years 1940-2090
Historical data:
Calendar year	Total fertility rate ^b	Age-sex-adjusted death rate ^c per 100,000, by age
Calendar year	Total fertility rate ^b	Total	Under 65	65 and over
1940	2.23	1,919.8	750.1	9,718.8
1941	2.33	1,836.5	726.1	9,240.1
1942	2.55	1,776.7	703.0	8,935.3
1943	2.64	1,852.8	708.8	9,479.8
1944	2.49	1,763.8	685.6	8,952.5
1945	2.42	1,716.6	674.8	8,662.9
1946	2.86	1,664.4	641.2	8,485.9
1947	3.18	1,668.3	619.0	8,663.7
1948	3.03	1,633.0	604.8	8,488.3
1949	3.04	1,583.3	585.3	8,237.3
1950	3.03	1,561.9	570.2	8,173.7
1951	3.20	1,548.4	565.5	8,101.4
1952	3.29	1,518.8	558.8	7,919.5
1953	3.35	1,510.5	545.5	7,944.7
1954	3.46	1,433.4	514.9	7,557.2
1955	3.50	1,453.8	508.2	7,758.4
1956	3.60	1,455.4	506.8	7,780.4
1957	3.68	1,481.6	516.6	7,916.0
1958	3.63	1,467.9	506.1	7,880.1
1959	3.64	1,440.8	499.2	7,719.3
1960	3.61	1,454.3	503.2	7,795.4
1961	3.56	1,420.8	488.0	7,640.2
1962	3.42	1,448.5	493.7	7,814.1
1963	3.30	1,472.5	501.3	7,947.7
1964	3.17	1,426.0	496.5	7,622.9
1965	2.88	1,428.8	495.2	7,653.3
1966	2.67	1,431.8	497.1	7,663.7
1967	2.53	1,393.6	488.5	7,427.9
1968	2.43	1,418.1	500.8	7,534.0
1969	2.42	1,374.2	491.7	7,258.0
1970	2.43	1,340.0	485.7	7,036.3
1971	2.25	1,332.9	472.5	7,068.9
1972	1.99	1,328.0	470.4	7,045.8
1973	1.86	1,309.2	463.0	6,951.3
1974	1.82	1,255.6	443.6	6,668.9
1975	1.77	1,204.8	426.6	6,393.6
1976	1.74	1,195.1	416.1	6,389.1
1977	1.80	1,160.6	405.7	6,193.7
1978	1.76	1,155.1	399.0	6,196.8
1979	1.82	1,116.4	386.2	5,984.8
1980	1.82	1,136.9	384.3	6,154.3
1981	1.80	1,105.7	374.7	5,979.0
1982	1.81	1,071.3	362.6	5,795.9
1983	1.78	1,085.0	357.7	5,934.4
1984	1.79	1,076.5	354.3	5,891.4
1985	1.83	1,081.0	353.3	5,932.9
1986	1.83	1,070.0	350.8	5,865.1
1987	1.86	1,079.3	347.3	5,959.7
1988	1.92	1,070.3	346.3	5,897.1
1989	2.00	1,040.8	340.5	5,710.0
1990	2.07	1,021.3	333.6	5,606.3
1991	2.06	1,007.7	329.8	5,527.6
1992	2.04	992.7	322.4	5,461.5
1993	2.02	1,016.4	325.3	5,624.3
1994	2.00	1,004.1	321.8	5,553.3
1995	1.98	1,001.5	317.9	5,559.5
1996	1.98	987.8	306.6	5,529.1
1997	1.97	971.9	293.3	5,496.4
1998	2.00	963.8	285.4	5,487.1
1999	2.01	970.6	283.2	5,553.6
2000	2.05	960.7	281.0	5,492.3
2001	2.03	951.1	280.4	5,422.8
2002	2.03	947.0	279.0	5,400.6
2003	2.05	933.4	277.2	5,308.6
2004	2.06	898.9	269.7	5,093.9
2005	2.06	901.3	270.7	5,105.4
2006	2.11	876.1	267.6	4,933.5
2007	2.12	856.8	261.6	4,825.2
2008	2.07	857.0	258.8	4,845.5
2009	2.00	827.1	255.3	4,639.7
2010	1.93	821.3	248.5	4,640.1
2011	1.89	819.3	249.1	4,621.4
2012	1.87	811.9	248.5	4,568.2
2013	1.85	^d 812.2	249.1	^d 4,566.1
2014	1.86	^d 790.4	^d 242.6	^d 4,442.9
2015	^e 1.87	^e 781.4	^e 239.8	^e 4,392.3
Intermediate:
2016	1.90	773.0	237.1	4,345.8
2017	1.93	765.0	234.4	4,302.4
2018	1.95	757.3	231.8	4,261.4
2019	1.98	749.9	229.1	4,222.5
2020	2.00	742.8	226.5	4,185.1
2021	2.02	735.8	223.9	4,149.0
2022	2.04	729.0	221.3	4,114.1
2023	2.05	722.4	218.8	4,080.1
2024	2.04	715.9	216.2	4,046.9
2025	2.03	709.5	213.8	4,014.5
2026	2.01	703.2	211.3	3,982.7
2027	2.00	697.0	208.9	3,951.5
2028	2.00	690.9	206.5	3,920.9
2029	2.00	684.9	204.1	3,890.8
2030	2.00	679.1	201.8	3,861.1
2031	2.00	673.2	199.5	3,831.9
2032	2.00	667.5	197.2	3,803.2
2033	2.00	661.9	195.0	3,774.8
2034	2.00	656.3	192.8	3,746.9
2035	2.00	650.8	190.6	3,719.3
2036	2.00	645.4	188.5	3,692.1
2037	2.00	640.1	186.4	3,665.3
2038	2.00	634.8	184.3	3,638.8
2039	2.00	629.6	182.2	3,612.7
2040	2.00	624.5	180.2	3,586.9
2041	2.00	619.5	178.2	3,561.5
2042	2.00	614.5	176.2	3,536.3
2043	2.00	609.5	174.3	3,511.5
2044	2.00	604.7	172.4	3,487.0
2045	2.00	599.9	170.5	3,462.8
2046	2.00	595.2	168.6	3,438.9
2047	2.00	590.5	166.8	3,415.3
2048	2.00	585.9	165.0	3,392.0
2049	2.00	581.3	163.2	3,369.0
2050	2.00	576.8	161.4	3,346.3
2051	2.00	572.4	159.7	3,323.8
2052	2.00	568.0	158.0	3,301.6
2053	2.00	563.6	156.3	3,279.7
2054	2.00	559.4	154.6	3,258.0
2055	2.00	555.1	153.0	3,236.6
2056	2.00	551.0	151.4	3,215.4
2057	2.00	546.9	149.7	3,194.5
2058	2.00	542.8	148.2	3,173.8
2059	2.00	538.8	146.6	3,153.4
2060	2.00	534.8	145.1	3,133.2
2061	2.00	530.9	143.6	3,113.3
2062	2.00	527.0	142.1	3,093.6
2063	2.00	523.2	140.6	3,074.1
2064	2.00	519.4	139.1	3,054.8
2065	2.00	515.7	137.7	3,035.7
2066	2.00	512.0	136.3	3,016.9
2067	2.00	508.3	134.9	2,998.3
2068	2.00	504.7	133.5	2,979.8
2069	2.00	501.2	132.1	2,961.6
2070	2.00	497.6	130.8	2,943.6
2071	2.00	494.2	129.5	2,925.8
2072	2.00	490.7	128.1	2,908.2
2073	2.00	487.3	126.8	2,890.8
2074	2.00	484.0	125.6	2,873.6
2075	2.00	480.7	124.3	2,856.5
2076	2.00	477.4	123.1	2,839.6
2077	2.00	474.1	121.8	2,823.0
2078	2.00	470.9	120.6	2,806.5
2079	2.00	467.7	119.4	2,790.1
2080	2.00	464.6	118.2	2,774.0
2081	2.00	461.5	117.1	2,758.0
2082	2.00	458.4	115.9	2,742.2
2083	2.00	455.4	114.8	2,726.6
2084	2.00	452.4	113.7	2,711.1
2085	2.00	449.5	112.5	2,695.7
2086	2.00	446.5	111.4	2,680.6
2087	2.00	443.6	110.4	2,665.6
2088	2.00	440.8	109.3	2,650.7
2089	2.00	437.9	108.2	2,636.0
2090	2.00	435.1	107.2	2,621.5
Low-cost:
2016	1.93	790.6	242.2	4,446.9
2017	1.97	787.3	241.0	4,429.9
2018	2.01	784.0	239.8	4,412.8
2019	2.05	780.7	238.5	4,395.7
2020	2.09	777.4	237.2	4,378.5
2021	2.13	774.0	236.0	4,361.4
2022	2.16	770.6	234.6	4,344.2
2023	2.19	767.3	233.3	4,327.1
2024	2.20	763.9	232.0	4,310.0
2025	2.20	760.5	230.7	4,292.9
2026	2.20	757.1	229.4	4,275.9
2027	2.20	753.8	228.1	4,258.9
2028	2.20	750.4	226.7	4,242.1
2029	2.20	747.1	225.4	4,225.3
2030	2.20	743.8	224.1	4,208.6
2031	2.20	740.5	222.8	4,191.9
2032	2.20	737.2	221.5	4,175.4
2033	2.20	734.0	220.2	4,159.0
2034	2.20	730.7	219.0	4,142.7
2035	2.20	727.5	217.7	4,126.4
2036	2.20	724.3	216.4	4,110.3
2037	2.20	721.1	215.2	4,094.3
2038	2.20	718.0	213.9	4,078.4
2039	2.20	714.8	212.7	4,062.5
2040	2.20	711.7	211.5	4,046.8
2041	2.20	708.6	210.3	4,031.2
2042	2.20	705.5	209.0	4,015.7
2043	2.20	702.5	207.8	4,000.2
2044	2.20	699.4	206.7	3,984.9
2045	2.20	696.4	205.5	3,969.7
2046	2.20	693.4	204.3	3,954.6
2047	2.20	690.5	203.1	3,939.6
2048	2.20	687.5	202.0	3,924.7
2049	2.20	684.6	200.8	3,909.8
2050	2.20	681.7	199.7	3,895.1
2051	2.20	678.8	198.5	3,880.5
2052	2.20	675.9	197.4	3,866.0
2053	2.20	673.0	196.3	3,851.5
2054	2.20	670.2	195.2	3,837.2
2055	2.20	667.4	194.1	3,823.0
2056	2.20	664.6	193.0	3,808.8
2057	2.20	661.8	191.9	3,794.8
2058	2.20	659.0	190.8	3,780.8
2059	2.20	656.3	189.8	3,766.9
2060	2.20	653.6	188.7	3,753.1
2061	2.20	650.9	187.6	3,739.4
2062	2.20	648.2	186.6	3,725.8
2063	2.20	645.5	185.5	3,712.3
2064	2.20	642.9	184.5	3,698.9
2065	2.20	640.2	183.5	3,685.5
2066	2.20	637.6	182.5	3,672.2
2067	2.20	635.0	181.4	3,659.1
2068	2.20	632.4	180.4	3,646.0
2069	2.20	629.9	179.4	3,633.0
2070	2.20	627.3	178.5	3,620.0
2071	2.20	624.8	177.5	3,607.2
2072	2.20	622.3	176.5	3,594.4
2073	2.20	619.8	175.5	3,581.7
2074	2.20	617.3	174.6	3,569.1
2075	2.20	614.8	173.6	3,556.6
2076	2.20	612.4	172.6	3,544.1
2077	2.20	609.9	171.7	3,531.8
2078	2.20	607.5	170.8	3,519.5
2079	2.20	605.1	169.8	3,507.2
2080	2.20	602.7	168.9	3,495.1
2081	2.20	600.4	168.0	3,483.0
2082	2.20	598.0	167.1	3,471.0
2083	2.20	595.7	166.2	3,459.1
2084	2.20	593.3	165.3	3,447.3
2085	2.20	591.0	164.4	3,435.5
2086	2.20	588.7	163.5	3,423.8
2087	2.20	586.4	162.6	3,412.1
2088	2.20	584.2	161.7	3,400.6
2089	2.20	581.9	160.9	3,389.1
2090	2.20	579.7	160.0	3,377.7
High-cost:
2016	1.87	754.6	231.7	4,240.7
2017	1.88	741.5	227.3	4,169.6
2018	1.89	729.1	223.0	4,103.5
2019	1.90	717.3	218.8	4,041.3
2020	1.91	706.0	214.6	3,982.4
2021	1.91	695.2	210.5	3,926.3
2022	1.91	684.7	206.5	3,872.6
2023	1.91	674.5	202.6	3,820.9
2024	1.90	664.7	198.8	3,771.0
2025	1.89	655.1	195.1	3,722.7
2026	1.87	645.8	191.4	3,675.8
2027	1.86	636.8	187.8	3,630.2
2028	1.85	628.0	184.3	3,585.8
2029	1.84	619.3	180.9	3,542.6
2030	1.82	610.9	177.6	3,500.4
2031	1.81	602.7	174.3	3,459.2
2032	1.80	594.7	171.1	3,418.9
2033	1.80	586.8	168.0	3,379.5
2034	1.80	579.2	164.9	3,341.0
2035	1.80	571.7	162.0	3,303.3
2036	1.80	564.3	159.0	3,266.4
2037	1.80	557.1	156.2	3,230.2
2038	1.80	550.1	153.4	3,194.8
2039	1.80	543.2	150.7	3,160.1
2040	1.80	536.5	148.0	3,126.2
2041	1.80	529.9	145.4	3,092.8
2042	1.80	523.4	142.9	3,060.2
2043	1.80	517.0	140.4	3,028.1
2044	1.80	510.8	138.0	2,996.7
2045	1.80	504.7	135.6	2,965.8
2046	1.80	498.8	133.3	2,935.6
2047	1.80	492.9	131.0	2,905.9
2048	1.80	487.2	128.8	2,876.7
2049	1.80	481.6	126.6	2,848.1
2050	1.80	476.0	124.5	2,820.0
2051	1.80	470.6	122.4	2,792.3
2052	1.80	465.3	120.4	2,765.2
2053	1.80	460.1	118.4	2,738.6
2054	1.80	455.0	116.4	2,712.4
2055	1.80	450.0	114.5	2,686.7
2056	1.80	445.1	112.6	2,661.5
2057	1.80	440.2	110.8	2,636.6
2058	1.80	435.5	109.0	2,612.2
2059	1.80	430.8	107.3	2,588.2
2060	1.80	426.3	105.5	2,564.6
2061	1.80	421.8	103.9	2,541.4
2062	1.80	417.4	102.2	2,518.6
2063	1.80	413.0	100.6	2,496.2
2064	1.80	408.8	99.0	2,474.1
2065	1.80	404.6	97.4	2,452.4
2066	1.80	400.5	95.9	2,431.0
2067	1.80	396.4	94.4	2,409.9
2068	1.80	392.5	93.0	2,389.2
2069	1.80	388.6	91.5	2,368.9
2070	1.80	384.7	90.1	2,348.8
2071	1.80	380.9	88.8	2,329.0
2072	1.80	377.2	87.4	2,309.6
2073	1.80	373.6	86.1	2,290.4
2074	1.80	370.0	84.8	2,271.5
2075	1.80	366.4	83.5	2,252.9
2076	1.80	363.0	82.3	2,234.6
2077	1.80	359.5	81.0	2,216.5
2078	1.80	356.2	79.8	2,198.7
2079	1.80	352.9	78.6	2,181.2
2080	1.80	349.6	77.5	2,163.9
2081	1.80	346.4	76.3	2,146.9
2082	1.80	343.2	75.2	2,130.1
2083	1.80	340.1	74.1	2,113.5
2084	1.80	337.1	73.1	2,097.2
2085	1.80	334.0	72.0	2,081.1
2086	1.80	331.1	71.0	2,065.2
2087	1.80	328.1	70.0	2,049.5
2088	1.80	325.3	69.0	2,034.0
2089	1.80	322.4	68.0	2,018.8
2090	1.80	319.6	67.0	2,003.7

^a This table contains basic assumptions along with key summary values that are derived from basic assumptions.
^b The total fertility rate for any year is the average number of children that would be born to a woman in her lifetime if she were to experience, at each age of her life, the birth rate observed in, or assumed for, the selected year, and if she were to survive the entire childbearing period.
^c Based on the enumerated total population as of April 1, 2010, if that population were to experience the death rates by age and sex observed in, or assumed for, the selected year.
^d Estimated.
^e Estimated, intermediate alternative.