Single-Year Tables Historical Data Intermediate Assumptions Low-Cost Assumptions High-Cost Assumptions


Table V.A1.- Fertility and Mortality Assumptions,  a
Calendar Years 1940-2090


Calendar year   Total
fertility
rate  b
  Age-sex-adjusted death rate  c
per 100,000, by age
Total   Under 65   65 and over

Historical data:
1940   2.23   1,919.8   750.1   9,718.8
1941   2.33   1,836.5   726.1   9,240.1
1942   2.55   1,776.7   703.0   8,935.3
1943   2.64   1,852.8   708.8   9,479.8
1944   2.49   1,763.8   685.6   8,952.5
1945   2.42   1,716.6   674.8   8,662.9
1946   2.86   1,664.4   641.2   8,485.9
1947   3.18   1,668.3   619.0   8,663.7
1948   3.03   1,633.0   604.8   8,488.3
1949   3.04   1,583.3   585.3   8,237.3
1950   3.03   1,561.9   570.2   8,173.7
1951   3.20   1,548.4   565.5   8,101.4
1952   3.29   1,518.8   558.8   7,919.5
1953   3.35   1,510.5   545.5   7,944.7
1954   3.46   1,433.4   514.9   7,557.2
1955   3.50   1,453.8   508.2   7,758.4
1956   3.60   1,455.4   506.8   7,780.4
1957   3.68   1,481.6   516.6   7,916.0
1958   3.63   1,467.9   506.1   7,880.1
1959   3.64   1,440.8   499.2   7,719.3
1960   3.61   1,454.3   503.2   7,795.4
1961   3.56   1,420.8   488.0   7,640.2
1962   3.42   1,448.5   493.7   7,814.1
1963   3.30   1,472.5   501.3   7,947.7
1964   3.17   1,426.0   496.5   7,622.9
1965   2.88   1,428.8   495.2   7,653.3
1966   2.67   1,431.8   497.1   7,663.7
1967   2.53   1,393.6   488.5   7,427.9
1968   2.43   1,418.1   500.8   7,534.0
1969   2.42   1,374.2   491.7   7,258.0
1970   2.43   1,340.0   485.7   7,036.3
1971   2.25   1,332.9   472.5   7,068.9
1972   1.99   1,328.0   470.4   7,045.8
1973   1.86   1,309.2   463.0   6,951.3
1974   1.82   1,255.6   443.6   6,668.9
1975   1.77   1,204.8   426.6   6,393.6
1976   1.74   1,195.1   416.1   6,389.1
1977   1.80   1,160.6   405.7   6,193.7
1978   1.76   1,155.1   399.0   6,196.8
1979   1.82   1,116.4   386.2   5,984.8
1980   1.82   1,136.9   384.3   6,154.3
1981   1.80   1,105.7   374.7   5,979.0
1982   1.81   1,071.3   362.6   5,795.9
1983   1.78   1,085.0   357.7   5,934.4
1984   1.79   1,076.5   354.3   5,891.4
1985   1.83   1,081.0   353.3   5,932.9
1986   1.83   1,070.0   350.8   5,865.1
1987   1.86   1,079.3   347.3   5,959.7
1988   1.92   1,070.3   346.3   5,897.1
1989   2.00   1,040.8   340.5   5,710.0
1990   2.07   1,021.3   333.6   5,606.3
1991   2.06   1,007.7   329.8   5,527.6
1992   2.04   992.7   322.4   5,461.5
1993   2.02   1,016.4   325.3   5,624.3
1994   2.00   1,004.1   321.8   5,553.3
1995   1.98   1,001.5   317.9   5,559.5
1996   1.98   987.8   306.6   5,529.1
1997   1.97   971.9   293.3   5,496.4
1998   2.00   963.8   285.4   5,487.1
1999   2.01   970.6   283.2   5,553.6
2000   2.05   960.7   281.0   5,492.3
2001   2.03   951.1   280.4   5,422.8
2002   2.03   947.0   279.0   5,400.6
2003   2.05   933.4   277.2   5,308.6
2004   2.06   898.9   269.7   5,093.9
2005   2.06   901.3   270.7   5,105.4
2006   2.11   876.1   267.6   4,933.5
2007   2.12   856.8   261.6   4,825.2
2008   2.07   857.0   258.8   4,845.5
2009   2.00   827.1   255.3   4,639.7
2010   1.93   821.3   248.5   4,640.1
2011   1.89   819.3   249.1   4,621.4
2012   1.87   811.9   248.5   4,568.2
2013   1.85    d 812.2   249.1    d 4,566.1
2014   1.86    d 790.4    d 242.6    d 4,442.9
2015    e 1.87    e 781.4    e 239.8    e 4,392.3

Intermediate:
2016   1.90   773.0   237.1   4,345.8
2017   1.93   765.0   234.4   4,302.4
2018   1.95   757.3   231.8   4,261.4
2019   1.98   749.9   229.1   4,222.5
2020   2.00   742.8   226.5   4,185.1
2021   2.02   735.8   223.9   4,149.0
2022   2.04   729.0   221.3   4,114.1
2023   2.05   722.4   218.8   4,080.1
2024   2.04   715.9   216.2   4,046.9
2025   2.03   709.5   213.8   4,014.5
2026   2.01   703.2   211.3   3,982.7
2027   2.00   697.0   208.9   3,951.5
2028   2.00   690.9   206.5   3,920.9
2029   2.00   684.9   204.1   3,890.8
2030   2.00   679.1   201.8   3,861.1
2031   2.00   673.2   199.5   3,831.9
2032   2.00   667.5   197.2   3,803.2
2033   2.00   661.9   195.0   3,774.8
2034   2.00   656.3   192.8   3,746.9
2035   2.00   650.8   190.6   3,719.3
2036   2.00   645.4   188.5   3,692.1
2037   2.00   640.1   186.4   3,665.3
2038   2.00   634.8   184.3   3,638.8
2039   2.00   629.6   182.2   3,612.7
2040   2.00   624.5   180.2   3,586.9
2041   2.00   619.5   178.2   3,561.5
2042   2.00   614.5   176.2   3,536.3
2043   2.00   609.5   174.3   3,511.5
2044   2.00   604.7   172.4   3,487.0
2045   2.00   599.9   170.5   3,462.8
2046   2.00   595.2   168.6   3,438.9
2047   2.00   590.5   166.8   3,415.3
2048   2.00   585.9   165.0   3,392.0
2049   2.00   581.3   163.2   3,369.0
2050   2.00   576.8   161.4   3,346.3
2051   2.00   572.4   159.7   3,323.8
2052   2.00   568.0   158.0   3,301.6
2053   2.00   563.6   156.3   3,279.7
2054   2.00   559.4   154.6   3,258.0
2055   2.00   555.1   153.0   3,236.6
2056   2.00   551.0   151.4   3,215.4
2057   2.00   546.9   149.7   3,194.5
2058   2.00   542.8   148.2   3,173.8
2059   2.00   538.8   146.6   3,153.4
2060   2.00   534.8   145.1   3,133.2
2061   2.00   530.9   143.6   3,113.3
2062   2.00   527.0   142.1   3,093.6
2063   2.00   523.2   140.6   3,074.1
2064   2.00   519.4   139.1   3,054.8
2065   2.00   515.7   137.7   3,035.7
2066   2.00   512.0   136.3   3,016.9
2067   2.00   508.3   134.9   2,998.3
2068   2.00   504.7   133.5   2,979.8
2069   2.00   501.2   132.1   2,961.6
2070   2.00   497.6   130.8   2,943.6
2071   2.00   494.2   129.5   2,925.8
2072   2.00   490.7   128.1   2,908.2
2073   2.00   487.3   126.8   2,890.8
2074   2.00   484.0   125.6   2,873.6
2075   2.00   480.7   124.3   2,856.5
2076   2.00   477.4   123.1   2,839.6
2077   2.00   474.1   121.8   2,823.0
2078   2.00   470.9   120.6   2,806.5
2079   2.00   467.7   119.4   2,790.1
2080   2.00   464.6   118.2   2,774.0
2081   2.00   461.5   117.1   2,758.0
2082   2.00   458.4   115.9   2,742.2
2083   2.00   455.4   114.8   2,726.6
2084   2.00   452.4   113.7   2,711.1
2085   2.00   449.5   112.5   2,695.7
2086   2.00   446.5   111.4   2,680.6
2087   2.00   443.6   110.4   2,665.6
2088   2.00   440.8   109.3   2,650.7
2089   2.00   437.9   108.2   2,636.0
2090   2.00   435.1   107.2   2,621.5

Low-cost:
2016   1.93   790.6   242.2   4,446.9
2017   1.97   787.3   241.0   4,429.9
2018   2.01   784.0   239.8   4,412.8
2019   2.05   780.7   238.5   4,395.7
2020   2.09   777.4   237.2   4,378.5
2021   2.13   774.0   236.0   4,361.4
2022   2.16   770.6   234.6   4,344.2
2023   2.19   767.3   233.3   4,327.1
2024   2.20   763.9   232.0   4,310.0
2025   2.20   760.5   230.7   4,292.9
2026   2.20   757.1   229.4   4,275.9
2027   2.20   753.8   228.1   4,258.9
2028   2.20   750.4   226.7   4,242.1
2029   2.20   747.1   225.4   4,225.3
2030   2.20   743.8   224.1   4,208.6
2031   2.20   740.5   222.8   4,191.9
2032   2.20   737.2   221.5   4,175.4
2033   2.20   734.0   220.2   4,159.0
2034   2.20   730.7   219.0   4,142.7
2035   2.20   727.5   217.7   4,126.4
2036   2.20   724.3   216.4   4,110.3
2037   2.20   721.1   215.2   4,094.3
2038   2.20   718.0   213.9   4,078.4
2039   2.20   714.8   212.7   4,062.5
2040   2.20   711.7   211.5   4,046.8
2041   2.20   708.6   210.3   4,031.2
2042   2.20   705.5   209.0   4,015.7
2043   2.20   702.5   207.8   4,000.2
2044   2.20   699.4   206.7   3,984.9
2045   2.20   696.4   205.5   3,969.7
2046   2.20   693.4   204.3   3,954.6
2047   2.20   690.5   203.1   3,939.6
2048   2.20   687.5   202.0   3,924.7
2049   2.20   684.6   200.8   3,909.8
2050   2.20   681.7   199.7   3,895.1
2051   2.20   678.8   198.5   3,880.5
2052   2.20   675.9   197.4   3,866.0
2053   2.20   673.0   196.3   3,851.5
2054   2.20   670.2   195.2   3,837.2
2055   2.20   667.4   194.1   3,823.0
2056   2.20   664.6   193.0   3,808.8
2057   2.20   661.8   191.9   3,794.8
2058   2.20   659.0   190.8   3,780.8
2059   2.20   656.3   189.8   3,766.9
2060   2.20   653.6   188.7   3,753.1
2061   2.20   650.9   187.6   3,739.4
2062   2.20   648.2   186.6   3,725.8
2063   2.20   645.5   185.5   3,712.3
2064   2.20   642.9   184.5   3,698.9
2065   2.20   640.2   183.5   3,685.5
2066   2.20   637.6   182.5   3,672.2
2067   2.20   635.0   181.4   3,659.1
2068   2.20   632.4   180.4   3,646.0
2069   2.20   629.9   179.4   3,633.0
2070   2.20   627.3   178.5   3,620.0
2071   2.20   624.8   177.5   3,607.2
2072   2.20   622.3   176.5   3,594.4
2073   2.20   619.8   175.5   3,581.7
2074   2.20   617.3   174.6   3,569.1
2075   2.20   614.8   173.6   3,556.6
2076   2.20   612.4   172.6   3,544.1
2077   2.20   609.9   171.7   3,531.8
2078   2.20   607.5   170.8   3,519.5
2079   2.20   605.1   169.8   3,507.2
2080   2.20   602.7   168.9   3,495.1
2081   2.20   600.4   168.0   3,483.0
2082   2.20   598.0   167.1   3,471.0
2083   2.20   595.7   166.2   3,459.1
2084   2.20   593.3   165.3   3,447.3
2085   2.20   591.0   164.4   3,435.5
2086   2.20   588.7   163.5   3,423.8
2087   2.20   586.4   162.6   3,412.1
2088   2.20   584.2   161.7   3,400.6
2089   2.20   581.9   160.9   3,389.1
2090   2.20   579.7   160.0   3,377.7

High-cost:
2016   1.87   754.6   231.7   4,240.7
2017   1.88   741.5   227.3   4,169.6
2018   1.89   729.1   223.0   4,103.5
2019   1.90   717.3   218.8   4,041.3
2020   1.91   706.0   214.6   3,982.4
2021   1.91   695.2   210.5   3,926.3
2022   1.91   684.7   206.5   3,872.6
2023   1.91   674.5   202.6   3,820.9
2024   1.90   664.7   198.8   3,771.0
2025   1.89   655.1   195.1   3,722.7
2026   1.87   645.8   191.4   3,675.8
2027   1.86   636.8   187.8   3,630.2
2028   1.85   628.0   184.3   3,585.8
2029   1.84   619.3   180.9   3,542.6
2030   1.82   610.9   177.6   3,500.4
2031   1.81   602.7   174.3   3,459.2
2032   1.80   594.7   171.1   3,418.9
2033   1.80   586.8   168.0   3,379.5
2034   1.80   579.2   164.9   3,341.0
2035   1.80   571.7   162.0   3,303.3
2036   1.80   564.3   159.0   3,266.4
2037   1.80   557.1   156.2   3,230.2
2038   1.80   550.1   153.4   3,194.8
2039   1.80   543.2   150.7   3,160.1
2040   1.80   536.5   148.0   3,126.2
2041   1.80   529.9   145.4   3,092.8
2042   1.80   523.4   142.9   3,060.2
2043   1.80   517.0   140.4   3,028.1
2044   1.80   510.8   138.0   2,996.7
2045   1.80   504.7   135.6   2,965.8
2046   1.80   498.8   133.3   2,935.6
2047   1.80   492.9   131.0   2,905.9
2048   1.80   487.2   128.8   2,876.7
2049   1.80   481.6   126.6   2,848.1
2050   1.80   476.0   124.5   2,820.0
2051   1.80   470.6   122.4   2,792.3
2052   1.80   465.3   120.4   2,765.2
2053   1.80   460.1   118.4   2,738.6
2054   1.80   455.0   116.4   2,712.4
2055   1.80   450.0   114.5   2,686.7
2056   1.80   445.1   112.6   2,661.5
2057   1.80   440.2   110.8   2,636.6
2058   1.80   435.5   109.0   2,612.2
2059   1.80   430.8   107.3   2,588.2
2060   1.80   426.3   105.5   2,564.6
2061   1.80   421.8   103.9   2,541.4
2062   1.80   417.4   102.2   2,518.6
2063   1.80   413.0   100.6   2,496.2
2064   1.80   408.8   99.0   2,474.1
2065   1.80   404.6   97.4   2,452.4
2066   1.80   400.5   95.9   2,431.0
2067   1.80   396.4   94.4   2,409.9
2068   1.80   392.5   93.0   2,389.2
2069   1.80   388.6   91.5   2,368.9
2070   1.80   384.7   90.1   2,348.8
2071   1.80   380.9   88.8   2,329.0
2072   1.80   377.2   87.4   2,309.6
2073   1.80   373.6   86.1   2,290.4
2074   1.80   370.0   84.8   2,271.5
2075   1.80   366.4   83.5   2,252.9
2076   1.80   363.0   82.3   2,234.6
2077   1.80   359.5   81.0   2,216.5
2078   1.80   356.2   79.8   2,198.7
2079   1.80   352.9   78.6   2,181.2
2080   1.80   349.6   77.5   2,163.9
2081   1.80   346.4   76.3   2,146.9
2082   1.80   343.2   75.2   2,130.1
2083   1.80   340.1   74.1   2,113.5
2084   1.80   337.1   73.1   2,097.2
2085   1.80   334.0   72.0   2,081.1
2086   1.80   331.1   71.0   2,065.2
2087   1.80   328.1   70.0   2,049.5
2088   1.80   325.3   69.0   2,034.0
2089   1.80   322.4   68.0   2,018.8
2090   1.80   319.6   67.0   2,003.7

a This table contains basic assumptions along with key summary values that are derived from basic assumptions.
b The total fertility rate for any year is the average number of children that would be born to a woman in her lifetime if she were to experience, at each age of her life, the birth rate observed in, or assumed for, the selected year, and if she were to survive the entire childbearing period.
c Based on the enumerated total population as of April 1, 2010, if that population were to experience the death rates by age and sex observed in, or assumed for, the selected year.
d Estimated.
e Estimated, intermediate alternative.