2018 OASDI Trustees Report

H. ANALYSIS OF BENEFIT DISBURSEMENTS FROM THE OASI TRUST FUND WITH RESPECT TO DISABLED BENEFICIARIES

(Required by section 201(c) of the Social Security Act)

Effective January 1957, the OASI Trust Fund pays monthly benefits to disabled children aged 18 and over of retired and deceased workers if the disability began before age 18. The age by which disability must have begun was later changed to age 22. Effective February 1968, the OASI Trust Fund pays reduced monthly benefits to disabled widows and widowers at ages 50 and over. Effective January 1991, the requirements for the disability of the widow or widower were made less restrictive.

At the end of 2017, the OASI Trust Fund was providing monthly benefit payments to about 1,124,000 people because of their disabilities or the disabilities of children. This total includes approximately 24,000 mothers and fathers (wives or husbands under normal retirement age of retired-worker beneficiaries and widows or widowers of deceased insured workers) who met all other qualifying requirements and were receiving unreduced benefits solely because they had disabled-child beneficiaries (or disabled children aged 16 or 17) in their care. In calendar year 2017, the OASI Trust Fund paid a total of $11,355 million to the people described above. Table  VI.H1 shows OASI scheduled benefits for disability for selected calendar years during 1960 through 2017 and estimates for 2018 through 2027 based on the intermediate set of assumptions.

Table VI.H1.—Scheduled Benefit Disbursements From the OASI Trust Fund
With Respect to Disabled Beneficiaries 

[Beneficiaries in thousands; scheduled benefits in millions]

Calendar year		Disabled beneficiaries, end of year				Amount of scheduled benefitsa b
		Total	Children  c	Widows- widowers  d		Total	Children  c	Widows- widowers  e
Historical data:
	1960	117	117	—		$59	$59	—
	1965	214	214	—		134	134	—
	1970	316	281	36		301	260	$41
	1975	435	376	58		664	560	104
	1980	519	460	59		1,223	1,097	126
	1985	594	547	47		2,072	1,885	187
	1990	662	613	49		2,882	2,649	233
	1995	772	681	91		4,202	3,672	531
	2000	811	707	104		5,203	4,523	680
	2005	836	728	108		6,449	5,556	834
	2006	840	732	108		6,720	5,852	864
	2007	851	744	107		7,053	6,181	869
	2008	922	813	109		7,688	6,776	908
	2009	969	857	112		8,595	7,618	974
	2010	996	879	117		8,858	7,848	1,008
	2011	1,020	899	121		9,136	8,085	1,050
	2012	1,045	920	125		9,698	8,595	1,102
	2013	1,065	939	126		9,953	8,840	1,109
	2014	1,079	954	125		10,326	9,217	1,108
	2015	1,096	972	124		10,736	9,624	1,109
	2016	1,109	988	121		11,025	9,933	1,087
	2017	1,124	1,006	117		11,355	10,288	1,061
Estimates under the intermediate assumptions:
	2018	1,139	1,025	114		11,737	10,689	1,042
	2019	1,153	1,044	110		12,250	11,213	1,029
	2020	1,168	1,062	106		12,828	11,796	1,024
	2021	1,183	1,079	103		13,388	12,357	1,023
	2022	1,197	1,097	100		13,972	12,942	1,022
	2023	1,211	1,113	98		14,567	13,541	1,018
	2024	1,226	1,130	96		15,211	14,175	1,028
	2025	1,240	1,146	94		15,888	14,847	1,033
	2026	1,254	1,162	92		16,610	15,550	1,051
	2027	1,268	1,176	91		17,363	16,286	1,069

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a

Beginning in 1966, includes payments for vocational rehabilitation services.

b

Amounts for 2015 and 2016 are adjusted to include in 2016 operations those benefit payments regularly scheduled in the law to be paid on January 3, 2016, which were actually paid on December 31, 2015 as required by the statutory provision for early benefit payments when the normal delivery date is on a Saturday, Sunday, or public holiday. Such shifts in payments across calendar years occur periodically whenever January 3rd falls on a Sunday. In order to provide a consistent perspective on scheduled benefits over time, scheduled benefits in each year reflect the 12 months of benefits that are regularly scheduled for payment in that year.

c

Also includes certain mothers and fathers (see text).

d

In 1984 and later years, includes only disabled widows and widowers aged 50-59, because disabled widows and widowers age 60 and older are eligible for the same benefit as a nondisabled aged widow or widower. Therefore, they are not receiving benefits solely because of a disability.

e

In 1983 and prior years, includes the offsetting effect of lower benefits payable to disabled widows and widowers who continued to receive benefits after attaining age 60 (62, for disabled widowers prior to 1973), compared to the higher nondisabled widow’s and widower’s benefits that would otherwise be payable. In 1984 and later years, includes only scheduled benefits to disabled widows and widowers aged 50-59 (see footnote d).

Note: Totals do not necessarily equal the sums of rounded components.

Under the intermediate assumptions, estimated total scheduled benefits from the OASI Trust Fund with respect to disabled beneficiaries will increase from $11,737 million in calendar year 2018 to $17,363 million in calendar year 2027.

In calendar year 2017, benefit payments (including expenditures for vocational rehabilitation services) with respect to disabled persons from the OASI Trust Fund and from the DI Trust Fund (including payments from the DI fund to all children and spouses of disabled-worker beneficiaries) totaled $154,181 million. Of this amount, $11,355 million, or 7.4 percent, represented payments from the OASI Trust Fund. Table  VI.H2 contains these and similar figures for selected calendar years during 1960 through 2017 and estimates for calendar years 2018 through 2027.

Table VI.H2.—Scheduled Benefit Disbursements^a Under the OASDI Program
With Respect to Disabled Beneficiaries 

[Amounts in millions]

Calendar year		Total b	DI Trust Fund  c	OASI Trust Fund
				Amount  d	Percentage of total
Historical data:
	1960	$627	$568	$59	9.4
	1965	1,707	1,573	134	7.9
	1970	3,386	3,085	301	8.9
	1975	9,169	8,505	664	7.2
	1980	16,738	15,515	1,223	7.3
	1985	20,908	18,836	2,072	9.9
	1990	27,717	24,835	2,882	10.4
	1995	45,140	40,937	4,202	9.3
	2000	60,204	55,001	5,203	8.6
	2005	91,835	85,386	6,449	7.0
	2006	99,165	92,446	6,720	6.8
	2007	106,200	99,147	7,053	6.6
	2008	114,064	106,376	7,688	6.7
	2009	127,002	118,407	8,595	6.8
	2010	133,103	124,245	8,858	6.7
	2011	138,115	128,979	9,136	6.6
	2012	146,623	136,925	9,698	6.6
	2013	150,108	140,155	9,953	6.6
	2014	152,031	141,705	10,326	6.8
	2015	154,124	143,388	10,736	7.0
	2016	153,824	142,800	11,025	7.2
	2017	154,181	142,826	11,355	7.4
Estimates under the intermediate assumptions:
	2018	158,036	146,298	11,737	7.4
	2019	162,382	150,132	12,250	7.5
	2020	167,069	154,240	12,828	7.7
	2021	173,139	159,751	13,388	7.7
	2022	179,634	165,662	13,972	7.8
	2023	187,277	172,710	14,567	7.8
	2024	195,532	180,321	15,211	7.8
	2025	204,781	188,894	15,888	7.8
	2026	214,571	197,961	16,610	7.7
	2027	224,647	207,284	17,363	7.7

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a

Amounts for 2015 and 2016 are adjusted to include in 2016 operations those benefit payments regularly scheduled in the law to be paid on January 3, 2016, which were actually paid on December 31, 2015 as required by the statutory provision for early benefit payments when the normal delivery date is on a Saturday, Sunday, or public holiday. Such shifts in payments across calendar years occur periodically whenever January 3rd falls on a Sunday. In order to provide a consistent perspective on scheduled benefits over time, scheduled benefits in each year reflect the 12 months of benefits that are regularly scheduled for payment in that year.

b

Beginning in 1966, includes payments for vocational rehabilitation services.

c

Scheduled benefits for disabled workers and their children and spouses.

d

Scheduled benefits for disabled children aged 18 and over, for certain mothers and fathers (see text), and for disabled widows and widowers (see footnote e, table VI.H1).

Note: Totals do not necessarily equal the sums of rounded components.