Research and Analysis by Michael D. Packard

The Earnings Test and the Short-Run Work Response to Its Elimination
from Social Security Bulletin, Vol. 53, No. 9 (released September 1990)
by Michael D. Packard

The Effects of Removing 70- and 71-Year-Olds from Coverage Under the Social Security Earnings Test
ORES Working Paper No. 44 (released July 1990)
by Michael D. Packard

This study attempts to determine how persons aged 65–69 would respond to eliminating the earnings test by looking at the changes in labor market behavior of 70- and 71-year-olds whose earnings test coverage was eliminated beginning in 1983. In particular, it tries to determine whether 70- and 71-year-olds increased their labor force participation and earnings once the earnings test was removed. This issue is important because proposals to eliminate the earnings test for persons aged 65–69 generally assume that a portion of the additional benefit expenses would be recovered by income and payroll taxes generated by increased work effort among this age group.

A Look at Very Early Retirees
from Social Security Bulletin, Vol. 52, No. 3 (released March 1989)
by Michael D. Packard and Virginia P. Reno

Income of New Disabled-Worker Beneficiaries and Their Families: Findings From the New Beneficiary Survey
from Social Security Bulletin, Vol. 50 No. 3 (released March 1987)
by Michael D. Packard

Health Status of New Retired-Worker Beneficiaries: Findings From the New Beneficiary Survey
from Social Security Bulletin, Vol. 48, No. 2 (released February 1985)
by Michael D. Packard

Slowing Down Pension Indexing: The Foreign Experience
from Social Security Bulletin, Vol. 46, No. 6 (released June 1983)
by Daniel Wartonick and Michael D. Packard

Retirement Options Under the Swedish National Pension System
from Social Security Bulletin, Vol. 45, No. 11 (released November 1982)
by Michael D. Packard

Price and Income Changes for the Elderly
from Social Security Bulletin, Vol. 44, No. 1 (released January 1981)
by Benjamin Bridges and Michael D. Packard

Social Security and the Labor Supply of Aged Men: Evidence From the U.S. Time Series
ORES Working Paper No. 21 (released December 1980)
by Louis Esposito and Michael D. Packard

The purpose of this paper is to investigate the effect of the social security system on the labor supply of aged men using U.S. time series data for the period 1947 to 1975. The specific phenomena to be explained is the dramatic decrease in the labor supply of aged men during this period. Between 1947 and 1975, the annual labor force participation rate of men 65 and over decreased from 47.8 percent to 21.7 percent—a decrease of 55 percent. In terms of annual hours worked per capita for men 65 and over, there was a decrease from about 880 hours to 312 hours during this period—a decrease of 65 percent. The specific focus of the analysis will be on the relative importance of social security in explaining this decrease in labor supply.