# Estimated Retirement Benefits in the Social Security Statement

by Glenn R. Springstead, David A. Weaver, and Jason J. Fichtner
Research and Statistics Note No. 2008-05 (released November 2008)

## Tables 1B–17B

Table 1B. Inflated Statement PIA compared with retirement PIA, by Statement age, 1940–1946 birth cohorts
Statement age Sample size PIA (dollars) Inflated Statement PIA difference a from retirement PIA Percent of individuals whose inflated Statement PIA is within various percentage points of retirement PIA
Inflated Statement Retirement Dollars Percent Within 5 percent Within 10 percent Within 15 percent Within 20 percent Within 25 percent
25 234 1,263 1,562 -237 -16 9 21 28 46 55
30 6,332 1,401 1,488 -141 -9 15 32 48 61 69
35 8,375 1,364 1,388 -58 -4 25 47 59 67 74
40 9,621 1,270 1,298 -19 -2 33 53 65 73 79
45 10,452 1,222 1,244 -12 -1 41 62 75 83 88
50 11,033 1,189 1,202 -15 -1 50 72 84 91 94
55 11,423 1,138 1,173 -18 -2 57 78 88 93 95
SOURCE: Authors' calculations using MINT simulations.
NOTES: The inflated Statement PIA is the median estimated PIA calculated for eligible cohort members in the year they attain a given Statement age, adjusted for the growth of wages between the second year prior to the Statement age and the year cohort members reached age 60. The retirement PIA is the median PIA received at age 62 for the cohort.
PIA = primary insurance amount; MINT = Modeling Income in the Near Term.
a. Values in the difference columns are median differences, not the differences between the medians reported in the inflated Statement PIA and retirement PIA columns.
Table 2B. Inflated Statement PIA compared with retirement PIA at Statement age 25, by sex and AIME quintile, 1940–1946 birth cohorts
Beneficiary group Sample size PIA (dollars) Inflated Statement PIA difference a from retirement PIA Percent of individuals whose inflated Statement PIA is within various percentage points of retirement PIA
Inflated Statement Retirement Dollars Percent Within 5 percent Within 10 percent Within 15 percent Within 20 percent Within 25 percent
1940–1946 birth cohorts
All 234 1,263 1,562 -237 -16 9 21 28 46 55
Sex
Women 35 824 855 15 2 12 20 23 34 39
Men 199 1,269 1,622 -280 17 8 21 29 48 58
AIME quintile (dollars)
0 41 859 706 205 32 11 19 21 26 30
1891 47 1,263 1,225 1 0 2 31 37 57 72
3245 50 1,275 1,562 -257 -17 12 22 42 70 76
4330 47 1,266 1,729 -443 -26 2 27 29 37 48
5259 49 1,416 1,866 -468 -26 0 4 13 39 49
Women
All 35 824 855 15 2 12 20 23 34 39
AIME quintile
Lowest b b b b b b b b b b
Second b b b b b b b b b b
Third b b b b b b b b b b
Fourth b b b b b b b b b b
Highest b b b b b b b b b b
Men
All 199 1,269 1,622 -280 -17 8 21 29 48 58
AIME quintile (dollars)
0 19 859 699 232 38 11 15 15 15 20
1891 37 1,263 1,226 7 1 20 33 41 63 79
3245 47 1,275 1,562 -257 -17 13 23 45 72 79
4330 47 1,266 1,729 -443 -26 2 27 29 37 48
5259 49 1,416 1,866 -468 -26 0 4 13 39 49
Zero earners
All b b b b b b b b b b
Sex
Women b b b b b b b b b b
Men b b b b b b b b b b
SOURCE: Authors' calculations using MINT simulations.
NOTES: The inflated Statement PIA is the median estimated PIA calculated for eligible cohort members in the year they attain a given Statement age, adjusted for the growth of wages between the second year prior to the Statement age and the year cohort members reached age 60. The retirement PIA is the median PIA received at age 62 for the cohort. The AIME thresholds shown are the lowest values for the quintile. Zero Earners are those with zero earnings in the 2 years prior to the Statement year.
PIA = primary insurance amount; AIME = average indexed monthly earnings; MINT = Modeling Income in the Near Term.
a. Values in the difference columns are median differences, not the differences between the medians reported in the inflated Statement PIA and retirement PIA columns.
b. Data not shown due to small sample sizes.
Table 3B. Inflated Statement PIA compared with retirement PIA at Statement age 30, by sex and AIME quintile, 1940–1946 birth cohorts
Beneficiary group Sample size PIA (dollars) Inflated Statement PIA difference a from retirement PIA Percent of individuals whose inflated Statement PIA is within various percentage points of retirement PIA
Inflated Statement Retirement Dollars Percent Within 5 percent Within 10 percent Within 15 percent Within 20 percent Within 25 percent
1940–1946 birth cohorts
All 6,332 1,401 1,488 -141 -9 15 32 48 61 69
Sex
Women 1,890 964 1,091 -144 -12 11 23 34 44 52
Men 4,442 1,471 1,608 -140 -9 16 35 53 68 76
AIME quintile (dollars)
0 1,230 804 751 108 16 8 16 23 30 38
1882 1,245 1,145 1,149 4 0 14 28 39 49 58
2933 1,275 1,423 1,488 -69 -5 29 50 65 74 81
4029 1,278 1,494 1,708 -184 -11 16 45 67 78 83
5136 1,304 1,580 1,910 -297 -16 5 19 46 75 88
Women
All 1,890 964 1,091 -144 -12 11 23 34 44 52
AIME quintile (dollars)
0 719 710 741 17 3 10 18 26 33 42
1882 555 994 1,143 -137 -12 14 27 40 48 55
2933 338 1,230 1,472 -244 -17 14 31 43 57 63
4029 181 1,360 1,728 -367 -21 9 21 32 46 57
5136 97 1,574 1,914 -332 -17 4 20 40 60 70
Men
All 4,442 1,471 1,608 -140 -9 16 35 53 68 76
AIME quintile (dollars)
0 511 936 768 211 30 6 13 19 27 34
1882 690 1,264 1,155 101 9 14 28 38 50 60
2933 937 1,463 1,493 -35 -2 34 56 72 80 87
4029 1,097 1,496 1,705 -172 -10 18 49 72 83 87
5136 1,207 1,583 1,908 -296 -15 5 19 47 76 89
Zero earners
All 166 379 820 -434 -53 8 13 15 17 22
Sex
Women 124 379 741 -410 -49 9 14 16 17 23
Men 42 364 1,232 -651 -64 6 11 13 16 19
SOURCE: Authors' calculations using MINT simulations.
NOTES: The inflated Statement PIA is the median estimated PIA calculated for eligible cohort members in the year they attain a given Statement age, adjusted for the growth of wages between the second year prior to the Statement age and the year cohort members reached age 60. The retirement PIA is the median PIA received at age 62 for the cohort. The AIME thresholds shown are the lowest values for the quintile. Zero Earners are those with zero earnings in the 2 years prior to the Statement year.
PIA = primary insurance amount; AIME = average indexed monthly earnings; MINT = Modeling Income in the Near Term.
a. Values in the difference columns are median differences, not the differences between the medians reported in the inflated Statement PIA and retirement PIA columns.
Table 4B. Inflated Statement PIA compared with retirement PIA at Statement age 35, by sex and AIME quintile, 1940–1946 birth cohorts
Beneficiary group Sample size PIA (dollars) Inflated Statement PIA difference a from retirement PIA Percent of individuals whose inflated Statement PIA is within various percentage points of retirement PIA
Inflated Statement Retirement Dollars Percent Within 5 percent Within 10 percent Within 15 percent Within 20 percent Within 25 percent
1940–1946 birth cohorts
All 8,375 1,364 1,388 -58 -4 25 47 59 67 74
Sex
Women 3,295 903 1,043 -104 -9 17 32 43 53 61
Men 5,080 1,601 1,600 -36 -2 30 56 69 77 82
AIME quintile (dollars)
0 1,635 652 697 -2 0 14 26 36 45 52
1604 1,665 1,029 1,060 -26 -2 15 29 40 49 58
2648 1,669 1,374 1,388 -7 -1 20 36 52 64 74
3771 1,687 1,615 1,670 -39 -2 50 71 79 85 89
4998 1,719 1,734 1,888 -147 -8 27 72 90 94 95
Women
All 3,295 903 1,043 -104 -9 17 32 43 53 61
AIME quintile (dollars)
0 1,131 622 695 -20 -3 12 25 35 44 52
1604 984 912 1,044 -122 -12 17 30 40 50 58
2648 643 1,184 1,372 -185 -13 19 32 46 55 64
3771 365 1,512 1,682 -157 -10 29 50 62 72 78
4998 172 1,684 1,898 -172 -9 22 54 70 80 86
Men
All 5,080 1,601 1,600 -36 -2 30 56 69 77 82
AIME quintile (dollars)
0 504 720 702 20 3 19 28 38 45 52
1604 681 1,187 1,079 115 10 13 27 39 49 57
2648 1,026 1,510 1,399 79 5 20 39 56 70 79
3771 1,322 1,626 1,668 -22 -1 56 77 84 89 92
4998 1,547 1,738 1,887 -144 -8 28 74 92 95 96
Zero earners
All 620 445 711 -275 -39 16 21 26 31 36
Sex
Women 442 440 729 -292 -40 13 19 23 27 33
Men 178 457 680 -188 -32 23 28 35 41 44
SOURCE: Authors' calculations using MINT simulations.
NOTES: The inflated Statement PIA is the median estimated PIA calculated for eligible cohort members in the year they attain a given Statement age, adjusted for the growth of wages between the second year prior to the Statement age and the year cohort members reached age 60. The retirement PIA is the median PIA received at age 62 for the cohort. The AIME thresholds shown are the lowest values for the quintile. Zero Earners are those with zero earnings in the 2 years prior to the Statement year.
PIA = primary insurance amount; AIME = average indexed monthly earnings; MINT = Modeling Income in the Near Term.
a. Values in the difference columns are median differences, not the differences between the medians reported in the inflated Statement PIA and retirement PIA columns.
Table 5B. Inflated Statement PIA compared with retirement PIA at Statement age 40, by sex and AIME quintile, 1940–1946 birth cohorts
Beneficiary group Sample size PIA (dollars) Inflated Statement PIA difference a from retirement PIA Percent of individuals whose inflated Statement PIA is within various percentage points of retirement PIA
Inflated Statement Retirement Dollars Percent Within 5 percent Within 10 percent Within 15 percent Within 20 percent Within 25 percent
1940–1946 birth cohorts
All 9,621 1,270 1,298 -19 -2 33 53 65 73 79
Sex
Women 4,361 889 974 -60 -6 23 39 51 62 70
Men 5,260 1,625 1,593 2 0 41 63 75 82 86
AIME quintile (dollars)
0 1,894 596 648 -18 -3 23 35 46 56 64
1393 1,910 920 973 -37 -4 19 35 47 59 68
2386 1,917 1,276 1,298 -14 -1 21 39 53 67 77
3512 1,936 1,636 1,630 9 1 40 67 80 87 91
4831 1,964 1,842 1,870 -28 -1 61 88 95 97 98
Women
All 4,361 889 974 -60 -6 23 39 51 62 70
AIME quintile (dollars)
0 1,449 590 646 -23 -4 21 32 43 54 61
1393 1,287 883 962 -71 -8 20 35 48 60 69
2386 912 1,176 1,273 -93 -7 22 39 52 66 76
3512 497 1,519 1,627 -109 -7 32 54 67 76 83
4831 216 1,781 1,872 -87 -5 48 74 86 91 94
Men
All 5,260 1,625 1,593 2 0 41 63 75 82 86
AIME quintile (dollars)
0 445 617 654 -5 -1 32 43 55 65 72
1393 623 1,013 997 26 3 19 34 46 56 65
2386 1,005 1,372 1,313 58 5 21 39 55 67 77
3512 1,439 1,661 1,632 29 2 42 70 84 90 93
4831 1,748 1,847 1,870 -22 -1 62 89 96 98 98
Zero earners
All 890 473 694 -167 -25 25 30 37 43 50
Sex
Women 574 428 665 -174 -29 21 26 33 39 44
Men 316 571 743 -130 -19 30 36 44 51 59
SOURCE: Authors' calculations using MINT simulations.
NOTES: The inflated Statement PIA is the median estimated PIA calculated for eligible cohort members in the year they attain a given Statement age, adjusted for the growth of wages between the second year prior to the Statement age and the year cohort members reached age 60. The retirement PIA is the median PIA received at age 62 for the cohort. The AIME thresholds shown are the lowest values for the quintile. Zero Earners are those with zero earnings in the 2 years prior to the Statement year.
PIA = primary insurance amount; AIME = average indexed monthly earnings; MINT = Modeling Income in the Near Term.
a. Values in the difference columns are median differences, not the differences between the medians reported in the inflated Statement PIA and retirement PIA columns.
Table 6B. Inflated Statement PIA compared with retirement PIA at Statement age 45, by sex and AIME quintile, 1940–1946 birth cohorts
Beneficiary group Sample size PIA (dollars) Inflated Statement PIA difference a from retirement PIA Percent of individuals whose inflated Statement PIA is within various percentage points of retirement PIA
Inflated Statement Retirement Dollars Percent Within 5 percent Within 10 percent Within 15 percent Within 20 percent Within 25 percent
1940–1946 birth cohorts
All 10,452 1,222 1,244 -12 -1 41 62 75 83 88
Sex
Women 5,090 881 933 -39 -4 30 49 65 76 82
Men 5,362 1,603 1,590 0 0 50 74 85 90 93
AIME quintile (dollars)
0 2,069 570 618 -19 -3 30 45 58 67 72
1239 2,086 873 920 -38 -4 27 49 65 78 86
2221 2,073 1,218 1,244 -18 -1 33 54 69 80 87
3327 2,092 1,610 1,607 9 1 48 73 87 93 97
4732 2,132 1,853 1,861 -1 0 65 91 98 99 99
Women
All 5,090 881 933 -39 -4 30 49 65 76 82
AIME quintile (dollars)
0 1,671 570 618 -26 -4 26 42 56 65 71
1239 1,499 862 914 -50 -5 24 46 63 77 85
2221 1,082 1,172 1,225 -49 -4 30 51 66 79 87
3327 588 1,548 1,599 -41 -3 43 63 82 89 95
4732 250 1,814 1,862 -36 -2 54 84 95 97 99
Men
All 5,362 1,603 1,590 0 0 50 74 85 90 93
AIME quintile (dollars)
0 398 567 615 -4 -1 46 56 67 73 79
1239 587 899 939 -18 -2 34 56 68 80 86
2221 991 1,268 1,266 8 1 35 57 72 82 88
3327 1,504 1,628 1,611 19 1 50 76 89 95 98
4732 1,882 1,859 1,861 2 0 66 92 98 99 99
Zero earners
All 960 526 637 -71 -11 40 48 56 63 70
Sex
Women 560 434 598 -88 -15 35 42 50 58 65
Men 400 630 721 -47 -7 46 55 64 71 77
SOURCE: Authors' calculations using MINT simulations.
NOTES: The inflated Statement PIA is the median estimated PIA calculated for eligible cohort members in the year they attain a given Statement age, adjusted for the growth of wages between the second year prior to the Statement age and the year cohort members reached age 60. The retirement PIA is the median PIA received at age 62 for the cohort. The AIME thresholds shown are the lowest values for the quintile. Zero Earners are those with zero earnings in the 2 years prior to the Statement year.
PIA = primary insurance amount; AIME = average indexed monthly earnings; MINT = Modeling Income in the Near Term.
a. Values in the difference columns are median differences, not the differences between the medians reported in the inflated Statement PIA and retirement PIA columns.
Table 7B. Inflated Statement PIA compared with retirement PIA at Statement age 50, by sex and AIME quintile, 1940–1946 birth cohorts
Beneficiary group Sample size PIA (dollars) Inflated Statement PIA difference a from retirement PIA Percent of individuals whose inflated Statement PIA is within various percentage points of retirement PIA
Inflated Statement Retirement Dollars Percent Within 5 percent Within 10 percent Within 15 percent Within 20 percent Within 25 percent
1940–1946 birth cohorts
All 11,033 1,189 1,202 -15 -1 50 72 84 91 94
Sex
Women 5,586 925 897 -25 -3 39 61 77 85 91
Men 5,447 1,446 1,583 -8 -1 60 83 92 95 97
AIME quintile (dollars)
0 2,191 504 588 -16 -3 40 55 67 75 81
1129 2,203 851 877 -24 -3 40 64 81 90 94
2083 2,180 1,177 1,202 -25 -2 42 69 84 92 96
3199 2,213 1,556 1,587 -8 0 58 80 91 97 99
4651 2,246 1,857 1,853 -5 0 69 94 99 100 100
Women
All 5,586 925 897 -25 -3 39 61 77 85 91
AIME quintile (dollars)
0 1,803 550 586 -19 -3 36 53 65 73 81
1129 1,652 840 875 -28 -3 35 61 80 90 95
2083 1,210 1,152 1,185 -34 -3 38 63 81 91 96
3199 642 1,538 1,574 -18 -1 50 72 87 94 98
4651 279 1,812 1,848 -22 -1 54 88 97 98 100
Men
All 5,447 1,446 1,583 -8 -1 60 83 92 95 97
AIME quintile (dollars)
0 388 534 598 -4 -1 54 64 73 81 85
1129 551 856 893 -14 -2 51 73 84 89 92
2083 970 1,198 1,224 -17 -1 48 76 88 93 96
3199 1,571 1,577 1,592 -3 0 60 83 93 97 99
4651 1,967 1,848 1,853 -3 0 71 95 99 100 100
Zero earners
All 1,123 564 632 -21 -3 54 65 74 80 85
Sex
Women 649 463 565 -18 -4 53 63 71 77 82
Men 474 676 732 -23 -3 55 68 79 84 87
SOURCE: Authors' calculations using MINT simulations.
NOTES: The inflated Statement PIA is the median estimated PIA calculated for eligible cohort members in the year they attain a given Statement age, adjusted for the growth of wages between the second year prior to the Statement age and the year cohort members reached age 60. The retirement PIA is the median PIA received at age 62 for the cohort. The AIME thresholds shown are the lowest values for the quintile. Zero Earners are those with zero earnings in the 2 years prior to the Statement year.
PIA = primary insurance amount; AIME = average indexed monthly earnings; MINT = Modeling Income in the Near Term.
a. Values in the difference columns are median differences, not the differences between the medians reported in the inflated Statement PIA and retirement PIA columns.
Table 8B. Inflated Statement PIA compared with retirement PIA at Statement age 55, by sex and AIME quintile, 1940–1946 birth cohorts
Beneficiary group Sample size PIA (dollars) Inflated Statement PIA difference a from retirement PIA Percent of individuals whose inflated Statement PIA is within various percentage points of retirement PIA
Inflated Statement Retirement Dollars Percent Within 5 percent Within 10 percent Within 15 percent Within 20 percent Within 25 percent
1940–1946 birth cohorts
All 11,423 1,138 1,173 -18 -2 57 78 88 93 95
Sex
Women 5,895 838 875 -26 -3 45 68 81 89 93
Men 5,528 1,550 1,577 -12 -1 68 88 94 96 97
AIME quintile (dollars)
0 2,285 488 562 -17 -3 46 60 70 78 83
1055 2,260 813 846 -23 -3 48 74 88 94 97
1980 2,265 1,139 1,173 -22 -2 51 77 89 94 97
3112 2,289 1,544 1,573 -13 -1 66 84 93 97 99
4599 2,324 1,826 1,849 -15 -1 72 95 99 100 100
Women
All 5,895 838 875 -26 -3 45 68 81 89 93
AIME quintile (dollars)
0 1,894 483 560 -22 -4 43 58 68 77 83
1055 1,711 807 842 -26 -3 45 72 88 95 98
1980 1,301 1,115 1,159 -34 -3 42 70 85 93 97
3112 694 1,508 1,545 -27 -2 50 73 87 94 98
4599 295 1,790 1,841 -42 -2 55 86 95 98 100
Men
All 5,528 1,550 1,577 -12 -1 68 88 94 96 97
AIME quintile (dollars)
0 391 510 573 -2 0 57 68 76 80 82
1055 549 826 857 -16 -2 57 80 89 92 94
1980 964 1,177 1,194 -15 -1 62 86 93 96 98
3112 1,595 1,554 1,580 -10 -1 73 89 96 98 99
4599 2,029 1,832 1,851 -13 -1 74 96 99 100 100
Zero earners
All 1,477 599 633 -1 0 70 79 85 88 90
Sex
Women 913 525 562 0 0 68 77 83 87 90
Men 564 742 772 -1 0 73 83 87 90 91
SOURCE: Authors' calculations using MINT simulations.
NOTES: The inflated Statement PIA is the median estimated PIA calculated for eligible cohort members in the year they attain a given Statement age, adjusted for the growth of wages between the second year prior to the Statement age and the year cohort members reached age 60. The retirement PIA is the median PIA received at age 62 for the cohort. The AIME thresholds shown are the lowest values for the quintile. Zero Earners are those with zero earnings in the 2 years prior to the Statement year.
PIA = primary insurance amount; AIME = average indexed monthly earnings; MINT = Modeling Income in the Near Term.
a. Values in the difference columns are median differences, not the differences between the medians reported in the inflated Statement PIA and retirement PIA columns.
Table 9B. Inflated Statement PIA median percent difference from retirement PIA in 1940–1946 cohorts, by birth cohort and Statement age
Birth Cohort Statement Age
25 30 35 40 45 50 55
1940 -21 -6 -2 2 1 1 0
1941 -24 -10 -5 0 0 0 0
1942 -10 -13 -4 1 0 0 -1
1943 -4 -10 -5 -1 0 -1 -2
1944 -14 -9 -5 -3 -2 -3 -3
1945 -12 -7 -3 -4 -3 -4 -4
1946 -18 -10 -4 -5 -4 -5 -5
SOURCE: Authors' calculations using MINT simulations.
NOTES: The inflated Statement PIA is the median estimated PIA calculated for eligible cohort members in the year they attain a given Statement age, adjusted for the growth of wages between the second year prior to the Statement age and the year cohort members reached age 60. The retirement PIA is the median PIA received at age 62 for the cohort.
PIA = primary insurance amount; MINT = Modeling Income in the Near Term.
Table 10B. Percent of workers in 1940–1946 cohorts whose inflated Statement PIA is within various percentage points of retirement PIAs, by birth cohort and Statement age
Birth cohort Statement age
25 30 35 40 45 50 55
Percent of cases within 5 percentage points
1940 0 20 27 34 42 56 71
1941 8 12 24 34 41 54 68
1942 11 10 25 35 43 56 64
1943 15 14 25 34 44 52 59
1944 12 14 23 32 43 47 53
1945 13 17 28 32 39 45 46
1946 6 15 26 31 35 41 42
Percent of cases within 10 percentage points
1940 6 38 49 50 61 77 88
1941 16 27 47 52 62 74 86
1942 27 23 47 52 64 78 84
1943 19 32 46 57 63 74 81
1944 31 32 45 51 64 72 76
1945 20 37 48 54 63 70 71
1946 24 32 47 51 60 65 66
Percent of cases within 15 percentage points
1940 8 56 59 60 72 88 94
1941 16 42 59 63 73 85 93
1942 34 40 59 63 75 87 92
1943 30 48 59 67 75 85 89
1944 44 48 59 65 77 84 87
1945 40 53 60 67 77 84 83
1946 27 49 60 65 76 80 81
Percent of cases within 20 percentage points
1940 35 66 67 69 81 91 96
1941 30 58 67 72 82 91 96
1942 43 58 67 72 83 92 95
1943 41 63 66 75 83 90 93
1944 62 62 68 74 85 91 92
1945 63 62 67 75 85 91 90
1946 49 60 69 74 84 89 88
Percent of cases within 25 percentage points
1940 50 72 75 75 87 94 98
1941 32 65 73 79 87 93 97
1942 48 72 73 78 88 95 97
1943 54 72 72 80 87 94 95
1944 74 71 73 80 89 94 94
1945 67 68 75 80 89 94 94
1946 64 67 75 80 90 93 93
SOURCE: Authors' calculations using MINT simulations.
NOTES: The inflated Statement PIA is the median estimated PIA calculated for eligible cohort members in the year they attain a given Statement age, adjusted for the growth of wages between the second year prior to the Statement age and the year cohort members reached age 60. The retirement PIA is the median PIA received at age 62 for the cohort.
PIA = primary insurance amount; MINT = Modeling Income in the Near Term.
Table 11B. Inflated Statement PIA compared with retirement PIA for 1940 birth cohort, by sex, AIME quintile, and Statement age
Beneficiary group Sample size PIA (dollars) Inflated Statement PIA difference a from retirement PIA Percent of individuals whose inflated Statement PIA is within various percentage points of retirement PIA
Inflated Statement Retirement Dollars Percent Within 5 percent Within 10 percent Within 15 percent Within 20 percent Within 25 percent
Statement age 25
All 34 1,275 1,558 -313 -21 0 6 8 35 50
Sex
Women b b b b b b b b b b
Men b b b b b b b b b b
AIME quintile
Lowest b b b b b b b b b b
Second b b b b b b b b b b
Third b b b b b b b b b b
Fourth b b b b b b b b b b
Highest b b b b b b b b b b
Statement age 30
All 692 1,384 1,354 -73 -6 20 38 56 66 72
Sex
Women 191 920 943 -65 -7 13 27 39 48 54
Men 501 1,476 1,495 -78 -6 23 42 62 73 78
AIME quintile (dollars)
0 131 717 664 109 19 13 19 24 32 39
1613 137 1,128 1,042 56 6 14 26 41 46 51
2643 140 1,436 1,354 10 1 33 52 68 80 88
3629 139 1,480 1,549 -100 -6 42 75 81 86 88
4501 145 1,496 1,716 -243 -14 0 16 66 89 92
Statement age 35
All 938 1,284 1,266 -22 -2 27 49 59 67 75
Sex
Women 352 785 943 -97 -10 16 29 40 49 60
Men 586 1,534 1,485 -4 0 33 61 70 77 83
AIME quintile (dollars)
0 181 603 636 -6 -1 14 24 33 42 55
1384 191 977 964 -4 0 16 27 37 47 56
2386 183 1,304 1,260 61 4 16 31 47 61 74
3349 186 1,545 1,516 8 1 53 79 86 89 91
4314 197 1,608 1,694 -113 -7 35 84 93 95 96
Statement age 40
All 1,113 1,219 1,156 22 2 34 50 60 69 75
Sex
Women 509 814 860 -11 -1 23 37 48 59 66
Men 604 1,559 1,474 48 3 42 60 70 77 82
AIME quintile (dollars)
0 222 569 577 -1 0 23 34 43 54 61
1132 225 905 859 33 3 18 29 39 51 58
2121 217 1,243 1,156 58 5 20 32 42 55 65
3078 217 1,549 1,489 61 4 35 60 79 87 93
4157 232 1,703 1,678 -4 0 72 95 97 98 98
Statement age 45
All 1,194 1,156 1,117 10 1 42 61 72 81 87
Sex
Women 583 804 831 -8 -1 33 48 62 73 80
Men 611 1,520 1,473 39 3 50 73 81 89 93
AIME quintile (dollars)
0 243 532 562 -3 -1 28 39 47 61 68
1057 239 791 809 -19 -2 35 51 66 73 82
1989 234 1,156 1,117 18 2 34 53 66 79 85
2970 229 1,503 1,463 34 2 44 69 82 94 97
4061 249 1,733 1,668 48 3 68 93 99 99 99
Statement age 50
All 1,277 1,099 1,086 9 1 56 77 88 91 94
Sex
Women 657 777 783 0 0 47 68 83 88 92
Men 620 1,500 1,469 20 1 64 86 92 95 97
AIME quintile (dollars)
0 260 537 550 0 0 39 55 68 74 82
981 254 757 775 -2 0 50 72 83 89 93
1819 249 1,097 1,086 4 0 52 73 90 94 97
2823 251 1,481 1,439 26 2 60 89 97 98 99
3958 263 1,704 1,660 37 2 77 96 99 100 100
Statement age 55
All 1,325 1,077 1,062 1 0 71 88 94 96 98
Sex
Women 694 768 769 0 0 61 82 92 95 97
Men 631 1,486 1,462 6 0 83 95 97 98 99
AIME quintile (dollars)
0 271 492 538 0 0 58 73 80 86 90
901 262 742 737 0 0 61 87 93 98 98
1731 261 1,075 1,062 3 0 68 86 98 99 100
2742 260 1,437 1,415 12 1 80 96 100 100 100
3905 271 1,676 1,654 18 1 91 100 100 100 100
SOURCE: Authors' calculations using MINT simulations.
NOTES: The inflated Statement PIA is the median estimated PIA calculated for eligible cohort members in the year they attain a given Statement age, adjusted for the growth of wages between the second year prior to the Statement age and the year cohort members reached age 60. The retirement PIA is the median PIA received at age 62 for the cohort. The AIME thresholds shown are the lowest values for the quintile.
PIA = primary insurance amount; AIME = average indexed monthly earnings; MINT = Modeling Income in the Near Term.
a. Values in the difference columns are median differences, not the differences between the medians reported in the inflated Statement PIA and retirement PIA columns.
b. Data not shown due to small sample sizes.
Table 12B. Inflated Statement PIA compared with retirement PIA for 1941 birth cohort, by sex, AIME quintile, and Statement age
Beneficiary group Sample size PIA (dollars) Inflated Statement PIA difference a from retirement PIA Percent of individuals whose inflated Statement PIA is within various percentage points of retirement PIA
Inflated Statement Retirement Dollars Percent Within 5 percent Within 10 percent Within 15 percent Within 20 percent Within 25 percent
Statement age 25
All 42 1,114 1,375 -394 -24 8 16 16 30 32
Sex
Women b b b b b b b b b b
Men b b b b b b b b b b
AIME quintile
Lowest b b b b b b b b b b
Second b b b b b b b b b b
Third b b b b b b b b b b
Fourth b b b b b b b b b b
Highest b b b b b b b b b b
Statement age 30
All 754 1,369 1,404 -149 -10 12 27 42 58 65
Sex
Women 221 894 983 -124 -10 10 21 31 38 43
Men 533 1,451 1,556 -156 -10 12 29 47 67 74
AIME quintile (dollars)
0 139 847 709 180 32 3 7 14 18 28
1667 156 1,094 1,068 -18 -2 12 23 31 42 45
2784 154 1,409 1,401 -35 -2 34 56 70 78 82
3810 151 1,455 1,605 -169 -10 10 47 69 75 82
4810 154 1,502 1,781 -311 -17 0 0 27 78 89
Statement age 35
All 992 1,274 1,292 -58 -5 24 47 59 67 73
Sex
Women 394 807 904 -76 -8 16 32 43 51 59
Men 598 1,564 1,549 -53 -4 29 57 70 78 82
AIME quintile (dollars)
0 193 609 652 0 0 16 26 38 46 52
1428 192 870 955 -45 -6 14 29 36 46 53
2454 202 1,288 1,291 -35 -3 15 27 48 62 71
2569 204 1,565 1,579 -23 -1 52 75 82 88 92
4581 201 1,647 1,770 -149 -8 24 76 92 94 95
Statement age 40
All 1,164 1,206 1,202 -1 0 34 52 63 72 79
Sex
Women 538 801 881 -32 -4 25 37 50 61 70
Men 626 1,602 1,547 17 1 43 65 75 82 86
AIME quintile (dollars)
0 227 586 603 -3 -1 29 38 51 61 70
1279 221 833 878 -32 -4 19 31 42 56 64
2139 240 1,233 1,198 43 3 17 35 47 60 71
3244 238 1,581 1,546 34 2 37 65 80 88 93
4437 238 1,758 1,749 -6 0 72 94 97 97 97
Statement age 45
All 1,292 1,138 1,139 0 0 41 62 73 82 87
Sex
Women 646 804 849 -7 -1 30 49 62 74 82
Men 646 1,567 1,540 15 1 51 74 85 90 92
AIME quintile (dollars)
0 255 561 576 0 0 37 47 57 65 72
1144 248 800 833 -19 -2 30 53 65 76 83
1947 265 1,105 1,138 -23 -2 23 42 60 75 84
3010 260 1,548 1,525 32 2 42 70 87 94 97
4306 264 1,769 1,738 33 2 72 96 99 99 100
Statement age 50
All 1,368 1,110 1,092 3 0 54 74 85 91 93
Sex
Women 713 831 820 0 0 42 64 79 86 90
Men 655 1,546 1,537 12 1 67 86 92 96 97
AIME quintile (dollars)
0 274 532 551 -1 0 48 61 71 78 82
1086 262 799 802 -7 -1 38 61 80 87 92
1833 279 1,104 1,092 10 1 42 67 82 91 94
2868 277 1,519 1,506 21 1 65 85 96 99 100
4194 276 1,758 1,730 33 2 78 97 99 100 100
Statement age 55
All 1,411 1,064 1,064 0 0 68 86 93 96 97
Sex
Women 749 795 809 -4 -1 57 79 88 94 96
Men 662 1,535 1,533 0 0 80 94 98 98 99
AIME quintile (dollars)
0 287 480 530 -1 0 58 72 78 86 90
1012 266 766 784 -15 -2 58 84 93 97 99
1748 288 1,064 1,064 0 0 61 83 94 98 98
2832 286 1,498 1,489 2 0 78 94 99 100 100
4160 284 1,729 1,727 13 1 85 99 99 100 100
SOURCE: Authors' calculations using MINT simulations.
NOTES: The inflated Statement PIA is the median estimated PIA calculated for eligible cohort members in the year they attain a given Statement age, adjusted for the growth of wages between the second year prior to the Statement age and the year cohort members reached age 60. The retirement PIA is the median PIA received at age 62 for the cohort. The AIME thresholds shown are the lowest values for the quintile.
PIA = primary insurance amount; AIME = average indexed monthly earnings; MINT = Modeling Income in the Near Term
a. Values in the difference columns are median differences, not the differences between the medians reported in the inflated Statement PIA and retirement PIA columns.
b. Data not shown due to small sample sizes.
Table 13B. Inflated Statement PIA compared with retirement PIA for 1942 birth cohort, by sex, AIME quintile, and Statement age
Beneficiary group Sample size PIA (dollars) Inflated Statement PIA difference a from retirement PIA Percent of individuals whose inflated Statement PIA is within various percentage points of retirement PIA
Inflated Statement Retirement Dollars Percent Within 5 percent Within 10 percent Within 15 percent Within 20 percent Within 25 percent
Statement age 25
All 35 1,175 1,697 -153 -10 11 27 34 43 48
Sex
Women b b b b b b b b b b
Men b b b b b b b b b b
AIME quintile
Lowest b b b b b b b b b b
Second b b b b b b b b b b
Third b b b b b b b b b b
Fourth b b b b b b b b b b
Highest b b b b b b b b b b
Statement age 30
All 938 1,361 1,447 -186 -13 10 23 40 58 72
Sex
Women 234 860 976 -158 -15 9 21 33 46 55
Men 704 1,418 1,572 -196 -13 10 24 42 62 77
AIME quintile (dollars)
0 174 742 702 80 12 9 17 29 39 44
1630 190 1,099 1,086 54 6 11 25 36 48 57
2812 185 1,378 1,447 -103 -7 30 56 67 75 83
3960 190 1,449 1,650 -225 -13 0 19 67 82 85
4940 199 1,465 1,807 -374 -20 0 0 0 46 88
Statement age 35
All 1,243 1,350 1,340 -62 -4 25 47 59 67 73
Sex
Women 423 875 939 -89 -9 18 30 41 51 58
Men 820 1,582 1,570 -49 -3 29 56 68 75 80
AIME quintile (dollars)
0 236 620 665 0 0 13 21 32 44 51
1477 248 977 967 5 1 12 25 33 43 52
2483 249 1,408 1,339 38 3 23 38 53 65 75
3745 251 1,595 1,620 -38 -2 59 77 83 87 90
4819 259 1,663 1,796 -152 -8 18 75 93 96 97
Statement age 40
All 1,454 1,243 1,215 6 1 35 52 63 72 78
Sex
Women 609 850 893 -22 -2 25 39 51 62 70
Men 845 1,607 1,561 29 2 43 62 72 79 84
AIME quintile (dollars)
0 280 578 619 0 0 22 35 46 55 61
1263 289 901 897 1 0 19 32 41 52 62
2196 292 1,233 1,215 20 2 20 37 50 65 76
3307 291 1,614 1,591 29 2 43 64 82 91 93
4700 302 1,798 1,778 4 0 71 94 97 97 98
Statement age 45
All 1,578 1,153 1,161 0 0 43 64 75 83 88
Sex
Women 719 794 852 -34 -4 30 51 63 74 80
Men 859 1,589 1,560 16 1 53 75 85 90 94
AIME quintile (dollars)
0 304 539 581 -9 -1 30 45 58 67 72
1117 313 803 849 -42 -5 26 50 62 75 86
2003 319 1,142 1,161 -20 -2 32 55 67 77 85
3153 315 1,590 1,568 22 1 54 76 89 94 97
4623 327 1,811 1,767 25 1 71 95 99 100 100
Statement age 50
All 1,677 1,103 1,116 -2 0 56 78 87 92 95
Sex
Women 803 791 822 -14 -1 45 67 79 86 92
Men 874 1,556 1,555 1 0 67 87 93 96 98
AIME quintile (dollars)
0 329 507 564 -8 -1 42 56 67 75 83
1040 327 787 811 -13 -2 45 74 86 92 97
1847 338 1,106 1,116 -16 -1 47 74 86 91 96
2991 335 1,555 1,550 5 0 68 89 94 99 99
4511 348 1,783 1,761 17 1 80 97 100 100 100
Statement age 55
All 1,739 1,070 1,090 -9 -1 64 84 92 95 97
Sex
Women 861 769 797 -17 -2 51 75 87 92 95
Men 878 1,551 1,551 -4 0 78 93 97 98 99
AIME quintile (dollars)
0 345 451 516 -13 -3 48 64 76 84 87
971 338 766 789 -12 -2 55 81 94 97 99
1772 351 1,070 1,090 -17 -2 56 82 91 95 98
2888 346 1,530 1,541 -9 -1 78 94 98 99 100
4454 359 1,771 1,755 3 0 85 100 100 100 100
SOURCE: Authors' calculations using MINT simulations.
NOTES: The inflated Statement PIA is the median estimated PIA calculated for eligible cohort members in the year they attain a given Statement age, adjusted for the growth of wages between the second year prior to the Statement age and the year cohort members reached age 60. The retirement PIA is the median PIA received at age 62 for the cohort. The AIME thresholds shown are the lowest values for the quintile.
PIA = primary insurance amount; AIME = average indexed monthly earnings; MINT = Modeling Income in the Near Term
a. Values in the difference columns are median differences, not the differences between the medians reported in the inflated Statement PIA and retirement PIA columns.
b. Data not shown due to small sample sizes.
Table 14B. Inflated Statement PIA compared with retirement PIA for 1943 birth cohort, by sex, AIME quintile, and Statement age
Beneficiary group Sample size PIA (dollars) Inflated Statement PIA difference a from retirement PIA Percent of individuals whose inflated Statement PIA is within various percentage points of retirement PIA
Inflated Statement Retirement Dollars Percent Within 5 percent Within 10 percent Within 15 percent Within 20 percent Within 25 percent
Statement age 25
All 27 1,345 1,281 -61 -4 15 19 30 41 54
Sex
Women b b b b b b b b b b
Men b b b b b b b b b b
AIME quintile
Lowest b b b b b b b b b b
Second b b b b b b b b b b
Third b b b b b b b b b b
Fourth b b b b b b b b b b
Highest b b b b b b b b b b
Statement age 30
All 899 1,392 1,451 -145 -10 14 32 48 63 72
Sex
Women 250 939 1,038 -123 -12 11 22 36 45 55
Men 649 1,495 1,583 -147 -9 15 36 52 70 78
AIME quintile (dollars)
0 184 768 776 46 5 9 19 28 35 44
1945 169 1,180 1,151 43 4 14 31 40 49 59
2873 174 1,410 1,449 -42 -3 28 46 64 73 80
3969 180 1,554 1,674 -148 -9 18 62 72 76 83
4982 192 1,574 1,841 -308 -16 0 3 36 81 93
Statement age 35
All 1,213 1,309 1,321 -67 -5 25 46 59 66 72
Sex
Women 472 854 982 -125 -11 17 31 42 49 58
Men 741 1,606 1,586 -38 -3 30 56 70 76 81
AIME quintile (dollars)
0 245 650 700 -4 -1 14 25 35 44 53
1647 240 1,004 1,044 -25 -2 18 31 41 48 57
2584 233 1,282 1,321 -47 -4 15 32 47 57 65
3617 240 1,621 1,635 -23 -1 54 72 78 83 88
4811 255 1,703 1,829 -152 -8 23 73 95 97 99
Statement age 40
All 1,389 1,211 1,260 -20 -1 34 57 67 75 80
Sex
Women 626 863 947 -45 -4 26 45 55 65 71
Men 763 1,594 1,579 0 0 41 66 76 83 87
AIME quintile (dollars)
0 276 592 637 -12 -2 24 35 47 59 66
1417 284 922 961 -34 -3 23 44 55 61 70
2369 261 1,211 1,260 -38 -3 25 45 57 70 79
3353 280 1,609 1,608 17 1 40 68 79 87 90
4655 288 1,804 1,815 -27 -1 58 92 96 97 98
Statement age 45
All 1,502 1,202 1,214 -3 0 44 63 75 83 87
Sex
Women 731 855 901 -25 -3 32 50 65 75 80
Men 771 1,597 1,578 7 0 54 75 85 90 94
AIME quintile (dollars)
0 298 563 610 -33 -5 32 45 56 64 68
1241 307 875 905 -18 -2 29 51 64 76 84
2210 290 1,191 1,212 -11 -1 35 56 71 81 88
3215 296 1,599 1,587 17 1 51 73 88 95 97
4594 311 1,821 1,809 11 1 71 92 98 99 99
Statement age 50
All 1,594 1,136 1,173 -15 -1 52 74 85 90 94
Sex
Women 806 830 861 -20 -2 42 63 77 85 90
Men 788 1,532 1,574 -11 -1 62 85 93 96 97
AIME quintile (dollars)
0 320 546 579 -16 -3 37 53 63 73 79
1106 321 827 857 -26 -3 42 65 80 88 93
2037 309 1,135 1,173 -21 -2 45 72 88 93 97
3034 316 1,530 1,569 -13 -1 60 82 94 98 100
4515 328 1,798 1,802 3 0 74 98 100 100 100
Statement age 55
All 1,657 1,112 1,137 -17 -2 59 81 89 93 95
Sex
Women 856 805 836 -22 -2 48 72 82 89 93
Men 801 1,531 1,569 -15 -1 70 90 95 97 97
AIME quintile (dollars)
0 335 461 558 -17 -4 46 58 68 76 82
1014 330 794 825 -23 -3 48 74 86 93 95
1922 326 1,116 1,137 -19 -2 56 85 92 97 98
2934 326 1,511 1,537 -22 -1 66 88 97 99 100
4447 340 1,787 1,794 -1 0 79 99 100 100 100
SOURCE: Authors' calculations using MINT simulations.
NOTES: The inflated Statement PIA is the median estimated PIA calculated for eligible cohort members in the year they attain a given Statement age, adjusted for the growth of wages between the second year prior to the Statement age and the year cohort members reached age 60. The retirement PIA is the median PIA received at age 62 for the cohort. The AIME thresholds shown are the lowest values for the quintile.
PIA = primary insurance amount; AIME = average indexed monthly earnings; MINT = Modeling Income in the Near Term
a. Values in the difference columns are median differences, not the differences between the medians reported in the inflated Statement PIA and retirement PIA columns.
b. Data not shown due to small sample sizes.
Table 15B. Inflated Statement PIA compared with retirement PIA for 1944 birth cohort, by sex, AIME quintile, and Statement age
Beneficiary group Sample size PIA (dollars) Inflated Statement PIA difference a from retirement PIA Percent of individuals whose inflated Statement PIA is within various percentage points of retirement PIA
Inflated Statement Retirement Dollars Percent Within 5 percent Within 10 percent Within 15 percent Within 20 percent Within 25 percent
Statement age 25
All 38 1,451 1,706 -214 -14 12 31 44 62 74
Sex
Women b b b b b b b b b b
Men b b b b b b b b b b
AIME quintile
Lowest b b b b b b b b b b
Second b b b b b b b b b b
Third b b b b b b b b b b
Fourth b b b b b b b b b b
Highest b b b b b b b b b b
Statement age 30
All 915 1,428 1,462 -135 -9 14 32 48 62 71
Sex
Women 255 962 1,100 -152 -12 12 23 35 43 52
Men 660 1,553 1,646 -133 -8 15 35 52 69 78
AIME quintile (dollars)
0 181 856 775 71 18 11 20 28 32 41
1924 175 1,168 1,137 25 2 14 30 41 48 56
2903 183 1,437 1,457 -50 -3 24 40 56 70 85
4041 183 1,601 1,736 -142 -8 22 62 73 81 85
5246 193 1,641 1,914 -312 -16 0 8 40 77 88
Statement age 35
All 1,207 1,392 1,392 -72 -5 23 45 59 68 73
Sex
Women 463 946 1,072 -105 -9 17 32 44 55 62
Men 744 1,647 1,631 -49 -3 26 52 68 76 80
AIME quintile (dollars)
0 240 669 716 -1 0 13 25 34 44 47
1757 239 1,069 1,087 -25 -3 15 27 36 48 58
2671 234 1,372 1,391 20 2 18 32 54 66 76
3822 242 1,673 1,703 -37 -2 51 77 85 91 92
5107 252 1,751 1,899 -174 -9 16 62 86 92 93
Statement age 40
All 1,348 1,286 1,335 -37 -3 32 51 65 74 80
Sex
Women 575 915 1,025 -90 -8 20 38 52 65 72
Men 773 1,627 1,625 -9 -1 40 61 74 80 86
AIME quintile (dollars)
0 269 626 685 -38 -5 24 35 45 56 66
1533 267 951 1,025 -73 -7 17 33 50 62 74
2459 264 1,291 1,333 -36 -3 19 37 57 69 75
3562 271 1,656 1,678 -18 -1 38 65 77 85 88
4974 277 1,869 1,894 -28 -1 60 88 97 99 100
Statement age 45
All 1,478 1,247 1,270 -20 -2 43 64 77 85 89
Sex
Women 687 903 984 -51 -5 30 50 68 78 84
Men 791 1,621 1,620 -3 0 53 75 84 91 93
AIME quintile (dollars)
0 294 596 637 -26 -4 31 48 64 73 75
1305 296 925 974 -41 -4 28 47 63 78 87
2296 288 1,247 1,269 -13 -1 40 57 72 83 88
3348 298 1,650 1,646 -1 0 51 76 88 93 97
4885 302 1,873 1,885 -18 -1 64 92 97 98 98
Statement age 50
All 1,562 1,188 1,225 -32 -3 47 72 84 91 94
Sex
Women 759 891 946 -45 -5 35 59 75 84 90
Men 803 1,547 1,611 -21 -1 58 84 92 97 98
AIME quintile (dollars)
0 313 558 616 -36 -6 33 55 68 74 80
1199 314 869 927 -38 -5 37 63 80 92 95
2168 297 1,191 1,225 -30 -2 45 67 82 92 97
3228 319 1,589 1,630 -29 -2 53 79 90 97 99
4792 319 1,854 1,875 -20 -1 66 96 100 100 100
Statement age 55
All 1,613 1,169 1,196 -30 -3 53 76 87 92 94
Sex
Women 796 847 915 -45 -5 38 62 77 86 91
Men 817 1,550 1,600 -20 -1 66 89 95 97 98
AIME quintile (dollars)
0 321 493 585 -33 -6 38 54 64 73 79
1103 324 839 895 -33 -4 43 71 86 94 98
2081 308 1,170 1,196 -29 -2 48 75 88 94 97
3150 329 1,574 1,622 -28 -2 65 84 94 98 98
4746 331 1,827 1,871 -29 -2 69 97 100 100 100
SOURCE: Authors' calculations using MINT simulations.
NOTES: The inflated Statement PIA is the median estimated PIA calculated for eligible cohort members in the year they attain a given Statement age, adjusted for the growth of wages between the second year prior to the Statement age and the year cohort members reached age 60. The retirement PIA is the median PIA received at age 62 for the cohort. The AIME thresholds shown are the lowest values for the quintile.
PIA = primary insurance amount; AIME = average indexed monthly earnings; MINT = Modeling Income in the Near Term
a. Values in the difference columns are median differences, not the differences between the medians reported in the inflated Statement PIA and retirement PIA columns.
b. Data not shown due to small sample sizes.
Table 16B. Inflated Statement PIA compared with retirement PIA for 1945 birth cohort, by sex, AIME quintile, and Statement age
Beneficiary group Sample size PIA (dollars) Inflated Statement PIA difference a from retirement PIA Percent of individuals whose inflated Statement PIA is within various percentage points of retirement PIA
Inflated Statement Retirement Dollars Percent Within 5 percent Within 10 percent Within 15 percent Within 20 percent Within 25 percent
Statement age 25
All 29 1,185 1,381 -187 -12 13 20 40 63 67
Sex
Women b b b b b b b b b b
Men b b b b b b b b b b
AIME quintile
Lowest b b b b b b b b b b
Second b b b b b b b b b b
Third b b b b b b b b b b
Fourth b b b b b b b b b b
Highest b b b b b b b b b b
Statement age 30
All 913 1,452 1,584 -119 -7 17 37 53 62 68
Sex
Women 298 1,013 1,218 -178 -14 14 28 35 45 52
Men 615 1,667 1,731 -107 -6 19 42 61 70 76
AIME quintile (dollars)
0 174 782 776 92 15 9 16 20 29 36
2060 178 1,207 1,221 -22 -2 15 31 39 48 54
3149 188 1,456 1,584 -96 -6 20 43 58 72 80
4292 186 1,696 1,803 -117 -6 35 63 72 77 83
5386 187 1,778 1,993 -229 -11 7 34 75 85 89
Statement age 35
All 1,206 1,381 1,467 -54 -3 28 48 60 67 75
Sex
Women 508 1,006 1,152 -98 -8 20 37 46 54 63
Men 698 1,723 1,722 -31 -2 34 55 69 77 83
AIME quintile (dollars)
0 234 695 731 -1 0 17 29 38 43 52
1676 229 1,071 1,120 -45 -4 17 31 42 51 62
2768 253 1,392 1,467 -54 -4 18 37 52 65 75
3919 242 1,732 1,773 -46 -3 41 63 74 83 88
5266 248 1,884 1,969 -93 -5 49 79 93 95 96
Statement age 40
All 1,358 1,304 1,372 -44 -4 32 54 67 75 80
Sex
Women 636 945 1,063 -77 -7 24 41 54 63 71
Men 722 1,706 1,718 -23 -2 39 65 78 85 88
AIME quintile (dollars)
0 265 611 669 -32 -5 24 39 51 58 65
1503 259 954 1,038 -67 -6 22 38 53 65 74
2557 282 1,321 1,372 -48 -4 23 44 60 70 76
3761 273 1,713 1,740 -33 -2 38 61 75 86 90
5138 279 1,914 1,960 -54 -3 53 89 95 95 97
Statement age 45
All 1,471 1,259 1,319 -49 -3 39 63 77 85 89
Sex
Women 734 947 1,018 -63 -6 30 51 69 80 85
Men 737 1,697 1,711 -37 -1 48 74 85 90 93
AIME quintile (dollars)
0 285 589 639 -42 -6 29 45 59 68 74
1312 282 919 978 -57 -7 26 51 70 83 89
2389 304 1,267 1,319 -46 -2 32 56 73 83 89
3579 298 1,697 1,719 -59 -1 46 71 85 92 95
5053 302 1,919 1,951 -44 -2 64 91 98 99 99
Statement age 50
All 1,545 1,218 1,275 -45 -4 45 70 84 91 94
Sex
Women 798 901 978 -51 -5 34 58 76 86 92
Men 747 1,639 1,708 -38 -3 57 81 92 95 97
AIME quintile (dollars)
0 305 521 619 -40 -7 36 51 67 74 83
1171 297 873 926 -49 -5 35 60 82 91 94
2226 314 1,220 1,275 -53 -4 38 66 82 94 96
3455 312 1,652 1,708 -39 -2 52 76 89 95 99
4946 317 1,909 1,946 -36 -2 65 93 100 100 100
Statement age 55
All 1,608 1,180 1,247 -51 -4 46 71 83 90 94
Sex
Women 841 884 940 -54 -6 37 59 76 86 92
Men 767 1,600 1,687 -47 -3 56 83 91 94 96
AIME quintile (dollars)
0 313 460 589 -46 -9 36 49 61 70 78
1094 311 843 894 -50 -6 37 64 85 93 96
2113 327 1,189 1,247 -58 -5 39 70 84 92 96
3318 328 1,602 1,687 -51 -3 55 76 88 94 98
4880 329 1,873 1,943 -54 -3 64 95 100 100 100
SOURCE: Authors' calculations using MINT simulations.
NOTES: The inflated Statement PIA is the median estimated PIA calculated for eligible cohort members in the year they attain a given Statement age, adjusted for the growth of wages between the second year prior to the Statement age and the year cohort members reached age 60. The retirement PIA is the median PIA received at age 62 for the cohort. The AIME thresholds shown are the lowest values for the quintile.
PIA = primary insurance amount; AIME = average indexed monthly earnings; MINT = Modeling Income in the Near Term
a. Values in the difference columns are median differences, not the differences between the medians reported in the inflated Statement PIA and retirement PIA columns.
b. Data not shown due to small sample sizes.
Table 17B. Inflated Statement PIA compared with retirement PIA for 1946 birth cohort, by sex, AIME quintile, and Statement age
Beneficiary group Sample size PIA (dollars) Inflated Statement PIA difference a from retirement PIA Percent of individuals whose inflated Statement PIA is within various percentage points of retirement PIA
Inflated Statement Retirement Dollars Percent Within 5 percent Within 10 percent Within 15 percent Within 20 percent Within 25 percent
Statement age 25
All 29 1,397 1,816 -196 -18 6 24 27 49 64
Sex
Women b b b b b b b b b b
Men b b b b b b b b b b
AIME quintile
Lowest b b b b b b b b b b
Second b b b b b b b b b b
Third b b b b b b b b b b
Fourth b b b b b b b b b b
Highest b b b b b b b b b b
Statement age 30
All 1,221 1,463 1,656 -166 -10 15 32 49 60 67
Sex
Women 441 1,100 1,266 -186 -14 10 21 33 44 53
Men 780 1,687 1,819 -161 -8 18 38 58 67 74
AIME quintile (dollars)
0 241 919 873 103 12 8 17 24 33 42
2127 248 1,193 1,285 -102 -7 14 26 38 50 56
3303 245 1,472 1,654 -142 -9 20 39 53 63 73
4561 235 1,743 1,887 -181 -9 32 53 66 72 78
5801 252 1,842 2,101 -270 -13 2 28 66 81 87
Statement age 35
All 1,576 1,482 1,559 -66 -4 26 47 60 69 75
Sex
Women 683 1,014 1,225 -130 -11 16 33 44 57 63
Men 893 1,789 1,815 -33 -2 32 58 71 78 83
AIME quintile (dollars)
0 313 722 796 -25 -4 15 29 41 52 59
1862 315 1,120 1,185 -53 -4 17 33 44 52 59
3010 314 1,501 1,559 -48 -3 20 39 52 66 74
4255 309 1,812 1,864 -66 -4 35 60 74 81 86
5654 325 1,983 2,087 -132 -6 42 76 90 94 97
Statement age 40
All 1,795 1,388 1,471 -70 -5 31 51 65 74 80
Sex
Women 868 980 1,140 -120 -11 20 37 49 63 71
Men 927 1,766 1,808 -33 -2 40 63 78 84 88
AIME quintile (dollars)
0 357 645 743 -62 -10 23 37 50 61 67
1649 362 998 1,101 -103 -10 17 30 44 58 70
2751 361 1,405 1,470 -71 -5 23 45 58 70 78
4027 349 1,777 1,830 -58 -3 39 61 74 83 88
5480 366 2,017 2,070 -66 -3 52 83 97 99 99
Statement age 45
All 1,937 1,339 1,421 -56 -4 35 60 76 84 90
Sex
Women 990 986 1,084 -83 -7 25 47 65 76 85
Men 947 1,762 1,806 -35 -2 46 73 86 92 94
AIME quintile (dollars)
0 387 652 714 -41 -6 26 45 61 71 77
1496 392 985 1,059 -79 -8 24 45 65 77 83
2584 389 1,327 1,421 -80 -5 29 52 72 81 92
3874 376 1,766 1,815 -58 -3 48 70 82 93 97
5381 393 2,020 2,062 -36 -2 51 89 99 99 100
Statement age 50
All 2,010 1,298 1,397 -63 -5 41 65 80 89 93
Sex
Women 1,050 968 1,059 -74 -7 31 54 71 84 90
Men 960 1,723 1,797 -54 -3 50 77 89 94 96
AIME quintile (dollars)
0 402 641 688 -44 -6 35 54 67 76 81
1430 407 950 1,028 -70 -7 34 54 73 85 92
2505 402 1,305 1,397 -79 -6 32 59 76 89 95
3799 392 1,739 1,806 -68 -4 48 70 87 95 97
5338 407 2,016 2,058 -50 -2 54 90 98 99 100
Statement age 55
All 2,070 1,270 1,359 -63 -5 42 66 81 88 93
Sex
Women 1,098 939 1,034 -75 -7 31 54 71 83 90
Men 972 1,716 1,789 -53 -3 53 79 90 94 96
AIME quintile (dollars)
0 416 589 654 -46 -7 36 53 64 72 78
1321 415 919 993 -66 -7 33 56 74 85 92
2397 413 1,270 1,357 -86 -6 37 62 79 91 96
3704 406 1,723 1,792 -69 -4 47 72 86 94 98
5300 420 1,996 2,052 -50 -2 58 89 99 99 100
SOURCE: Authors' calculations using MINT simulations.
NOTES: The inflated Statement PIA is the median estimated PIA calculated for eligible cohort members in the year they attain a given Statement age, adjusted for the growth of wages between the second year prior to the Statement age and the year cohort members reached age 60. The retirement PIA is the median PIA received at age 62 for the cohort. The AIME thresholds shown are the lowest values for the quintile.
PIA = primary insurance amount; AIME = average indexed monthly earnings; MINT = Modeling Income in the Near Term
a. Values in the difference columns are median differences, not the differences between the medians reported in the inflated Statement PIA and retirement PIA columns.
b. Data not shown due to small sample sizes.