Estimated Retirement Benefits in the Social Security Statement

by Glenn R. Springstead, David A. Weaver, and Jason J. Fichtner
Research and Statistics Note No. 2008-05 (released November 2008)

Tables 1C–8C

Table 1C. Statement PIA compared with deflated retirement PIA by Statement age, 1940–1943 birth cohorts
Statement age Sample size PIA (dollars) Statement PIA difference a from deflated retirement PIA Percent of individuals whose Statement PIA is within various percentage points of deflated retirement PIA
Statement Deflated retirement Dollars Percent Within 5 percent Within 10 percent Within 15 percent Within 20 percent Within 25 percent
25 138 174 213 -39 -17 8 17 22 37 45
30 3,283 251 258 -26 -10 14 30 46 61 70
35 4,386 334 332 -14 -4 25 47 59 67 73
40 5,120 452 447 0 0 34 53 64 72 78
45 5,566 577 577 0 0 42 63 74 82 87
50 5,916 695 698 0 0 54 76 86 91 94
55 6,132 799 809 -2 0 65 85 92 95 97
SOURCE: Authors' calculations using MINT simulations.
NOTES: The Statement PIA is the median estimated PIA calculated for eligible cohort members in the year they attain a given Statement age. The deflated retirement PIA is the median PIA received at age 62 for the cohort, reduced by the growth of wages between the second year prior to the Statement age and the year cohort members reached age 60.
PIA = primary insurance amount; MINT = Modeling Income in the Near Term.
a. Values in the difference columns are median differences, not the differences between the medians reported in the Statement and deflated retirement PIA columns.
Table 2C. Statement PIA compared with deflated retirement PIA at Statement age 25, by sex and AIME quintile, 1940–1943 birth cohorts
Beneficiary group Sample size PIA (dollars) Statement PIA difference a from deflated retirement PIA Percent of individuals whose Statement PIA is within various percentage points of deflated retirement PIA
Statement Deflated retirement Dollars Percent Within 5 percent Within 10 percent Within 15 percent Within 20 percent Within 25 percent
1940–1943 birth cohorts
All 138 174 213 -39 -17 8 17 22 37 45
Sex
Women 22 130 124 21 18 3 7 7 20 24
Men 116 174 218 -42 -18 9 19 25 40 49
AIME quintile
Lowest 24 125 106 39 41 8 12 12 17 21
Second 29 175 156 1 1 24 34 38 41 53
Third 30 175 211 -36 -17 9 20 34 70 77
Fourth 28 174 237 -60 -26 0 20 20 31 49
Highest 27 174 251 -70 -28 0 0 6 25 25
Women
All 22 130 124 21 18 3 7 7 20 24
AIME quintile
Lowest b b b b b b b b b b
Second b b b b b b b b b b
Third b b b b b b b b b b
Fourth b b b b b b b b b b
Highest b b b b b b b b b b
Men
All 116 174 218 -42 -18 9 19 25 40 49
AIME quintile
Lowest 13 124 98 38 44 12 12 12 12 20
Second 21 176 173 2 1 32 45 50 50 62
Third 27 175 211 -35 -17 10 22 37 74 82
Fourth 28 174 237 -60 -26 0 20 20 31 49
Highest 27 174 251 -70 -28 0 0 6 25 25
Zero earners
All b b b b b b b b b b
Sex
Women b b b b b b b b b b
Men b b b b b b b b b b
SOURCE: Authors' calculations using MINT simulations.
NOTES: The Statement PIA is the median estimated PIA calculated for eligible cohort members in the year they attain a given Statement age. The deflated retirement PIA is the median PIA received at age 62 for the cohort, reduced by the growth of wages between the second year prior to the Statement age and the year cohort members reached age 60. Zero Earners are those with zero earnings in the 2 years prior to the Statement year.
PIA = primary insurance amount; AIME = average indexed monthly earnings; MINT = Modeling Income in the Near Term.
a. Values in the difference columns are median differences, not the differences between the medians reported in the Statement and deflated retirement PIA columns.
b. Data not shown due to small sample sizes.
Table 3C. Statement PIA compared with deflated retirement PIA at Statement age 30, by sex and AIME quintile, 1940–1943 birth cohorts
Beneficiary group Sample size PIA (dollars) Statement PIA difference a from deflated retirement PIA Percent of individuals whose Statement PIA is within various percentage points of deflated retirement PIA
Statement Deflated retirement Dollars Percent Within 5 percent Within 10 percent Within 15 percent Within 20 percent Within 25 percent
1940–1943 birth cohorts
All 3,283 251 258 -26 -10 14 30 46 61 70
Sex
Women 896 164 180 -22 -11 11 23 35 44 52
Men 2,387 259 280 -27 -10 15 32 50 67 77
AIME quintile
Lowest 630 139 128 21 17 8 15 23 30 38
Second 655 203 200 6 3 13 26 37 47 55
Third 649 253 258 -7 -3 35 55 69 78 83
Fourth 665 261 299 -31 -10 12 48 71 79 84
Highest 684 269 329 -57 -17 0 3 29 72 90
Women
All 896 164 180 -22 -11 11 23 35 44 52
AIME quintile
Lowest 361 126 124 3 3 9 17 25 33 41
Second 278 170 191 -21 -11 12 27 41 49 56
Third 142 212 256 -40 -16 18 32 46 59 63
Fourth 79 242 296 -60 -20 5 28 40 49 58
Highest 36 269 325 -59 -18 0 0 27 65 82
Men
All 2,387 259 280 -27 -10 15 32 50 67 77
AIME quintile
Lowest 269 165 133 39 31 7 13 20 27 35
Second 377 234 204 25 12 13 25 35 46 54
Third 507 258 258 -3 -1 40 61 76 83 89
Fourth 586 264 299 -30 -10 13 51 75 83 87
Highest 648 269 330 -57 -17 0 3 29 72 91
Zero earners
All 101 66 137 -70 -51 11 17 19 21 25
Sex
Women 73 67 124 -64 -47 12 20 21 23 27
Men 28 66 186 -116 -59 6 10 13 16 21
SOURCE: Authors' calculations using MINT simulations.
NOTES: The Statement PIA is the median estimated PIA calculated for eligible cohort members in the year they attain a given Statement age. The deflated retirement PIA is the median PIA received at age 62 for the cohort, reduced by the growth of wages between the second year prior to the Statement age and the year cohort members reached age 60. Zero Earners are those with zero earnings in the 2 years prior to the Statement year.
PIA = primary insurance amount; AIME = average indexed monthly earnings; MINT = Modeling Income in the Near Term.
a. Values in the difference columns are median differences, not the differences between the medians reported in the Statement and deflated retirement PIA columns.
Table 4C. Statement PIA compared with deflated retirement PIA at Statement age 35, by sex and AIME quintile, 1940–1943 birth cohorts
Beneficiary group Sample size PIA (dollars) Statement PIA difference a from deflated retirement PIA Percent of individuals whose Statement PIA is within various percentage points of deflated retirement PIA
Statement Deflated retirement Dollars Percent Within 5 percent Within 10 percent Within 15 percent Within 20 percent Within 25 percent
1940–1943 birth cohorts
All 4,386 334 332 -14 -4 25 47 59 67 73
Sex
Women 1,641 209 241 -24 -9 17 30 41 50 59
Men 2,745 380 382 -8 -2 30 57 70 76 81
AIME quintile
Lowest 848 159 166 0 0 14 25 35 45 53
Second 878 246 250 -5 -2 14 26 36 45 53
Third 872 332 332 2 1 17 33 50 62 71
Fourth 881 385 402 -5 -1 57 76 83 87 91
Highest 907 425 455 -37 -8 23 76 92 95 96
Women
All 1,641 209 241 -24 -9 17 30 41 50 59
AIME quintile
Lowest 577 152 164 -3 -2 12 23 33 44 54
Second 517 212 245 -36 -15 16 28 36 45 53
Third 324 279 328 -45 -13 18 31 47 55 63
Fourth 160 356 404 -41 -10 32 51 61 67 75
Highest 63 412 464 -40 -9 23 63 82 89 89
Men
All 2,745 380 382 -8 -2 30 57 70 76 81
AIME quintile
Lowest 271 184 172 5 4 19 28 39 47 53
Second 361 289 259 33 13 12 24 35 45 54
Third 548 362 336 26 8 17 34 51 66 76
Fourth 721 392 402 -2 0 62 82 88 92 94
Highest 844 425 455 -36 -8 23 77 93 95 97
Zero earners
All 334 109 171 -60 -35 18 25 31 36 43
Sex
Women 241 108 172 -63 -37 14 23 27 32 40
Men 93 120 166 -42 -27 29 32 40 46 49
SOURCE: Authors' calculations using MINT simulations.
NOTES: The Statement PIA is the median estimated PIA calculated for eligible cohort members in the year they attain a given Statement age. The deflated retirement PIA is the median PIA received at age 62 for the cohort, reduced by the growth of wages between the second year prior to the Statement age and the year cohort members reached age 60. Zero Earners are those with zero earnings in the 2 years prior to the Statement year.
PIA = primary insurance amount; AIME = average indexed monthly earnings; MINT = Modeling Income in the Near Term.
a. Values in the difference columns are median differences, not the differences between the medians reported in the Statement and deflated retirement PIA columns.
Table 5C. Statement PIA compared with deflated retirement PIA at Statement age 40, by sex and AIME quintile, 1940–1943 birth cohorts
Beneficiary group Sample size PIA (dollars) Statement PIA difference a from deflated retirement PIA Percent of individuals whose Statement PIA is within various percentage points of deflated retirement PIA
Statement Deflated retirement Dollars Percent Within 5 percent Within 10 percent Within 15 percent Within 20 percent Within 25 percent
1940–1943 birth cohorts
All 5,120 452 447 0 0 34 53 64 72 78
Sex
Women 2,282 308 327 -11 -3 25 40 51 62 70
Men 2,838 561 541 8 1 42 63 73 80 85
AIME quintile
Lowest 1,008 209 222 0 0 24 35 47 57 64
Second 1,017 327 332 -5 -1 19 34 43 55 64
Third 1,018 455 446 3 1 22 38 51 63 74
Fourth 1,024 566 566 13 2 39 65 80 88 92
Highest 1,053 650 657 -3 0 68 93 97 97 98
Women
All 2,282 308 327 -11 -3 25 40 51 62 70
AIME quintile
Lowest 783 208 219 0 0 21 33 44 55 62
Second 701 311 331 -15 -4 20 35 46 57 65
Third 475 414 443 -22 -5 24 41 53 67 76
Fourth 237 522 566 -20 -4 39 57 70 77 85
Highest 86 642 674 -12 -2 64 86 94 94 95
Men
All 2,838 561 541 8 1 42 63 73 80 85
AIME quintile
Lowest 225 212 225 0 0 34 43 55 62 68
Second 316 360 334 24 7 17 31 38 52 61
Third 543 484 451 30 7 20 36 49 60 72
Fourth 787 574 565 20 4 39 67 83 91 94
Highest 967 651 655 -2 0 69 94 97 97 98
Zero earners
All 478 163 237 -53 -23 27 32 40 46 53
Sex
Women 310 147 232 -58 -26 22 28 37 42 49
Men 168 202 258 -37 -19 35 40 46 52 60
SOURCE: Authors' calculations using MINT simulations.
NOTES: The Statement PIA is the median estimated PIA calculated for eligible cohort members in the year they attain a given Statement age. The deflated retirement PIA is the median PIA received at age 62 for the cohort, reduced by the growth of wages between the second year prior to the Statement age and the year cohort members reached age 60. Zero Earners are those with zero earnings in the 2 years prior to the Statement year.
PIA = primary insurance amount; AIME = average indexed monthly earnings; MINT = Modeling Income in the Near Term.
a. Values in the difference columns are median differences, not the differences between the medians reported in the Statement and deflated retirement PIA columns.
Table 6C. Statement PIA compared with deflated retirement PIA at Statement age 45, by sex and AIME quintile, 1940–1943 birth cohorts
Beneficiary group Sample size PIA (dollars) Statement PIA difference a from deflated retirement PIA Percent of individuals whose Statement PIA is within various percentage points of deflated retirement PIA
Statement Deflated retirement Dollars Percent Within 5 percent Within 10 percent Within 15 percent Within 20 percent Within 25 percent
1940–1943 birth cohorts
All 5,566 577 577 0 0 42 63 74 82 87
Sex
Women 2,679 405 428 -10 -2 31 50 63 74 81
Men 2,887 774 752 8 1 52 74 84 90 93
AIME quintile
Lowest 1,099 265 291 -3 -1 32 44 55 64 70
Second 1,111 405 425 -13 -3 29 51 63 75 84
Third 1,106 574 577 0 0 31 53 67 79 86
Fourth 1,108 772 752 12 2 48 72 87 94 97
Highest 1,142 888 876 14 2 72 94 99 99 100
Women
All 2,679 405 428 -10 -2 31 50 63 74 81
AIME quintile
Lowest 890 264 289 -3 -1 28 41 52 62 68
Second 822 402 425 -19 -5 25 46 60 74 83
Third 581 556 569 -12 -2 33 54 67 80 86
Fourth 287 736 741 -7 -1 44 65 83 91 95
Highest 99 877 871 2 0 75 92 99 99 99
Men
All 2,887 774 752 8 1 52 74 84 90 93
AIME quintile
Lowest 209 272 295 -3 -1 49 54 63 71 76
Second 289 417 424 -7 -2 41 63 70 78 87
Third 525 597 587 12 2 29 51 67 78 85
Fourth 821 780 757 17 2 49 74 88 95 98
Highest 1,043 890 877 16 2 71 95 99 99 100
Zero earners
All 576 258 311 -33 -11 41 49 57 65 72
Sex
Women 333 211 290 -40 -14 36 44 52 60 66
Men 243 307 354 -23 -7 47 56 64 71 79
SOURCE: Authors' calculations using MINT simulations.
NOTES: The Statement PIA is the median estimated PIA calculated for eligible cohort members in the year they attain a given Statement age. The deflated retirement PIA is the median PIA received at age 62 for the cohort, reduced by the growth of wages between the second year prior to the Statement age and the year cohort members reached age 60. Zero Earners are those with zero earnings in the 2 years prior to the Statement year.
PIA = primary insurance amount; AIME = average indexed monthly earnings; MINT = Modeling Income in the Near Term.
a. Values in the difference columns are median differences, not the differences between the medians reported in the Statement and deflated retirement PIA columns.
Table 7C. Statement PIA compared with deflated retirement PIA at Statement age 50, by sex and AIME quintile, 1940–1943 birth cohorts
Beneficiary group Sample size PIA (dollars) Statement PIA difference a from deflated retirement PIA Percent of individuals whose Statement PIA is within various percentage points of deflated retirement PIA
Statement Deflated retirement Dollars Percent Within 5 percent Within 10 percent Within 15 percent Within 20 percent Within 25 percent
1940–1943 birth cohorts
All 5,916 695 698 0 0 54 76 86 91 94
Sex
Women 2,979 502 516 -3 -1 44 65 79 86 91
Men 2,937 947 939 2 0 65 86 93 96 97
AIME quintile
Lowest 1,189 329 344 -1 0 41 56 67 75 82
Second 1,159 493 508 -7 -1 43 67 82 89 94
Third 1,184 693 698 -3 0 47 72 87 93 96
Fourth 1,177 937 930 6 1 63 86 95 98 99
Highest 1,207 1,103 1,092 13 1 78 97 99 100 100
Women
All 2,979 502 549 -3 -1 44 65 79 86 91
AIME quintile
Lowest 986 331 341 -1 0 39 55 67 74 81
Second 883 491 505 -9 -2 39 65 81 89 94
Third 677 677 686 -3 -1 45 69 85 92 96
Fourth 324 918 920 2 0 58 81 94 98 99
Highest 109 1,084 1,089 9 1 76 97 99 99 100
Men
All 2,937 947 939 2 0 65 86 93 96 97
AIME quintile
Lowest 203 322 352 -1 0 53 61 69 80 86
Second 276 503 511 -6 -1 55 76 84 88 91
Third 507 707 710 -2 0 49 76 89 94 97
Fourth 853 942 935 7 1 64 88 96 98 99
Highest 1,098 1,105 1,092 13 1 78 97 99 100 100
Zero earners
All 630 337 371 -8 -3 58 68 76 82 86
Sex
Women 372 274 333 -8 -3 56 66 75 80 84
Men 258 398 437 -9 -2 60 70 79 85 89
SOURCE: Authors' calculations using MINT simulations.
NOTES: The Statement PIA is the median estimated PIA calculated for eligible cohort members in the year they attain a given Statement age. The deflated retirement PIA is the median PIA received at age 62 for the cohort, reduced by the growth of wages between the second year prior to the Statement age and the year cohort members reached age 60. Zero Earners are those with zero earnings in the 2 years prior to the Statement year.
PIA = primary insurance amount; AIME = average indexed monthly earnings; MINT = Modeling Income in the Near Term.
a. Values in the difference columns are median differences, not the differences between the medians reported in the Statement and deflated retirement PIA columns.
Table 8C. Statement PIA compared with deflated retirement PIA at Statement age 55, by sex and AIME quintile, 1940–1943 birth cohorts
Beneficiary group Sample size PIA (dollars) Statement PIA difference a from deflated retirement PIA Percent of individuals whose Statement PIA is within various percentage points of deflated retirement PIA
Statement Deflated retirement Dollars Percent Within 5 percent Within 10 percent Within 15 percent Within 20 percent Within 25 percent
1940–1943 birth cohorts
All 6,132 799 809 -2 0 65 85 92 95 97
Sex
Women 3,160 579 593 -6 -1 53 77 87 92 95
Men 2,972 1,111 1,110 0 0 77 93 97 98 98
AIME quintile
Lowest 1,241 348 392 -3 -1 52 66 75 83 87
Second 1,199 566 579 -9 -2 55 81 92 96 98
Third 1,222 799 809 -5 -1 60 84 93 97 99
Fourth 1,220 1,094 1,092 0 0 75 92 98 99 100
Highest 1,250 1,291 1,286 7 1 84 99 100 100 100
Women
All 3,160 579 593 -6 -1 53 77 87 92 95
AIME quintile
Lowest 1,039 346 389 -4 -1 51 66 74 83 87
Second 928 563 577 -10 -2 52 80 92 97 99
Third 723 789 789 -4 -1 53 80 92 97 98
Fourth 353 1,061 1,067 -3 0 59 86 95 99 99
Highest 117 1,279 1,281 12 1 79 97 99 99 100
Men
All 2,972 1,111 1,110 0 0 77 93 97 98 98
AIME quintile
Lowest 202 377 404 -1 0 57 68 79 83 86
Second 271 574 587 -6 -1 65 85 92 94 95
Third 499 813 826 -5 -1 69 89 96 97 99
Fourth 867 1,102 1,099 0 0 81 95 99 100 100
Highest 1,133 1,294 1,288 7 1 85 100 100 100 100
Zero earners
All 855 421 437 0 0 74 82 86 90 91
Sex
Women 537 347 392 0 0 73 80 84 88 90
Men 318 534 552 0 0 75 85 89 92 94
SOURCE: Authors' calculations using MINT simulations.
NOTES: The Statement PIA is the median estimated PIA calculated for eligible cohort members in the year they attain a given Statement age. The deflated retirement PIA is the median PIA received at age 62 for the cohort, reduced by the growth of wages between the second year prior to the Statement age and the year cohort members reached age 60. Zero Earners are those with zero earnings in the 2 years prior to the Statement year.
PIA = primary insurance amount; AIME = average indexed monthly earnings; MINT = Modeling Income in the Near Term.
a. Values in the difference columns are median differences, not the differences between the medians reported in the Statement and deflated retirement PIA columns.