Estimated Retirement Benefits in the Social Security Statement

by Glenn R. Springstead, David A. Weaver, and Jason J. Fichtner
Research and Statistics Note No. 2008-05 (released November 2008)

Tables 1D–8D

Table 1D. Inflated Statement PIA compared with retirement PIA, by Statement age, 1940–1943 birth cohorts
Statement age Sample size PIA (dollars) Inflated Statement PIA difference a from retirement PIA Percent of individuals whose inflated Statement PIA is within various percentage points of retirement PIA
Inflated Statement Retirement Dollars Percent Within 5 percent Within 10 percent Within 15 percent Within 20 percent Within 25 percent
25 138 1,218 1,535 -284 -17 8 17 22 37 45
30 3,283 1,373 1,414 -140 -10 14 30 46 61 70
35 4,386 1,305 1,307 -55 -4 25 47 59 67 73
40 5,120 1,225 1,217 0 0 34 53 64 72 78
45 5,566 1,167 1,161 0 0 42 63 74 82 87
50 5,916 1,113 1,120 0 0 54 76 86 91 94
55 6,132 1,083 1,093 -3 0 65 85 92 95 97
SOURCE: Authors' calculations using MINT simulations.
NOTES: The inflated Statement PIA is the median estimated PIA calculated for eligible cohort members in the year they attain a given Statement age, adjusted for the growth of wages between the second year prior to the Statement age and the year cohort members reached age 60. The retirement PIA is the median PIA received at age 62 for the cohort.
PIA = primary insurance amount; MINT = Modeling Income in the Near Term.
a. Values in the difference columns are median differences, not the differences between the medians reported in the inflated Statement PIA and retirement PIA columns.
Table 2D. Inflated Statement PIA compared with retirement PIA at Statement age 25, by sex and AIME quintile, 1940–1943 birth cohorts
Beneficiary group Sample size PIA (dollars) Inflated Statement PIA difference a from retirement PIA Percent of individuals whose inflated Statement PIA is within various percentage points of retirement PIA
Inflated Statement Retirement Dollars Percent Within 5 percent Within 10 percent Within 15 percent Within 20 percent Within 25 percent
1940–1943 birth cohorts
All 138 1,218 1,535 -284 -17 8 17 22 37 45
Sex
Women 22 928 875 151 18 3 7 7 20 24
Men 116 1,263 1,590 -300 -18 9 19 25 40 49
AIME quintile (dollars)
0 24 902 747 283 41 8 12 12 17 21
1755 29 1,263 1,140 7 1 24 34 38 41 53
3198 30 1,263 1,533 -257 -17 9 20 34 70 77
4171 28 1,230 1,676 -433 -26 0 20 20 31 49
5189 27 1,269 1,793 -501 -28 0 0 6 25 25
Women
All 22 928 875 151 18 3 7 7 20 24
AIME quintile
Lowest b b b b b b b b b b
Second b b b b b b b b b b
Third b b b b b b b b b b
Fourth b b b b b b b b b b
Highest b b b b b b b b b b
Men
All 116 1,263 1,590 -300 -18 9 19 25 40 49
AIME quintile (dollars)
0 13 859 701 261 44 12 12 12 12 20
1755 21 1,263 1,209 11 1 32 45 50 50 62
3198 27 1,263 1,533 -257 -17 10 22 37 74 82
4171 28 1,230 1,676 -433 -26 0 20 20 31 49
5189 27 1,269 1,793 -501 -28 0 0 6 25 25
Zero earners
All b b b b b b b b b b
Sex
Women b b b b b b b b b b
Men b b b b b b b b b b
SOURCE: Authors' calculations using MINT simulations.
NOTES: The inflated Statement PIA is the median estimated PIA calculated for eligible cohort members in the year they attain a given Statement age, adjusted for the growth of wages between the second year prior to the Statement age and the year cohort members reached age 60. The retirement PIA is the median PIA received at age 62 for the cohort. The AIME thresholds shown are the lowest values for the quintile. Zero Earners are those with zero earnings in the 2 years prior to the Statement year.
PIA = primary insurance amount; AIME = average indexed monthly earnings; MINT = Modeling Income in the Near Term.
a. Values in the difference columns are median differences, not the differences between the medians reported in the inflated Statement PIA and retirement PIA columns.
b. Data not shown due to small sample sizes.
Table 3D. Inflated Statement PIA compared with retirement PIA at Statement age 30, by sex and AIME quintile, 1940–1943 birth cohorts
Beneficiary group Sample size PIA (dollars) Inflated Statement PIA difference a from retirement PIA Percent of individuals whose inflated Statement PIA is within various percentage points of retirement PIA
Inflated Statement Retirement Dollars Percent Within 5 percent Within 10 percent Within 15 percent Within 20 percent Within 25 percent
1940–1943 birth cohorts
All 3,283 1,373 1,414 -140 -10 14 30 46 61 70
Sex
Women 896 902 982 -116 -11 11 23 35 44 52
Men 2,387 1,455 1,548 -147 -10 15 32 50 67 77
AIME quintile (dollars)
0 630 762 704 110 17 8 15 23 30 38
1743 655 1,109 1,090 34 3 13 26 37 47 55
2805 649 1,395 1,414 -39 -3 35 55 69 78 83
3822 665 1,466 1,623 -169 -10 12 48 71 79 84
4824 684 1,486 1,786 -310 -17 0 3 29 72 90
Women
All 896 902 982 -116 -11 11 23 35 44 52
AIME quintile (dollars)
0 361 684 690 18 3 9 17 25 33 41
1743 278 949 1,057 -113 -11 12 27 41 49 56
2805 142 1,169 1,389 -223 -16 18 32 46 59 63
3822 79 1,296 1,609 -319 -20 5 28 40 49 58
4824 36 1,464 1,755 -325 -18 0 0 27 65 82
Men
All 2,387 1,455 1,548 -147 -10 15 32 50 67 77
AIME quintile (dollars)
0 269 920 726 206 31 7 13 20 27 35
1743 377 1,259 1,112 132 12 13 25 35 46 54
2805 507 1,438 1,425 -17 -1 40 61 76 83 89
3822 586 1,469 1,625 -163 -10 13 51 75 83 87
4824 648 1,488 1,787 -310 -17 0 3 29 72 91
Zero earners
All 101 354 741 -383 -51 11 17 19 21 25
Sex
Women 73 359 676 -370 -47 12 20 21 23 27
Men 28 354 997 -621 -59 6 10 13 16 21
SOURCE: Authors' calculations using MINT simulations.
NOTES: The inflated Statement PIA is the median estimated PIA calculated for eligible cohort members in the year they attain a given Statement age, adjusted for the growth of wages between the second year prior to the Statement age and the year cohort members reached age 60. The retirement PIA is the median PIA received at age 62 for the cohort. The AIME thresholds shown are the lowest values for the quintile. Zero Earners are those with zero earnings in the 2 years prior to the Statement year.
PIA = primary insurance amount; AIME = average indexed monthly earnings; MINT = Modeling Income in the Near Term.
a. Values in the difference columns are median differences, not the differences between the medians reported in the inflated Statement PIA and retirement PIA columns.
Table 4D. Inflated Statement PIA compared with retirement PIA at Statement age 35, by sex and AIME quintile, 1940–1943 birth cohorts
Beneficiary group Sample size PIA (dollars) Inflated Statement PIA difference a from retirement PIA Percent of individuals whose inflated Statement PIA is within various percentage points of retirement PIA
Inflated Statement Retirement Dollars Percent Within 5 percent Within 10 percent Within 15 percent Within 20 percent Within 25 percent
1940–1943 birth cohorts
All 4,386 1,305 1,307 -55 -4 25 47 59 67 73
Sex
Women 1,641 841 948 -95 -9 17 30 41 50 59
Men 2,745 1,569 1,542 -34 -2 30 57 70 76 81
AIME quintile (dollars)
0 848 620 662 0 0 14 25 35 45 53
1467 878 961 983 -20 -2 14 26 36 45 53
2480 872 1,304 1,307 9 1 17 33 50 62 71
3556 881 1,580 1,592 -21 -1 57 76 83 87 91
4679 907 1,653 1,772 -145 -8 23 76 92 95 96
Women
All 1,641 841 948 -95 -9 17 30 41 50 59
AIME quintile (dollars)
0 577 593 648 -10 -2 12 23 33 44 54
1467 517 845 964 -143 -15 16 28 36 45 53
2480 324 1,109 1,278 -172 -13 18 31 47 55 63
3556 160 1,426 1,580 -157 -10 32 51 61 67 75
4679 63 1,612 1,755 -155 -9 23 63 82 89 89
Men
All 2,745 1,569 1,542 -34 -2 30 57 70 76 81
AIME quintile (dollars)
0 271 698 679 21 4 19 28 39 47 53
1467 361 1,151 1,018 141 13 12 24 35 45 54
2480 548 1,448 1,319 106 8 17 34 51 66 76
3556 721 1,593 1,595 -6 0 62 82 88 92 94
4679 844 1,655 1,773 -144 -8 23 77 93 95 97
Zero earners
All 334 441 675 -236 -35 18 25 31 36 43
Sex
Women 241 423 676 -250 -37 14 23 27 32 40
Men 93 470 660 -174 -27 29 32 40 46 49
SOURCE: Authors' calculations using MINT simulations.
NOTES: The inflated Statement PIA is the median estimated PIA calculated for eligible cohort members in the year they attain a given Statement age, adjusted for the growth of wages between the second year prior to the Statement age and the year cohort members reached age 60. The retirement PIA is the median PIA received at age 62 for the cohort. The AIME thresholds shown are the lowest values for the quintile. Zero Earners are those with zero earnings in the 2 years prior to the Statement year.
PIA = primary insurance amount; AIME = average indexed monthly earnings; MINT = Modeling Income in the Near Term.
a. Values in the difference columns are median differences, not the differences between the medians reported in the inflated Statement PIA and retirement PIA columns.
Table 5D. Inflated Statement PIA compared with retirement PIA at Statement age 40, by sex and AIME quintile, 1940–1943 birth cohorts
Beneficiary group Sample size PIA (dollars) Inflated Statement PIA difference a from retirement PIA Percent of individuals whose inflated Statement PIA is within various percentage points of retirement PIA
Inflated Statement Retirement Dollars Percent Within 5 percent Within 10 percent Within 15 percent Within 20 percent Within 25 percent
1940–1943 birth cohorts
All 5,120 1,225 1,217 0 0 34 53 64 72 78
Sex
Women 2,282 834 895 -29 -3 25 40 51 62 70
Men 2,838 1,589 1,537 21 1 42 63 73 80 85
AIME quintile (dollars)
0 1,008 582 612 -1 0 24 35 47 57 64
1280 1,017 887 904 -13 -1 19 34 43 55 64
2219 1,018 1,229 1,216 8 1 22 38 51 63 74
3271 1,024 1,588 1,559 35 2 39 65 80 88 92
4503 1,053 1,755 1,760 -9 0 68 93 97 97 98
Women
All 2,282 834 895 -29 -3 25 40 51 62 70
AIME quintile (dollars)
0 783 579 606 -1 0 21 33 44 55 62
1280 701 848 899 -41 -4 20 35 46 57 65
2219 475 1,130 1,193 -58 -5 24 41 53 67 76
3271 237 1,452 1,532 -58 -4 39 57 70 77 85
4503 86 1,707 1,728 -32 -2 64 86 94 94 95
Men
All 2,838 1,589 1,537 21 1 42 63 73 80 85
AIME quintile (dollars)
0 225 589 633 -1 0 34 43 55 62 68
1280 316 974 923 60 7 17 31 38 52 61
2219 543 1,310 1,235 85 7 20 36 49 60 72
3271 787 1,618 1,564 56 4 39 67 83 91 94
4503 967 1,757 1,763 -7 0 69 94 97 97 98
Zero earners
All 478 460 651 -149 -23 27 32 40 46 53
Sex
Women 310 396 620 -162 -26 22 28 37 42 49
Men 168 567 702 -105 -19 35 40 46 52 60
SOURCE: Authors' calculations using MINT simulations.
NOTES: The inflated Statement PIA is the median estimated PIA calculated for eligible cohort members in the year they attain a given Statement age, adjusted for the growth of wages between the second year prior to the Statement age and the year cohort members reached age 60. The retirement PIA is the median PIA received at age 62 for the cohort. The AIME thresholds shown are the lowest values for the quintile. Zero Earners are those with zero earnings in the 2 years prior to the Statement year.
PIA = primary insurance amount; AIME = average indexed monthly earnings; MINT = Modeling Income in the Near Term.
a. Values in the difference columns are median differences, not the differences between the medians reported in the inflated Statement PIA and retirement PIA columns.
Table 6D. Inflated Statement PIA compared with retirement PIA at Statement age 45, by sex and AIME quintile, 1940–1943 birth cohorts
Beneficiary group Sample size PIA (dollars) Inflated Statement PIA difference a from retirement PIA Percent of individuals whose inflated Statement PIA is within various percentage points of retirement PIA
Inflated Statement Retirement Dollars Percent Within 5 percent Within 10 percent Within 15 percent Within 20 percent Within 25 percent
1940–1943 birth cohorts
All 5,566 1,167 1,161 0 0 42 63 74 82 87
Sex
Women 2,679 812 861 -20 -2 31 50 63 74 81
Men 2,887 1,568 1,533 17 1 52 74 84 90 93
AIME quintile (dollars)
0 1,099 545 584 -6 -1 32 44 55 64 70
1139 1,111 813 855 -26 -3 29 51 63 75 84
2044 1,106 1,157 1,161 -1 0 31 53 67 79 86
3090 1,108 1,566 1,533 23 2 48 72 87 94 97
4409 1,142 1,783 1,750 29 2 72 94 99 99 100
Women
All 2,679 812 861 -20 -2 31 50 63 74 81
AIME quintile (dollars)
0 890 544 581 -6 -1 28 41 52 62 68
1139 822 804 855 -39 -5 25 46 60 74 83
2044 581 1,126 1,139 -24 -2 33 54 67 80 86
3090 287 1,492 1,505 -14 -1 44 65 83 91 95
4409 99 1,734 1,722 4 0 75 92 99 99 99
Men
All 2,887 1,568 1,533 17 1 52 74 84 90 93
AIME quintile (dollars)
0 209 552 598 -6 -1 49 54 63 71 76
1139 289 841 857 -15 -2 41 63 70 78 87
2044 525 1,211 1,185 24 2 29 51 67 78 85
3090 821 1,580 1,542 33 2 49 74 88 95 98
4409 1,043 1,786 1,753 32 2 71 95 99 99 100
Zero earners
All 576 516 623 -66 -11 41 49 57 65 72
Sex
Women 333 418 580 -79 -14 36 44 52 60 66
Men 243 620 703 -44 -7 47 56 64 71 79
SOURCE: Authors' calculations using MINT simulations.
NOTES: The inflated Statement PIA is the median estimated PIA calculated for eligible cohort members in the year they attain a given Statement age, adjusted for the growth of wages between the second year prior to the Statement age and the year cohort members reached age 60. The retirement PIA is the median PIA received at age 62 for the cohort. The AIME thresholds shown are the lowest values for the quintile. Zero Earners are those with zero earnings in the 2 years prior to the Statement year.
PIA = primary insurance amount; AIME = average indexed monthly earnings; MINT = Modeling Income in the Near Term.
a. Values in the difference columns are median differences, not the differences between the medians reported in the inflated Statement PIA and retirement PIA columns.
Table 7D. Inflated Statement PIA compared with retirement PIA at Statement age 50, by sex and AIME quintile, 1940–1943 birth cohorts
Beneficiary group Sample size PIA (dollars) Inflated Statement PIA difference a from retirement PIA Percent of individuals whose inflated Statement PIA is within various percentage points of retirement PIA
Inflated Statement Retirement Dollars Percent Within 5 percent Within 10 percent Within 15 percent Within 20 percent Within 25 percent
1940–1943 birth cohorts
All 5,916 1,113 1,120 0 0 54 76 86 91 94
Sex
Women 2,979 808 828 -5 -1 44 65 79 86 91
Men 2,937 1,535 1,525 3 0 65 86 93 96 97
AIME quintile (dollars)
0 1,189 533 560 -2 0 41 56 67 75 82
1048 1,159 794 810 -11 -1 43 67 82 89 94
1886 1,184 1,110 1,120 -5 0 47 72 87 93 96
2938 1,177 1,520 1,508 10 1 63 86 95 98 99
4322 1,207 1,766 1,745 21 1 78 97 99 100 100
Women
All 2,979 808 828 -5 -1 44 65 79 86 91
AIME quintile (dollars)
0 986 535 558 -2 0 39 55 67 74 81
1048 883 785 809 -14 -2 39 65 81 89 94
1886 677 1,089 1,100 -5 -1 45 69 85 92 96
2938 324 1,490 1,467 3 0 58 81 94 98 99
4322 109 1,727 1,711 15 1 76 97 99 99 100
Men
All 2,937 1,535 1,525 3 0 65 86 93 96 97
AIME quintile (dollars)
0 203 519 574 -2 0 53 61 69 80 86
1048 276 806 815 -10 -1 55 76 84 88 91
1886 507 1,133 1,137 -4 0 49 76 89 94 97
2938 853 1,527 1,519 12 1 64 88 96 98 99
4322 1,098 1,767 1,747 21 1 78 97 99 100 100
Zero earners
All 630 550 594 -14 -3 58 68 76 82 86
Sex
Women 372 432 543 -13 -3 56 66 75 80 84
Men 258 648 699 -15 -2 60 70 79 85 89
SOURCE: Authors' calculations using MINT simulations.
NOTES: The inflated Statement PIA is the median estimated PIA calculated for eligible cohort members in the year they attain a given Statement age, adjusted for the growth of wages between the second year prior to the Statement age and the year cohort members reached age 60. The retirement PIA is the median PIA received at age 62 for the cohort. The AIME thresholds shown are the lowest values for the quintile. Zero Earners are those with zero earnings in the 2 years prior to the Statement year.
PIA = primary insurance amount; AIME = average indexed monthly earnings; MINT = Modeling Income in the Near Term.
a. Values in the difference columns are median differences, not the differences between the medians reported in the inflated Statement PIA and retirement PIA columns.
Table 8D. Inflated Statement PIA compared with retirement PIA at Statement age 55, by sex and AIME quintile, 1940–1943 birth cohorts
Beneficiary group Sample size PIA (dollars) Inflated Statement PIA difference a from retirement PIA Percent of individuals whose inflated Statement PIA is within various percentage points of retirement PIA
Inflated Statement Retirement Dollars Percent Within 5 percent Within 10 percent Within 15 percent Within 20 percent Within 25 percent
1940–1943 birth cohorts
All 6,132 1,083 1,093 -3 0 65 85 92 95 97
Sex
Women 3,160 785 803 -8 -1 53 77 87 92 95
Men 2,972 1,521 1,519 0 0 77 93 97 98 98
AIME quintile (dollars)
0 1,241 472 535 -5 -1 52 66 75 83 87
973 1,199 768 788 -12 -2 55 81 92 96 98
1799 1,222 1,084 1,093 -6 -1 60 84 93 97 99
2857 1,220 1,496 1,491 0 0 75 92 98 99 100
4257 1,250 1,746 1,742 9 1 84 99 100 100 100
Women
All 3,160 785 803 -8 -1 53 77 87 92 95
AIME quintile (dollars)
0 1,039 468 529 -6 -1 51 66 74 83 87
973 928 765 783 -14 -2 52 80 92 97 99
1799 723 1,070 1,073 -6 -1 53 80 92 97 98
2857 353 1,436 1,441 -4 0 59 86 95 99 99
4257 117 1,725 1,707 16 1 79 97 99 99 100
Men
All 2,972 1,521 1,519 0 0 77 93 97 98 98
AIME quintile (dollars)
0 202 505 553 -2 0 57 68 79 83 86
973 271 778 797 -8 -1 65 85 92 94 95
1799 499 1,101 1,117 -6 -1 69 89 96 97 99
2857 867 1,507 1,502 0 0 81 95 99 100 100
4257 1,133 1,750 1,745 9 1 85 100 100 100 100
Zero earners
All 855 571 591 0 0 74 82 86 90 91
Sex
Women 537 469 538 0 0 73 80 84 88 90
Men 318 730 753 0 0 75 85 89 92 94
SOURCE: Authors' calculations using MINT simulations.
NOTES: The inflated Statement PIA is the median estimated PIA calculated for eligible cohort members in the year they attain a given Statement age, adjusted for the growth of wages between the second year prior to the Statement age and the year cohort members reached age 60. The retirement PIA is the median PIA received at age 62 for the cohort. The AIME thresholds shown are the lowest values for the quintile. Zero Earners are those with zero earnings in the 2 years prior to the Statement year.
PIA = primary insurance amount; AIME = average indexed monthly earnings; MINT = Modeling Income in the Near Term.
a. Values in the difference columns are median differences, not the differences between the medians reported in the inflated Statement PIA and retirement PIA columns.