2003 OASDI Trustees Report

II. OVERVIEW

II.B1 Summary of 2002 Trust Fund Financial Operations

II.B2 Tax Rates for 2002 and Later

II.C1 Ultimate Values of Key Demographic and Economic Assumptions

II.D1 Projected Maximum Trust Fund Ratios Achieved and Trust Fund Exhaustion Dates Under the Intermediate Assumptions

II.D2 Reasons for Change in the 75-Year Actuarial Balance Under Intermediate Assumptions

III. FINANCIAL OPERATIONS OF THE TRUST FUNDS AND LEGISLATIVE CHANGES IN THE LAST YEAR

III.A1 Operations of the OASI Trust Fund, Calendar Year 2002

III.A2 Assets of the OASI Trust Fund, End of Calendar Years 2001 and 2002

III.A3 Operations of the DI Trust Fund, Calendar Year 2002

III.A4 Assets of the DI Trust Fund, End of Calendar Years 2001 and 2002

III.A5 Operations of the Combined OASI and DI Trust Funds, Calendar Year 2002

III.A6 Comparison of Actual Calendar Year 2002 Trust Fund Operations With Estimates Made in Prior Reports

III.A7 Distribution of Benefit Payments by Type of Beneficiary or Payment, Calendar Years 2001 and 2002

III.A8 Administrative Expenses as a Percentage of Contribution Income and of Total Expenditures, Calendar Years 1998-2002

III.A9 Trust Fund Investment Transactions, Calendar Year 2002

IV. ACTUARIAL ESTIMATES

IV.A1 Operations of the OASI Trust Fund, Calendar Years 1998-2012

IV.A2 Operations of the DI Trust Fund, Calendar Years 1998-2012

IV.A3 Operations of the Combined OASI and DI Trust Funds, Calendar Years 1998-2012

IV.A4 Reasons for Change in Trust Fund Ratios at the Beginning of the Tenth Year of Projection

IV.B1 Estimated Annual Income Rates, Cost Rates, and Balances Calendar Years 1990-2080

IV.B2 Covered Workers and Beneficiaries, Calendar Years 1945-2080

IV.B3 Estimated Trust Fund Ratios, Calendar Years 2003-80

IV.B4 Summarized Income Rates, Cost Rates, and Balances for 25-Year Subperiods, Calendar Years 2003-77

IV.B5 Summarized Income Rates, Cost Rates, and Actuarial Balances for Valuation Periods, Calendar Years 2003-77

IV.B6 Components of 75-Year OASDI Actuarial Balance Under Intermediate Assumptions (2003-77)

IV.B7 Unfunded OASDI Obligations From Program Inception Through the Infinite Horizon

IV.B8 Present Values of OASDI Cost Less Tax Revenue and Unfunded Obligations for Program Participants

IV.B9 Comparison of Estimated Long-Range Actuarial Balances With the Minimum Allowable in the Test for Close Actuarial Balance, Based on Intermediate Assumptions

IV.B10 Components of Annual Income Rates, Calendar Years 2003-80

IV.B11 Components of Summarized Income Rates and Cost Rates, Calendar Years 2003-77

IV.B12 Reasons for Change in the 75-Year Actuarial Balance Under Intermediate Assumptions

V. ASSUMPTIONS AND METHODS UNDERLYING ACTUARIAL ESTIMATES

V.A1 Principal Demographic Assumptions, Calendar Years 1940-2080

V.A2 Social Security Area Population as of July 1 and Dependency Ratios, Calendar Years 1950-2080

V.A3 Period Life Expectancies

V.A4 Cohort Life Expectancies

V.B1 Principal Economic Assumptions

V.B2 Additional Economic Factors

V.C1 Cost-of-Living Benefit Increases, Average Wage Index, Contribution and Benefit Bases, and Retirement Earnings Test Exempt Amounts, 1975-2012

V.C2 Selected Wage-Indexed Program Amounts, Calendar Years 1978-2012

V.C3 Legislated Changes in Normal Retirement Age and Delayed Retirement Credits, for Persons Reaching Age 62 in Each Year 1986 and Later

V.C4 OASI Beneficiaries With Benefits in Current-Payment Status at the End of Calendar Years 1945-2080

V.C5 Long-Range Ultimate Disabled Worker Age-Sex Adjusted Incidence Rates

V.C6 DI Beneficiaries With Benefits in Current-Payment Status at the End of Calendar Years 1960-2080

VI. APPENDICES

A. HISTORY OF OASI AND DI TRUST FUND OPERATIONS

VI.A1 Contribution and Benefit Base and Contribution Rates

VI.A2 Historical Operations of the OASI Trust Fund, Calendar Years 1937-2002

VI.A3 Historical Operations of the DI Trust Fund, Calendar Years 1957-2002

VI.A4 Historical Operations of the Combined OASI and DI Trust Funds, Calendar Years 1957-2002

B. HISTORY OF ACTUARIAL BALANCE ESTIMATES

VI.B1 Long-Range OASDI Actuarial Balances as Shown in the Trustees Reports for 1983-2003

C. FISCAL YEAR HISTORICAL DATA AND PROJECTIONS THROUGH

VI.C1 Operations of the OASI Trust Fund, Fiscal Year 2002

VI.C2 Operations of the DI Trust Fund, Fiscal Year 2002

VI.C3 Operations of the Combined OASI and DI Trust Funds, Fiscal Year 2002

VI.C4 Operations of the OASI Trust Fund in Fiscal Years 1998-2012

VI.C5 Operations of the DI Trust Fund in Fiscal Years 1998-2012

VI.C6 Operations of the Combined OASI and DI Trust Funds in Fiscal Years 1998-2012

D. LONG-RANGE SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS

VI.D1 Sensitivity to Varying Fertility Assumptions

VI.D2 Sensitivity to Varying Death-Rate Assumptions

VI.D3 Sensitivity to Varying Net-Immigration Assumptions

VI.D4 Sensitivity to Varying Real-Wage Assumptions

VI.D5 Sensitivity to Varying CPI-Increase Assumptions

VI.D6 Sensitivity to Varying Real-Interest Assumptions

VI.D7 Sensitivity to Varying Disability Incidence Assumptions

VI.D8 Sensitivity to Varying Disability Termination Assumptions

E. STOCHASTIC PROJECTIONS

VI.E1 Long-Range Estimates Relating to the Actuarial Status of the Combined OASDI Program Reflecting the Assumptions of the 2002 Trustees Report

F. ESTIMATES FOR OASDI AND HI, SEPARATE AND COMBINED

VI.F1 Contribution Rates for the OASDI and HI Programs

VI.F2 Estimated OASDI and HI Annual Income Rates, Cost Rates, and Balances, Calendar Years 2003-80

VI.F3 Summarized OASDI and HI Income Rates, Cost Rates, and Balances for 25-Year Subperiods, Calendar Years 2003-77

VI.F4 Summarized OASDI and HI Income Rates and Cost Rates for Valuation Periods, Calendar Years 2003-77

VI.F5 OASDI and HI Annual and Summarized Income, Cost, and Balance as a Percentage of GDP, Calendar Years 2003-80

VI.F6 Ratio of OASDI Taxable Payroll to GDP, Calendar Years 2003-80

VI.F7 Selected Economic Variables, Calendar Years 2002-80

VI.F8 Operations of the Combined OASI and DI Trust Funds, in Constant 2003 Dollars, Calendar Years 2003-80

VI.F9 Operations of the Combined OASI and DI Trust Funds, in Current Dollars, Calendar Years 2003-80

VI.F10 OASDI and HI Annual Income Excluding Interest, Cost, and Balance in Current Dollars, Calendar Years 2003-80

VI.F11 Estimated Annual Scheduled Benefit Amounts for Retired Workers With Various Pre-Retirement Earnings Patterns Based on Intermediate Assumptions, Calendar Years 2003-80

G. ANALYSIS OF BENEFIT DISBURSEMENTS FROM THE OASI TRUST FUND WITH RESPECT TO DISABLED BENEFICIARIES

VI.G1 Benefit Disbursements From the OASI Trust Fund With Respect to Disabled Beneficiaries

VI.G2 Benefit Disbursements Under the OASDI Program With Respect to Disabled Beneficiaries

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