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1997 OASDI Trustees Report



F. ACTUARIAL ESTIMATES

Section 201(c)(2) of the Social Security Act requires the Board of Trustees to report annually to the Congress on the operations and status of the OASI and DI Trust Funds during the preceding fiscal year and on the expected operations and status of those trust funds during the ensuing 5 fiscal years. Section 201(c) of the Act also requires that the annual report include "a statement of the actuarial status of the Trust Funds."

The required information for the fiscal year that ended September 30, 1996, is presented in section II.C of this report. Estimates of the operations and status of the trust funds during fiscal years 1997-2006 are presented in this section. In addition, similar estimates for calendar years 1997-2006 are presented. A description of the actuarial status of the trust funds over the next 75 years, including long-range estimates of program income and program costs over that period, is also included in this section. The methods used to estimate the short-range operations of the trust funds and the long-range actuarial status are described in section II.H.

A number of different measures are useful in evaluating the financial status of the trust funds over the next 75 years. In addition to actuarial balance, and summarized income and cost rates, which are described in detail below, these measures include (1) the levels of future annual income and outgo, both in terms of dollars and relative to annual taxable earnings or payroll, including the pattern and ultimate values of such levels; (2) the annual differences between income and outgo, i.e., the annual balances, in dollars and relative to taxable payroll; (3) the size of future fund accumulations, in dollars and relative to future annual expenditures; and (4) the year in which trust fund exhaustion is estimated to occur. Estimates of all these indicators are presented in this section or in the appendices of this report. However, more attention is focused on certain elements of these measures, as described below.

In the short range, the adequacy of the trust fund level is generally measured by the "trust fund ratio," which is defined to be the assets at the beginning of the year expressed as a percentage of the outgo during the year. (For the years 1984-90, the assets at the beginning of the year also included advance tax transfers for the month of January. Assets at the beginning of subsequent years include advance tax transfers only if such transfers are needed to enable the timely payment of benefits.) The trust fund ratio represents the proportion of a year's outgo which can be paid with the funds available at the beginning of the year. During periods when trust fund disbursements exceed income, as might happen during an economic recession, trust fund assets are used to meet the shortfall. In the event of recurring shortfalls for an extended period, the trust funds can allow sufficient time for the development, enactment, and implementation of legislation to restore financial stability to the program.

The test of financial adequacy over the short-range projection period (the next 10 years), is applicable to each of the OASI and DI Trust Funds, separately, as well as to the combined funds. The requirements of this test are as follows: If the estimated trust fund ratio for a fund is at least 100 percent at the beginning of the projection period, then it must be projected to remain at or above 100 percent throughout the 10-year projection period. Alternatively, if the ratio is initially less than 100 percent, then it must be projected to reach a level of at least 100 percent by the beginning of the sixth year and to remain at or above 100 percent throughout the remainder of the 10-year period. In addition, the fund's estimated assets at the beginning of each month of the 10-year period must be sufficient to cover that month's disbursements. This test is applied on the basis of the intermediate (alternative II) estimates. Failure to meet this test by either trust fund is an indication that solvency of the program over the next 10 years is in question and that Congressional action is needed to improve the short-range financial adequacy of the program.

Basic to the discussion of the long-range actuarial status are the concepts of "income rate" and "cost rate," each of which is expressed as a percentage of taxable payroll. The annual income rate is the ratio of income from revenues (payroll tax contributions and income from the taxation of benefits) to the OASDI taxable payroll for the year. The OASDI taxable payroll consists of the total earnings which are subject to OASDI taxes, with some relatively small adjustments. 1/ Because the taxable payroll reflects these adjustments, the annual income rate can be defined to be the sum of the OASDI combined employee-employer contribution rate (or the payroll-tax rate) scheduled in the law and the rate of income from taxation of benefits (which is, in turn, expressed as a percentage of taxable payroll). As such, it excludes reimbursements from the general fund of the Treasury for the costs associated with special monthly payments to certain uninsured persons who attained age 72 before 1968 and who have fewer than 3 quarters of coverage, transfers under the interfund borrowing provisions, and net investment income.

The annual cost rate is the ratio of the cost (or outgo, expenditures, or disbursements) of the program to the taxable payroll for the year. In this context, the outgo is defined to include benefit payments, special monthly payments to certain uninsured persons who have 3 or more quarters of coverage (and whose payments are therefore not reimbursable from the general fund of the Treasury), administrative expenses, net transfers from the trust funds to the Railroad Retirement program under the financial-interchange provisions, and payments for vocational rehabilitation services for disabled beneficiaries; it excludes special monthly payments to certain uninsured persons whose payments are reimbursable from the general fund of the Treasury (as described above), and transfers under the interfund borrowing provisions. For any year, the income rate minus the cost rate is referred to as the "balance" for the year. (In this context, the term "balance" does not represent the assets of the trust funds, which are sometimes referred to as the "balance" in the trust funds.)

The long-range actuarial status of the trust funds has generally been summarized by the calculation of the "actuarial balance." The actuarial balance for a specified valuation period is defined as the difference between the summarized income rate and the summarized cost rate over that period. The summarized income rate over a period of years is equal to the ratio of (a) the sum of the trust fund balance at the beginning of the period plus the present value of the total income (excluding interest earnings) during the period, to (b) the present value of the taxable payroll for the years in the period. The summarized cost rate is equal to the ratio of (a) the sum of the present value of the outgo during the period plus the present value of a targeted trust fund level at the end of the period equal to the following year's outgo to (b) the present value of the taxable payroll for the years in the period. A targeted ending trust fund level of 1 year's expenditures is considered to be an adequate reserve for unforeseen contingencies; thus, in addition to the total outgo during the projection period, the summarized cost rate includes the cost of reaching and maintaining a target trust fund ratio of 100 percent through the end of the projection period.

The present-value calculations take account of the effect of interest on future income and outgo. In calculating the present value of future income, for example, the income in each year of the projection period is discounted to the beginning of the period using the interest rate assumed for calculating the interest earnings of the trust funds during the period. Thus, the calculations of the summarized income and cost rates are consistent with the estimates of trust fund operations over the projection period.

If the program is in exact actuarial balance for a particular period (that is, if the actuarial balance is zero), then the present value of estimated future income for all years in the period, plus the beginning trust fund balance, is exactly equal to the present value of estimated future expenditures for all years in the period, plus the present value of targeted trust fund assets at the end of the period in the amount of the next year's estimated outgo. A negative actuarial balance indicates that future estimated income and the beginning trust fund balance together are not sufficient to accumulate to the level of the targeted assets while also covering all estimated expenditures in the period. A positive actuarial balance indicates that in addition to covering all estimated expenditures in the period, the estimated ending trust fund assets are more than the targeted level.

The size of the actuarial balance represents a measure of the program's financial adequacy for the period in question. If the actuarial balance is a deficit, the size of the deficit can be interpreted as that amount which, if added to the combined employee-employer contribution rate scheduled under present law for each of the next 75 years, would bring the program into exact actuarial balance. Of course, there are any number of different ways to increase taxes or to reduce expenditures, as well as different combinations of such changes, that would have an equivalent effect on the actuarial balance. Any one of these different sets of changes would, therefore, bring the program into exact actuarial balance.

The long-range test of close actuarial balance applies to a set of valuation periods beginning with the first 10 years and continuing through the first 11 years, the first 12 years, etc., up to and including the full 75-year projection period. Under the long-range test, summarized income rates and cost rates are calculated for each of the 66 valuation periods in the full 75-year long-range projection period, with the first of these periods consisting of the next 10 years. Each succeeding period becomes longer by 1 year, culminating with the period consisting of the next 75 years. The long-range test is met if, for each of the 66 time periods, the actuarial balance is not less than zero or is negative by, at most, a specified percentage of the summarized cost rate for the same time period. The percentage allowed for a negative actuarial balance is 5 percent for the full 75-year period. For shorter periods, the allowable percentage begins with zero for the first 10 years and increases uniformly for longer periods, until it reaches the maximum percentage of 5 percent allowed for the 75-year period. The criterion for meeting the test is less stringent for the longer periods in recognition of the greater uncertainty associated with estimates for more distant years.

When a negative actuarial balance in excess of the allowable percentage of the summarized cost rate is projected for one or more of the 66 separate valuation periods, the program fails the long-range test of close actuarial balance. Being out of close actuarial balance indicates that the program is expected to experience financial problems in the future and that ways of improving the financial status of the program should be considered. The sooner the actuarial balance is less than the minimum allowable balance, expressed as a percentage of the summarized cost rate, the more urgent is the need for corrective action. However, it is recognized that necessary changes in program financing or benefit provisions should not be put off until the last possible moment if future beneficiaries and workers are to be able to effectively plan for their retirement.

It was noted earlier in this section that in addition to the measures used in the tests of the overall financial condition of the program, other financial measures are also presented in this report. All of these measures are important factors in arriving at a full understanding of the financial position of the OASDI program.

1. Operations and Status of the Trust Funds During
the Period October 1, 1996, to December 31, 2006

This subsection presents estimates of the operations and financial status of the OASI and DI Trust Funds for the period October 1, 1996, to December 31, 2006, based on the assumptions described in the preceding two sections. No changes are assumed to occur in the present statutory provisions and regulations under which the OASDI program operates.2/

These estimates indicate that the assets of the OASI Trust Fund would continue to increase throughout the next 10 years, rapidly under the intermediate and low cost assumptions and moderately under the high cost assumptions. The estimates indicate that the assets of the DI Trust Fund would also continue to increase throughout the next 10 years under the intermediate and low cost assumptions, at a slightly lower rate than for the OASI Trust Fund. Under the high cost assumptions, DI assets would increase for a few years before declining. Although not shown in these estimates, DI assets would become insufficient to permit the timely payment of benefits by the middle of 2007 under the high cost assumptions.

As will be shown later in this subsection, the OASI and DI Trust Funds, both individually and combined, meet the requirements of the Trustees' test of short-range financial adequacy.

a. OASI Trust Fund Operations

Estimates of the operations and status of the OASI Trust Fund during calendar years 1997-2006 are shown in table II.F1 based on each of the three alternative sets of assumptions. Actual operations for calendar year 1996 are also shown in the table.

The increases in estimated income shown in table II.F1 under each set of assumptions reflect increases in estimated taxable earnings and growth in interest earnings on the invested assets of the trust fund. For each alternative, employment and earnings are assumed to increase in every year through the year 2006 (with the exception that employment is estimated to decline temporarily during the economic recessions assumed under alternative III). The number of persons with taxable earnings would increase on the basis of alternatives I, II, and III from 144 million during calendar year 1996 to about 161 million, 157 million, and 152 million, respectively, in 2006. The total annual amount of taxable earnings is projected to increase from $3,083 billion in 1996 to $5,014 billion, $4,988 billion, and $5,099 billion, in 2006, on the basis of alternatives I, II, and III, respectively. (In 1996 dollars -- taking account of assumed increases in the CPI from 1996 to 2006 under each alternative -- the estimated amounts of taxable earnings in 2006 are $3,898 billion, $3,560 billion, and $3,234 billion, respectively.) These increases in taxable earnings are due primarily to (1) projected increases in employment levels and average earnings in covered employment, (2) increases in the contribution and benefit base in 1997-2006 under the automatic adjustment provisions, and (3) various provisions enacted in 1983 and later, including extensions of coverage to additional categories of workers.

Growth in interest earnings represents a significant component of the overall increase in trust fund income during this period. Although interest rates payable on trust fund investments are not assumed to change substantially from current levels, the continuing rapid increase in OASI assets will result in a corresponding increase in interest income. By the year 2006, interest income to the OASI Trust Fund is projected to range from 13 to 15 percent of total trust fund income (depending on alternative), as compared to 10 percent in 1996.


Table II.F1.­ Estimated Operations of the OASI Trust Fund by Alternative,
Calendar Years 1996-2006

[Amounts in billions]

Calendar
year
Income Expen-
ditures
Net increase
in fund
Fund at end
of year
Trust fund
Amount 1/ Ratio 2/

       1996 3/ $363.7 $308.2 $55.5 $514.0 $458.5 149
Intermediate:
       1997 391.8 322.0 69.8 583.8 514.0 160
       1998 409.0 336.8 72.2 656.0 583.8 173
       1999 430.1 353.1 77.1 733.1 656.0 186
       2000 450.2 370.3 79.8 812.9 733.1 198
       2001 475.9 389.2 86.6 899.6 812.9 209
 
       2002 502.7 409.5 93.3 992.9 899.6 220
       2003 531.5 430.3 101.2 1,094.0 992.9 231
       2004 561.8 452.7 109.1 1,203.1 1,094.0 242
       2005 595.1 476.2 118.9 1,322.0 1,203.1 253
       2006 628.9 501.1 127.8 1,449.8 1,322.0 264
Low Cost:
       1997 393.1 321.7 71.3 585.4 514.0 160
       1998 413.2 334.7 78.5 663.8 585.4 175
       1999 435.7 348.3 87.3 751.2 663.8 191
       2000 455.8 362.0 93.8 845.0 751.2 208
       2001 482.6 376.6 106.0 951.0 845.0 224
 
       2002 510.0 391.8 118.2 1,069.3 951.0 243
       2003 539.1 406.9 132.2 1,201.5 1,069.3 263
       2004 569.7 423.7 146.0 1,347.5 1,201.5 284
       2005 603.5 441.1 162.4 1,509.9 1,347.5 305
       2006 638.1 459.6 178.4 1,688.4 1,509.9 329
High Cost:
       1997 390.9 322.3 68.6 582.6 514.0 159
       1998 400.1 340.2 59.9 642.5 582.6 171
       1999 427.3 359.1 68.2 710.7 642.5 179
       2000 455.6 385.8 69.8 780.5 710.7 184
       2001 470.5 416.0 54.5 835.0 780.5 188
 
       2002 500.8 442.3 58.5 893.5 835.0 189
       2003 532.9 469.0 63.9 957.4 893.5 190
       2004 565.4 498.2 67.2 1,024.5 957.4 192
       2005 599.0 529.0 70.0 1,094.5 1,024.5 194
       2006 632.3 561.9 70.4 1,164.9 1,094.5 195

1 Represents assets at beginning of year.

2 Represents amounts shown in preceding column as a percentage of expenditures during the year. See text concerning interpretation of these ratios.

3 Figures for 1996 represent actual experience.

Note: Totals do not necessarily equal the sums of rounded components.



Rising expenditures during 1997-2006 reflect automatic benefit increases as well as the upward trend in the numbers of beneficiaries and in the average monthly earnings underlying benefits payable by the program. The growth in the number of beneficiaries in the past and the expected growth in the future result both from the increase in the aged population and from the increase in the proportion of the population which is eligible for benefits. The latter increase is primarily due to various amendments enacted after 1950 which modified eligibility provisions and extended coverage to additional categories of employment.

Growth has also occurred, and will continue to occur, in the proportion of eligible persons who, in fact, receive benefits. This growth is due to several factors, among which are (1) the amendments enacted since 1950 which affect the conditions governing the receipt of benefits and (2) the increasing percentage of eligible persons who are aged 70 and over and who therefore may receive benefits regardless of earnings.

The estimates shown in table II.F1 indicate that income to the OASI Trust Fund would substantially exceed expenditures in every year of the short-range projection period, under each of the three sets of assumptions used in this report. The assets of the OASI Trust Fund at the beginning of 1996 were equal to 149 percent of the fund's expenditures in 1996. As described in the introduction to this section, this ratio is known as the "trust fund ratio;" it provides a useful measure of the relative level of trust fund assets. During 1996, income exceeded disbursements by $55.5 billion. As a result, the trust fund ratio increased to about 160 percent at the beginning of 1997.

Assets are estimated to increase substantially in each year of the short-range projection period, based on each of the three alternative sets of assumptions. The increase in the trust fund ratio from 160 percent at the beginning of 1997 to the range of 195-329 percent at the beginning of the year 2006 is due, in part, to the increases in the OASI tax rate that became effective in 1988 and 1990 (even though much of the increase was reallocated to the DI Trust Fund in 1994). Asset growth is also assisted by growth in taxable earnings that is projected to exceed the growth in benefit payments throughout the short-range projection period (except for certain years under alternative III).

As noted in section II.B, the portion of the OASI Trust Fund that is not needed to meet day-to-day expenditures is used to purchase investments, generally in special public-debt obligations of the U.S. Government. The cash used to make these purchases becomes part of the general fund of the Treasury and is used to meet various Federal outlays. Interest is paid to the trust fund on these securities and, when the securities mature or are redeemed prior to maturity, general fund revenues are used to repay the principal to the trust fund. Thus, the investment operations of the trust fund result in various cash flows between the trust fund and the general fund of the Treasury.

Currently, the excess of tax income to the OASI Trust Fund over the fund's expenditures results in a substantial net cash flow from the trust fund to the general fund. Sometime after the turn of the century, as shown in the following subsection, this cash flow will reverse; as trust fund securities are redeemed to meet benefit payments and other expenditures, revenue from the general fund of the Treasury will be drawn upon to provide the necessary cash. The accumulation and subsequent redemption of substantial trust fund assets has important public policy and economic implications that extend well beyond the operation of the OASDI program itself. Discussion of these broader issues is not within the scope of this report.

Based on the intermediate (alternative II) assumptions, the assets of the OASI Trust Fund would continue to exceed 100 percent of annual expenditures by a steadily increasing amount through the end of the year 2006. Consequently, the OASI Trust Fund satisfies the test of short-range financial adequacy by a wide margin. The estimates in table II.F1 also indicate that the short-range test would be satisfied even under the high cost assumptions.

In interpreting the trust fund ratios in table II.F1, it should be noted that at the beginning of any month there must be sufficient assets on hand to meet the benefit payments that are payable at the beginning of that month. The specific minimum amount of assets required for this purpose depends on a number of factors and varies somewhat from month to month. Assets of roughly 8 to 9 percent of annual expenditures are normally sufficient for this purpose. If the assets of either the OASI or DI Trust Fund at the end of a month fall below the minimum amount needed to meet the benefits payable at the beginning of the next month, section 201(a) of the Social Security Act provides for an advance transfer to the trust fund of all the taxes that are expected to be received by the fund in the next month. Thus, the difference between (1) the sum of the estimated trust fund ratios shown in table II.F1 and the advance tax transfers for January expressed as a percentage of total expenditures in the year and (2) the minimum required level of about 8-9 percent, represents the reserve available to handle adverse contingencies.

b. DI Trust Fund Operations

The estimated operations and financial status of the DI Trust Fund during calendar years 1997-2006 under the three sets of assumptions are shown in table II.F2, together with figures on actual experience in 1996. Income is generally projected to increase steadily under each alternative, reflecting most of the same factors described previously in connection with the OASI Trust Fund. Interest income was 5 percent of overall income to the DI Trust Fund in 1996; it is projected to increase to roughly 9 percent of annual trust fund income beginning in 2001 on the basis of the intermediate assumptions.

Expenditures are estimated to increase because of automatic benefit increases and projected increases in the amounts of average monthly earnings on which benefits are based. In addition, under all three sets of assumptions, the number of DI beneficiaries in current-payment status is projected to continue increasing throughout the short-range projection period, but at somewhat lower levels than anticipated in last year's report. The projected annual average growth rate in the number of DI worker beneficiaries is roughly 4.5 percent over the period 1996-2006. Growth is attributable to several factors, including (1) a gradually increasing trend in the estimated number of individuals insured for disability benefits, and (2) program dynamics which result in a greater number of insured workers awarded benefits than disabled workers whose benefits terminate as a result of death, recovery, or conversion to old-age benefit payments.

The proportion of insured workers who apply for and are awarded disability benefits in a given year is referred to as the "disability incidence rate." This rate has fluctuated substantially in past years and the causes for the variation have not been precisely determined. Incidence rates increased during 1970-75, declined during 1976-82, increased again during 1983-85, and remained steady in 1986-89. During 1990-92 the incidence rate resumed increasing, with unusually rapid increases (on a relative basis) of 8, 12, and 17 percent in those 3 years. In 1993-96, the observed incidence rate declined slightly from the 1992 level. A 3.3 percent reduction in the number of disabled worker awards from 1995 to 1996 is attributable to several factors, including (1) reductions of 7 percent and 4 percent in applications in 1995 and 1996, respectively, resulting in fewer determinations (and consequently allowances) of disability benefits, (2) low levels of unemployment, and (3) stabilizing female labor participation rates from 1995 to 1996.

The rapid increases in disability benefit applications and awards during 1990-92 appear to be attributable, in part, to the rise in unemployment associated with the 1990-91 economic recession (although the evidence is not conclusive). Other explanatory factors may include changes to the conditions governing receipt of disability benefits, as introduced through recent legislation, regulations, and court decisions, and increased awareness of the DI program by the public.

These and other factors were discussed at some length in a report issued December 1992, entitled "The Social Security Disability Insurance Program: An Analysis" prepared by the Department of Health and Human Services at the request of the Board of Trustees. Subsequent to that report, the Social Security Administration, together with the Office of the Assistant Secretary for Planning and Evaluation in the Department of Health and Human Services, commissioned a series of studies attempting to quantify some of the reasons for the rapid growth in the DI program in the early 1990s. Reference should be made to these studies for further details on the possible factors contributing to the increases in disability incidence rates observed in the period 1990-92, and the subsequent decline observed since 1992.

Due to the substantial variation exhibited by incidence rates in the past and the difficulty in determining reliable explanatory factors for this variation, any projection of future incidence rates necessarily will be uncertain. The 1996 disability incidence rate (calculated on an age-sex-adjusted basis) was 5.03 awards per 1,000 insured workers. This figure was about 8 percent higher than the average incidence rate of 4.65 per thousand that was experienced during 1975 through 1996. Under the intermediate assumptions, incidence rates are assumed to decrease by another 2 percent in 1997-2000 and then to increase gradually for the remainder of the short-range projection period, to about 1 percent above the level experienced in 1996. A small portion of this decline is attributable to the prohibition on future awards of benefits to persons disabled by drug addiction or alcoholism enacted in Public Law 104-121. Under the low cost alternative, incidence rates decline by about 15 percent during 1997-2006, staying under the 1975-96 average for years after 1997. The high cost alternative assumes that incidence rates increase by 19 percent over the next 9 years and then decline slightly in the last year of the short-range period.

The proportion of DI beneficiaries whose benefits terminate in a given year has also fluctuated significantly in the past. Over the last 20 years, the rates of benefit termination due to death or conversion to retirement benefits (at attainment of normal retirement age) have declined very gradually. This trend is attributable, in part, to the lower average age of new beneficiaries. The termination rate due to recovery has been much more volatile. Currently, the proportion of disabled beneficiaries whose benefits cease because of their recovery from disability is very low in comparison to levels experienced throughout the 1970s and early 1980s.


Table II.F2.­ Estimated Operations of the DI Trust Fund by Alternative,
Calendar Years 1996-2006

[Amounts in billions]

Calendar
year
Income Expen-
ditures
Net increase
in fund
Fund at end
of year
Trust fund
Amount 1/ Ratio 2/

       1996 3/ $60.7 $45.4 $15.4 $52.9 $37.6 83
Intermediate:
       1997 59.5 48.8 10.7 63.6 52.9 108
       1998 61.8 52.3 9.5 73.1 63.6 122
       1999 65.0 56.2 8.8 82.0 73.1 130
       2000 72.2 60.2 12.0 94.0 82.0 136
       2001 76.6 65.0 11.6 105.5 94.0 145
 
       2002 80.9 70.4 10.5 116.0 105.5 150
       2003 85.3 76.2 9.1 125.1 116.0 152
       2004 89.8 82.9 7.0 132.1 125.1 151
       2005 94.6 90.0 4.6 136.7 132.1 147
       2006 99.3 97.5 1.8 138.5 136.7 140
Low Cost:
       1997 59.7 48.2 11.6 64.5 52.9 110
       1998 62.6 50.6 11.9 76.4 64.5 127
       1999 66.1 53.5 12.6 89.1 76.4 143
       2000 73.6 56.2 17.4 106.5 89.1 159
       2001 78.3 59.5 18.8 125.3 106.5 179
 
       2002 83.0 63.2 19.8 145.2 125.3 198
       2003 88.0 67.0 20.9 166.1 145.2 217
       2004 93.0 71.6 21.4 187.5 166.1 232
       2005 98.5 76.5 22.0 209.5 187.5 245
       2006 104.0 81.5 22.5 232.0 209.5 257
High Cost:
       1997 59.3 49.7 9.6 62.6 52.9 107
       1998 60.3 54.4 5.8 68.4 62.6 115
       1999 64.3 59.9 4.4 72.8 68.4 114
       2000 72.2 66.5 5.7 78.6 72.8 110
       2001 74.4 74.5 -.1 78.5 78.6 105
 
       2002 78.7 82.3 -3.6 74.8 78.5 95
       2003 83.0 90.6 -7.6 67.2 74.8 83
       2004 87.1 99.9 -12.9 54.3 67.2 67
       2005 90.9 110.0 -19.1 35.2 54.3 49
       2006 94.2 120.7 -26.5 8.8 35.2 29

1 Represents assets at beginning of year.

2 Represents amounts shown in preceding column as a percentage of expenditures during the year. See text concerning interpretation of these ratios.

3 Figures for 1996 represent actual experience.

Note: Totals do not necessarily equal the sums of rounded components.



In this report, termination rates due to attainment of normal retirement age are estimated to continue their downward trend through 2002. This rate would drop in 2003 and remain at a depressed level for 5 more years as a result of the increase in the normal retirement age which begins in that year. Age-specific death rates for disabled beneficiaries are assumed to remain at about their current level. Terminations due to recovery are assumed to increase from their current levels in response to the additional funding for continuing disability reviews authorized under Public Law 104-121. In addition, the prohibition placed by Public Law 104-121 on benefits payable to individuals disabled by drug addiction and alcoholism, is expected to result in a one-time increase in terminations during 1997. Ignoring this one-time effect, the overall termination rate (reflecting all causes) is projected under all three alternatives to continue declining gradually during 1997-2002. The overall rate then declines in 2003 due largely to the increase in the normal retirement age cited above.

The continuing spread of Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome (AIDS) had contributed somewhat to increases in DI awards in the early 1990s; however, revised downward estimates of both historical and projected awards due to HIV impairments has been the trend over the last several reports. 3/ In addition, due to the extremely high mortality rates of affected individuals, the total number of disabled workers currently receiving benefits has not increased greatly as a result of AIDS, and has actually decreased in recent years. Although many aspects of the AIDS epidemic are well understood, there remains considerable uncertainty regarding future medical advances and future incidence of HIV infection. To reflect this uncertainty, the projected numbers of benefit awards to AIDS patients are varied by alternative. Under the intermediate assumptions, benefit awards to persons with AIDS are projected to increase slightly through 2000 before beginning to decline. Under the low cost assumptions, the number of new awards declines gradually throughout the projection period, while the number projected under the high cost assumptions increases at a rapid rate through 2001 before beginning to decline.

At the beginning of calendar year 1996, the assets of the DI Trust Fund represented 83 percent of annual expenditures. During 1996, DI income exceeded DI expenditures by $15.4 billion, with the result that the trust fund ratio for the beginning of 1997 increased to about 108 percent. Under the intermediate and low cost sets of assumptions, income is estimated to exceed expenditures in each year of the short-range projection period. The increase in the trust fund ratio from 83 percent at the beginning of 1996 to 108 percent at the beginning of 1997, and the further increase to 152 percent at the beginning of 2003 on the basis of the intermediate assumptions, are largely due to the tax rate reallocation enacted in 1994. The decline in the trust fund ratio to 140 percent at the beginning of 2006 is an early warning of trouble for the DI Trust Fund soon after the short-range period.

Under the low cost assumptions, the trust fund ratio would increase rapidly to 257 percent at the beginning of 2006. Under the high cost assumptions, the assets of the DI Trust Fund would increase through 2000, decline steadily thereafter, and would be exhausted in 2007.

Because DI assets were greater than 1 year's expenditures at the beginning of 1997 and would remain above that level in 1998 and later under the intermediate assumptions, the DI Trust Fund satisfies the Trustees' short-range test of financial adequacy. However, as indicated above, under the high cost assumptions not only does DI fail to meet the short-range test of financial adequacy, but the DI Trust Fund is exhausted soon after the short-range projection period.

c. Combined OASI and DI Trust Fund Operations

The estimated operations and status of the OASI and DI Trust Funds, combined, during calendar years 1997-2006 on the basis of the three alternatives, are shown in table II.F3, together with figures on actual experience in 1996. These amounts are the sums of the corresponding figures shown in tables II.F1 and II.F2.


Table II.F3.­ Estimated Operations of the OASI and DI Trust Funds, Combined,
by Alternative, Calendar Years 1996-2006

[Amounts in billions]

Calendar
year
Income Expen-
ditures
Net increase
in funds
Funds at end
of year
Trust fund
Amount 1/ Ratio 2/

       1996 3/ $424.5 $353.6 $70.9 $567.0 $496.1 140
Intermediate:
       1997 451.3 370.8 80.5 647.4 567.0 153
       1998 470.8 389.1 81.8 729.2 647.4 166
       1999 495.2 409.3 85.9 815.1 729.2 178
       2000 522.3 430.5 91.8 906.9 815.1 189
       2001 552.5 454.3 98.2 1,005.1 906.9 200
 
       2002 583.6 479.9 103.7 1,108.9 1,005.1 209
       2003 616.8 506.5 110.2 1,219.1 1,108.9 219
       2004 651.6 535.6 116.0 1,335.1 1,219.1 228
       2005 689.7 566.2 123.5 1,458.7 1,335.1 236
       2006 728.2 598.6 129.5 1,588.2 1,458.7 244
Low Cost:
       1997 452.8 369.9 82.9 649.8 567.0 153
       1998 475.7 385.3 90.4 740.3 649.8 169
       1999 501.8 401.8 100.0 840.2 740.3 184
       2000 529.4 418.2 111.3 951.5 840.2 201
       2001 561.0 436.1 124.8 1,076.4 951.5 218
 
       2002 593.0 455.0 138.1 1,214.4 1,076.4 237
       2003 627.1 474.0 153.1 1,367.6 1,214.4 256
       2004 662.7 495.3 167.4 1,535.0 1,367.6 276
       2005 702.0 517.5 184.5 1,719.5 1,535.0 297
       2006 742.0 541.1 200.9 1,920.4 1,719.5 318
High Cost:
       1997 450.2 372.0 78.2 645.2 567.0 152
       1998 460.3 394.6 65.7 710.9 645.2 164
       1999 491.6 419.0 72.6 783.6 710.9 170
       2000 527.8 452.3 75.5 859.1 783.6 173
       2001 544.9 490.5 54.4 913.4 859.1 175
 
       2002 579.5 524.6 54.9 968.3 913.4 174
       2003 615.9 559.6 56.3 1,024.6 968.3 173
       2004 652.5 598.2 54.3 1,078.9 1,024.6 171
       2005 689.9 639.0 50.9 1,129.8 1,078.9 169
       2006 726.5 682.6 43.9 1,173.7 1,129.8 165

1 Represents assets at beginning of year.

2 Represents amounts shown in preceding column as a percentage of expenditures during the year. See text concerning interpretation of these ratios.

3 Figures for 1996 represent actual experience.

Note: Totals do not necessarily equal the sums of rounded components.



At the beginning of 1996, the trust fund ratio for the OASI and DI Trust Funds combined was 140 percent, as shown in table
II.F3. During 1996, total income to the two trust funds was $70.9 billion higher than total expenditures. As a result of this increase, combined OASDI assets at the beginning of 1997 represented about 153 percent of estimated combined expenditures for the year. Based on the intermediate assumptions, the trust fund ratio for the combined funds is projected to increase substantially, to 244 percent by 2006. The ratio would grow at an even faster rate under the low cost assumptions, reaching 318 percent at the beginning of the year 2006. Under the high cost assumptions, assets would grow more slowly, reach a maximum of 175 percent in 2001, and decline to 165 percent at the beginning of 2006.

Under the intermediate assumptions, the total assets of the OASI and DI Trust Funds would remain above 100 percent of annual OASDI expenditures throughout the short-range projection period. Therefore, the combined trust funds meet the requirements of the short-range test of financial adequacy. Under the high cost assumptions, the fund ratio for OASI and DI combined would still remain above 100 percent through 2006 (although, as indicated in the section on long-range projections, the ratio would fall below this level shortly thereafter). Thus, even under adverse conditions the combined funds would satisfy the short-range test of financial adequacy, although by a narrower margin.

Section 215(i) of the Social Security Act includes a provision to stabilize automatic benefit increases in the event of high inflation at a time when the combined assets of the OASI and DI Trust Funds are at very low levels (see section II.E of this report). Under all three alternatives, the level of OASDI assets during 1997-2006 would substantially exceed the applicable threshold. Thus, the stabilizer provision would not be triggered during the short-range projection period under any of the sets of assumptions used in this report.

Figure II.F1 presents the estimated total assets of the OASI and DI Trust Funds at the end of each year 1997-2006, based on the three sets of assumptions (together with actual assets at the end of each year 1986-96). Figure II.F2 illustrates the pattern of actual past and estimated future OASDI trust fund ratios under the three alternatives. Trust fund ratios for selected years prior to 1997, and estimates for 1997-2006 under the three alternatives, are shown in table II.F4 for OASI, DI, and both funds combined. In evaluating the ratios shown in figure II.F2 and table II.F4, it should be recalled that a minimum of roughly 8 to 9 percent is generally needed to meet monthly cash-flow requirements. The shaded area in figure II.F2 depicts this requirement.



 

Figure II.F1.­Estimated Assets at End of Year, for OASI and DI Trust Funds
Combined, by Alternative, Calendar Years 1986-2006

[In billions]




Figure II.F2.­ Estimated Trust Fund Ratios, for OASI and DI Trust Funds Combined,
by Alternative, Calendar Years 1986-2006

[Assets as a percentage of annual expenditures]
 


Table II.F4.­ Trust Fund Ratios 1/ by Trust Fund, Selected Calendar Years 1950-96, and Estimated Future Ratios by Alternative, Calendar Years 1997-2006

[In percent]
Calendar year OASI Trust Fund DI Trust Fund OASI and DI Trust
Funds, combined

Historical data:
         1950 1,156 - 1,156
         1955 405 - 405
         1960 180 304 186
         1965 109 121 110
         1970 101 126 103
         1975 63 92 66
         1980 23 35 25
         1985 24 27 24
         1990 78 40 75
 
         1991 87 39 82
         1992 103 40 96
         1993 117 35 107
         1994 130 23 117
         1995 139 55 128
         1996 149 83 140
Intermediate:
         1997 160 108 153
         1998 173 122 166
         1999 186 130 178
         2000 198 136 189
         2001 209 145 200
 
         2002 220 150 209
         2003 231 152 219
         2004 242 151 228
         2005 253 147 236
         2006 264 140 244
Low Cost:
         1997 160 110 153
         1998 175 127 169
         1999 191 143 184
         2000 208 159 201
         2001 224 179 218
 
         2002 243 198 237
         2003 263 217 256
         2004 284 232 276
         2005 305 245 297
         2006 329 257 318
High Cost:
         1997 159 107 152
         1998 171 115 164
         1999 179 114 170
         2000 184 110 173
         2001 188 105 175
 
         2002 189 95 174
         2003 190 83 173
         2004 192 67 171
         2005 194 49 169
         2006 195 29 165

1 Represents assets at beginning of year as a percentage of expenditures during the year. For 1985 and 1990, assets at beginning of year for each trust fund and the combined funds include the respective OASI and DI advance tax transfers for January.


The factors underlying the changes in the intermediate estimates for the OASI Trust Fund, from last year's annual report to this year's, are analyzed in table
II.F5. In the 1996 Annual Report, the trust fund ratio for OASI was estimated to reach 239 percent at the beginning of the year 2005 -- the tenth projection year from that report. The corresponding ratio shown in this report for the tenth projection year (2006) is 264 percent. If there had been no changes to the projections, then the estimated ratio at the beginning of 2006 would have been 9 percentage points higher than at the beginning of 2005. There were changes, however, to reflect the latest actual data, as well as adjustments to the assumptions for future years. The cumulative net effects of changes in economic assumptions (including re-estimates of future tax revenue consistent with recent revisions to historical data) resulted in an increase in the trust fund ratio of 10 percentage points by the beginning of 2006. Finally, the tenth year trust fund ratio was increased an additional 6 percentage points due to the net effect of revised assumptions regarding future average benefit levels and projected numbers of old age and survivor beneficiaries.

Corresponding estimates of the factors underlying the changes in the financial projections for the DI Trust Fund, and for the OASI and DI Trust Funds combined, are also shown in table II.F5. As was the case for OASI, the key factor affecting the new estimates for the DI Trust Fund was the cumulative effect of changes in assumptions related to economic performance.


Table II.F5.­ Change in OASI and DI Trust Fund Ratios at the Beginning of the Tenth Year of Projection, Based on the Intermediate Assumptions, by Reason for Change

[In percent]
Item OASI Trust
Fund
DI Trust
Fund
OASI and DI
Trust Funds,
combined

Trust fund ratio shown in last year's report for calendar year 2005 239 127 221
 
Change in trust fund ratio due to changes in:
         Valuation period 9 -7 7
         Demographic assumptions (1/) (1/) (1/)
         Economic assumptions 10 10 10
         Programmatic assumptions 6 10 6
 
     Total change in trust fund ratio 25 13 23
 
Trust fund ratio shown in this report for calendar year 2006 264 140 244

1 Between -0.5 and 0.5 percent.

Note: Totals do not necessarily equal the sums of rounded components.



For the DI Trust Fund during 1997-2006, the estimated operations in this report under all three alternatives show a slight improvement since the 1996 Annual Report, primarily due to the upward revisions in projections of tax revenue. As for benefit payments from the DI Trust Fund, the number of new disability awards to insured workers in 1996 was less than anticipated in last year's report. As a result, the assumed disability incidence rates for the 1997 Annual Report are slightly lower than the corresponding rates from the 1996 report.

The overall disability termination rate experienced in 1996 was the same as that assumed under the intermediate assumptions of the 1996 Annual Report (9.1 percent). Consequently, the termination rate assumptions for this report were not changed significantly as compared to the 1996 Annual Report.

Table II.F6 shows that total expenditures in calendar year 1996 from the OASI and DI Trust Funds decreased to 11.49 percent of taxable payroll for the year -- 1.13 percentage points less than the income rate of 12.62 percent. This decrease in the total cost rate for OASDI is primarily attributable to the growth of the OASDI taxable payroll, as described previously. Under the intermediate assumptions, the OASDI cost rate would increase gradually during the short-range projection period, to 12.03 percent in 2006. Based on the low cost assumptions, the cost rate is estimated to decline steadily, reaching 10.82 percent in 2006. The high cost alternative indicates a significant increase, to 13.42 percent in 2006.

These cost rate projections are shown in table II.F6 for both trust funds, separately and combined. Table II.F6 also shows a comparison of the cost rates with the corresponding income rates. As explained previously, the income rate represents the sum of the combined employee-employer payroll tax rate and the income derived from the Federal income taxation of OASDI benefits, expressed as a percentage of taxable payroll. The difference between the income rate and the cost rate for a year is referred to as the "balance" for that year.


Table II.F6.­ Comparison of Income Rates and Cost Rates, by Trust Fund, Selected
Calendar Years 1950-96, and Estimated Rates by Alternative,
Calendar years 1997-2006

[As a percentage of taxable payroll]
Calendar
year
OASI Trust Fund
DI Trust Fund
OASI and DI, combined
Income
rate
Cost
rate
Balance Income
rate
Cost
rate
Balance Income
rate
Cost
rate
Balance

Historical data:
       1950 3.00 1.17 1.83 - - - 3.00 1.17 1.83
       1955 4.00 3.34 .66 - - - 4.00 3.34 .66
       1960 5.50 5.59 -.09 0.50 0.30 0.20 6.00 5.89 .11
       1965 6.75 7.23 -.48 .50 .70 -.20 7.25 7.93 -.68
       1970 7.30 7.32 -.02 1.10 .81 .29 8.40 8.12 .28
       1975 8.75 9.29 -.54 1.15 1.36 -.21 9.90 10.65 -.75
       1980 9.04 9.36 -.32 1.12 1.38 -.26 10.16 10.74 -.58
       1985 1/ 10.71 9.94 .78 1/ 1.07 1.13 -.06 1/ 11.79 11.07 .72
       1990 1/ 11.32 9.66 1.66 1/ 1.17 1.09 .09 1/ 12.49 10.74 1.74
 
       1991 11.44 10.15 1.29 1.21 1.18 .03 12.65 11.33 1.32
       1992 11.43 10.28 1.16 1.21 1.27 -.06 12.64 11.54 1.10
       1993 2/ 11.40 10.32 1.08 1.21 1.35 -.14 12.61 11.67 .94
       1994 2/ 10.70 10.23 .47 1.89 1.40 .49 12.59 11.62 .97
       1995 2/ 1/ 10.70 10.20 .50 1/ 1.88 1.44 .44 1/ 12.59 11.64 .95
       1996 2/ 10.73 10.02 .71 1.89 1.47 .42 12.62 11.49 1.13
Intermediate:
       1997 10.91 9.97 .94 1.71 1.51 .20 12.63 11.49 1.14
       1998 10.92 10.05 .86 1.71 1.56 .15 12.63 11.61 1.02
       1999 10.92 10.08 .84 1.71 1.60 .11 12.64 11.68 .95
       2000 1/ 10.82 10.09 .74 1/ 1.81 1.64 .18 1/ 12.64 11.73 .91
       2001 10.83 10.08 .75 1.82 1.68 .13 12.65 11.77 .88
 
       2002 10.84 10.09 .75 1.82 1.74 .08 12.66 11.83 .83
       2003 10.84 10.09 .76 1.82 1.79 .03 12.66 11.87 .79
       2004 10.85 10.09 .77 1.82 1.85 -.03 12.67 11.93 .74
       2005 10.86 10.07 .78 1.82 1.90 -.09 12.67 11.98 .70
       2006 10.86 10.07 .79 1.82 1.96 -.14 12.68 12.03 .65
Low Cost:
       1997 10.91 9.90 1.01 1.71 1.48 .23 12.63 11.38 1.24
       1998 10.91 9.87 1.04 1.71 1.49 .22 12.63 11.36 1.26
       1999 10.92 9.80 1.12 1.71 1.50 .21 12.63 11.30 1.33
       2000 1/ 10.79 9.71 1.09 1/ 1.81 1.51 .31 1/ 12.61 11.21 1.40
       2001 10.82 9.61 1.21 1.81 1.52 .29 12.64 11.13 1.50
 
       2002 10.83 9.52 1.31 1.81 1.53 .28 12.64 11.05 1.59
       2003 10.83 9.41 1.41 1.81 1.55 .26 12.64 10.97 1.68
       2004 10.83 9.34 1.49 1.82 1.58 .24 12.65 10.92 1.73
       2005 10.83 9.26 1.58 1.82 1.60 .21 12.65 10.86 1.79
       2006 10.84 9.19 1.65 1.82 1.63 .19 12.65 10.82 1.84
High Cost:
       1997 10.92 10.03 .88 1.71 1.55 .17 12.63 11.58 1.05
       1998 10.93 10.43 .50 1.71 1.67 .05 12.64 12.09 .55
       1999 10.93 10.32 .61 1.71 1.72 -.01 12.64 12.04 .60
       2000 1/ 10.86 10.44 .42 1/ 1.82 1.80 .02 1/ 12.67 12.24 .44
       2001 10.85 10.99 -.13 1.82 1.97 -.15 12.67 12.96 -.28
 
       2002 10.86 10.97 -.11 1.82 2.04 -.22 12.68 13.01 -.33
       2003 10.87 10.95 -.08 1.82 2.11 -.29 12.69 13.06 -.37
       2004 10.87 10.95 -.07 1.82 2.20 -.37 12.69 13.14 -.45
       2005 10.88 10.99 -.11 1.82 2.29 -.46 12.70 13.27 -.57
       2006 10.89 11.05 -.16 1.82 2.37 -.55 12.71 13.42 -.71

1 Income rates for 1985, 1990, 1995, and 2000 are modified to include adjustments to the lump-sum payments received in 1983 from the general fund of the Treasury for the cost of noncontributory wage credits for military service in 1940-56.

2 Figures shown are preliminary.

Notes:
1. The income rate excludes interest income and certain transfers from the general fund of the Treasury.
2. Totals do not necessarily equal the sums of rounded components.



Estimates of the operations of the trust funds during calendar years 1997-2006 have been presented in the preceding tables on the basis of three different sets of economic assumptions, because of the uncertainty of future economic and demographic developments. Under the provisions of the Social Security Act, estimates of the expected operations and status of the trust funds during the next 5 fiscal years are required to be shown in this report. Accordingly, detailed estimates of the expected operations and status of the trust funds during fiscal years 1997-2001 are shown in the remaining tables of this section for the intermediate assumptions (alternative II) only. Similar detailed estimates are also shown for 5 additional fiscal years (2002-06) and on a calendar-year basis for 1997-2006.

Data on the actual operations of the OASI Trust Fund for selected years during 1940-96, and estimates of the expected operations of the trust fund during 1997-2006 on the basis of the intermediate assumptions, are shown in tables II.F7 and II.F8 on a fiscal- and calendar-year basis, respectively. Corresponding figures on the operations of the DI Trust Fund are shown in tables II.F9 and II.F10. Operations of both trust funds combined are shown in tables II.F11 and II.F12. (Data relating to the operations of the two trust funds for years not shown in tables II.F7-II.F12 are contained in past annual reports.) The figures shown in tables II.F8, II.F10, and II.F12 for 1987, 1988, 1992, and 1993 are adjusted to reflect 12 months of benefit payments in each year. The amounts estimated for 1998 and 1999 are similarly adjusted.


Table II.F7.­ Operations of the OASI Trust Fund During Selected Fiscal Years 1940-96 and Estimated Future Operations During Fiscal Years 1997-2006, on the Basis
of the Intermediate Set of Assumptions

[In millions]
Fiscal
year 1/
Income
Total Net contri-
butions 2/
Income
from taxa-
tion of
benefits
Payments
from the
general fund of
the Treasury 3/
Net
interest 4/

Historical data:
       1940 $592 $550 - - $42
       1945 1,434 1,310 - - 124
       1950 2,367 2,106 - $4 257
       1955 5,525 5,087 - - 438
       1960 10,360 9,843 - - 517
 
       1965 16,443 15,857 - - 586
       1970 31,746 29,955 - 442 1,350
       1975 58,757 56,017 - 447 2,292
       1980 100,051 97,608 - 557 1,886
       1985 179,881 175,305 $3,151 105 1,321
 
       1986 195,331 187,007 3,329 2,293 2,701
       1987 206,846 199,554 3,323 69 3,900
       1988 235,720 226,409 3,335 55 5,922
       1989 260,457 247,116 3,638 43 9,660
       1990 278,607 261,506 2,924 34 14,143
 
       1991 293,288 270,841 5,790 -2,089 18,746
       1992 307,102 278,506 6,019 19 22,557
       1993 319,298 287,569 5,893 14 25,822
       1994 342,263 308,397 5,351 10 28,505
       1995 326,067 289,529 5,114 7 31,417
       1996 356,843 317,157 5,785 -124 34,026
 
Estimates:
       1997 384,768 340,223 6,800 3 37,743
       1998 402,747 353,695 7,198 2 41,852
       1999 424,707 370,781 7,689 1 46,235
       2000 446,270 387,014 8,251 1 51,003
       2001 468,555 404,050 8,863 -231 55,874
 
       2002 495,364 424,634 9,538 (5/) 61,191
       2003 522,980 445,769 10,256 (5/) 66,955
       2004 551,741 467,595 11,029 (5/) 73,116
       2005 588,435 496,943 11,860 (5/) 79,631
       2006 619,567 520,156 12,772 (5/) 86,640

1 Under the Congressional Budget Act of 1974 (Public Law 93-344), fiscal years 1977 and later consist of the 12 months ending on September 30 of each year. Fiscal years prior to 1977 consisted of the 12 months ending on June 30 of each year.

2 Beginning in 1983, includes transfers from general fund of Treasury representing contributions that would have been paid on deemed wage credits for military service in 1957 and later, if such credits were considered to be covered wages.

3 Includes payments (1) in 1947-52 and in 1967 and later, for costs of noncontributory wage credits for military service performed before 1957; (2) in 1972-83, for costs of deemed wage credits for military service performed after 1956; and (3) in 1969 and later, for costs of benefits to certain uninsured persons who attained age 72 before 1968.

4 Net interest includes net profits or losses on marketable investments. Beginning in 1967, administrative expenses are charged currently to the trust fund on an estimated basis, with a final adjustment, including interest, made in the following fiscal year. The amounts of these interest adjustments are included in net interest. For years prior to 1967, a description of the method of accounting for administrative expenses is contained in the 1970 Annual Report. Beginning in October 1973, the figures shown include relatively small amounts of gifts to the fund. Net interest for 1983-86 reflects payments from a borrowing trust fund to a lending trust fund for interest on amounts owed under the interfund borrowing provisions. During 1983-91, interest paid from the trust fund to the general fund on advance tax transfers is reflected. The amounts shown for 1985 and 1986 include interest adjustments of $76.5 million and $11.5 million, respectively, on unnegotiated checks issued before April 1985.

5 Less than $500,000.



Table II.F7.­ Operations of the OASI Trust Fund During Selected Fiscal Years 1940-96 and Estimated Future Operations During Fiscal Years 1997-2006, on the Basis
of the Intermediate Set of Assumptions (Cont.)

[In millions]
Fiscal
year
Expenditures
Assets
Total Benefit
payments 1/
Adminis-
trative
expenses
Transfers
to Railroad
Retirement
program
Net
increase
during
year
Amount
at end of period

Historical data:
       1940 $28 $16 $12 - $564 $1,745
       1945 267 240 27 - 1,167 6,613
       1950 784 727 57 - 1,583 12,893
       1955 4,427 4,333 103 -$10 1,098 21,141
       1960 11,073 10,270 202 600 -713 20,829
 
       1965 15,962 15,226 300 436 482 20,180
       1970 27,321 26,268 474 579 4,425 32,616
       1975 56,676 54,847 848 982 2,081 39,948
       1980 103,228 100,626 1,160 1,442 -3,177 24,566
       1985 169,210 165,310 1,589 2,310 2/ 6,308 33,877
 
       1986 178,534 174,340 1,609 2,585 2/ 3,642 37,519
       1987 186,101 182,003 1,541 2,557 20,745 58,265
       1988 197,021 192,502 1,729 2,790 38,700 96,964
       1989 209,102 204,600 1,657 2,845 51,355 148,319
       1990 223,481 218,948 1,564 2,969 55,126 203,445
 
       1991 241,316 236,195 1,746 3,375 51,972 255,417
       1992 256,239 251,268 1,823 3,148 50,862 306,280
       1993 269,934 264,561 2,021 3,353 49,364 355,644
       1994 281,572 276,278 1,874 3,420 60,691 416,335
       1995 294,456 288,607 1,797 4,052 31,611 447,946
       1996 305,311 299,968 1,788 3,554 51,533 499,479
 
Estimates:
       1997 318,665 312,586 2,324 3,755 66,103 565,582
       1998 333,069 326,932 2,358 3,779 69,677 635,259
       1999 348,959 342,742 2,356 3,861 75,748 711,008
       2000 365,962 359,711 2,328 3,923 80,308 791,315
       2001 384,435 378,109 2,353 3,973 84,119 875,435
 
       2002 404,423 397,990 2,403 4,030 90,941 966,376
       2003 425,097 418,528 2,467 4,102 97,883 1,064,259
       2004 447,072 440,345 2,536 4,191 104,669 1,168,928
       2005 470,254 463,390 2,608 4,256 118,181 1,287,109
       2006 494,828 487,809 2,682 4,338 124,739 1,411,848

1 Beginning in 1967, includes payments for vocational rehabilitation services furnished to disabled persons receiving benefits because of their disabilities. Beginning in 1983, amounts are reduced by amount of reimbursement for unnegotiated benefit checks.

2 Reflects offset for repayment from the OASI Trust Fund of amounts borrowed from the DI and HI Trust Funds in 1982. The amount repaid in 1985 was $4,364 million; in 1986, the amount was $13,155 million.

Note: Totals do not necessarily equal the sums of rounded components.



Table II.F8.­ Operations of the OASI Trust Fund During Selected Calendar
Years 1940-96 and Estimated Future Operations During Calendar Years 1997-2006,
on the Basis of the Intermediate Set of Assumptions

[In millions]
Calendar
year
Income
Total Net contri-
butions 1/
Income
from taxa-
tion of
benefits
Payments
from the
general fund of
the Treasury 2/
Net
interest 3/

Historical data:
       1940 $368 $325 - - $43
       1945 1,420 1,285 - - 134
       1950 2,928 2,667 - $4 257
       1955 6,167 5,713 - - 454
       1960 11,382 10,866 - - 516
 
       1965 16,610 16,017 - - 593
       1970 32,220 30,256 - 449 1,515
       1975 59,605 56,619 - 622 2,364
       1980 105,841 103,355 - 641 1,845
       1985 184,239 176,958 $3,208 2,203 1,871
 
       1986 197,393 190,741 3,424 160 3,069
       1987 210,736 202,735 3,257 55 4,690
       1988 240,770 229,775 3,384 43 7,568
       1989 264,653 250,195 2,439 34 11,985
       1990 286,653 267,530 4,848 -2,089 16,363
 
       1991 299,286 272,574 5,864 19 20,829
       1992 311,162 280,992 5,852 14 24,303
       1993 323,277 290,905 5,335 10 27,027
       1994 328,271 293,323 4,995 7 29,946
       1995 342,801 304,620 5,490 -129 32,820
       1996 363,741 321,557 6,471 7 35,706
 
Estimates:
       1997 391,834 345,164 6,923 2 39,745
       1998 409,011 357,704 7,295 1 44,011
       1999 430,129 373,747 7,823 1 48,558
       2000 450,155 388,551 8,397 -231 53,439
       2001 475,880 408,374 9,021 (4/) 58,484
 
       2002 502,744 429,009 9,711 (4/) 64,024
       2003 531,463 451,019 10,438 (4/) 70,006
       2004 561,804 474,259 11,230 (4/) 76,315
       2005 595,089 499,912 12,074 (4/) 83,102
       2006 628,904 525,631 13,007 (4/) 90,265

1 Beginning in 1983, includes transfers from general fund of Treasury representing contributions that would have been paid on deemed wage credits for military service in 1957 and later, if such credits were considered to be covered wages.

2 Includes payments (1) in 1947-51 and in 1966 and later, for costs of noncontributory wage credits for military service performed before 1957; (2) in 1971-82, for costs of deemed wage credits for military service performed after 1956; and (3) in 1968 and later, for costs of benefits to certain uninsured persons who attained age 72 before 1968.

3 Net interest includes net profits or losses on marketable investments. Beginning in 1967, administrative expenses are charged currently to the trust fund on an estimated basis, with a final adjustment, including interest, made in the following fiscal year. The amounts of these interest adjustments are included in net interest. For years prior to 1967, a description of the method of accounting for administrative expenses is contained in the 1970 Annual Report. Beginning in October 1973, the figures shown include relatively small amounts of gifts to the fund. Net interest for 1983-86 reflects payments from a borrowing trust fund to a lending trust fund for interest on amounts owed under the interfund borrowing provisions. During 1983-90, interest paid from the trust fund to the general fund on advance tax transfers is reflected. The amount shown for 1985 includes an interest adjustment of $88 million on unnegotiated checks issued before April 1985.

4 Less than $500,000.



Table II.F8.­ Operations of the OASI Trust Fund During Selected Calendar
Years 1940-96 and Estimated Future Operations During Calendar Years 1997-2006,
on the Basis of the Intermediate Set of Assumptions (Cont.)

[In millions]
Calendar
year
Expenditures
Assets
Total Benefit
payments 1/
Adminis-
trative
expenses
Transfers
to Railroad
Retirement
program
Net
increase
during
year
Amount
at end of period

Historical data:
       1940 $62 $35 $26 - $306 $2,031
       1945 304 274 30 - 1,116 7,121
       1950 1,022 961 61 - 1,905 13,721
       1955 5,079 4,968 119 -$7 1,087 21,663
       1960 11,198 10,677 203 318 184 20,324
 
       1965 17,501 16,737 328 436 -890 18,235
       1970 29,848 28,798 471 579 2,371 32,454
       1975 60,395 58,517 896 982 -789 36,987
       1980 107,678 105,082 1,154 1,442 -1,837 22,824
       1985 171,150 167,248 1,592 2,310 2/ 8,725 35,842
 
       1986 181,000 176,813 1,601 2,585 2/ 3,239 39,081
       1987 187,668 183,587 1,524 2,557 23,068 62,149
       1988 200,020 195,454 1,776 2,790 40,750 102,899
       1989 212,489 207,971 1,673 2,845 52,164 155,063
       1990 227,519 222,987 1,563 2,969 59,134 214,197
 
       1991 245,634 240,467 1,792 3,375 53,652 267,849
       1992 259,861 254,883 1,830 3,148 51,301 319,150
       1993 273,104 267,755 1,996 3,353 50,173 369,322
       1994 284,133 279,068 1,645 3,420 44,138 413,460
       1995 297,760 291,630 2,077 4,052 45,041 458,502
       1996 308,217 302,861 1,802 3,554 55,524 514,026
 
Estimates:
       1997 322,019 315,945 2,319 3,755 69,815 583,841
       1998 336,804 330,667 2,358 3,779 72,207 656,047
       1999 353,056 346,845 2,350 3,861 77,073 733,120
       2000 370,338 364,082 2,333 3,923 79,817 812,937
       2001 389,235 382,898 2,364 3,973 86,645 899,582
 
       2002 409,454 403,007 2,417 4,030 93,291 992,873
       2003 430,312 423,729 2,482 4,102 101,151 1,094,024
       2004 452,741 445,997 2,552 4,191 109,063 1,203,087
       2005 476,174 469,293 2,624 4,256 118,915 1,322,002
       2006 501,116 494,080 2,698 4,338 127,788 1,449,790

1 Beginning in 1966, includes payments for vocational rehabilitation services furnished to disabled persons receiving benefits because of their disabilities. Beginning in 1983, amounts are reduced by amount of reimbursement for unnegotiated benefit checks.

2 Reflects offset for repayment from the OASI Trust Fund of amounts borrowed from the DI and HI Trust Funds in 1982. The amount repaid in 1985 was $4,364 million; in 1986, the amount was $13,155 million.

Note: Totals do not necessarily equal the sums of rounded components.



Table II.F9.­ Operations of the DI Trust Fund During Selected Fiscal Years 1960-96 and Estimated Future Operations During Fiscal Years 1997-2006, on the Basis of the Intermediate Set of Assumptions

[In millions]
Fiscal
year 1/
Income
Total Net contri-
butions 2/
Income
from taxa-
tion of
benefits
Payments
from the
general fund of
the Treasury 3/
Net
interest 4/

Historical data:
       1960 $1,034 $987 - - $47
       1965 1,237 1,175 - - 62
       1970 4,380 4,141 - $16 223
       1975 7,920 7,356 - 52 512
       1980 17,376 16,805 - 118 453
       1985 17,984 16,876 $217 - 891
 
       1986 20,130 18,139 229 1,017 746
       1987 20,047 19,324 5/ -16 - 738
       1988 22.369 21,736 56 - 577
       1989 24,479 23,694 135 - 650
       1990 28,215 27,291 158 - 766
 
       1991 29,322 28,953 131 -775 1,014
       1992 31,168 29,871 218 - 1,080
       1993 32,056 30,822 268 - 966
       1994 34,044 33,041 305 - 699
       1995 70,209 67,987 335 - 1,888
       1996 59,220 56,571 370 -203 2,482
 
Estimates:
       1997 59,656 55,743 398 - 3,515
       1998 60,852 56,185 434 - 4,233
       1999 64,246 58,907 476 - 4,862
       2000 70,595 64,585 521 - 5,489
       2001 75,443 68,621 574 -3 6,250
 
       2002 79,755 72,113 637 - 7,005
       2003 84,091 75,695 705 - 7,692
       2004 88,459 79,404 783 - 8,271
       2005 93,945 84,390 870 - 8,684
       2006 98,247 88,332 966 - 8,949

1 Under the Congressional Budget Act of 1974 (Public Law 93-344), fiscal years 1977 and later consist of the 12 months ending on September 30 of each year. Fiscal years prior to 1977 consisted of the 12 months ending on June 30 of each year.

2 Beginning in 1983, includes transfers from general fund of Treasury representing contributions that would have been paid on deemed wage credits for military service in 1957 and later, if such credits were considered to be covered wages.

3 Includes payments (1) in 1967 and later, for costs of noncontributory wage credits for military service performed before 1957; and (2) in 1972-83, for costs of deemed wage credits for military service performed after 1956.

4 Net interest includes net profits or losses on marketable investments. Beginning in 1967, administrative expenses are charged currently to the trust fund on an estimated basis, with a final adjustment, including interest, made in the following fiscal year. The amounts of these interest adjustments are included in net interest. For years prior to 1967, a description of the method of accounting for administrative expenses is contained in the 1970 Annual Report. Beginning in July 1974, the figures shown include relatively small amounts of gifts to the fund. Net interest for 1983-86 reflects payments from a borrowing trust fund to a lending trust fund for interest on amounts owed under the interfund borrowing provisions. During 1983-91, interest paid from the trust fund to the general fund on advance tax transfers is reflected. The amount shown for 1985 includes an interest adjustment of $14.8 million on unnegotiated checks issued before April 1985.

5 Reflects $195 million in transfers from the DI Trust Fund to the general fund of the Treasury to correct estimated amounts transferred for calendar years 1984 and 1985.



Table II.F9.­ Operations of the DI Trust Fund During Selected Fiscal Years 1960-96 and Estimated Future Operations During Fiscal Years 1997-2006, on the Basis of the Intermediate Set of Assumptions (Cont.)

[In millions]
Fiscal
year
Expenditures
Assets
Total Benefit
payments 1/
Adminis-
trative
expenses
Transfers
to Railroad
Retirement
program
Net
increase
during
year
Amount
at end of period

Historical data:
       1960 $533 $528 $32 -$27 $501 $2,167
       1965 1,495 1,392 79 24 -257 2,007
       1970 2,954 2,795 149 10 1,426 5,104
       1975 7,982 7,701 253 29 -62 8,191
       1980 15,320 14,998 334 -12 2,056 7,680
       1985 19,294 18,648 603 43 2/ 1,230 5,873
 
       1986 20,196 19,529 600 68 2/ 2,475 8,348
       1987 21,222 20,427 738 57 -1,175 7,173
       1988 22,269 21,405 803 61 100 7,273
       1989 23,389 22,550 751 88 1,090 8,363
       1990 25,124 24,327 717 80 3,091 11,455
 
       1991 27,780 26,909 789 82 1,543 12,997
       1992 31,285 30,382 845 58 -116 12,881
       1993 34,632 33,615 935 83 -2,576 10,305
       1994 37,979 36,851 1,022 106 -3,935 6,370
       1995 41,374 40,234 1,072 68 28,835 35,206
       1996 44,343 43,266 1,074 2 14,877 50,083
 
Estimates:
       1997 48,108 46,647 1,400 62 11,548 61,631
       1998 51,348 49,975 1,276 96 9,504 71,135
       1999 55,227 53,886 1,223 118 9,018 80,153
       2000 59,168 57,682 1,352 134 11,427 91,581
       2001 63,776 62,202 1,435 139 11,666 103,247
 
       2002 69,068 67,400 1,518 150 10,687 113,934
       2003 74,704 72,934 1,605 165 9,387 123,321
       2004 81,176 79,296 1,697 183 7,283 130,604
       2005 88,190 86,200 1,794 196 5,755 136,359
       2006 95,618 93,512 1,895 211 2,629 138,988

1 Beginning in 1967, includes payments for vocational rehabilitation services furnished to disabled persons receiving benefits because of their disabilities. Beginning in 1983, amounts are reduced by amount of reimbursement for unnegotiated benefit checks.

2 Reflects repayment from the OASI Trust Fund of amounts borrowed from the DI Trust Fund in 1982. The amount repaid in 1985 was $2,540 million; in 1986, the amount was $2,541 million.

Note: Totals do not necessarily equal the sums of rounded components.



Table II.F10.­ Operations of the DI Trust Fund During Selected Calendar
Years 1960-96 and Estimated Future Operations During Calendar Years 1997-2006,
on the Basis of the Intermediate Set of Assumptions

[In millions]
Calendar
year
Income
Total Net contri-
butions 1/
Income
from taxa-
tion of
benefits
Payments
from the
general fund of
the Treasury 2/
Net
interest 3/

Historical data:
       1960 $1,063 $1,010 - - $53
       1965 1,247 1,188 - - 59
       1970 4,774 4,481 - $16 277
       1975 8,035 7,444 - 90 502
       1980 13,871 13,255 - 130 485
       1985 19,301 17,191 $222 1,017 870
 
       1986 19,439 18,399 238 - 803
       1987 20,303 19,691 4/ -36 - 648
       1988 22,699 22,039 61 - 600
       1989 24,795 23,993 95 - 707
       1990 28,791 28,539 144 -775 883
 
       1991 30,390 29,137 190 - 1,063
       1992 31,430 30,136 232 - 1,062
       1993 32,301 31,185 281 - 835
       1994 52,841 51,373 311 - 1,157
       1995 56,696 54,401 341 -203 2,158
       1996 60,710 57,325 373 - 3,012
 
Estimates:
       1997 59,500 55,184 410 - 3,906
       1998 61,820 56,823 443 - 4,554
       1999 65,041 59,394 487 - 5,160
       2000 72,156 65,764 533 -3 5,863
       2001 76,580 69,356 589 - 6,635
 
       2002 80,854 72,845 652 - 7,357
       2003 85,308 76,588 723 - 7,998
       2004 89,835 80,538 804 - 8,493
       2005 94,625 84,893 893 - 8,839
       2006 99,259 89,264 990 - 9,005

1 Beginning in 1983, includes transfers from general fund of Treasury representing contributions that would have been paid on deemed wage credits for military service in 1957 and later, if such credits were considered to be covered wages.

2 Includes payments (1) in 1966 and later, for costs of noncontributory wage credits for military service performed before 1957; and (2) in 1971-82, for costs of deemed wage credits for military service performed after 1956.

3 Net interest includes net profits or losses on marketable investments. Beginning in 1967, administrative expenses are charged currently to the trust fund on an estimated basis, with a final adjustment, including interest, made in the following fiscal year. The amounts of these interest adjustments are included in net interest. For years prior to 1967, a description of the method of accounting for administrative expenses is contained in the 1970 Annual Report. Beginning in July 1974, the figures shown include relatively small amounts of gifts to the fund. Net interest for 1983-86 reflects payments from a borrowing trust fund to a lending trust fund for interest on amounts owed under the interfund borrowing provisions. During 1983-90, interest paid from the trust fund to the general fund on advance tax transfers is reflected. The amount shown for 1985 includes an interest adjustment of $14.8 million on unnegotiated checks issued before April 1985.

4 Reflects $195 million in transfers from the DI Trust Fund to the general fund of the Treasury to correct estimated amounts transferred for calendar years 1984 and 1985.



Table II.F10.­ Operations of the DI Trust Fund During Selected Calendar
Years 1960-96 and Estimated Future Operations During Calendar Years 1997-2006,
on the Basis of the Intermediate Set of Assumptions (Cont.)

[In millions]
Calendar
year
Expenditures
Assets
Total Benefit
payments 1/
Adminis-
trative
expenses
Transfers
to Railroad
Retirement
program
Net
increase
during
year
Amount
at end of period

Historical data:
       1960 $600 $568 $36 -$5 $464 $2,289
       1965 1,687 1,573 90 24 -440 1,606
       1970 3,259 3,085 164 10 1,514 5,614
       1975 8,790 8,505 256 29 -754 7,354
       1980 15,872 15,515 368 -12 -2,001 3,629
       1985 19,478 18,827 608 43 2/ 2,363 6,321
 
       1986 20,522 19,853 600 68 2/ 1,459 7,780
       1987 21,425 20,519 849 57 -1,122 6,658
       1988 22,494 21,695 737 61 206 6,864
       1989 23,753 22,911 754 88 1,041 7,905
       1990 25,616 24,829 707 80 3,174 11,079
 
       1991 28,571 27,695 794 82 1,819 12,898
       1992 32,004 31,112 834 58 -574 12,324
       1993 35,662 34,613 966 83 -3,361 8,963
       1994 38,879 37,744 1,029 106 13,962 22,925
       1995 42,055 40,923 1,064 68 14,641 37,566
       1996 45,351 44,189 1,160 2 15,359 52,924
 
Estimates:
       1997 48,823 47,397 1,364 62 10,677 63,601
       1998 52,271 50,910 1,265 96 9,548 73,150
       1999 56,206 54,838 1,251 118 8,835 81,985
       2000 60,167 58,664 1,370 134 11,989 93,974
       2001 65,021 63,429 1,453 139 11,559 105,533
 
       2002 70,401 68,714 1,536 150 10,453 115,986
       2003 76,212 74,422 1,625 165 9,097 125,082
       2004 82,858 80,957 1,718 183 6,977 132,059
       2005 89,995 87,983 1,815 196 4,630 136,690
       2006 97,497 95,369 1,918 211 1,762 138,451

1 Beginning in 1966, includes payments for vocational rehabilitation services furnished to disabled persons receiving benefits because of their disabilities. Beginning in 1983, amounts are reduced by amount of reimbursement for unnegotiated benefit checks.

2 Reflects repayment from the OASI Trust Fund of amounts borrowed from the DI Trust Fund in 1982. The amount repaid in 1985 was $2,540 million; in 1986, the amount was $2,541 million.

Note: Totals do not necessarily equal the sums of rounded components.



Table II.F11.­ Operations of the OASI and DI Trust Funds, Combined, During Selected Fiscal Years 1960-96 and Estimated Future Operations During Fiscal Years 1997-2006,
on the Basis of the Intermediate Set of Assumptions

[In millions]
Fiscal year 1/ Income
Total Net contri-
butions 2/
Income
from taxa-
tion of
benefits
Payments
from the
general fund of
the Treasury 3/
Net
interest 4/

Historical data:
       1960 $11,394 $10,830 - - $564
       1965 17,681 17,032 - - 648
       1970 36,127 34,096 - $458 1,572
       1975 66,677 63,374 - 499 2,804
       1980 117,427 114,413 - 675 2,339
       1985 197,865 192,181 $3,368 105 2,211
 
       1986 215,461 205,146 3,558 3,310 3,447
       1987 226,893 218,878 3,307 69 4,638
       1988 258,090 248,145 3,390 55 6,500
       1989 284,936 270,811 3,772 43 10,310
       1990 306,822 288,797 3,081 34 14,909
 
       1991 322,611 299,794 5,921 -2,864 19,759
       1992 338,270 308,377 6,237 19 23,637
       1993 351,354 318,391 6,161 14 26,788
       1994 376,307 341,438 5,656 10 29,203
       1995 396,276 357,516 5,449 7 33,304
       1996 416,064 373,728 6,155 -327 36,508
 
Estimates:
       1997 444,424 395,966 7,198 3 41,258
       1998 463,598 409,880 7,632 2 46,085
       1999 488,952 429,688 8,166 1 51,097
       2000 516,865 451,599 8,773 1 56,492
       2001 543,997 472,671 9,437 -234 62,124
 
       2002 575,119 496,747 10,175 (5/) 68,196
       2003 607,071 521,464 10,960 (5/) 74,646
       2004 640,200 546,999 11,813 (5/) 81,388
       2005 682,379 581,333 12,731 (5/) 88,315
       2006 717,814 608,488 13,737 (5/) 95,589

1 Under the Congressional Budget Act of 1974 (Public Law 93-344), fiscal years 1977 and later consist of the 12 months ending on September 30 of each year. Fiscal years prior to 1977 consisted of the 12 months ending on June 30 of each year.

2 Beginning in 1983, includes transfers from general fund of Treasury representing contributions that would have been paid on deemed wage credits for military service in 1957 and later, if such credits were considered to be covered wages.

3 Includes payments (1) in 1947-52 and in 1967 and later, for costs of noncontributory wage credits for military service performed before 1957; (2) in 1972-83, for costs of deemed wage credits for military service performed after 1956; and (3) in 1969 and later, for costs of benefits to certain uninsured persons who attained age 72 before 1968.

4 Net interest includes net profits or losses on marketable investments. Beginning in 1967, administrative expenses are charged currently to the trust funds on an estimated basis, with a final adjustment, including interest, made in the following fiscal year. The amounts of these interest adjustments are included in net interest. For years prior to 1967, a description of the method of accounting for administrative expenses is contained in the 1970 Annual Report. Beginning in October 1973, the figures shown include relatively small amounts of gifts to the funds. Net interest for 1983-86 reflects payments from a borrowing trust fund to a lending trust fund for interest on amounts owed under the interfund borrowing provisions. During 1983-91, interest paid from the trust funds to the general fund on advance tax transfers is reflected. The amounts shown for 1985 and 1986 include interest adjustments of $91.3 million and $11.5 million, respectively, on unnegotiated checks issued before April 1985.

5 Less than $500,000.



Table II.F11.­ Operations of the OASI and DI Trust Funds, Combined, During Selected Fiscal Years 1960-96 and Estimated Future Operations During Fiscal Years 1997-2006,
on the Basis of the Intermediate Set of Assumptions (Cont.)

[In millions]
Fiscal
year
Expenditures
Assets
Total Benefit
payments 1/
Adminis-
trative
expenses
Transfers
to Railroad
Retirement
program
Net
increase
during
year
Amount
at end of period

Historical data:
       1960 $11,606 $10,798 $234 $574 -$212 $22,996
       1965 17,456 16,618 379 459 224 22,187
       1970 30,275 29,063 623 589 5,851 37,720
       1975 64,658 62,547 1,101 1,010 2,018 48,138
       1980 118,548 115,624 1,494 1,430 -1,121 32,246
       1985 188,504 183,959 2,192 2,353 2/ 7,538 39,750
 
       1986 198,730 193,869 2,209 2,653 2/ 6,117 45,867
       1987 207,323 202,430 2,279 2,614 19,570 65,437
       1988 219,290 213,907 2,532 2,851 38,800 104,237
       1989 232,491 227,150 2,407 2,934 52,445 156,682
       1990 248,605 243,275 2,280 3,049 58,217 214,900
 
       1991 269,096 263,104 2,535 3,457 53,515 268,415
       1992 287,524 281,650 2,668 3,206 50,746 319,161
       1993 304,566 298,176 2,955 3,435 46,788 365,949
       1994 319,551 313,129 2,896 3,526 56,757 422,706
       1995 335,830 328,841 2,870 4,120 60,446 483,152
       1996 349,654 343,235 2,862 3,556 66,410 549,562
 
Estimates:
       1997 366,773 359,232 3,724 3,817 77,651 627,213
       1998 384,417 376,907 3,634 3,875 79,181 706,394
       1999 404,186 396,628 3,579 3,979 84,766 791,161
       2000 425,130 417,393 3,679 4,057 91,735 882,896
       2001 448,211 440,311 3,788 4,112 95,786 978,682
 
       2002 473,491 465,390 3,921 4,180 101,628 1,080,310
       2003 499,800 491,462 4,072 4,267 107,270 1,187,580
       2004 528,248 519,640 4,233 4,374 111,952 1,299,532
       2005 558,444 549,589 4,401 4,453 123,936 1,423,468
       2006 590,446 581,321 4,577 4,548 127,368 1,550,836

1 Beginning in 1967, includes payments for vocational rehabilitation services furnished to disabled persons receiving benefits because of their disabilities. Beginning in 1983, amounts are reduced by amount of reimbursement for unnegotiated benefit checks.

2 Reflects offset for repayment from the OASI Trust Fund of amounts borrowed from the HI Trust Fund in 1982. The amount repaid in 1985 was $1,824 million; in 1986, the amount was $10,613 million.

Note: Totals do not necessarily equal the sums of rounded components.



Table II.F12.­ Operations of the OASI and DI Trust Funds, Combined, During Selected Calendar Years 1960-96 and Estimated Future Operations During Calendar
Years 1997-2006, on the Basis of the Intermediate Set of Assumptions

[In millions]
Calendar
year
Income
Total Net contri-
butions 1/
Income
from taxa-
tion of
benefits
Payments
from the
general fund of
the Treasury 2/
Net
interest 3/

Historical data:
       1960 $12,445 $11,876 - - $569
       1965 17,857 17,205 - - 651
       1970 36,993 34,737 - $465 1,791
       1975 67,640 64,259 - 515 2,866
       1980 119,712 116,711 - 670 2,330
       1985 203,540 194,149 $3,430 3,220 2,741
 
       1986 216,833 209,140 3,662 160 3,871
       1987 231,039 222,425 3,221 55 5,338
       1988 263,469 251,814 3,445 43 8,168
       1989 289,448 274,189 2,534 34 12,692
       1990 315,443 296,070 4,992 -2,864 17,245
 
       1991 329,676 301,711 6,054 19 21,892
       1992 342,591 311,128 6,084 14 25,365
       1993 355,578 322,090 5,616 10 27,862
       1994 381,111 344,695 5,306 7 31,103
       1995 399,497 359,021 5,831 -332 34,977
       1996 424,451 378,881 6,844 7 38,718
 
Estimates:
       1997 451,334 400,348 7,334 2 43,651
       1998 470,830 414,527 7,738 1 48,565
       1999 495,170 433,141 8,310 1 53,718
       2000 522,311 454,315 8,929 -234 59,302
       2001 552,459 477,730 9,610 (4/) 65,119
 
       2002 583,599 501,854 10,364 (4/) 71,381
       2003 616,772 527,607 11,161 (4/) 78,003
       2004 651,639 554,797 12,034 (4/) 84,808
       2005 689,714 584,805 12,967 (4/) 91,942
       2006 728,163 614,895 13,998 (4/) 99,270

1 Beginning in 1983, includes transfers from general fund of Treasury representing contributions that would have been paid on deemed wage credits for military service in 1957 and later, if such credits were considered to be covered wages.

2 Includes payments (1) in 1947-51 and in 1966 and later, for costs of noncontributory wage credits for military service performed before 1957; (2) in 1971-82, for costs of deemed wage credits for military service performed after 1956; and (3) in 1968 and later, for costs of benefits to certain uninsured persons who attained age 72 before 1968.

3 Net interest includes net profits or losses on marketable investments. Beginning in 1967, administrative expenses are charged currently to the trust funds on an estimated basis, with a final adjustment, including interest, made in the following fiscal year. The amounts of these interest adjustments are included in net interest. For years prior to 1967, a description of the method of accounti ng for administrative expenses is contained in the 1970 Annual Report. Beginning in October 1973, the figures shown include relatively small amounts of gifts to the funds. Net interest for 1983-86 reflects payments from a borrowing trust fund to a lending trust fund for interest on amounts owed under the interfund borrowing provisions. During 1983-90, interest paid from the trust funds to the general fund on advance tax transfers is reflected. The amount shown for 1985 includes an interest adjustment of $102.8 million on unnegotiated checks issued before April 1985.

4 Less than $500,000.



Table II.F12.­ Operations of the OASI and DI Trust Funds, Combined, During Selected Calendar Years 1960-96 and Estimated Future Operations During Calendar
Years 1997-2006, on the Basis of the Intermediate Set of Assumptions (Cont.)

[In millions]
Calendar
year
Expenditures
Assets
Total Benefit
payments 1/
Adminis-
trative
expenses
Transfers
to Railroad
Retirement
program
Net
increase
during
year
Amount
at end of period

Historical data:
       1960 $11,798 $11,245 $240 $314 $647 $22,613
       1965 19,187 18,311 418 459 -1,331 19,841
       1970 33,108 31,884 635 589 3,886 38,068
       1975 69,184 67,022 1,152 1,010 -1,544 44,342
       1980 123,550 120,598 1,522 1,430 -3,838 26,453
       1985 190,628 186,075 2,200 2,353 2/ 11,088 42,163
 
       1986 201,522 196,667 2,202 2,653 2/ 4,698 46,861
       1987 209,093 204,106 2,373 2,614 21,946 68,807
       1988 222,514 217,149 2,513 2,851 40,955 109,762
       1989 236,242 230,882 2,427 2,934 53,206 162,968
       1990 253,135 247,816 2,270 3,049 62,309 225,277
 
       1991 274,205 268,162 2,587 3,457 55,471 280,747
       1992 291,865 285,995 2,664 3,206 50,726 331,473
       1993 308,766 302,368 2,963 3,435 46,812 378,285
       1994 323,011 316,812 2,674 3,526 58,100 436,385
       1995 339,815 332,554 3,141 4,120 59,683 496,068
       1996 353,569 347,050 2,962 3,556 70,883 566,950
 
Estimates:
       1997 370,842 363,342 3,684 3,817 80,492 647,442
       1998 389,075 381,577 3,623 3,875 81,755 729,197
       1999 409,262 401,683 3,600 3,979 85,908 815,105
       2000 430,506 422,746 3,703 4,057 91,806 906,911
       2001 454,255 446,326 3,817 4,112 98,204 1,005,114
 
       2002 479,855 471,721 3,954 4,180 103,744 1,108,858
       2003 506,524 498,150 4,107 4,267 110,248 1,219,106
       2004 535,599 526,955 4,270 4,374 116,040 1,335,146
       2005 566,168 557,276 4,439 4,453 123,545 1,458,691
       2006 598,613 589,449 4,617 4,548 129,549 1,588,241

1 Beginning in 1966, includes payments for vocational rehabilitation services furnished to disabled persons receiving benefits because of their disabilities. Beginning in 1983, amounts are reduced by amount of reimbursement for unnegotiated benefit checks.

2 Reflects offset for repayment from the OASI Trust Fund of amounts borrowed from the HI Trust Fund in 1982. The amount repaid in 1985 was $1,824 million; in 1986, the amount was $10,613 million.

Note: Totals do not necessarily equal the sums of rounded components.



2. Long-Range Actuarial Status of the Trust Funds

Historically, the actuarial balance (described earlier in this section) has been used as the principal measure of the actuarial status of the OASDI program. Actuarial balances have traditionally been computed for the 25-year valuation period encompassing 1997-2021, the 50-year valuation period covering 1997-2046, and the entire long-range (75-year) valuation period, 1997-2071.

Beginning with the 1991 Annual Report, actuarial balances have also been computed based on the intermediate (alternative II) assumptions for valuation periods that are 10 years, 11 years, and continuing through 75 years in length. This series of actuarial balances provides the basis for the test of long-range close actuarial balance, described earlier in this section.

In addition to these actuarial balances, other indicators of the financial condition of the program are shown in this report. One is the series of projected annual balances (that is, the differences between the projected annual income rates and annual cost rates), with particular attention being paid to the level of the annual balances at the end of the long-range period and the time at which the annual balances may change from positive to negative values. Another is the series of projected trust fund ratios, with particular attention being paid to the amount and year of maximum fund ratio accumulation and to the year of exhaustion of the funds. These additional indicators are defined in the introduction to this section.

The estimates are sensitive to changes in the underlying economic and demographic assumptions. The degree of sensitivity, however, varies considerably among the various assumptions. For example, variations in assumed fertility rates have little effect on the estimates for the early years, because almost all of the covered workers and beneficiaries projected for the early years were born prior to the start of the projection period. However, lower fertility rates have large impacts on the actuarial balance in the later years. Variations in economic factors, such as interest rates and increases in wages and prices, have significant effects on the estimates for the short term, as well as for the long term. In general, the degree of confidence that can be placed in the assumptions and estimates is greater for the earlier years than for the later years. Nonetheless, even for the earlier years, the estimates are only an indication of the expected trend and general range of future program experience. Section II.G contains a more detailed discussion of the effects on the estimates of varying certain economic and demographic assumptions.

a. Annual Income Rates, Cost Rates, and Balances

Table II.F13 presents a comparison of the estimated annual income rates and cost rates by trust fund and alternative. As previously mentioned, the annual income rate excludes net interest income, as well as certain other transfers from the general fund of the Treasury. Detailed long-range projections of trust fund operations, in nominal dollar amounts, are shown in appendix B.

The projections for OASDI under the intermediate alternative II assumptions show income rates that increase slowly and steadily due to the combination of the flat payroll tax rate and the gradually increasing effect of the taxation of benefits. The pattern followed by the cost rates is much different. Costs as a percent of taxable payroll are projected to rise slowly for the next 13 years and then to increase rather rapidly for about the next 20 years (through 2030) as the "baby-boom" generation reaches retirement age. Cost rates continue rising slowly through 2036 and then decline slightly for the next 6 years as the "baby-boom" generation ages and the relatively small birth cohorts of the late 1970s reach retirement age. Thereafter, cost rates rise steadily, but slowly, reflecting projected increases in life expectancy. The cost rates during the third 25-year subperiod rise to a level over 19 percent of taxable payroll under the intermediate alternative II assumptions. The income rate during the third 25-year subperiod is just over 13 percent of taxable payroll under alternative II.

Projected income rates under the low cost and high cost sets of assumptions (alternatives I and III, respectively) are very similar to those projected for alternative II as they are largely a reflection of the tax rates specified in the law. OASDI combined cost rates for alternatives I and III differ significantly in size from those projected for alternative II, but follow generally similar patterns. For the low cost alternative I, cost rates decline somewhat for about the first 10 years, and then rise, reaching the current level around 2013 and a peak of 14.78 percent of payroll in 2032. Thereafter, cost rates decline gradually, reaching a level of 13.45 percent of payroll in 2071. For the high cost alternative III, cost rates rise throughout the 75-year period, but at a relatively faster pace during the next 5 years due to the assumed economic recessions, and between 2010 and 2030 because of the aging of the "baby-boom" generation. During the third 25-year subperiod, the projected cost rate continues rising and reaches 28.91 percent of payroll in 2071.

The projected pattern of the OASDI annual balances (that is, the difference between the income rates and the cost rates) is important in the analysis of the financial condition of the program. Under the alternative II assumptions the annual balances are positive for 15 years (through 2011) and are negative thereafter. This annual deficit rises rapidly reaching 2 percent of taxable payroll by 2020 and continues rising thereafter, to a level of 5.90 percent of taxable payroll for 2071.

Under alternative I, projected OASDI annual balances are positive for 22 years (through 2018), and thereafter are negative. Deficits under alternative I rise to a peak of 1.80 percent of taxable payroll in 2032, but diminish thereafter, as the effect of the "baby-boom" generation diminishes and the assumed higher fertility rates increase the work force. Deficits under alternative I diminish to 0.40 percent of payroll by 2071. Under the more pessimistic alternative III, however, the OASDI actuarial balance is projected to be positive for only 4 years (through 2000) and to be negative thereafter, reaching deficits of 4 percent of payroll by 2020, over 10 percent by 2050, and over 15 percent of payroll by 2071.


Table II.F13.­ Comparison of Estimated Income Rates and Cost Rates by
Trust Fund and Alternative, Calendar Years 1997-2075

[As a percentage of taxable payroll]
Calendar
year
OASI
DI
Combined
Income
rate
Cost
rate
Balance Income
rate
Cost
rate
Balance Income
rate
Cost
rate
Balance

Intermediate:
       1997 10.91 9.97 0.94 1.71 1.51 0.20 12.63 11.49 1.14
       1998 10.92 10.05 .86 1.71 1.56 .15 12.63 11.61 1.02
       1999 10.92 10.08 .84 1.71 1.60 .11 12.64 11.68 .95
       2000 10.82 10.09 .74 1.81 1.64 .18 12.64 11.73 .91
       2001 10.83 10.08 .75 1.82 1.68 .13 12.65 11.77 .88
       2002 10.84 10.09 .75 1.82 1.74 .08 12.66 11.83 .83
       2003 10.84 10.09 .76 1.82 1.79 .03 12.66 11.87 .79
       2004 10.85 10.09 .77 1.82 1.85 -.03 12.67 11.93 .74
       2005 10.86 10.07 .78 1.82 1.90 -.09 12.67 11.98 .70
       2006 10.86 10.07 .79 1.82 1.96 -.14 12.68 12.03 .65
 
       2010 10.91 10.34 .57 1.82 2.14 -.31 12.73 12.48 .26
       2015 10.99 11.38 -.39 1.83 2.24 -.41 12.82 13.62 -.80
       2020 11.09 12.84 -1.75 1.83 2.30 -.47 12.92 15.14 -2.22
       2025 11.18 14.13 -2.96 1.83 2.39 -.56 13.01 16.53 -3.51
       2030 11.25 15.07 -3.82 1.84 2.40 -.56 13.09 17.47 -4.38
       2035 11.30 15.49 -4.19 1.84 2.35 -.51 13.14 17.84 -4.70
       2040 11.32 15.42 -4.10 1.84 2.36 -.52 13.16 17.78 -4.61
       2045 11.34 15.32 -3.98 1.84 2.46 -.62 13.18 17.78 -4.60
       2050 11.37 15.45 -4.08 1.84 2.52 -.68 13.21 17.97 -4.76
       2055 11.40 15.80 -4.40 1.85 2.55 -.71 13.25 18.36 -5.11
       2060 11.43 16.20 -4.77 1.85 2.53 -.68 13.28 18.72 -5.45
       2065 11.46 16.46 -5.00 1.85 2.51 -.67 13.30 18.97 -5.67
       2070 11.48 16.65 -5.17 1.85 2.53 -.69 13.32 19.18 -5.86
       2075 11.49 16.85 -5.36 1.85 2.57 -.72 13.34 19.42 -6.07
 
Low Cost:
       1997 10.91 9.90 1.01 1.71 1.48 0.23 12.63 11.38 1.24
       1998 10.91 9.87 1.04 1.71 1.49 .22 12.63 11.36 1.26
       1999 10.92 9.80 1.12 1.71 1.50 .21 12.63 11.30 1.33
       2000 10.79 9.71 1.09 1.81 1.51 .31 12.61 11.21 1.40
       2001 10.82 9.61 1.21 1.81 1.52 .29 12.64 11.13 1.50
       2002 10.83 9.52 1.31 1.81 1.53 .28 12.64 11.05 1.59
       2003 10.83 9.41 1.41 1.81 1.55 .26 12.64 10.97 1.68
       2004 10.83 9.34 1.49 1.82 1.58 .24 12.65 10.92 1.73
       2005 10.83 9.26 1.58 1.82 1.60 .21 12.65 10.86 1.79
       2006 10.84 9.19 1.65 1.82 1.63 .19 12.65 10.82 1.84
 
       2010 10.87 9.33 1.54 1.82 1.69 .13 12.69 11.02 1.67
       2015 10.94 10.24 .70 1.82 1.71 .11 12.76 11.95 .81
       2020 11.02 11.45 -.44 1.82 1.73 .10 12.84 13.18 -.34
       2025 11.09 12.43 -1.35 1.82 1.77 .06 12.91 14.20 -1.29
       2030 11.14 12.98 -1.84 1.83 1.75 .08 12.97 14.73 -1.76
       2035 11.17 13.01 -1.84 1.83 1.69 .14 12.99 14.70 -1.70
       2040 11.17 12.60 -1.43 1.83 1.67 .15 13.00 14.27 -1.27
       2045 11.17 12.22 -1.04 1.83 1.72 .11 13.00 13.93 -.93
       2050 11.18 12.03 -.85 1.83 1.73 .10 13.01 13.76 -.75
       2055 11.19 12.02 -.83 1.83 1.73 .10 13.02 13.75 -.72
       2060 11.20 12.00 -.79 1.83 1.70 .13 13.03 13.69 -.66
       2065 11.21 11.87 -.67 1.83 1.69 .14 13.04 13.56 -.52
       2070 11.21 11.75 -.55 1.83 1.70 .13 13.04 13.46 -.41
       2075 11.21 11.72 -.51 1.83 1.72 .11 13.05 13.44 -.40
 
High Cost:
       1997 10.92 10.03 .88 1.71 1.55 .17 12.63 11.58 1.05
       1998 10.93 10.43 .50 1.71 1.67 .05 12.64 12.09 .55
       1999 10.93 10.32 .61 1.71 1.72 -.01 12.64 12.04 .60
       2000 10.86 10.44 .42 1.82 1.80 .02 12.67 12.24 .44
       2001 10.85 10.99 -.13 1.82 1.97 -.15 12.67 12.96 -.28
       2002 10.86 10.97 -.11 1.82 2.04 -.22 12.68 13.01 -.33
       2003 10.87 10.95 -.08 1.82 2.11 -.29 12.69 13.06 -.37
       2004 10.87 10.95 -.07 1.82 2.20 -.37 12.69 13.14 -.45
       2005 10.88 10.99 -.11 1.82 2.29 -.46 12.70 13.27 -.57
       2006 10.89 11.05 -.16 1.82 2.37 -.55 12.71 13.42 -.71
 
       2010 10.95 11.46 -.51 1.83 2.67 -.83 12.78 14.12 -1.34
       2015 11.05 12.66 -1.61 1.84 2.83 -.99 12.89 15.49 -2.60
       2020 11.17 14.42 -3.25 1.84 2.96 -1.12 13.01 17.38 -4.37
       2025 11.29 16.13 -4.85 1.85 3.12 -1.27 13.13 19.25 -6.12
       2030 11.39 17.62 -6.23 1.85 3.18 -1.32 13.24 20.79 -7.55
       2035 11.47 18.65 -7.18 1.85 3.16 -1.30 13.33 21.81 -8.49
       2040 11.53 19.21 -7.68 1.86 3.22 -1.36 13.39 22.44 -9.05
       2045 11.58 19.72 -8.14 1.86 3.43 -1.57 13.44 23.15 -9.71
       2050 11.64 20.50 -8.86 1.87 3.58 -1.71 13.50 24.07 -10.57
       2055 11.71 21.61 -9.89 1.87 3.68 -1.81 13.58 25.29 -11.71
       2060 11.79 22.87 -11.08 1.87 3.67 -1.80 13.66 26.55 -12.88
       2065 11.87 24.02 -12.15 1.87 3.66 -1.79 13.74 27.68 -13.94
       2070 11.93 25.02 -13.09 1.87 3.69 -1.82 13.80 28.71 -14.90
       2075 11.99 25.94 -13.95 1.87 3.74 -1.87 13.86 29.68 -15.81

Notes:
1. The income rate excludes interest income and certain transfers from the general fund of the Treasury.
2. Totals do not necessarily equal the sums of rounded components.


Also of interest are the long-range financial conditions of the separate OASI and DI programs. Annual balances under alternative II remain positive through 2013 for the OASI program, but only through 2003 for the DI program.

Figure II.F3 shows in graphical form the patterns of the OASDI annual income rates and cost rates. The income rates are shown only for alternative II in order to simplify the graphical presentation and because, as shown in table II.F13, the variation in the income rates by alternative is very small. The OASDI long-range summarized income rates for alternatives I and III, for the 75-year valuation period, differ by less than 0.3 percent of taxable payroll. By 2071, the annual income rates under alternatives I and III differ by less than 0.8 percent of taxable payroll. Only small fluctuations are projected in the income rate, as the rate of income from taxation of benefits varies only slightly, for each alternative, reflecting changes in the cost rate and the fact that benefit-taxation threshold amounts are not indexed.

The patterns of the annual balances are indicated in figure II.F3. For each alternative, the magnitude of each of the positive balances in the early years, as a percent of taxable payroll, is represented by the distance between the appropriate cost-rate curve and the income-rate curve above it. The magnitude of each of the deficits in subsequent years is represented by the distance between the appropriate cost-rate curve and the income-rate curve below it.

In the future, the cost of the OASDI program, as a percent of taxable payroll, will not necessarily be within the range encompassed by alternatives I and III. Nonetheless, because alternatives I and III define a reasonably wide range of economic and demographic conditions, the resulting estimates delineate a reasonable range for future program costs.


Figure II.F3.­ Estimated OASDI Income Rates and Cost Rates
by Alternative, Calendar Years 1985-2075

[As a percentage of taxable payroll]
 


b. Summarized Income Rates, Cost Rates, and Balances

Summarized values for the full 75-year period are useful in analyzing the long-range financial condition of the program under present law and the long-range financial effects of proposed modifications to the law. In order to focus on the full 75-year period as well as on broad patterns through the period, tables II.F14 and II.F15 summarize, on a present-value basis, the projected annual figures presented in the previous table for various periods within the overall 75-year projection period.

Table II.F14 shows rates on a present-value basis summarized for each of the 25-year subperiods, excluding both the funds on hand at the beginning of the period and the cost of accumulating a target trust fund balance by the end of the period. These rates are useful for comparing the cash flows of tax income and expenditures, as an indicator of the degree to which tax income during the period is sufficient to meet the outgo estimated for the period.

For the combined OASDI program, a positive balance is projected only for the first 25-year subperiod under the low cost alternative I. A small deficit is projected for the first 25-year subperiod under the intermediate alternative II, indicating that without the trust fund balance available at the beginning of this period, cash flow would be insufficient to cover the cost of the program through 2021. Deficits are projected for the second and third subperiods under all three alternatives.


Table II.F14.­ Comparison of Summarized Income Rates and Cost Rates for 25-Year Subperiods 1/, by Trust Fund and Alternative, Calendar Years 1997-2071

[As a percentage of taxable payroll]
Subperiod OASI
DI
Combined
Income
rate
Cost
rate
Balance Income
rate
Cost
rate
Balance Income
rate
Cost
rate
Balance

Intermediate:
     1997-2021 10.91 10.77 0.15 1.81 1.99 -0.18 12.72 12.76 -0.04
     2022-2046 11.25 15.02 -3.77 1.83 2.40 -.56 13.08 17.41 -4.33
     2047-2071 11.40 16.08 -4.68 1.84 2.54 -.70 13.24 18.62 -5.38
 
Low Cost:
     1997-2021 10.88 9.91 .97 1.80 1.63 .17 12.68 11.55 1.13
     2022-2046 11.12 12.69 -1.57 1.82 1.73 .09 12.95 14.42 -1.47
     2047-2071 11.18 12.02 -.84 1.83 1.72 .11 13.01 13.74 -.73
 
High Cost:
     1997-2021 10.95 11.76 -.80 1.81 2.42 -.61 12.77 14.17 -1.41
     2022-2046 11.41 18.00 -6.59 1.85 3.21 -1.36 13.26 21.20 -7.95
     2047-2071 11.75 22.47 -10.73 1.87 3.66 -1.80 13.61 26.14 -12.52

1 Income rates do not include beginning trust fund balances and cost rates do not include the cost of accumulating target trust fund balances.

Note: Totals do not necessarily equal the sums of rounded components.



Table
II.F15 shows summarized rates including the funds on hand at the start of the period and the cost of accumulating a target trust fund balance equal to 100 percent of annual expenditures by the end of the period, for valuation periods of the first 25 years, the first 50 years, and the entire 75-year period. Therefore, the actuarial balance for each of these three valuation periods is equal to the difference between the summarized income rate and cost rate for the corresponding period. A balance of zero for any period on this basis would indicate that estimated outgo for the period could be met, on the average, with a remaining trust fund balance at the end of the period equal to 100 percent of the following year's outgo.


Table II.F15.­ Comparison of Summarized Income Rates and Cost Rates for Valuation
Periods 1/, by Trust Fund and Alternative, Calendar Years 1997-2071

[As a percentage of taxable payroll]
Valuation
period
OASI
DI
Combined
Income
rate
Cost
rate
Balance Income
rate
Cost
rate
Balance Income
rate
Cost
rate
Balance

Intermediate:
    25-years:  
      1997-2021 11.73 11.21 0.52 1.89 2.07 -0.18 13.62 13.28 0.35
    50-years:  
       1997-2046 11.54 12.67 -1.14 1.87 2.19 -.32 13.41 14.86 -1.45
    75-years:  
       1997-2071 11.51 13.34 -1.84 1.86 2.25 -.39 13.37 15.60 -2.23
 
Low Cost:
    25-years:  
       1997-2021 11.68 10.31 1.38 1.88 1.69 .19 13.57 12.00 1.57
    50-years:  
       1997-2046 11.46 11.20 .26 1.86 1.70 .16 13.32 12.89 .42
    75-years:  
       1997-2071 11.40 11.34 .06 1.85 1.70 .16 13.25 13.03 .21
 
High Cost:
    25-years:  
       1997-2021 11.79 12.27 -.47 1.90 2.52 -.62 13.69 14.78 -1.09
    50-years:  
       1997-2046 11.64 14.54 -2.91 1.88 2.78 -.90 13.51 17.32 -3.81
    75-years:  
       1997-2071 11.66 16.12 -4.46 1.88 2.95 -1.07 13.53 19.07 -5.54

1 Income rates include beginning trust fund balances and cost rates include the cost of reaching an ending fund target equal to 100 percent of annual expenditures by the end of the period.

Note: Totals do not necessarily equal the sums of rounded components.



The values in table
II.F15 show that the combined OASDI program is expected to operate with a positive actuarial balance over shorter valuation periods under alternatives I and II. For the first 25-year valuation period the summarized values indicate balances of 1.57 percent of taxable payroll under alternative I, 0.35 percent under alternative II, and -1.09 percent under alternative III. Thus, the program is more than adequately financed for the next 25-year valuation period under all but the high cost alternative III projections. Over the 50-year valuation period, 1997-2046, the OASDI program would have a positive balance of 0.42 percent under alternative I, but would have deficits of 1.45 percent under alternative II and 3.81 percent under alternative III. Thus, the program is more than adequately financed for the 50-year valuation period under only the low cost set of assumptions, alternative I.

For the entire 75-year valuation period, the combined OASDI program would again have actuarial deficits except for the low cost set of assumptions, alternative I. The actuarial balance for this long-range valuation period is projected to be 0.21 percent of taxable payroll under alternative I, -2.23 percent under alternative II, and -5.54 percent under alternative III.

As may be concluded from tables II.F14 and II.F15, the financial condition of the DI program is somewhat poorer than that of the OASI program for the first 25 years. Summarized over the full 75-year period, however, long-range deficits for the OASI and DI programs under intermediate assumptions are about the same relative to program costs.

c. Test of Long-Range Close Actuarial Balance

Two tests of the financial status of the OASI, DI, and combined OASDI programs are presented in this report. The test of long-range close actuarial balance incorporates a graduated tolerance scale which allows larger actuarial deficits for longer valuation periods, allowing for the greater uncertainty inherent in the estimates for later years. The other test, the short-range test of the financial adequacy of the program, was discussed earlier in this section.

Table II.F16 presents a comparison of the estimated actuarial balances with the minimum allowable balance (or maximum allowable deficit) under the long-range test, each expressed as a percentage of the summarized cost rate, based on the intermediate alternative II estimates. Values are shown for only 14 of the valuation periods: those of length 10 years, 15 years, and continuing in 5-year increments through 75 years. However, each of the 66 periods -- those of length 10 years, 11 years, and continuing in 1-year increments through 75 years -- is considered for the test. These minimum allowable balances are calculated to show the limit for each valuation period resulting from the graduated tolerance scale. The patterns in the estimated balances as a percentage of the summarized cost rates, as well as that for the minimum allowable balance, are presented graphically in figure II.F4, for the OASI, DI and combined OASDI programs. Values shown for the 25-year, 50-year, and 75-year valuation periods correspond to those presented in table II.F15.

As discussed earlier, a program is found not to be in long-range close actuarial balance if, for any of the valuation periods ending with the 10th through 75th years of the projection period, the estimated actuarial balance is less than the minimum allowable balance. The minimum allowable balance as a percentage of the summarized cost rate is -5.0 percent for the full 75-year long-range period and is reduced uniformly for shorter valuation periods, reaching zero for the 10-year valuation period.

For the OASI program, the estimated actuarial balance as a percentage of the summarized cost rate exceeds the minimum allowable for valuation periods of length 10 years through 33 years, under the intermediate alternative II estimates. For valuation periods of length greater than 33 years, the estimated actuarial balance is less than the minimum allowable. For the full 75-year long-range period the estimated actuarial balance reaches -13.76 percent of the summarized cost rate, for a shortfall of nearly 9 percent, from the minimum allowable balance of -5.0 percent of the summarized cost rate. Thus, although the OASI program satisfies the short-range test of financial adequacy (as discussed earlier in this section), it is not in long-range close actuarial balance.

For the DI program, the estimated actuarial balance as a percentage of the summarized cost rate exceeds the minimum allowable balance for valuation periods of length 10 through 12 years under the intermediate alternative II estimates. For valuation periods of length greater than 12 years, the estimated actuarial balance is less than the minimum allowable. The shortfall from the minimum allowable balance rises to a level of 17.29 percent of the summarized cost rate for the full long-range period, for a shortfall of over 12 percent, from the minimum allowable balance of -5.0 percent of the summarized cost rate. Thus, although the DI program satisfies the short-range test of financial adequacy (as discussed earlier in this section), it is also not in long-range close actuarial balance.

As indicated above, financing for the DI program is less adequate than for the OASI program during the first 25 years even though long-range actuarial deficits are comparable over the entire 75-year period. This occurs because the cost of the OASI program rises much more quickly during the long-range period. As a result, tax rates that are relatively more adequate for the OASI program during the first 25 years, become relatively less adequate thereafter.

For the combined OASDI program, the estimated actuarial balance as a percentage of the summarized cost rate exceeds the minimum allowable balance for valuation periods of length 10 years through 30 years. For valuation periods of length greater than 30 years, the estimated actuarial balance is below the minimum allowable balance. The size of the shortfall from the minimum allowable balance rises gradually reaching 9.27 percent of the summarized cost rate for the full 75-year long-range valuation period. Thus, although the OASDI program satisfies the short-range test of financial adequacy (as discussed earlier in this section), it is out of long-range close actuarial balance.

The OASI and DI programs, both separate and combined, were also found to be out of close actuarial balance in last year's report. The estimated deficits for the OASI, DI, and combined OASDI programs in this report are similar to those shown in last year's report.


Table II.F16.­ Comparison of Estimated Long-Range Actuarial Balances With the Minimum Allowable for the Test for Close Actuarial Balance by Trust Fund,
Based on Intermediate Estimates

Valuation
period
Rates
(percentage of taxable payroll)
Balance as a
percentage of cost rate
Summarized
income rate
Summarized
cost rate
Balance Balance Minimum
allowable
balance

OASI:  
10 years: 1997-2006 12.69 11.05 1.64 14.87 0.00
15 years: 1997-2011 12.14 10.81 1.33 12.26 -.38
20 years: 1997-2016 11.88 10.91 .96 8.81 -.77
25 years: 1997-2021 11.73 11.21 .52 4.67 -1.15
30 years: 1997-2026 11.65 11.58 .08 .65 -1.54
35 years: 1997-2031 11.61 11.95 -.34 -2.83 -1.92
40 years: 1997-2036 11.58 12.26 -.68 -5.55 -2.31
45 years: 1997-2041 11.55 12.49 -.94 -7.52 -2.69
50 years: 1997-2046 11.54 12.67 -1.14 -8.96 -3.08
55 years: 1997-2051 11.53 12.83 -1.30 -10.14 -3.46
60 years: 1997-2056 11.52 12.97 -1.45 -11.19 -3.85
65 years: 1997-2061 11.51 13.11 -1.59 -12.15 -4.23
70 years: 1997-2066 11.51 13.23 -1.72 -13.00 -4.62
75 years: 1997-2071 11.51 13.34 -1.84 -13.76 -5.00
 
DI:  
10 years: 1997-2006 1.97 1.91 .06 3.26 .00
15 years: 1997-2011 1.93 1.97 -.05 -2.33 -.38
20 years: 1997-2016 1.90 2.03 -.12 -6.06 -.77
25 years: 1997-2021 1.89 2.07 -.18 -8.60 -1.15
30 years: 1997-2026 1.88 2.11 -.23 -10.69 -1.54
35 years: 1997-2031 1.88 2.14 -.26 -12.17 -1.92
40 years: 1997-2036 1.87 2.15 -.28 -13.06 -2.31
45 years: 1997-2041 1.87 2.17 -.30 -13.77 -2.69
50 years: 1997-2046 1.87 2.19 -.32 -14.57 -3.08
55 years: 1997-2051 1.87 2.20 -.34 -15.33 -3.46
60 years: 1997-2056 1.87 2.22 -.36 -16.00 -3.85
65 years: 1997-2061 1.86 2.23 -.37 -16.52 -4.23
70 years: 1997-2066 1.86 2.24 -.38 -16.92 -4.62
75 years: 1997-2071 1.86 2.25 -.39 -17.29 -5.00
 
OASDI:  
10 years: 1997-2006 14.67 12.96 1.71 13.16 .00
15 years: 1997-2011 14.06 12.78 1.28 10.01 -.38
20 years: 1997-2016 13.78 12.94 .84 6.48 -.77
25 years: 1997-2021 13.62 13.28 .35 2.60 -1.15
30 years: 1997-2026 13.54 13.69 -.15 -1.10 -1.54
35 years: 1997-2031 13.48 14.08 -.60 -4.25 -1.92
40 years: 1997-2036 13.45 14.41 -.96 -6.68 -2.31
45 years: 1997-2041 13.42 14.66 -1.24 -8.44 -2.69
50 years: 1997-2046 13.41 14.86 -1.45 -9.79 -3.08
55 years: 1997-2051 13.39 15.03 -1.64 -10.90 -3.46
60 years: 1997-2056 13.38 15.19 -1.81 -11.89 -3.85
65 years: 1997-2061 13.38 15.34 -1.96 -12.78 -4.23
70 years: 1997-2066 13.37 15.47 -2.10 -13.57 -4.62
75 years: 1997-2071 13.37 15.60 -2.23 -14.27 -5.00

Note: Totals do not necessarily equal the sums of rounded components.


Figure II.F4.­ Comparison of Estimated Long-Range Actuarial Balances With the Minimum Allowable for Close Actuarial Balance, Alternative II by Trust Fund


 


d. Income and Cost Rates by Component

Annual income rates and their components are shown in table II.F17, for each alternative set of assumptions. The annual income rates reflect the scheduled payroll tax rates and the projected rates of income from the taxation of benefits, which reflect changes in the cost rates and the fact that benefit-taxation threshold amounts are not indexed.

Summarized values for the annual income and cost rates, along with their components, are presented in table II.F18 for 25-year, 50-year, and 75-year valuation periods. Summarized income rates include the starting trust fund balance in addition to the components included in the annual income rates. The summarized cost rates include the cost of reaching and maintaining an ending trust fund target of 100 percent of annual expenditures by the end of the period in addition to the expenditures included in the annual cost rates. Thus, the total summarized rates shown in table II.F18 are the same as the summarized income and cost rates shown in table II.F15 for the 25-year, 50-year, and 75-year valuation periods.

It may be noted that the payroll tax income expressed as a percentage of taxable payroll is slightly smaller than the actual tax rates in effect for each period. This results from the fact that all OASDI income and outgo amounts presented in this report are computed on a cash basis, i.e., amounts are attributed to the year in which they are actually received by, or expended from, the fund, while taxable payroll is allocated to the year in which earnings are paid. Because earnings are paid to workers before the corresponding payroll taxes are credited to the funds, payroll tax income for a particular year reflects a combination of the taxable payrolls from that year and from prior years, when payroll was smaller. Dividing payroll tax income by taxable payroll for a particular year, or period of years, will thus generally result in an income rate that is slightly less than the applicable tax rate for the period.


Table II.F17.­ Components of Annual Income Rates by Trust Fund and Alternative,
Calendar Years 1997-2075

[As a percentage of taxable payroll]
Calendar
year
OASI
DI
Combined
Payroll
tax
Taxation
of
benefits
Total Payroll
tax
Taxation
of
benefits
Total Payroll
tax
Taxation
of
benefits
Total

Intermediate:
       1997 10.70 0.21 10.91 1.70 0.01 1.71 12.40 0.23 12.63
       1998 10.70 .22 10.92 1.70 .01 1.71 12.40 .23 12.63
       1999 10.70 .22 10.92 1.70 .01 1.71 12.40 .24 12.64
       2000 10.60 .22 10.82 1.80 .01 1.81 12.40 .24 12.64
       2001 10.60 .23 10.83 1.80 .02 1.82 12.40 .25 12.65
       2002 10.60 .24 10.84 1.80 .02 1.82 12.40 .26 12.66
       2003 10.60 .24 10.84 1.80 .02 1.82 12.40 .26 12.66
       2004 10.60 .25 10.85 1.80 .02 1.82 12.40 .27 12.67
       2005 10.60 .26 10.86 1.80 .02 1.82 12.40 .27 12.67
       2006 10.60 .26 10.86 1.80 .02 1.82 12.40 .28 12.68
 
       2010 10.60 .31 10.91 1.80 .02 1.82 12.40 .33 12.73
       2015 10.60 .39 10.99 1.80 .03 1.83 12.40 .42 12.82
       2020 10.60 .49 11.09 1.80 .03 1.83 12.40 .52 12.92
       2025 10.60 .58 11.18 1.80 .03 1.83 12.40 .61 13.01
       2030 10.60 .65 11.25 1.80 .04 1.84 12.40 .69 13.09
       2035 10.60 .70 11.30 1.80 .04 1.84 12.40 .74 13.14
       2040 10.60 .72 11.32 1.80 .04 1.84 12.40 .76 13.16
       2045 10.60 .74 11.34 1.80 .04 1.84 12.40 .78 13.18
       2050 10.60 .77 11.37 1.80 .04 1.84 12.40 .81 13.21
       2055 10.60 .80 11.40 1.80 .05 1.85 12.40 .85 13.25
       2060 10.60 .83 11.43 1.80 .05 1.85 12.40 .88 13.28
       2065 10.60 .86 11.46 1.80 .05 1.85 12.40 .90 13.30
       2070 10.60 .88 11.48 1.80 .05 1.85 12.40 .92 13.32
       2075 10.60 .89 11.49 1.80 .05 1.85 12.40 .94 13.34
 
Low Cost:
       1997 10.70 .21 10.91 1.70 .01 1.71 12.40 .23 12.63
       1998 10.70 .21 10.91 1.70 .01 1.71 12.40 .23 12.63
       1999 10.70 .22 10.92 1.70 .01 1.71 12.40 .23 12.63
       2000 10.60 .19 10.79 1.80 .01 1.81 12.40 .21 12.61
       2001 10.60 .22 10.82 1.80 .01 1.81 12.40 .24 12.64
       2002 10.60 .23 10.83 1.80 .01 1.81 12.40 .24 12.64
       2003 10.60 .23 10.83 1.80 .01 1.81 12.40 .24 12.64
       2004 10.60 .23 10.83 1.80 .02 1.82 12.40 .25 12.65
       2005 10.60 .23 10.83 1.80 .02 1.82 12.40 .25 12.65
       2006 10.60 .24 10.84 1.80 .02 1.82 12.40 .25 12.65
 
       2010 10.60 .27 10.87 1.80 .02 1.82 12.40 .29 12.69
       2015 10.60 .34 10.94 1.80 .02 1.82 12.40 .36 12.76
       2020 10.60 .42 11.02 1.80 .02 1.82 12.40 .44 12.84
       2025 10.60 .49 11.09 1.80 .02 1.82 12.40 .51 12.91
       2030 10.60 .54 11.14 1.80 .03 1.83 12.40 .57 12.97
       2035 10.60 .57 11.17 1.80 .03 1.83 12.40 .59 12.99
       2040 10.60 .57 11.17 1.80 .03 1.83 12.40 .60 13.00
       2045 10.60 .57 11.17 1.80 .03 1.83 12.40 .60 13.00
       2050 10.60 .58 11.18 1.80 .03 1.83 12.40 .61 13.01
       2055 10.60 .59 11.19 1.80 .03 1.83 12.40 .62 13.02
       2060 10.60 .60 11.20 1.80 .03 1.83 12.40 .63 13.03
       2065 10.60 .61 11.21 1.80 .03 1.83 12.40 .64 13.04
       2070 10.60 .61 11.21 1.80 .03 1.83 12.40 .64 13.04
       2075 10.60 .61 11.21 1.80 .03 1.83 12.40 .65 13.05
 
High Cost:
       1997 10.70 .22 10.92 1.70 .01 1.71 12.40 .23 12.63
       1998 10.70 .23 10.93 1.70 .01 1.71 12.40 .24 12.64
       1999 10.70 .23 10.93 1.70 .01 1.71 12.40 .24 12.64
       2000 10.60 .26 10.86 1.80 .02 1.82 12.40 .27 12.67
       2001 10.60 .25 10.85 1.80 .02 1.82 12.40 .27 12.67
       2002 10.60 .26 10.86 1.80 .02 1.82 12.40 .28 12.68
       2003 10.60 .27 10.87 1.80 .02 1.82 12.40 .29 12.69
       2004 10.60 .27 10.87 1.80 .02 1.82 12.40 .29 12.69
       2005 10.60 .28 10.88 1.80 .02 1.82 12.40 .30 12.70
       2006 10.60 .29 10.89 1.80 .02 1.82 12.40 .31 12.71
 
       2010 10.60 .35 10.95 1.80 .03 1.83 12.40 .38 12.78
       2015 10.60 .45 11.05 1.80 .04 1.84 12.40 .49 12.89
       2020 10.60 .57 11.17 1.80 .04 1.84 12.40 .61 13.01
       2025 10.60 .69 11.29 1.80 .05 1.85 12.40 .73 13.13
       2030 10.60 .79 11.39 1.80 .05 1.85 12.40 .84 13.24
       2035 10.60 .87 11.47 1.80 .05 1.85 12.40 .93 13.33
       2040 10.60 .93 11.53 1.80 .06 1.86 12.40 .99 13.39
       2045 10.60 .98 11.58 1.80 .06 1.86 12.40 1.04 13.44
       2050 10.60 1.04 11.64 1.80 .07 1.87 12.40 1.10 13.50
       2055 10.60 1.11 11.71 1.80 .07 1.87 12.40 1.18 13.58
       2060 10.60 1.19 11.79 1.80 .07 1.87 12.40 1.26 13.66
       2065 10.60 1.27 11.87 1.80 .07 1.87 12.40 1.34 13.74
       2070 10.60 1.33 11.93 1.80 .07 1.87 12.40 1.40 13.80
       2075 10.60 1.39 11.99 1.80 .07 1.87 12.40 1.46 13.86

Note: Totals do not necessarily equal the sums of rounded component.


Table II.F18.­ Components of Summarized Income Rates and Cost Rates by
Trust Fund and Alternative, Calendar Years 1997-2071

[As a percentage of taxable payroll]
Valuation
period
Income rate
Cost rate
Payroll
tax
Taxation
of
benefits
Beginning
fund
balance
Total Disburse-
ments
Ending
fund
target
Total

OASI:
    Intermediate:  
       1997-2021 10.60 0.31 0.82 11.73 10.77 0.45 11.21
       1997-2046 10.59 .45 .49 11.54 12.47 .20 12.67
       1997-2071 10.59 .53 .39 11.51 13.23 .12 13.34
    Low Cost:  
       1997-2021 10.60 .28 .80 11.68 9.91 .39 10.31
       1997-2046 10.59 .38 .48 11.46 11.03 .17 11.20
       1997-2071 10.59 .43 .37 11.40 11.25 .09 11.34
    High Cost:  
       1997-2021 10.60 .35 .84 11.79 11.76 .51 12.27
       1997-2046 10.59 .54 .50 11.64 14.28 .27 14.54
       1997-2071 10.59 .67 .40 11.66 15.96 .16 16.12

DI:
    Intermediate:  
       1997-2021 1.78 .02 .08 1.89 1.99 .08 2.07
       1997-2046 1.79 .03 .05 1.87 2.15 .03 2.19
       1997-2071 1.79 .03 .04 1.86 2.23 .02 2.25
    Low Cost:  
       1997-2021 1.78 .02 .08 1.88 1.63 .06 1.69
       1997-2046 1.79 .02 .05 1.86 1.67 .02 1.70
       1997-2071 1.79 .02 .04 1.85 1.68 .01 1.70
    High Cost:  
       1997-2021 1.78 .03 .09 1.90 2.42 .10 2.52
       1997-2046 1.79 .04 .05 1.88 2.74 .05 2.78
       1997-2071 1.79 .04 .04 1.88 2.93 .02 2.95

OASDI:
    Intermediate:  
       1997-2021 12.39 .33 .91 13.62 12.76 .52 13.28
       1997-2046 12.38 .48 .54 13.41 14.62 .24 14.86
       1997-2071 12.38 .56 .43 13.37 15.46 .13 15.60
    Low Cost:  
       1997-2021 12.38 .30 .89 13.57 11.55 .45 12.00
       1997-2046 12.38 .40 .53 13.32 12.70 .19 12.89
       1997-2071 12.38 .45 .41 13.25 12.93 .10 13.03
    High Cost:  
       1997-2021 12.39 .38 .92 13.69 14.17 .61 14.78
       1997-2046 12.38 .58 .55 13.51 17.01 .31 17.32
       1997-2071 12.38 .71 .44 13.53 18.88 .19 19.07

Note: Totals do not necessarily equal the sums of rounded components.


e. Comparison of Workers to Beneficiaries


The primary reason that the estimated OASDI cost rate increases rapidly after 2010 is that the number of beneficiaries is projected to increase more rapidly than the number of covered workers. This occurs because the relatively large number of persons born during the period of high fertility rates from the end of World War II through the mid-1960s will reach retirement age, and begin to receive benefits, while the relatively small number of persons born during the subsequent period of low fertility rates will comprise the labor force. A comparison of the numbers of covered workers and beneficiaries is shown in table II.F19.


Table II.F19.­ Comparison of OASDI Covered Workers and Beneficiaries
by Alternative, Calendar Years 1945-2075

Calendar
year
Covered  
workers  1/
(in thousands)
Beneficiaries 2/ (in thousands)
Covered
workers per
OASDI
beneficiary
Beneficiaries
per 100
covered
workers
OASI DI OASDI

Historical data:
       1945 46,390 1,106 - 1,106 41.9 2
       1950 48,280 2,930 - 2,930 16.5 6
       1955 65,200 7,563 - 7,563 8.6 12
       1960 72,530 13,740 522 14,262 5.1 20
       1965 80,680 18,509 1,648 20,157 4.0 25
       1970 93,090 22,618 2,568 25,186 3.7 27
       1975 100,200 26,998 4,125 31,123 3.2 31
       1980 112,212 30,385 4,734 35,119 3.2 31
       1985 120,429 32,776 3,874 36,650 3.3 30
       1986 123,260 33,349 3,972 37,321 3.3 30
       1987 126,283 33,918 4,035 37,953 3.3 30
       1988 130,137 34,343 4,077 38,420 3.4 30
       1989 132,471 34,754 4,105 38,859 3.4 29
       1990 133,689 35,266 4,204 39,470 3.4 30
       1991 132,970 35,785 4,388 40,173 3.3 30
       1992 133,926 36,314 4,716 41,030 3.3 31
       1993 3/ 135,741 36,758 5,083 41,841 3.2 31
       1994 3/ 138,032 37,082 5,435 42,517 3.2 31
       1995 3/ 141,436 37,376 5,731 43,107 3.3 30
       1996 3/ 143,718 37,521 5,977 43,498 3.3 30
 
Intermediate:
       1997 145,320 37,783 6,184 43,967 3.3 30
       2000 148,689 38,760 6,868 45,628 3.3 31
       2005 155,230 40,921 8,312 49,233 3.2 32
       2010 161,023 44,744 9,670 54,413 3.0 34
       2015 164,192 50,607 10,536 61,143 2.7 37
       2020 165,511 57,847 10,954 68,802 2.4 42
       2025 165,956 64,633 11,390 76,024 2.2 46
       2030 167,309 70,081 11,535 81,616 2.0 49
       2035 169,342 73,421 11,488 84,909 2.0 50
       2040 171,393 74,485 11,663 86,148 2.0 50
       2045 172,851 75,196 12,217 87,412 2.0 51
       2050 173,875 76,567 12,577 89,144 2.0 51
       2055 174,672 78,853 12,815 91,667 1.9 52
       2060 175,516 81,272 12,790 94,062 1.9 54
       2065 176,493 83,125 12,824 95,949 1.8 54
       2070 177,443 84,648 13,001 97,648 1.8 55
       2075 178,184 86,162 13,217 99,379 1.8 56
 
Low Cost:
       1997 146,105 37,774 6,149 43,923 3.3 30
       2000 150,981 38,652 6,577 45,229 3.3 30
       2005 159,150 40,535 7,497 48,032 3.3 30
       2010 165,700 44,135 8,274 52,409 3.2 32
       2015 169,395 49,702 8,711 58,413 2.9 34
       2020 171,718 56,588 8,894 65,482 2.6 38
       2025 173,791 62,962 9,172 72,134 2.4 42
       2030 177,595 67,856 9,281 77,137 2.3 43
       2035 182,752 70,547 9,278 79,825 2.3 44
       2040 188,528 71,038 9,471 80,509 2.3 43
       2045 194,123 71,393 9,974 81,367 2.4 42
       2050 199,696 72,530 10,362 82,892 2.4 42
       2055 205,551 74,675 10,698 85,373 2.4 42
       2060 211,947 76,941 10,891 87,832 2.4 41
       2065 218,800 78,810 11,197 90,007 2.4 41
       2070 225,793 80,708 11,636 92,343 2.4 41
       2075 232,657 83,028 12,118 95,146 2.4 41
 
High Cost:
       1997 144,575 37,793 6,227 44,020 3.3 30
       2000 146,113 38,861 7,245 46,106 3.2 32
       2005 150,935 41,276 9,348 50,624 3.0 34
       2010 155,826 45,298 11,041 56,340 2.8 36
       2015 158,224 51,396 12,337 63,733 2.5 40
       2020 158,451 58,956 12,990 71,946 2.2 45
       2025 157,344 66,176 13,582 79,758 2.0 51
       2030 156,472 72,307 13,758 86,066 1.8 55
       2035 155,755 76,548 13,661 90,209 1.7 58
       2040 154,488 78,538 13,807 92,345 1.7 60
       2045 152,356 80,003 14,397 94,400 1.6 62
       2050 149,596 82,023 14,694 96,717 1.5 65
       2055 146,371 84,852 14,773 99,625 1.5 68
       2060 142,977 87,798 14,431 102,229 1.4 72
       2065 139,610 90,316 14,013 104,329 1.3 75
       2070 136,261 91,449 13,851 105,300 1.3 77
       2075 132,857 92,459 13,682 106,141 1.3 80

1 Workers who are paid at some time during the year for employment on which OASDI taxes are due.

2 Beneficiaries with monthly benefits in current-payment status as of June 30.

3 Preliminary.

Note: The numbers of beneficiaries do not include certain uninsured persons, most of whom both attained age 72 before 1968 and have fewer than 3 quarters of coverage, in which cases the costs are reimbursed by the general fund of the Treasury. The number of such uninsured persons was 797 as of June 30, 1996, and is estimated to be fewer than 200 by the turn of the century. Totals do not necessarily equal the sums of rounded components.



Table
II.F19 shows that the number of covered workers per beneficiary, which was about 3.3 in 1996, is estimated to decline in the future. Based on the low cost alternative I, for which high fertility rates and small reductions in death rates are assumed, the ratio declines to a level of 2.3 by 2030, and increases slowly thereafter. Based on the high cost alternative III, for which low fertility rates and substantial reductions in death rates are assumed, the decline is much greater, reaching 1.3 workers per beneficiary by 2065. Based on the intermediate alternative II, the ratio declines to 1.8 workers per beneficiary by 2065.

The impact of the demographic shifts under the three alternatives on the OASDI cost rates is better understood by considering the projected number of beneficiaries per 100 workers. As compared to the 1996 level of 30 beneficiaries per 100 covered workers, this ratio is estimated to rise by the year 2075 to significantly higher levels, which are 41 under alternative I, 56 under alternative II, and 80 under alternative III. The significance of these numbers can be seen by comparing figure II.F3 to figure II.F5.


Figure II.F5.­ Ratios of Estimated OASDI Beneficiaries Per 100 Covered Workers
by Alternative, Calendar Years 1985-2075


 


For each alternative, the shape of the curve in figure
II.F5, which shows beneficiaries per 100 covered workers, is strikingly similar to that of the corresponding cost-rate curve in figure II.F3, thereby emphasizing the extent to which the cost of the OASDI program is determined by the age patterns of the population. Because the cost rate is basically the product of the number of beneficiaries and their average benefit, divided by the product of the number of covered workers and their average taxable earnings (and because average benefits rise at about the same rate as average earnings), it is to be expected that the pattern of the annual cost rates is similar to that of the annual ratios of beneficiaries to workers. A graphical presentation of covered workers per beneficiary is shown in section I.H of the Overview.

f. Trust Fund Ratios

Table II.F20 shows, by alternative, the estimated trust fund ratios (without regard to advance tax transfers that would be effected after the end of the 10-year, short-range period) for the separate and combined OASI and DI Trust Funds. Also shown in this table is the first year in which a fund is estimated to be exhausted, reflecting the effect of the provision for advance tax transfers. The patterns of the combined fund ratios, over the 75-year period, are shown graphically in figure II.F6, for all three sets of assumptions.

Based on alternative II, the OASI trust fund ratio rises steadily from 160 percent at the beginning of 1997, reaching a peak of 306 percent at the beginning of 2013. This increase in the OASI trust fund ratio results from the fact that the annual income rate (excluding interest) exceeds annual outgo for several years (see table II.F13). Thereafter, the OASI ratio declines steadily, with the OASI Trust Fund becoming exhausted in 2031. The DI trust fund ratio follows a similar pattern, except that it unfolds more rapidly. The DI trust fund ratio is estimated to rise from 108 percent at the beginning of 1996 to a peak of 152 percent in 2003, and to decline thereafter until becoming exhausted in 2015.

The trust fund ratio for the hypothetical combined OASI and DI Trust Funds rises from 153 percent for 1997 to a peak of 265 percent at the beginning of 2011. Thereafter, the ratio declines, with the combined funds becoming exhausted in 2029. Based on the intermediate estimates in last year's report, the peak fund ratio for the combined funds was estimated to be 245 percent in 2011 and the year of exhaustion was estimated to be 2029.

The trust fund ratio for the combined OASDI program begins to decline in 2012, the same year annual expenditures begin to exceed noninterest income. Although the dollar amount of assets will continue to rise through the beginning of 2018, because interest income more than offsets the shortfall in noninterest income, revenue from the general fund of the Treasury will be needed in increasingly large amounts, beginning in 2012, to redeem the trust funds' public-debt obligations due to the cash-flow shortfall. This will differ from the experience of recent years when the trust funds have been net lenders to the general fund. The change in the cash flow between the trust funds and the general fund is expected to have important public policy and economic implications that go well beyond the operation of the OASDI program itself. Discussion of these issues is outside the scope of this report.

Based on the low cost alternative I assumptions, the trust fund ratio for the DI program increases throughout the long-range projection period, reaching an extremely high level by 2071, of 1,276 percent. For the OASI program, the trust fund ratio rises to a peak of 469 percent in 2017, dropping thereafter to a level of 169 percent by 2071. For the combined OASDI program, trust fund ratios follow a pattern similar to that for OASI, peaking at 457 percent in 2018, and then falling to a level of 320 percent by 2050, but remaining fairly level thereafter, reaching a level of 310 percent for 2071.

In contrast, under alternative III, the OASI trust fund ratio is estimated to peak at 195 percent in 2007, thereafter declining to fund exhaustion by the end of 2022. The DI Trust Fund is estimated to begin declining in 1999, becoming depleted in 2007. The combined trust fund ratio is estimated to rise to a peak of 175 percent in 2001, declining thereafter to fund exhaustion by the end of 2018.

The fact that the financing for the DI program is relatively more adequate compared to the financing for the OASI program under low cost assumptions, but relatively less adequate under high cost assumptions is due to the tax rate reallocation enacted in 1994. This reallocation roughly equalized the size of the long-range actuarial deficits of the OASI and DI programs in relation to the summarized cost rates under intermediate assumptions. A smaller reallocation would have been needed to equalize the deficits in this manner under low cost alternative I assumptions, while a larger reallocation would have been needed under high cost alternative III assumptions.

Thus, because of the high ultimate cost rates that are projected under all but the most optimistic assumptions, income will eventually need to be increased and/or program costs will need to be reduced in order to prevent the trust funds from becoming exhausted.

Even under the high cost assumptions, however, the combined OASI and DI funds on hand plus their estimated future income would be able to cover their combined expenditures for 21 years into the future (until 2018). Under the alternative II assumptions the combined starting funds plus estimated future income would be able to cover expenditures for about 32 years into the future (until 2029). The program would be able to cover expenditures for the indefinite future under the more optimistic assumptions in alternative I. In the 1996 report, the combined trust funds were projected to be exhausted in 2016 under alternative III and in 2029 under alternative II.


Table II.F20.­ Estimated Trust Fund Ratios by Trust Fund and Alternative,
Calendar Years 1997-2075

[In percent]
Calendar year Intermediate
Low Cost
High Cost
OASI DI Com-
bined
OASI DI Com-
bined
OASI DI Com-
bined

1997 160 108 153 160 110 153 159 107 152
1998 173 122 166 175 127 169 171 115 164
1999 186 130 178 191 143 184 179 114 170
2000 198 136 189 208 159 201 184 110 173
2001 209 145 200 224 179 218 188 105 175
2002 220 150 209 243 198 237 189 95 174
2003 231 152 219 263 217 256 190 83 173
2004 242 151 228 284 232 276 192 67 171
2005 253 147 236 305 245 297 194 49 169
2006 264 140 244 329 257 318 195 29 165
 
2010 298 95 264 411 299 394 189 (1/) 139
2015 299 12 252 465 351 449 144 (1/) 73
2020 249 (1/) 198 462 407 454 54 (1/) (1/)
2025 162 (1/) 110 427 457 431 (1/) (1/) (1/)
2030 50 (1/) (1/) 377 510 393 (1/) (1/) (1/)
2035 (1/) (1/) (1/) 327 595 358 (1/) (1/) (1/)
2040 (1/) (1/) (1/) 291 685 337 (1/) (1/) (1/)
2045 (1/) (1/) (1/) 266 753 326 (1/) (1/) (1/)
2050 (1/) (1/) (1/) 246 829 320 (1/) (1/) (1/)
2055 (1/) (1/) (1/) 226 915 313 (1/) (1/) (1/)
2060 (1/) (1/) (1/) 205 1,028 307 (1/) (1/) (1/)
2065 (1/) (1/) (1/) 186 1,145 306 (1/) (1/) (1/)
2070 (1/) (1/) (1/) 172 1,254 309 (1/) (1/) (1/)
2075 (1/) (1/) (1/) 159 1,362 313 (1/) (1/) (1/)
 
Trust fund is
estimated to be
 
exhausted in: 2031 2015 2029 (2/) (2/) (2/) 2022 2007 2018

1 The trust fund is estimated to have been exhausted by the beginning of this year. The last line of the table shows the specific year of trust fund exhaustion.

2 The fund is not estimated to be exhausted within the projection period.

Note: See Glossary for definition of trust fund ratio. The combined ratios shown for years after either the OASI or the DI fund is estimated to be exhausted are theoretical and are shown for informational purposes only.



A graphic illustration of the trust fund ratios for the combined trust funds is shown in figure
II.F6 for each of the alternative sets of assumptions.


Figure II.F6.­ Estimated Trust Fund Ratios, for OASI and DI Trust Funds Combined,
by Alternative, Calendar Years 1985-2075

[Assets as a percentage of annual expenditures]
 


g. Reasons for Change in Actuarial Balance From Last Report

Reasons for changes from last year's report to this report in the long-range actuarial balance under the intermediate assumptions are itemized in table II.F21. Also shown are the estimated effects associated with each reason for change.


Table II.F21.­ Change in Actuarial Balance Over the Next 75 Years Based on Intermediate Assumptions by Trust Fund and Reason for Change

[As a percentage of taxable payroll]
Item OASI DI Combined

Shown in last year's report:
Income rate 11.47 1.85 13.33
Cost rate 13.33 2.20 15.52
Actuarial balance -1.85 -.34 -2.19
Changes in actuarial balance due to changes in:
         Legislation / Regulation +.03 +.00 +.03
         Valuation period -.07 -.01 -.08
         Demographic assumptions -.03 -.00 -.03
         Economic assumptions +.06 -.00 +.06
         Disability assumptions +.01 -.03 -.02
         Methods +.00 +.00 +.00
     Total change in actuarial balance +.02 -.05 -.03
Shown in this report:
Actuarial balance -1.84 -.39 -2.23
Income rate 11.51 1.86 13.37
Cost rate 13.35 2.25 15.60

Note: Totals do not necessarily equal the sums of rounded components.


Legislative changes enacted since last year's report and a regulatory change not reflected in last year's report are described in section II.A. These changes are estimated to increase the long-range OASDI actuarial balance.

In changing from the valuation period of last year's report, which was 1996-2070, to the valuation period of this report, 1997-2071, the relatively large negative annual balance for the year 2071 is included. This results in a decrease in the long-range actuarial balance. (Note that the positive balance for 1996 is, in effect, retained because the funds accumulated during the year are included in the income rate and the actuarial balance for this year's report.)

Several demographic assumptions were modified: (1) the starting population was updated to reflect revised postcensal estimates (1990 through 1995) by the Bureau of the Census, which showed more people at working ages than did earlier estimates; (2) projected mortality rates were decreased, reflecting the latest data, which were, on balance, lower than expected for 1992 through 1995; and (3) projected fertility rates were decreased slightly through 2010, consistent with recent data that shows lower birth rates than did earlier estimates. These modifications result in a net decrease in the long-range actuarial balance.

Several significant changes were made to economic assumptions for the 1997 report (see section II.D1). The ultimate rate of change in the CPI was reduced by a total of 0.5 percentage point. This total includes about 0.2 percentage point to reflect improvements made during 1995 and 1996 by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) in the methods for measuring changes in price levels. The remaining 0.3 percentage point change is based on analysis of historical data and expected future trends. The ultimate assumed rate of growth in the gross domestic product (GDP) price index is assumed to be 0.1 percentage point lower than for the CPI. (No difference between these rates of change was assumed for the 1996 report.)

The improvement in the CPI, taken together with a change from a fixed-weighted to a chain-weighted price measure for the GDP index (to take account of a recent Bureau of Economic Analysis change) and a revised historical series of real GDP growth, caused revisions in other measures. As a result, the ultimate assumed rates of change in productivity and real wage levels, and the ultimate assumed rate of decline in the average number of hours worked per week were reduced to rates that are each 0.1 percentage point lower than the corresponding assumption used for last year's report.

In addition, the assumed real interest rate for long-term United States government securities was increased from 2.3 percent to 2.7 percent. Of this increase, 0.2 percentage point reflects the reduction in the CPI measurement, and 0.2 percentage point reflects analysis of historical experience. Also, both labor force participation rates and the percentage of the Social Security Area population that is working in OASDI covered employment were increased for the long-range projection period, based on recent data. The net result of these changes is an increase in the long-range actuarial balance.

Death rates for disabled worker beneficiaries were lowered throughout the long-range period based on analysis of trends in recent data. The difference between death rates for the disabled and death rates for the general population has diminished in recent years. This modification results in a reduction in the long-range actuarial balance for the DI program.

No significant changes were made in the methods used to project the cost and income of the OASDI program.

The cost of the OASDI program has been discussed in this section in relation to taxable payroll, which is a program-related concept that is very useful in analyzing the financial status of the OASDI program. The cost can also be discussed in relation to broader economic concepts, such as the GDP. OASDI outlays generally rise from a little less than 5 percent of GDP currently to about 6.7 percent of GDP by the end of the 75-year projection period under alternative II. Discussion of both the cost and the taxable payroll of the OASDI program in relation to GDP is presented in appendix C.



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1 Adjustments are made to include, after 1982, deemed wage credits based on military service, and to reflect the lower effective tax rates (as compared to the combined employee-employer rate) which apply to multiple-employer "excess wages," and which did apply, before 1984, to net earnings from self-employment and, before 1988, to income from tips.

2 The estimates shown in this subsection reflect 12 months of benefit payments in each year of the short-range projection period. In practice, 13 benefit payments can be made in certain years, with the next year having only 11 payments. This situation can result from the statutory requirement that benefit checks be delivered early when the normal check delivery date is a Saturday, Sunday, or legal public holiday. For example, the benefit checks for December 1992 would normally have been delivered on January 3, 1993; however, because that day was a Sunday, and the two preceding days a Saturday and a holiday, the checks were actually delivered on December 31, 1992. The annual benefit figures are shown as if those benefit checks were delivered on the usual date.

3 Although the number of disability benefit awards is higher as a result of AIDS, this effect has been fully reflected in the projections shown in past annual reports. Thus, the greater number of awards due to AIDS does not account for the unexpectedly large increases in awards experienced in the early 1990s.