Short-Range Actuarial Projections of the Old-Age, Survivors, and Disability Insurance Program, 2001 Actuarial Study No. 115 Chris Motsiopoulos and Tim Zayatz, A.S.A.

FOREWORD

Actuarial Study No. 115 describes the methodology used to estimate the future short-range financial operations of the Old-Age, Survivors, and Disability Insurance program as presented in the 2001 OASDI Trustees Report. As has been customary for all recent reports, the "short-range" projection period is defined as the 10-year period beginning with the current year. This study is the fourth in a series to describe in detail the development of the short-range estimates (previous such reports appeared in Actuarial Study No. 103 (January 1989), Actuarial Study No. 104 (October 1991) and Actuarial Study No. 111 (December 1996).

As the complexity of the OASDI program has increased over the years, the methods used to prepare actuarial estimates for the program have increased in complexity as well. Legislative changes, periodic reviews from various technical advisory panels, and improved actuarial methods have resulted in a substantial amount of detail being added to program estimates. The detail allows the short-range staff to monitor program dynamics more closely, and hopefully improve the accuracy and utility of the estimates. The complexity is evident from the 200+ tables shown in this study which provide only a summary of the detail of trust fund projections.

The authors, Chris Motsiopoulos and Tim Zayatz, are to be commended for their painstaking effort in preparing a document of this scope. I would also like to thank Steve McKay for his overall guidance and careful review of the various drafts of this study. His efforts contributed significantly to the accuracy and clarity of this presentation. As we have indicated in previous editions, the size of the study prevents us from publishing full, updated reports each year. However, the authors have automated production of the tables, for which we expect to have more frequent updates available on the Social Security Administration's website at www.socialsecurity.gov/OACT/NOTES/actstud.html. Printed copies of the study are available upon request at the website. Finally, readers are welcome to provide comments or suggestions regarding any of the material contained within. Such feedback will improve future versions of this actuarial study, and may result in improvements to estimation methods. Comments to the authors can be submitted at either the the following address:

Social Security Administration
Office of the Chief Actuary
Room 700, Altmeyer Bldg.
Baltimore, MD 21235

Eli N. Donkar, Ph.D., A.S.A., M.A.A.A.

Deputy Chief Actuary

List of Studies
December 26, 2001