Short-Range Actuarial Projections of the Old-Age, Survivors, and Disability Insurance Program, 2001
Actuarial Study No. 115
Chris Motsiopoulos and Tim Zayatz, A.S.A.
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Contents

I. BACKGROUND

II. ASSUMPTIONS

A. ECONOMIC ASSUMPTIONS
1. Gross Domestic Product
2. Covered Wages
3. Consumer Price Index
4. Real-Wage Differential
5. Unemployment
6. Labor Force
7. Indexing Wages
8. Cost-of-Living Adjustment
9. Nominal Interest Rates
10. Effective Interest Rates
B. DEMOGRAPHIC ASSUMPTIONS
1. Fertility Rate
2. Death Rate
3. Life Expectancy
4. Immigration
C. PROGRAMMATIC ASSUMPTIONS
1. Coverage Rate
2. Fully Insured
3. Disability Insured
4. Disability Incidence Rate
5. Disability Termination Rate

III. BENEFIT PAYMENTS

A. NUMBER OF DISABILITY INSURANCE (DI) BENEFICIARIES
1. Awards and Incidence Rates
2. Terminations
3. In Force
4. Withheld (Suspensions)
5. Current-Payment Status
6. Dependents of Disabled Workers
B. NUMBER OF OLD-AGE AND SURVIVORS INSURANCE (OASI) BENEFICIARIES
1. Retired Workers and Insured Widow(er)s
a. In Force
b. Awards
c. Withheld
d. Current-Payment Status
e. Semiannual Retired Worker Projections
2. Minor Children
3. Disabled Children
4. Student Children
5. Semiannual Child Projections
6. Young Spouses
7. Mothers and Fathers
8. Semiannual Young Spouses and Mothers and Fathers
9. Disabled Widows and Widowers
10. Aged Spouses and Uninsured Widows and Widowers
11. Parents
12. Special Age-72 Beneficiaries
13. OASDI Beneficiaries
C. AVERAGE BENEFIT AT AWARD
1. Sample Data
2. Sample Adjustments
3. Sample Earnings
4. Earnings Prior to 1951
5. Other Considerations
6. Benefit Calculations
7. Results
D. DISABILITY INSURANCE BENEFIT PAYMENTS
1. Average Benefit
2. Current-Payment Benefits
3. Non-Current-Payment Benefits
E. OLD-AGE AND SURVIVORS INSURANCE BENEFIT PAYMENTS
1. Average Benefit
2. Current-Payment Benefits
3. Non-Current-Payment Benefits
4. Lump-Sum Death Benefits
5. Dual-Entitlement Benefits
6. Quarterly Benefit Payments

IV. TRUST FUND INCOME AND OUTGO

A. TRUST FUND INCOME
1. FICA and SECA
2. State Deposits
3. Adjustments
4. Refunds
5. Taxation of Benefits
6. Military Service Payments
7. Benefits to Uninsured Persons
8. Interest
B. TRUST FUND OUTGO
1. Unnegotiated Checks
2. Vocational Rehabilitation
3. Railroad Board Interchange
4. Administrative Expenses
C. TRUST FUND PROGRESS
1. OASI Trust Fund
2. DI Trust Fund

V. ESTIMATES BASED ON ALTERNATIVE ASSUMPTIONS

A. LOW-COST ASSUMPTIONS
B. HIGH-COST ASSUMPTIONS

Appendices

A. DETERMINATION OF THE WAGE BASE
B. DISABLED WORKER INCIDENCE AND AWARDS
C. DISABLED WORKER ADJUSTED INCIDENCE RATE
D. DISABLED WORKER TERMINATIONS
E. DURATION ANALYSIS
F. AVERAGE AGE OF DISABLED WORKERS
G. DISABLED WORKER PROJECTION BY SINGLE-YEAR-OF-AGE
H. GLOSSARY
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December 26, 2001