Short-Range Actuarial Projections of the Old-Age, Survivors, and Disability Insurance Program, 2001
Actuarial Study No. 115
Chris Motsiopoulos and Tim Zayatz, A.S.A. |
||
Year |
65-NRA 1
|
|||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Male |
||||||||||||
13.30 |
94.78 |
72.23 |
56.65 |
45.01 |
30.98 |
21.76 |
10.95 |
5.96 |
2.78 |
1.15 |
14.67 |
|
13.02 |
51.12 |
59.80 |
58.65 |
69.83 |
69.52 |
57.29 |
39.10 |
23.77 |
6.39 |
1.84 |
30.29 |
|
8.81 |
30.01 |
31.72 |
23.45 |
15.45 |
12.85 |
10.03 |
7.34 |
4.75 |
3.68 |
1.86 |
8.38 |
|
11.35 |
24.84 |
29.55 |
23.38 |
18.33 |
13.43 |
11.31 |
8.16 |
5.54 |
5.35 |
2.03 |
10.26 |
|
33.47 |
18.81 |
21.91 |
18.52 |
14.40 |
10.72 |
8.81 |
6.73 |
5.17 |
5.09 |
1.71 |
8.55 |
|
4.66 |
21.66 |
23.44 |
19.08 |
14.40 |
11.31 |
9.31 |
7.02 |
5.12 |
5.46 |
1.28 |
8.98 |
|
17.98 |
21.15 |
20.63 |
18.11 |
13.80 |
10.81 |
8.34 |
6.54 |
4.50 |
4.63 |
1.40 |
8.33 |
|
26.39 |
26.00 |
24.94 |
22.71 |
17.25 |
12.75 |
10.04 |
7.07 |
4.48 |
4.08 |
1.10 |
9.53 |
|
7.66 |
36.72 |
35.61 |
29.55 |
22.38 |
17.34 |
11.54 |
7.92 |
4.84 |
4.08 |
1.49 |
11.71 |
|
24.34 |
39.06 |
38.09 |
31.76 |
24.39 |
17.82 |
12.16 |
7.74 |
4.32 |
3.85 |
1.49 |
11.92 |
|
33.79 |
49.52 |
60.77 |
58.25 |
55.05 |
49.19 |
38.01 |
21.61 |
9.91 |
5.92 |
5.76 |
27.30 |
|
26.05 |
35.02 |
40.64 |
30.42 |
23.35 |
17.23 |
12.20 |
6.76 |
3.16 |
3.02 |
2.30 |
10.65 |
|
3.94 |
33.57 |
43.56 |
34.58 |
24.96 |
19.00 |
13.94 |
8.28 |
5.05 |
3.73 |
2.80 |
12.01 |
|
21.22 |
30.61 |
49.75 |
43.29 |
32.98 |
23.39 |
16.47 |
9.83 |
5.15 |
3.86 |
3.35 |
14.07 |
|
16.66 |
24.14 |
38.88 |
33.97 |
25.82 |
18.34 |
12.92 |
7.69 |
4.05 |
3.03 |
2.63 |
10.78 |
|
15.29 |
22.20 |
35.53 |
31.06 |
23.63 |
16.78 |
11.83 |
7.06 |
3.73 |
2.78 |
2.41 |
9.66 |
|
13.74 |
20.13 |
31.88 |
27.86 |
21.25 |
15.08 |
10.63 |
6.36 |
3.37 |
2.50 |
2.13 |
8.46 |
|
13.79 |
20.30 |
31.96 |
27.94 |
21.36 |
15.12 |
10.66 |
6.39 |
3.37 |
2.51 |
2.07 |
8.27 |
|
13.50 |
19.93 |
31.25 |
27.44 |
20.95 |
14.78 |
10.42 |
6.25 |
3.27 |
2.45 |
1.98 |
7.88 |
|
13.26 |
19.60 |
30.73 |
27.07 |
20.60 |
14.49 |
10.23 |
6.14 |
3.20 |
2.38 |
1.91 |
7.55 |
|
12.89 |
19.05 |
29.93 |
26.42 |
20.00 |
14.07 |
9.95 |
5.97 |
3.13 |
2.32 |
1.82 |
7.16 |
|
12.90 |
19.07 |
29.98 |
26.48 |
19.96 |
14.09 |
9.94 |
5.96 |
3.13 |
2.36 |
1.81 |
7.03 |
|
12.76 |
18.84 |
29.67 |
26.22 |
19.71 |
13.97 |
9.82 |
5.89 |
3.10 |
2.34 |
2.03 |
6.88 |
|
12.67 |
18.65 |
29.45 |
26.03 |
19.60 |
13.89 |
9.72 |
5.83 |
3.07 |
2.27 |
2.00 |
6.72 |
|
Female |
||||||||||||
14.02 |
42.92 |
45.47 |
30.60 |
24.30 |
22.59 |
19.72 |
15.07 |
8.97 |
5.72 |
.67 |
12.26 |
|
22.73 |
41.90 |
46.99 |
50.03 |
62.15 |
63.20 |
56.90 |
31.83 |
19.89 |
4.75 |
1.10 |
24.67 |
|
.00 |
36.15 |
38.21 |
26.66 |
18.27 |
15.76 |
12.63 |
8.17 |
4.96 |
3.77 |
1.17 |
9.04 |
|
55.01 |
23.61 |
28.19 |
19.76 |
15.73 |
14.08 |
11.30 |
8.05 |
5.29 |
4.11 |
1.30 |
9.14 |
|
50.00 |
16.95 |
18.91 |
16.27 |
12.61 |
11.05 |
9.41 |
6.29 |
4.63 |
4.32 |
.90 |
7.69 |
|
8.19 |
17.41 |
19.27 |
15.89 |
13.42 |
11.77 |
9.83 |
6.61 |
4.57 |
3.95 |
.87 |
7.91 |
|
2.78 |
16.50 |
17.71 |
15.29 |
11.93 |
10.56 |
8.59 |
6.16 |
3.92 |
3.47 |
.99 |
7.23 |
|
9.45 |
20.10 |
21.28 |
18.41 |
14.14 |
12.40 |
10.01 |
6.29 |
3.92 |
2.84 |
.55 |
8.04 |
|
22.15 |
33.00 |
32.01 |
24.84 |
18.93 |
16.22 |
11.78 |
7.84 |
4.10 |
2.83 |
.95 |
10.18 |
|
25.20 |
36.70 |
33.05 |
26.64 |
20.66 |
16.08 |
12.31 |
7.72 |
3.91 |
2.62 |
1.21 |
10.35 |
|
24.26 |
44.20 |
42.68 |
39.88 |
34.56 |
27.53 |
20.66 |
11.57 |
5.42 |
3.18 |
3.37 |
15.82 |
|
10.79 |
40.48 |
34.05 |
27.44 |
21.26 |
18.24 |
14.19 |
8.75 |
4.23 |
2.58 |
2.37 |
10.87 |
|
3.36 |
32.95 |
36.28 |
26.31 |
22.10 |
17.49 |
14.33 |
8.97 |
4.90 |
3.21 |
1.86 |
10.96 |
|
11.49 |
28.05 |
39.17 |
34.73 |
26.14 |
20.61 |
16.19 |
10.42 |
5.71 |
3.24 |
2.35 |
12.55 |
|
8.87 |
21.43 |
29.93 |
26.57 |
19.94 |
15.75 |
12.37 |
7.96 |
4.37 |
2.48 |
1.80 |
9.43 |
|
7.89 |
19.13 |
26.65 |
23.63 |
17.71 |
14.02 |
11.02 |
7.11 |
3.92 |
2.21 |
1.60 |
8.25 |
|
6.91 |
16.83 |
23.39 |
20.67 |
15.54 |
12.30 |
9.66 |
6.25 |
3.44 |
1.95 |
1.38 |
7.08 |
|
6.79 |
16.60 |
23.02 |
20.32 |
15.34 |
12.10 |
9.51 |
6.16 |
3.37 |
1.91 |
1.32 |
6.81 |
|
6.53 |
15.96 |
22.12 |
19.55 |
14.77 |
11.61 |
9.13 |
5.90 |
3.22 |
1.82 |
1.24 |
6.39 |
|
6.34 |
15.53 |
21.53 |
19.09 |
14.39 |
11.29 |
8.88 |
5.74 |
3.13 |
1.76 |
1.18 |
6.08 |
|
6.05 |
14.84 |
20.59 |
18.28 |
13.73 |
10.78 |
8.48 |
5.49 |
3.00 |
1.69 |
1.10 |
5.67 |
|
5.98 |
14.69 |
20.38 |
18.10 |
13.54 |
10.66 |
8.39 |
5.42 |
2.97 |
1.70 |
1.08 |
5.50 |
|
5.85 |
14.36 |
19.92 |
17.70 |
13.21 |
10.44 |
8.20 |
5.29 |
2.90 |
1.66 |
1.20 |
5.31 |
|
5.76 |
14.07 |
19.52 |
17.36 |
12.97 |
10.25 |
8.03 |
5.18 |
2.85 |
1.60 |
1.17 |
5.13 |
|
Total |
||||||||||||
13.45 |
82.75 |
65.83 |
49.72 |
39.54 |
28.71 |
21.16 |
12.24 |
6.95 |
3.72 |
1.01 |
13.93 |
|
15.70 |
48.71 |
56.10 |
56.20 |
67.58 |
67.66 |
57.17 |
36.75 |
22.47 |
5.84 |
1.59 |
28.47 |
|
6.53 |
31.75 |
33.59 |
24.43 |
16.31 |
13.76 |
10.85 |
7.61 |
4.82 |
3.71 |
1.63 |
8.60 |
|
25.54 |
24.45 |
29.13 |
22.24 |
17.47 |
13.65 |
11.30 |
8.12 |
5.45 |
4.92 |
1.77 |
9.88 |
|
38.81 |
18.20 |
20.95 |
17.79 |
13.80 |
10.83 |
9.02 |
6.57 |
4.98 |
4.82 |
1.43 |
8.25 |
|
5.94 |
20.23 |
22.07 |
18.03 |
14.07 |
11.47 |
9.50 |
6.87 |
4.92 |
4.92 |
1.14 |
8.61 |
|
12.66 |
19.52 |
19.64 |
17.16 |
13.16 |
10.72 |
8.43 |
6.39 |
4.28 |
4.22 |
1.25 |
7.93 |
|
20.32 |
23.90 |
23.67 |
21.23 |
16.16 |
12.62 |
10.03 |
6.77 |
4.26 |
3.63 |
.90 |
8.98 |
|
13.12 |
35.36 |
34.31 |
27.87 |
21.14 |
16.92 |
11.63 |
7.89 |
4.55 |
3.62 |
1.29 |
11.13 |
|
24.68 |
38.18 |
36.22 |
29.88 |
23.00 |
17.15 |
12.22 |
7.73 |
4.15 |
3.38 |
1.39 |
11.31 |
|
30.18 |
47.51 |
53.88 |
51.23 |
47.21 |
40.68 |
31.04 |
17.44 |
8.06 |
4.85 |
4.86 |
22.73 |
|
20.59 |
37.12 |
38.04 |
29.24 |
22.52 |
17.64 |
13.03 |
7.60 |
3.62 |
2.85 |
2.33 |
10.74 |
|
3.72 |
33.32 |
40.61 |
31.24 |
23.79 |
18.38 |
14.10 |
8.58 |
4.99 |
3.52 |
2.43 |
11.57 |
|
17.52 |
29.59 |
45.38 |
39.74 |
30.13 |
22.22 |
16.35 |
10.09 |
5.39 |
3.60 |
2.95 |
13.42 |
|
13.65 |
23.06 |
35.11 |
30.81 |
23.31 |
17.23 |
12.68 |
7.81 |
4.19 |
2.79 |
2.29 |
10.20 |
|
12.43 |
20.97 |
31.74 |
27.82 |
21.06 |
15.59 |
11.47 |
7.08 |
3.82 |
2.53 |
2.07 |
9.04 |
|
11.12 |
18.81 |
28.25 |
24.67 |
18.73 |
13.85 |
10.20 |
6.31 |
3.40 |
2.26 |
1.81 |
7.85 |
|
11.11 |
18.83 |
28.13 |
24.51 |
18.67 |
13.77 |
10.14 |
6.28 |
3.37 |
2.25 |
1.75 |
7.62 |
|
10.84 |
18.36 |
27.35 |
23.85 |
18.15 |
13.35 |
9.84 |
6.09 |
3.25 |
2.17 |
1.66 |
7.21 |
|
10.62 |
17.99 |
26.81 |
23.41 |
17.73 |
13.03 |
9.61 |
5.95 |
3.17 |
2.10 |
1.59 |
6.88 |
|
10.29 |
17.39 |
25.95 |
22.67 |
17.07 |
12.55 |
9.27 |
5.74 |
3.07 |
2.04 |
1.50 |
6.48 |
|
10.28 |
17.34 |
25.91 |
22.62 |
16.93 |
12.49 |
9.22 |
5.71 |
3.06 |
2.06 |
1.49 |
6.32 |
|
10.15 |
17.08 |
25.54 |
22.29 |
16.61 |
12.31 |
9.06 |
5.61 |
3.01 |
2.03 |
1.66 |
6.16 |
|
10.07 |
16.85 |
25.25 |
22.04 |
16.42 |
12.16 |
8.92 |
5.53 |
2.96 |
1.97 |
1.63 |
5.98 |
1 See Glossary for definition of "Normal retirement age." |
· Historical rates computed as the ratio of (a) age-specific recovery terminations, to (b) exposure of disabled worker in force population.
· Future rates projected by historical trend and judgment.
Note: Future estimates based on 2001 Trustees Report intermediate set of assumptions.
List of Studies
December 26, 2001