Short-Range Actuarial Projections of the Old-Age, Survivors, and Disability Insurance Program, 2001
Actuarial Study No. 115
Chris Motsiopoulos and Tim Zayatz, A.S.A. |
||
Year |
65-NRA 1
|
|||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Male |
||||||||||||
4.84 |
5.91 |
4.36 |
4.19 |
4.07 |
3.28 |
2.37 |
2.11 |
1.88 |
2.40 |
24.39 |
3.23 |
|
1.45 |
2.62 |
1.68 |
1.13 |
1.22 |
1.26 |
.95 |
.87 |
.68 |
.92 |
8.68 |
1.21 |
|
5.87 |
2.20 |
1.54 |
1.17 |
1.05 |
1.22 |
1.00 |
.72 |
.68 |
1.44 |
8.91 |
1.38 |
|
3.78 |
2.45 |
2.19 |
1.64 |
1.66 |
1.48 |
1.19 |
.94 |
.76 |
2.74 |
3.04 |
1.70 |
|
4.78 |
2.38 |
1.78 |
1.32 |
1.38 |
1.32 |
1.15 |
1.02 |
.85 |
2.81 |
3.61 |
1.66 |
|
.00 |
1.30 |
.93 |
.57 |
.42 |
.33 |
.30 |
.36 |
.33 |
3.10 |
21.61 |
1.64 |
|
1.50 |
1.38 |
.81 |
.57 |
.43 |
.39 |
.32 |
.30 |
.35 |
3.05 |
23.54 |
1.61 |
|
1.76 |
1.30 |
.75 |
.57 |
.46 |
.39 |
.33 |
.32 |
.37 |
3.04 |
22.74 |
1.53 |
|
1.91 |
2.50 |
1.43 |
1.17 |
.93 |
.82 |
.61 |
.49 |
.40 |
2.84 |
23.83 |
1.73 |
|
4.06 |
2.54 |
1.36 |
1.11 |
.85 |
.69 |
.54 |
.50 |
.36 |
2.75 |
22.00 |
1.59 |
|
.00 |
1.45 |
.74 |
.54 |
.39 |
.28 |
.29 |
.24 |
.26 |
2.79 |
23.17 |
1.38 |
|
2.00 |
1.98 |
.96 |
.81 |
.43 |
.41 |
.32 |
.29 |
.29 |
2.51 |
24.54 |
1.39 |
|
7.87 |
2.99 |
1.73 |
1.33 |
1.09 |
1.13 |
.98 |
.84 |
.58 |
2.81 |
24.20 |
1.87 |
|
.00 |
1.69 |
2.44 |
1.60 |
1.62 |
1.54 |
1.41 |
1.19 |
.77 |
3.01 |
32.33 |
2.34 |
|
.00 |
1.20 |
1.75 |
1.14 |
1.16 |
1.10 |
1.01 |
.84 |
.55 |
2.13 |
23.12 |
1.66 |
|
.00 |
1.20 |
1.75 |
1.14 |
1.16 |
1.10 |
1.01 |
.84 |
.54 |
2.12 |
23.12 |
1.66 |
|
.00 |
1.20 |
1.75 |
1.13 |
1.16 |
1.10 |
1.00 |
.84 |
.54 |
2.11 |
22.66 |
1.82 |
|
.00 |
1.20 |
1.76 |
1.13 |
1.16 |
1.10 |
1.00 |
.85 |
.55 |
2.16 |
22.00 |
1.97 |
|
.00 |
1.20 |
1.75 |
1.14 |
1.16 |
1.10 |
1.00 |
.85 |
.55 |
2.21 |
21.53 |
2.13 |
|
.00 |
1.20 |
1.75 |
1.15 |
1.16 |
1.10 |
1.00 |
.85 |
.55 |
2.15 |
21.13 |
2.29 |
|
.00 |
1.20 |
1.75 |
1.15 |
1.16 |
1.10 |
1.00 |
.85 |
.55 |
2.06 |
20.68 |
2.48 |
|
.00 |
1.20 |
1.75 |
1.15 |
1.16 |
1.10 |
1.00 |
.85 |
.55 |
2.11 |
20.59 |
2.69 |
|
.00 |
1.20 |
1.75 |
1.15 |
1.16 |
1.10 |
1.00 |
.85 |
.55 |
2.20 |
23.28 |
2.87 |
|
.00 |
1.20 |
1.75 |
1.16 |
1.16 |
1.10 |
1.00 |
.84 |
.55 |
2.18 |
23.13 |
2.82 |
|
Female |
||||||||||||
9.35 |
6.96 |
5.16 |
4.34 |
2.90 |
2.23 |
1.46 |
1.29 |
1.37 |
1.75 |
17.08 |
2.28 |
|
.00 |
2.85 |
1.65 |
1.11 |
.81 |
.77 |
.57 |
.53 |
.49 |
.64 |
5.40 |
.82 |
|
.00 |
2.94 |
1.38 |
.89 |
.89 |
.97 |
.68 |
.61 |
.53 |
.98 |
5.09 |
.98 |
|
.00 |
3.11 |
1.87 |
2.00 |
1.64 |
1.41 |
.97 |
.86 |
.55 |
1.66 |
4.81 |
1.38 |
|
6.67 |
1.91 |
2.13 |
1.47 |
1.62 |
1.24 |
.88 |
.96 |
.75 |
1.96 |
4.20 |
1.42 |
|
2.73 |
.45 |
.97 |
.50 |
.40 |
.36 |
.38 |
.30 |
.34 |
1.78 |
16.70 |
1.16 |
|
.00 |
1.48 |
1.00 |
.64 |
.41 |
.35 |
.25 |
.29 |
.40 |
1.95 |
17.63 |
1.18 |
|
.00 |
1.52 |
.77 |
.54 |
.36 |
.33 |
.34 |
.37 |
.29 |
2.11 |
16.85 |
1.14 |
|
3.17 |
1.21 |
1.54 |
1.02 |
.78 |
.55 |
.47 |
.38 |
.34 |
1.88 |
19.33 |
1.25 |
|
6.30 |
1.34 |
1.27 |
.97 |
.72 |
.59 |
.46 |
.39 |
.35 |
1.75 |
17.41 |
1.15 |
|
.00 |
.95 |
.55 |
.53 |
.36 |
.35 |
.21 |
.28 |
.23 |
1.64 |
17.41 |
.94 |
|
.00 |
1.45 |
.63 |
.52 |
.42 |
.36 |
.33 |
.34 |
.31 |
1.72 |
19.96 |
1.03 |
|
.00 |
2.01 |
1.74 |
1.32 |
1.17 |
1.11 |
.75 |
.48 |
.29 |
1.60 |
19.27 |
1.28 |
|
2.87 |
.91 |
1.90 |
1.47 |
1.76 |
1.48 |
1.16 |
.65 |
.30 |
1.38 |
21.86 |
1.46 |
|
2.07 |
.65 |
1.36 |
1.05 |
1.26 |
1.06 |
.83 |
.46 |
.22 |
.97 |
15.63 |
1.03 |
|
2.07 |
.65 |
1.36 |
1.05 |
1.26 |
1.06 |
.83 |
.47 |
.22 |
.96 |
15.63 |
1.03 |
|
2.07 |
.65 |
1.36 |
1.06 |
1.26 |
1.06 |
.83 |
.47 |
.22 |
.96 |
15.31 |
1.12 |
|
2.06 |
.64 |
1.36 |
1.06 |
1.26 |
1.06 |
.83 |
.47 |
.22 |
.99 |
14.86 |
1.21 |
|
2.07 |
.64 |
1.36 |
1.06 |
1.25 |
1.05 |
.83 |
.47 |
.22 |
1.01 |
14.52 |
1.30 |
|
2.06 |
.64 |
1.36 |
1.05 |
1.25 |
1.05 |
.83 |
.47 |
.22 |
.98 |
14.25 |
1.39 |
|
2.06 |
.64 |
1.36 |
1.05 |
1.25 |
1.05 |
.83 |
.47 |
.22 |
.93 |
13.91 |
1.52 |
|
2.06 |
.64 |
1.36 |
1.05 |
1.26 |
1.05 |
.83 |
.47 |
.22 |
.96 |
13.85 |
1.64 |
|
2.06 |
.64 |
1.36 |
1.04 |
1.26 |
1.06 |
.83 |
.46 |
.22 |
1.01 |
15.66 |
1.74 |
|
2.07 |
.64 |
1.36 |
1.04 |
1.26 |
1.06 |
.83 |
.46 |
.22 |
1.00 |
15.60 |
1.71 |
|
Total |
||||||||||||
5.76 |
6.15 |
4.55 |
4.23 |
3.76 |
2.99 |
2.11 |
1.86 |
1.71 |
2.19 |
22.21 |
2.94 |
|
1.05 |
2.68 |
1.67 |
1.12 |
1.10 |
1.12 |
.83 |
.76 |
.62 |
.82 |
7.59 |
1.08 |
|
4.35 |
2.41 |
1.49 |
1.09 |
1.00 |
1.14 |
.90 |
.69 |
.63 |
1.29 |
7.61 |
1.25 |
|
2.55 |
2.66 |
2.09 |
1.75 |
1.65 |
1.46 |
1.11 |
.91 |
.69 |
2.37 |
3.66 |
1.59 |
|
5.39 |
2.23 |
1.89 |
1.37 |
1.46 |
1.29 |
1.06 |
1.00 |
.81 |
2.51 |
3.81 |
1.58 |
|
.99 |
1.01 |
.94 |
.54 |
.42 |
.34 |
.33 |
.34 |
.34 |
2.63 |
19.90 |
1.47 |
|
.97 |
1.42 |
.88 |
.59 |
.42 |
.38 |
.29 |
.30 |
.37 |
2.66 |
21.45 |
1.46 |
|
1.13 |
1.38 |
.75 |
.56 |
.43 |
.36 |
.33 |
.34 |
.34 |
2.70 |
20.61 |
1.39 |
|
2.38 |
2.03 |
1.47 |
1.12 |
.88 |
.72 |
.56 |
.44 |
.38 |
2.48 |
22.20 |
1.55 |
|
4.93 |
2.09 |
1.33 |
1.06 |
.80 |
.65 |
.51 |
.46 |
.36 |
2.37 |
20.30 |
1.42 |
|
.00 |
1.26 |
.67 |
.54 |
.38 |
.31 |
.26 |
.26 |
.24 |
2.34 |
21.00 |
1.20 |
|
1.29 |
1.78 |
.83 |
.69 |
.43 |
.39 |
.32 |
.31 |
.30 |
2.19 |
22.78 |
1.24 |
|
4.96 |
2.61 |
1.73 |
1.32 |
1.12 |
1.12 |
.88 |
.69 |
.45 |
2.32 |
22.27 |
1.63 |
|
1.10 |
1.38 |
2.22 |
1.54 |
1.68 |
1.52 |
1.30 |
.95 |
.56 |
2.33 |
28.16 |
1.97 |
|
.80 |
.98 |
1.59 |
1.10 |
1.20 |
1.08 |
.93 |
.68 |
.40 |
1.64 |
20.06 |
1.39 |
|
.80 |
.98 |
1.58 |
1.10 |
1.20 |
1.08 |
.93 |
.68 |
.40 |
1.62 |
20.00 |
1.38 |
|
.80 |
.98 |
1.58 |
1.10 |
1.20 |
1.08 |
.93 |
.67 |
.40 |
1.61 |
19.55 |
1.51 |
|
.79 |
.98 |
1.58 |
1.10 |
1.20 |
1.08 |
.93 |
.67 |
.40 |
1.64 |
18.96 |
1.63 |
|
.79 |
.98 |
1.58 |
1.10 |
1.20 |
1.08 |
.93 |
.67 |
.40 |
1.68 |
18.50 |
1.75 |
|
.79 |
.98 |
1.58 |
1.10 |
1.20 |
1.08 |
.92 |
.67 |
.40 |
1.63 |
18.15 |
1.88 |
|
.78 |
.98 |
1.58 |
1.10 |
1.20 |
1.08 |
.92 |
.67 |
.39 |
1.55 |
17.72 |
2.04 |
|
.78 |
.98 |
1.58 |
1.10 |
1.20 |
1.08 |
.92 |
.67 |
.39 |
1.59 |
17.61 |
2.21 |
|
.78 |
.98 |
1.58 |
1.10 |
1.21 |
1.08 |
.92 |
.67 |
.39 |
1.66 |
19.89 |
2.35 |
|
.78 |
.98 |
1.58 |
1.10 |
1.21 |
1.08 |
.92 |
.67 |
.39 |
1.64 |
19.77 |
2.30 |
1 See Glossary for definition of "Normal retirement age." |
· Historical rates computed as the ratio of (a) age-specific "other" terminations, to (b) exposure of disabled worker in force population.
· Future rates projected by historical trend and judgment.
Note: Future estimates based on 2001 Trustees Report intermediate set of assumptions.
List of Studies
December 26, 2001