Short-Range Actuarial Projections of the Old-Age, Survivors, and Disability Insurance Program, 2001
Actuarial Study No. 115
Chris Motsiopoulos and Tim Zayatz, A.S.A. |
||
Year |
65-NRA1
|
|||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Male |
||||||||||||
0.1 |
0.7 |
1.4 |
1.6 |
2.3 |
4.3 |
8.3 |
16.0 |
26.3 |
41.1 |
3.7 |
105.8 |
|
.1 |
.7 |
1.4 |
1.9 |
2.6 |
4.0 |
7.4 |
14.7 |
27.4 |
40.9 |
4.1 |
105.1 |
|
.5 |
1.3 |
2.3 |
3.2 |
4.4 |
6.9 |
12.4 |
24.0 |
39.9 |
4.8 |
99.6 |
||
.5 |
2.3 |
4.6 |
6.2 |
7.1 |
8.4 |
12.2 |
21.0 |
35.1 |
4.4 |
101.8 |
||
.5 |
2.5 |
5.2 |
7.3 |
8.4 |
9.5 |
12.9 |
21.0 |
35.0 |
4.3 |
106.6 |
||
.5 |
2.6 |
5.9 |
8.0 |
9.2 |
10.4 |
13.7 |
21.3 |
34.2 |
4.8 |
110.5 |
||
.5 |
2.6 |
6.6 |
9.2 |
10.3 |
11.4 |
14.9 |
22.4 |
34.5 |
4.7 |
117.1 |
||
.5 |
2.5 |
7.2 |
9.7 |
11.3 |
12.4 |
15.8 |
22.4 |
34.0 |
4.4 |
120.2 |
||
.4 |
2.3 |
6.9 |
10.1 |
11.7 |
13.2 |
16.0 |
22.4 |
33.3 |
4.4 |
120.7 |
||
.4 |
1.8 |
5.2 |
8.3 |
10.3 |
12.9 |
15.7 |
22.2 |
33.7 |
4.2 |
114.7 |
||
.3 |
1.3 |
3.2 |
5.7 |
8.3 |
11.3 |
15.5 |
22.5 |
32.3 |
4.3 |
104.6 |
||
.4 |
1.1 |
2.6 |
5.1 |
8.1 |
11.6 |
15.9 |
23.5 |
33.1 |
4.0 |
105.4 |
||
.3 |
1.0 |
2.4 |
4.9 |
8.1 |
12.0 |
16.9 |
24.2 |
33.3 |
4.2 |
107.3 |
||
.3 |
.9 |
2.2 |
4.7 |
8.2 |
12.4 |
17.9 |
24.6 |
32.9 |
4.1 |
108.2 |
||
.3 |
.8 |
2.0 |
4.4 |
8.1 |
12.6 |
18.3 |
25.5 |
33.7 |
4.0 |
109.9 |
||
.4 |
.9 |
2.0 |
4.2 |
8.1 |
13.0 |
18.6 |
26.9 |
35.4 |
4.1 |
113.5 |
||
.4 |
.9 |
1.9 |
4.0 |
8.0 |
13.4 |
19.0 |
28.1 |
37.4 |
5.7 |
118.8 |
||
.4 |
.9 |
1.8 |
3.9 |
7.9 |
13.6 |
19.6 |
29.7 |
39.2 |
7.2 |
124.3 |
||
.4 |
1.0 |
1.8 |
3.8 |
7.8 |
13.8 |
20.2 |
31.5 |
40.9 |
8.9 |
130.0 |
||
.4 |
1.0 |
1.7 |
3.7 |
7.5 |
13.9 |
20.8 |
32.6 |
43.2 |
10.9 |
135.8 |
||
.4 |
1.1 |
1.7 |
3.6 |
7.3 |
13.9 |
21.5 |
33.0 |
45.8 |
13.5 |
141.7 |
||
.4 |
1.1 |
1.8 |
3.5 |
7.0 |
13.8 |
22.0 |
33.7 |
47.7 |
15.9 |
147.1 |
||
.4 |
1.1 |
1.8 |
3.4 |
6.8 |
13.7 |
22.3 |
34.6 |
50.3 |
17.6 |
152.2 |
||
.4 |
1.1 |
1.9 |
3.3 |
6.6 |
13.4 |
22.6 |
35.7 |
53.2 |
17.4 |
155.7 |
||
Female |
||||||||||||
.2 |
.5 |
.7 |
.8 |
1.6 |
3.1 |
5.7 |
8.8 |
11.7 |
1.0 |
34.1 |
||
.3 |
.6 |
.9 |
1.1 |
1.7 |
3.0 |
5.6 |
9.7 |
13.2 |
1.6 |
37.7 |
||
.2 |
.5 |
.9 |
1.5 |
1.9 |
2.9 |
4.8 |
9.0 |
13.9 |
1.6 |
37.1 |
||
.2 |
.6 |
1.2 |
1.9 |
2.8 |
3.9 |
5.5 |
8.6 |
13.3 |
1.5 |
39.6 |
||
.2 |
.7 |
1.4 |
2.1 |
3.1 |
4.3 |
6.1 |
9.2 |
13.4 |
1.5 |
42.1 |
||
.3 |
.7 |
1.5 |
2.4 |
3.5 |
4.6 |
6.5 |
9.1 |
13.6 |
1.7 |
43.9 |
||
.2 |
.8 |
1.5 |
2.6 |
3.7 |
5.2 |
7.1 |
9.9 |
14.1 |
1.7 |
46.8 |
||
.2 |
.8 |
1.8 |
2.8 |
4.1 |
5.7 |
7.7 |
10.5 |
14.2 |
1.8 |
49.4 |
||
.2 |
.8 |
1.8 |
3.0 |
4.3 |
6.0 |
7.9 |
10.9 |
14.5 |
1.7 |
51.2 |
||
.2 |
.8 |
1.7 |
2.9 |
4.3 |
6.3 |
8.4 |
11.3 |
14.9 |
1.7 |
52.5 |
||
.2 |
.7 |
1.4 |
2.7 |
4.3 |
6.2 |
8.9 |
12.0 |
15.2 |
1.7 |
53.3 |
||
.2 |
.6 |
1.3 |
2.7 |
4.4 |
6.5 |
9.4 |
12.7 |
15.9 |
1.7 |
55.4 |
||
.2 |
.6 |
1.3 |
2.6 |
4.5 |
6.9 |
10.1 |
13.4 |
16.6 |
1.9 |
58.2 |
||
.2 |
.6 |
1.3 |
2.6 |
4.8 |
7.2 |
10.8 |
14.1 |
17.3 |
1.9 |
60.8 |
||
.2 |
.6 |
1.3 |
2.6 |
4.9 |
7.5 |
11.3 |
15.0 |
18.3 |
2.0 |
63.7 |
||
.2 |
.6 |
1.3 |
2.6 |
5.1 |
7.9 |
11.8 |
16.3 |
19.9 |
2.1 |
67.7 |
||
.2 |
.6 |
1.3 |
2.5 |
5.2 |
8.3 |
12.4 |
17.3 |
21.6 |
3.0 |
72.5 |
||
.2 |
.7 |
1.3 |
2.5 |
5.3 |
8.6 |
13.1 |
18.6 |
23.2 |
3.9 |
77.4 |
||
.3 |
.7 |
1.3 |
2.5 |
5.3 |
8.9 |
13.8 |
20.1 |
24.5 |
4.9 |
82.2 |
||
.3 |
.8 |
1.3 |
2.5 |
5.3 |
9.2 |
14.5 |
21.2 |
26.5 |
6.1 |
87.6 |
||
.3 |
.8 |
1.3 |
2.5 |
5.2 |
9.3 |
15.0 |
21.7 |
28.3 |
7.7 |
92.0 |
||
.3 |
.8 |
1.3 |
2.5 |
5.0 |
9.3 |
15.3 |
22.3 |
29.5 |
9.1 |
95.3 |
||
.3 |
.8 |
1.3 |
2.5 |
4.9 |
9.3 |
15.6 |
23.0 |
31.3 |
10.1 |
99.1 |
||
.3 |
.8 |
1.4 |
2.4 |
5.0 |
9.3 |
16.1 |
24.1 |
33.6 |
10.1 |
103.1 |
||
Total |
||||||||||||
.1 |
.9 |
1.8 |
2.3 |
3.1 |
5.9 |
11.5 |
21.6 |
35.1 |
52.7 |
4.7 |
139.8 |
|
.1 |
1.0 |
1.9 |
2.8 |
3.7 |
5.7 |
10.4 |
20.3 |
37.1 |
54.1 |
5.7 |
142.8 |
|
.7 |
1.8 |
3.2 |
4.6 |
6.3 |
9.8 |
17.2 |
33.0 |
53.8 |
6.3 |
136.7 |
||
.7 |
2.9 |
5.8 |
8.1 |
9.9 |
12.3 |
17.7 |
29.7 |
48.5 |
5.9 |
141.4 |
||
.8 |
3.2 |
6.7 |
9.4 |
11.5 |
13.8 |
18.9 |
30.2 |
48.4 |
5.8 |
148.7 |
||
.7 |
3.3 |
7.4 |
10.4 |
12.7 |
15.0 |
20.2 |
30.4 |
47.8 |
6.4 |
154.4 |
||
.7 |
3.3 |
8.1 |
11.7 |
14.1 |
16.6 |
22.0 |
32.3 |
48.5 |
6.5 |
163.8 |
||
.7 |
3.2 |
9.0 |
12.5 |
15.3 |
18.1 |
23.5 |
32.9 |
48.2 |
6.2 |
169.7 |
||
.7 |
3.0 |
8.6 |
13.1 |
15.9 |
19.2 |
23.9 |
33.4 |
47.9 |
6.1 |
171.9 |
||
.6 |
2.5 |
6.9 |
11.1 |
14.7 |
19.2 |
24.1 |
33.6 |
48.6 |
5.8 |
167.1 |
||
.5 |
1.9 |
4.6 |
8.4 |
12.6 |
17.4 |
24.4 |
34.4 |
47.5 |
6.0 |
158.0 |
||
.5 |
1.6 |
4.0 |
7.8 |
12.5 |
18.1 |
25.3 |
36.2 |
49.1 |
5.7 |
160.8 |
||
.5 |
1.6 |
3.7 |
7.5 |
12.6 |
18.9 |
27.0 |
37.7 |
49.9 |
6.0 |
165.4 |
||
.5 |
1.5 |
3.4 |
7.3 |
13.1 |
19.6 |
28.7 |
38.7 |
50.2 |
6.0 |
169.0 |
||
.5 |
1.4 |
3.3 |
7.0 |
13.1 |
20.1 |
29.7 |
40.5 |
52.0 |
6.0 |
173.6 |
||
.6 |
1.5 |
3.2 |
6.8 |
13.1 |
20.9 |
30.4 |
43.1 |
55.3 |
6.3 |
181.2 |
||
.6 |
1.5 |
3.2 |
6.6 |
13.2 |
21.6 |
31.5 |
45.4 |
59.0 |
8.7 |
191.3 |
||
.6 |
1.6 |
3.1 |
6.4 |
13.2 |
22.2 |
32.7 |
48.3 |
62.4 |
11.1 |
201.6 |
||
.7 |
1.7 |
3.0 |
6.3 |
13.1 |
22.7 |
34.0 |
51.6 |
65.4 |
13.8 |
212.2 |
||
.7 |
1.8 |
3.0 |
6.2 |
12.8 |
23.1 |
35.3 |
53.8 |
69.7 |
17.0 |
223.4 |
||
.7 |
1.9 |
3.0 |
6.2 |
12.5 |
23.2 |
36.4 |
54.7 |
74.0 |
21.2 |
233.6 |
||
.7 |
1.9 |
3.1 |
6.0 |
12.0 |
23.1 |
37.2 |
56.0 |
77.3 |
25.0 |
242.4 |
||
.7 |
1.9 |
3.2 |
5.9 |
11.7 |
23.0 |
37.9 |
57.7 |
81.6 |
27.7 |
251.3 |
||
.7 |
2.0 |
3.3 |
5.8 |
11.6 |
22.7 |
38.7 |
59.8 |
86.9 |
27.5 |
258.8 |
1 See Glossary for definition of "Normal retirement age." 2 Fewer than 50. |
· Historical figures based on SSA administrative records.
· Projected terminations computed by applying projected death termination rates to exposure of disabled worker in force population.
Note: Future estimates based on 2001 Trustees Report intermediate set of assumptions.
List of Studies
December 26, 2001