Short-Range Actuarial Projections of the Old-Age, Survivors, and Disability Insurance Program, 2001
Actuarial Study No. 115
Chris Motsiopoulos and Tim Zayatz, A.S.A. |
||
Year |
65-NRA1
|
|||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Male |
||||||||||||
1.9 |
3.7 |
3.1 |
3.0 |
3.2 |
3.5 |
2.8 |
2.3 |
1.6 |
0.1 |
25.1 |
||
1.0 |
3.5 |
5.3 |
6.9 |
8.2 |
10.1 |
11.0 |
11.1 |
4.1 |
.1 |
61.3 |
||
.5 |
1.9 |
2.2 |
1.9 |
1.6 |
1.5 |
1.7 |
1.8 |
2.2 |
.1 |
15.4 |
||
.4 |
2.0 |
3.0 |
3.1 |
2.7 |
2.4 |
2.0 |
2.0 |
3.0 |
.1 |
20.8 |
||
.3 |
1.5 |
2.5 |
2.6 |
2.4 |
2.0 |
1.8 |
2.0 |
2.8 |
.1 |
18.1 |
||
.5 |
1.7 |
2.8 |
2.9 |
2.7 |
2.4 |
2.0 |
2.0 |
3.1 |
.1 |
20.1 |
||
.5 |
1.6 |
2.8 |
3.1 |
2.8 |
2.4 |
2.1 |
1.9 |
2.6 |
.1 |
19.9 |
||
.6 |
2.0 |
3.7 |
4.1 |
3.6 |
3.2 |
2.4 |
1.9 |
2.4 |
.1 |
24.0 |
||
.8 |
2.9 |
4.8 |
5.6 |
5.2 |
4.0 |
2.9 |
2.2 |
2.4 |
.1 |
30.9 |
||
.7 |
3.0 |
5.0 |
6.2 |
5.6 |
4.5 |
3.1 |
2.1 |
2.3 |
.1 |
32.6 |
||
.9 |
4.5 |
8.8 |
13.8 |
16.1 |
14.4 |
9.1 |
5.0 |
3.7 |
.4 |
76.6 |
||
.6 |
2.8 |
4.2 |
5.6 |
5.6 |
4.6 |
3.0 |
1.7 |
1.9 |
.1 |
30.2 |
||
.6 |
2.8 |
4.6 |
5.9 |
6.3 |
5.5 |
3.9 |
2.8 |
2.4 |
.2 |
34.9 |
||
.6 |
3.0 |
5.5 |
7.6 |
7.9 |
6.7 |
4.9 |
2.9 |
2.5 |
.2 |
41.8 |
||
.5 |
2.2 |
4.1 |
5.6 |
6.2 |
5.4 |
4.0 |
2.4 |
2.1 |
.2 |
32.7 |
||
.5 |
2.1 |
3.6 |
4.9 |
5.6 |
5.1 |
3.7 |
2.4 |
2.0 |
.2 |
30.1 |
||
.5 |
1.9 |
3.1 |
4.3 |
5.0 |
4.7 |
3.4 |
2.2 |
1.9 |
.2 |
27.3 |
||
.5 |
2.0 |
3.0 |
4.1 |
5.0 |
4.8 |
3.5 |
2.4 |
2.0 |
.3 |
27.6 |
||
.5 |
2.1 |
2.9 |
3.9 |
4.8 |
4.8 |
3.6 |
2.4 |
2.0 |
.3 |
27.3 |
||
.5 |
2.2 |
2.8 |
3.8 |
4.5 |
4.7 |
3.6 |
2.5 |
2.1 |
.4 |
27.0 |
||
.5 |
2.2 |
2.7 |
3.6 |
4.2 |
4.6 |
3.6 |
2.4 |
2.2 |
.4 |
26.5 |
||
.5 |
2.3 |
2.8 |
3.5 |
4.1 |
4.6 |
3.7 |
2.5 |
2.3 |
.5 |
26.8 |
||
.5 |
2.3 |
2.9 |
3.4 |
4.0 |
4.5 |
3.7 |
2.5 |
2.4 |
.6 |
26.8 |
||
.5 |
2.3 |
3.0 |
3.3 |
3.9 |
4.4 |
3.8 |
2.6 |
2.5 |
.6 |
26.8 |
||
Female |
||||||||||||
.3 |
.7 |
.6 |
.6 |
.9 |
1.3 |
1.8 |
1.7 |
1.5 |
9.3 |
|||
.3 |
1.1 |
1.8 |
2.5 |
3.1 |
4.4 |
4.2 |
4.7 |
1.6 |
23.8 |
|||
.2 |
.9 |
1.1 |
1.0 |
.9 |
.9 |
.9 |
.9 |
1.1 |
8.0 |
|||
.2 |
.9 |
1.2 |
1.3 |
1.4 |
1.3 |
1.1 |
1.1 |
1.2 |
9.6 |
|||
.2 |
.6 |
1.0 |
1.2 |
1.2 |
1.2 |
.9 |
1.0 |
1.3 |
8.6 |
|||
.2 |
.7 |
1.1 |
1.4 |
1.5 |
1.4 |
1.1 |
1.0 |
1.2 |
9.7 |
|||
.2 |
.7 |
1.2 |
1.4 |
1.5 |
1.4 |
1.2 |
1.0 |
1.1 |
9.8 |
|||
.3 |
.9 |
1.6 |
1.8 |
2.0 |
1.9 |
1.4 |
1.1 |
.9 |
11.9 |
|||
.4 |
1.5 |
2.3 |
2.6 |
2.9 |
2.5 |
1.9 |
1.2 |
1.0 |
16.3 |
|||
.4 |
1.5 |
2.5 |
3.1 |
3.2 |
2.9 |
2.1 |
1.3 |
1.0 |
18.0 |
|||
.5 |
2.0 |
3.7 |
5.4 |
5.8 |
5.2 |
3.5 |
1.9 |
1.3 |
.1 |
29.4 |
||
.4 |
1.5 |
2.5 |
3.4 |
4.1 |
3.8 |
2.8 |
1.6 |
1.1 |
.1 |
21.4 |
||
.4 |
1.6 |
2.4 |
3.6 |
4.1 |
4.2 |
3.2 |
2.0 |
1.4 |
.1 |
22.9 |
||
.3 |
1.6 |
3.1 |
4.3 |
5.1 |
5.0 |
4.0 |
2.5 |
1.5 |
.1 |
27.7 |
||
.3 |
1.3 |
2.4 |
3.2 |
4.0 |
4.0 |
3.2 |
2.1 |
1.2 |
.1 |
21.8 |
||
.3 |
1.2 |
2.1 |
2.8 |
3.6 |
3.8 |
3.0 |
2.0 |
1.2 |
.1 |
20.0 |
||
.3 |
1.1 |
1.9 |
2.5 |
3.2 |
3.4 |
2.8 |
1.9 |
1.1 |
.1 |
18.1 |
||
.3 |
1.1 |
1.8 |
2.4 |
3.2 |
3.5 |
2.8 |
2.0 |
1.2 |
.1 |
18.4 |
||
.3 |
1.1 |
1.7 |
2.3 |
3.1 |
3.5 |
2.9 |
2.0 |
1.2 |
.1 |
18.2 |
||
.3 |
1.1 |
1.7 |
2.3 |
3.0 |
3.4 |
2.9 |
2.0 |
1.2 |
.2 |
18.1 |
||
.2 |
1.1 |
1.6 |
2.2 |
2.8 |
3.3 |
2.9 |
2.0 |
1.3 |
.2 |
17.7 |
||
.2 |
1.1 |
1.7 |
2.1 |
2.7 |
3.4 |
2.9 |
2.1 |
1.4 |
.3 |
17.9 |
||
.2 |
1.1 |
1.7 |
2.1 |
2.6 |
3.3 |
3.0 |
2.1 |
1.4 |
.3 |
17.9 |
||
.2 |
1.1 |
1.7 |
2.0 |
2.6 |
3.2 |
3.0 |
2.2 |
1.5 |
.3 |
17.8 |
||
Total |
||||||||||||
2.2 |
4.4 |
3.7 |
3.6 |
4.0 |
4.8 |
4.6 |
3.9 |
3.0 |
.1 |
34.4 |
||
1.3 |
4.6 |
7.1 |
9.4 |
11.4 |
14.5 |
15.2 |
15.8 |
5.7 |
.2 |
85.1 |
||
.8 |
2.8 |
3.3 |
2.8 |
2.6 |
2.4 |
2.5 |
2.8 |
3.3 |
.2 |
23.5 |
||
.6 |
2.9 |
4.2 |
4.4 |
4.1 |
3.6 |
3.1 |
3.1 |
4.1 |
.2 |
30.4 |
||
.5 |
2.1 |
3.5 |
3.8 |
3.6 |
3.2 |
2.7 |
2.9 |
4.1 |
.1 |
26.7 |
||
.7 |
2.4 |
3.9 |
4.3 |
4.2 |
3.8 |
3.2 |
3.0 |
4.3 |
.1 |
29.9 |
||
.7 |
2.3 |
4.0 |
4.5 |
4.3 |
3.8 |
3.3 |
2.8 |
3.7 |
.1 |
29.7 |
||
.9 |
2.9 |
5.3 |
5.9 |
5.6 |
5.1 |
3.8 |
3.0 |
3.3 |
.1 |
35.9 |
||
1.2 |
4.3 |
7.1 |
8.2 |
8.1 |
6.5 |
4.8 |
3.4 |
3.4 |
.1 |
47.3 |
||
1.1 |
4.5 |
7.5 |
9.2 |
8.8 |
7.4 |
5.2 |
3.3 |
3.3 |
.1 |
50.6 |
||
1.3 |
6.5 |
12.5 |
19.2 |
21.9 |
19.6 |
12.6 |
6.9 |
4.9 |
.5 |
106.0 |
||
1.0 |
4.3 |
6.8 |
9.0 |
9.7 |
8.5 |
5.8 |
3.3 |
3.0 |
.2 |
51.5 |
||
.9 |
4.3 |
6.9 |
9.5 |
10.5 |
9.7 |
7.1 |
4.8 |
3.8 |
.3 |
57.8 |
||
.9 |
4.6 |
8.6 |
11.9 |
13.0 |
11.8 |
8.9 |
5.5 |
4.1 |
.3 |
69.5 |
||
.8 |
3.5 |
6.5 |
8.9 |
10.2 |
9.5 |
7.2 |
4.5 |
3.3 |
.3 |
54.5 |
||
.8 |
3.2 |
5.7 |
7.8 |
9.2 |
8.9 |
6.7 |
4.4 |
3.2 |
.2 |
50.1 |
||
.7 |
3.0 |
5.0 |
6.7 |
8.3 |
8.2 |
6.2 |
4.1 |
3.0 |
.3 |
45.4 |
||
.8 |
3.1 |
4.8 |
6.5 |
8.2 |
8.3 |
6.4 |
4.3 |
3.2 |
.4 |
46.0 |
||
.7 |
3.2 |
4.6 |
6.2 |
7.8 |
8.2 |
6.4 |
4.4 |
3.2 |
.5 |
45.4 |
||
.7 |
3.3 |
4.4 |
6.1 |
7.5 |
8.2 |
6.5 |
4.5 |
3.3 |
.5 |
45.1 |
||
.7 |
3.3 |
4.4 |
5.8 |
7.0 |
7.9 |
6.5 |
4.4 |
3.4 |
.7 |
44.2 |
||
.7 |
3.4 |
4.5 |
5.7 |
6.8 |
7.9 |
6.7 |
4.6 |
3.7 |
.8 |
44.7 |
||
.7 |
3.5 |
4.6 |
5.5 |
6.6 |
7.8 |
6.7 |
4.7 |
3.8 |
.9 |
44.6 |
||
.7 |
3.5 |
4.7 |
5.3 |
6.5 |
7.6 |
6.7 |
4.8 |
3.9 |
.8 |
44.6 |
1 See Glossary for definition of "Normal retirement age." 2 Fewer than 50. |
· Historical figures based on SSA administrative records.
· Projected terminations computed by applying projected recovery termination rates to exposure of disabled worker in force population.
Note: Future estimates based on 2001 Trustees Report intermediate set of assumptions.
List of Studies
December 26, 2001