Short-Range Actuarial Projections of the Old-Age, Survivors, and Disability Insurance Program, 2001
Actuarial Study No. 115
Chris Motsiopoulos and Tim Zayatz, A.S.A. |
||
Year |
65-NRA1
|
|||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Male |
||||||||||||
6.19 |
6.92 |
6.92 |
6.92 |
6.93 |
6.92 |
6.92 |
6.92 |
6.92 |
6.92 |
... |
6.92 |
|
18.87 |
20.96 |
17.98 |
11.67 |
9.25 |
7.34 |
5.75 |
4.26 |
2.88 |
1.78 |
... |
4.64 |
|
33.71 |
38.46 |
35.49 |
28.43 |
22.04 |
17.38 |
13.26 |
10.36 |
7.26 |
4.19 |
... |
11.47 |
|
13.76 |
45.22 |
56.88 |
41.14 |
31.67 |
23.33 |
17.34 |
12.76 |
9.18 |
5.68 |
... |
17.18 |
|
27.61 |
35.50 |
51.42 |
39.87 |
30.77 |
22.74 |
17.30 |
12.38 |
8.92 |
5.59 |
... |
16.79 |
|
21.93 |
31.75 |
43.58 |
36.95 |
28.51 |
22.01 |
16.38 |
11.80 |
8.42 |
5.35 |
... |
15.91 |
|
20.15 |
34.40 |
42.27 |
36.06 |
28.75 |
21.73 |
16.18 |
11.51 |
8.53 |
5.35 |
... |
15.95 |
|
17.54 |
41.11 |
46.93 |
40.18 |
31.46 |
24.07 |
17.33 |
12.01 |
8.72 |
5.48 |
... |
17.25 |
|
17.26 |
52.45 |
55.16 |
47.66 |
38.66 |
30.21 |
20.74 |
14.36 |
10.01 |
6.32 |
... |
20.57 |
|
19.16 |
61.09 |
67.35 |
59.36 |
47.53 |
36.66 |
25.06 |
16.73 |
10.84 |
7.07 |
... |
24.31 |
|
20.16 |
59.23 |
73.54 |
59.70 |
47.83 |
36.37 |
25.30 |
17.22 |
11.16 |
6.56 |
... |
23.96 |
|
32.95 |
58.85 |
74.46 |
64.33 |
50.92 |
38.87 |
27.83 |
18.40 |
11.93 |
6.82 |
... |
25.10 |
|
18.07 |
57.30 |
76.29 |
65.17 |
53.98 |
39.91 |
28.73 |
18.68 |
12.49 |
7.47 |
... |
25.57 |
|
23.13 |
54.65 |
68.76 |
62.58 |
51.77 |
39.69 |
28.91 |
18.51 |
12.23 |
7.22 |
... |
24.54 |
|
29.99 |
54.76 |
73.16 |
66.98 |
56.10 |
43.97 |
33.17 |
18.48 |
12.24 |
7.23 |
... |
25.79 |
|
29.81 |
54.90 |
73.22 |
67.03 |
56.20 |
44.08 |
33.30 |
18.51 |
12.31 |
7.25 |
... |
25.36 |
|
29.95 |
55.19 |
73.50 |
67.20 |
56.46 |
44.31 |
33.52 |
18.52 |
12.33 |
7.27 |
5.03 |
24.87 |
|
29.98 |
55.36 |
73.74 |
67.48 |
56.78 |
44.55 |
33.76 |
18.54 |
12.30 |
7.23 |
5.03 |
24.36 |
|
29.94 |
55.47 |
74.01 |
67.88 |
57.09 |
44.75 |
33.98 |
18.54 |
12.23 |
7.15 |
5.03 |
23.85 |
|
30.06 |
55.53 |
74.30 |
68.29 |
57.37 |
44.97 |
34.23 |
18.53 |
12.21 |
7.16 |
5.03 |
23.38 |
|
30.17 |
55.52 |
74.59 |
68.70 |
57.61 |
45.22 |
34.49 |
18.52 |
12.23 |
7.25 |
5.03 |
22.94 |
|
30.10 |
55.51 |
74.89 |
69.03 |
57.82 |
45.49 |
34.73 |
18.50 |
12.24 |
7.28 |
5.03 |
22.55 |
|
29.88 |
55.51 |
75.30 |
69.49 |
58.20 |
45.97 |
35.09 |
18.48 |
12.25 |
7.22 |
5.03 |
22.34 |
|
29.69 |
55.43 |
75.63 |
69.83 |
58.58 |
46.35 |
35.35 |
18.47 |
12.25 |
7.14 |
5.03 |
22.07 |
|
Female |
||||||||||||
14.41 |
4.95 |
5.00 |
5.12 |
5.15 |
5.13 |
5.14 |
5.14 |
5.13 |
5.14 |
... |
5.13 |
|
25.29 |
18.77 |
14.33 |
7.74 |
5.50 |
5.20 |
3.88 |
3.21 |
2.17 |
1.29 |
... |
3.14 |
|
10.20 |
32.04 |
25.32 |
18.03 |
13.63 |
10.37 |
9.94 |
7.60 |
5.12 |
2.69 |
... |
7.39 |
|
14.49 |
34.89 |
42.49 |
27.03 |
22.13 |
19.11 |
14.87 |
10.44 |
7.53 |
4.35 |
... |
12.73 |
|
10.48 |
26.85 |
35.49 |
26.33 |
20.71 |
18.16 |
14.59 |
10.30 |
7.25 |
4.25 |
... |
12.26 |
|
19.74 |
21.77 |
30.36 |
23.51 |
18.68 |
16.73 |
13.81 |
9.59 |
6.97 |
4.20 |
... |
11.51 |
|
1.78 |
22.22 |
28.93 |
22.66 |
17.83 |
16.30 |
13.45 |
9.60 |
6.98 |
4.04 |
... |
11.34 |
|
9.98 |
25.41 |
30.06 |
24.46 |
18.64 |
16.03 |
13.94 |
9.95 |
7.12 |
4.02 |
... |
11.75 |
|
7.84 |
27.49 |
32.21 |
26.22 |
20.66 |
17.17 |
14.40 |
10.37 |
7.49 |
4.23 |
... |
12.46 |
|
22.50 |
33.87 |
35.92 |
29.32 |
22.83 |
18.84 |
14.49 |
10.81 |
7.23 |
4.45 |
... |
13.17 |
|
23.50 |
36.58 |
38.21 |
30.68 |
23.91 |
19.54 |
15.66 |
11.14 |
7.35 |
4.58 |
... |
13.56 |
|
13.30 |
34.76 |
41.59 |
33.65 |
25.91 |
20.84 |
16.69 |
11.77 |
7.88 |
4.57 |
... |
14.27 |
|
18.63 |
32.45 |
42.73 |
33.58 |
26.45 |
21.08 |
16.74 |
11.94 |
8.30 |
4.86 |
... |
14.36 |
|
8.65 |
31.44 |
37.20 |
29.40 |
24.54 |
20.04 |
15.76 |
11.05 |
7.59 |
4.44 |
... |
13.09 |
|
8.64 |
31.45 |
38.66 |
30.81 |
25.94 |
21.44 |
17.16 |
11.05 |
7.60 |
4.44 |
... |
13.47 |
|
8.63 |
31.52 |
38.77 |
30.83 |
26.01 |
21.53 |
17.25 |
11.07 |
7.64 |
4.46 |
... |
13.32 |
|
8.63 |
31.63 |
38.82 |
30.80 |
26.06 |
21.55 |
17.27 |
11.07 |
7.65 |
4.47 |
3.17 |
13.09 |
|
8.63 |
31.72 |
38.84 |
30.82 |
26.10 |
21.57 |
17.29 |
11.08 |
7.63 |
4.44 |
3.17 |
12.84 |
|
8.63 |
31.79 |
38.89 |
30.91 |
26.16 |
21.58 |
17.31 |
11.07 |
7.59 |
4.39 |
3.17 |
12.59 |
|
8.63 |
31.81 |
38.92 |
31.03 |
26.19 |
21.61 |
17.34 |
11.07 |
7.57 |
4.40 |
3.17 |
12.36 |
|
8.63 |
31.80 |
39.03 |
31.19 |
26.27 |
21.70 |
17.44 |
11.06 |
7.59 |
4.46 |
3.17 |
12.16 |
|
8.63 |
31.80 |
39.14 |
31.32 |
26.36 |
21.82 |
17.54 |
11.05 |
7.60 |
4.47 |
3.17 |
11.98 |
|
8.64 |
31.81 |
39.12 |
31.34 |
26.35 |
21.84 |
17.54 |
11.05 |
7.60 |
4.43 |
3.17 |
11.82 |
|
8.64 |
31.77 |
39.23 |
31.45 |
26.48 |
21.97 |
17.63 |
11.04 |
7.59 |
4.38 |
3.17 |
11.68 |
|
Total |
||||||||||||
7.93 |
6.43 |
6.44 |
6.43 |
6.45 |
6.42 |
6.39 |
6.35 |
6.32 |
6.34 |
... |
6.36 |
|
20.74 |
20.38 |
16.91 |
10.53 |
8.15 |
6.70 |
5.18 |
3.92 |
2.64 |
1.62 |
... |
4.15 |
|
27.40 |
36.64 |
32.55 |
25.23 |
19.47 |
15.18 |
12.20 |
9.46 |
6.54 |
3.68 |
... |
10.13 |
|
14.00 |
41.93 |
52.29 |
36.60 |
28.50 |
21.91 |
16.47 |
11.93 |
8.59 |
5.22 |
... |
15.64 |
|
22.13 |
32.65 |
46.24 |
35.44 |
27.36 |
21.17 |
16.32 |
11.62 |
8.32 |
5.12 |
... |
15.19 |
|
21.12 |
28.33 |
39.15 |
32.46 |
25.14 |
20.15 |
15.43 |
10.97 |
7.88 |
4.94 |
... |
14.33 |
|
13.71 |
30.10 |
37.68 |
31.47 |
24.93 |
19.77 |
15.16 |
10.78 |
7.94 |
4.87 |
... |
14.26 |
|
14.75 |
35.45 |
40.96 |
34.62 |
26.87 |
21.09 |
16.04 |
11.19 |
8.10 |
4.94 |
... |
15.19 |
|
13.63 |
43.25 |
46.78 |
39.82 |
32.02 |
25.24 |
18.27 |
12.74 |
9.01 |
5.53 |
... |
17.45 |
|
20.44 |
50.88 |
55.52 |
48.04 |
38.16 |
29.68 |
20.85 |
14.28 |
9.37 |
6.06 |
... |
19.91 |
|
21.45 |
50.58 |
59.78 |
48.33 |
38.42 |
29.57 |
21.33 |
14.64 |
9.57 |
5.78 |
... |
19.73 |
|
25.81 |
49.51 |
61.30 |
52.01 |
40.82 |
31.45 |
23.14 |
15.55 |
10.21 |
5.91 |
... |
20.61 |
|
18.28 |
47.50 |
62.50 |
52.19 |
42.60 |
32.01 |
23.58 |
15.75 |
10.67 |
6.39 |
... |
20.82 |
|
17.50 |
45.33 |
55.48 |
48.60 |
40.24 |
31.32 |
23.17 |
15.23 |
10.18 |
6.06 |
... |
19.61 |
|
21.63 |
45.39 |
58.44 |
51.35 |
43.09 |
34.24 |
26.10 |
15.17 |
10.17 |
6.04 |
... |
20.41 |
|
21.54 |
45.50 |
58.36 |
51.07 |
42.94 |
34.20 |
26.15 |
15.16 |
10.20 |
6.05 |
... |
20.04 |
|
21.67 |
45.76 |
58.50 |
50.87 |
42.91 |
34.19 |
26.23 |
15.13 |
10.20 |
6.05 |
4.24 |
19.61 |
|
21.73 |
45.92 |
58.63 |
50.80 |
42.92 |
34.21 |
26.30 |
15.12 |
10.17 |
6.00 |
4.23 |
19.17 |
|
21.74 |
46.05 |
58.84 |
50.90 |
42.92 |
34.21 |
26.37 |
15.08 |
10.10 |
5.93 |
4.22 |
18.74 |
|
21.80 |
46.10 |
59.06 |
51.06 |
42.88 |
34.23 |
26.46 |
15.06 |
10.06 |
5.92 |
4.22 |
18.34 |
|
21.91 |
46.12 |
59.31 |
51.28 |
42.87 |
34.29 |
26.58 |
15.04 |
10.06 |
5.99 |
4.21 |
17.98 |
|
21.89 |
46.12 |
59.56 |
51.49 |
42.85 |
34.38 |
26.69 |
15.00 |
10.05 |
6.00 |
4.20 |
17.66 |
|
21.78 |
46.14 |
59.82 |
51.74 |
42.92 |
34.54 |
26.82 |
14.97 |
10.05 |
5.95 |
4.20 |
17.44 |
|
21.70 |
46.10 |
60.09 |
51.99 |
43.07 |
34.69 |
26.94 |
14.94 |
10.03 |
5.88 |
4.19 |
17.21 |
1 See Glossary for definition of "Normal retirement age." |
· Historical percentages computed by dividing disabled workers withheld at end of year by disabled workers in force at end of year.
· Future percentages projected based on historical trend and judgment.
Note: Future estimates based on 2001 Trustees Report intermediate set of assumptions.
List of Studies
December 26, 2001