Short-Range Actuarial Projections of the Old-Age, Survivors, and Disability Insurance Program, 2001
Actuarial Study No. 115
Chris Motsiopoulos and Tim Zayatz, A.S.A. |
||
Year |
65-NRA1
|
|||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Male |
||||||||||||
0.2 |
0.4 |
0.4 |
0.5 |
0.7 |
1.2 |
1.9 |
2.8 |
3.9 |
... |
11.9 |
||
.5 |
1.1 |
1.0 |
.9 |
.9 |
1.0 |
1.2 |
1.3 |
1.1 |
... |
9.0 |
||
.8 |
2.3 |
2.8 |
2.8 |
2.3 |
2.1 |
2.4 |
2.8 |
2.5 |
... |
20.7 |
||
.9 |
4.1 |
5.5 |
5.5 |
4.8 |
3.7 |
3.3 |
3.5 |
3.1 |
... |
34.3 |
||
.8 |
3.8 |
5.6 |
5.8 |
5.2 |
4.1 |
3.4 |
3.5 |
3.1 |
... |
35.2 |
||
.8 |
3.5 |
5.6 |
6.0 |
5.5 |
4.4 |
3.5 |
3.4 |
3.0 |
... |
35.8 |
||
1.0 |
3.6 |
5.9 |
6.6 |
5.9 |
4.8 |
3.8 |
3.6 |
3.0 |
... |
38.1 |
||
1.1 |
4.0 |
6.7 |
7.6 |
6.9 |
5.6 |
4.3 |
3.9 |
3.2 |
... |
43.3 |
||
1.3 |
4.6 |
7.9 |
9.7 |
9.2 |
7.3 |
5.4 |
4.7 |
3.7 |
... |
53.8 |
||
1.3 |
5.5 |
9.5 |
12.1 |
11.7 |
9.3 |
6.7 |
5.3 |
4.3 |
... |
65.7 |
||
1.2 |
5.5 |
8.9 |
11.7 |
11.6 |
9.4 |
7.3 |
5.7 |
4.0 |
... |
65.3 |
||
1.1 |
5.2 |
9.1 |
12.4 |
12.8 |
10.7 |
8.3 |
6.4 |
4.3 |
... |
70.3 |
||
1.1 |
5.0 |
8.7 |
12.9 |
13.4 |
11.4 |
8.9 |
7.0 |
4.8 |
... |
73.3 |
||
1.2 |
4.2 |
7.9 |
11.9 |
13.5 |
11.8 |
9.3 |
7.1 |
4.7 |
71.7 |
|||
1.3 |
4.4 |
8.2 |
12.4 |
15.0 |
14.0 |
9.6 |
7.4 |
4.9 |
77.3 |
|||
1.4 |
4.5 |
7.9 |
11.9 |
15.0 |
14.5 |
9.8 |
7.9 |
5.2 |
78.2 |
|||
1.5 |
4.7 |
7.7 |
11.5 |
15.0 |
15.0 |
10.1 |
8.3 |
5.5 |
.1 |
79.4 |
||
1.6 |
4.9 |
7.5 |
11.1 |
14.9 |
15.4 |
10.4 |
8.7 |
5.8 |
.2 |
80.5 |
||
1.6 |
5.2 |
7.3 |
10.9 |
14.6 |
15.7 |
10.7 |
9.2 |
5.9 |
.4 |
81.6 |
||
1.6 |
5.5 |
7.2 |
10.8 |
14.3 |
16.0 |
11.1 |
9.5 |
6.3 |
.5 |
82.7 |
||
1.6 |
5.8 |
7.3 |
10.6 |
13.9 |
16.1 |
11.4 |
9.6 |
6.8 |
.7 |
83.8 |
||
1.6 |
6.0 |
7.6 |
10.4 |
13.5 |
16.2 |
11.7 |
9.9 |
7.1 |
.9 |
84.9 |
||
1.6 |
6.1 |
7.9 |
10.2 |
13.2 |
16.3 |
11.9 |
10.2 |
7.5 |
.9 |
85.9 |
||
1.7 |
6.3 |
8.3 |
10.0 |
13.2 |
16.1 |
12.1 |
10.6 |
7.8 |
.9 |
86.9 |
||
Female |
||||||||||||
.1 |
.1 |
.1 |
.2 |
.4 |
.7 |
1.0 |
1.4 |
... |
4.0 |
|||
.1 |
.3 |
.3 |
.2 |
.3 |
.3 |
.4 |
.5 |
.4 |
... |
2.9 |
||
.3 |
.7 |
.8 |
.8 |
.6 |
.7 |
.9 |
1.0 |
.8 |
... |
6.5 |
||
.3 |
1.4 |
1.7 |
1.9 |
2.0 |
1.7 |
1.5 |
1.6 |
1.3 |
... |
13.5 |
||
.3 |
1.3 |
1.8 |
2.0 |
2.2 |
1.9 |
1.6 |
1.6 |
1.3 |
... |
14.0 |
||
.3 |
1.2 |
1.8 |
2.1 |
2.3 |
2.1 |
1.7 |
1.7 |
1.3 |
... |
14.5 |
||
.3 |
1.3 |
1.9 |
2.2 |
2.5 |
2.4 |
2.0 |
1.8 |
1.3 |
... |
15.7 |
||
.4 |
1.4 |
2.2 |
2.5 |
2.7 |
2.8 |
2.3 |
2.0 |
1.4 |
... |
17.7 |
||
.4 |
1.6 |
2.5 |
3.0 |
3.2 |
3.2 |
2.6 |
2.3 |
1.5 |
... |
20.4 |
||
.4 |
1.8 |
2.8 |
3.6 |
3.9 |
3.6 |
3.1 |
2.4 |
1.7 |
... |
23.2 |
||
.4 |
1.8 |
2.9 |
3.8 |
4.2 |
4.1 |
3.5 |
2.7 |
1.8 |
... |
25.3 |
||
.4 |
1.9 |
3.2 |
4.3 |
4.8 |
4.7 |
4.0 |
3.1 |
1.9 |
... |
28.4 |
||
.4 |
2.0 |
3.1 |
4.5 |
5.1 |
5.0 |
4.4 |
3.6 |
2.2 |
... |
30.2 |
||
.5 |
1.7 |
2.7 |
4.1 |
5.0 |
5.0 |
4.4 |
3.5 |
2.1 |
29.0 |
|||
.5 |
1.7 |
2.9 |
4.3 |
5.6 |
5.7 |
4.6 |
3.7 |
2.2 |
31.3 |
|||
.6 |
1.8 |
2.9 |
4.3 |
5.7 |
6.0 |
4.8 |
4.0 |
2.4 |
32.5 |
|||
.6 |
1.9 |
2.9 |
4.3 |
5.8 |
6.3 |
5.0 |
4.3 |
2.6 |
.1 |
33.7 |
||
.6 |
2.0 |
2.9 |
4.2 |
5.9 |
6.5 |
5.3 |
4.6 |
2.8 |
.1 |
34.8 |
||
.6 |
2.1 |
2.8 |
4.2 |
5.9 |
6.7 |
5.5 |
4.9 |
2.9 |
.2 |
35.8 |
||
.6 |
2.2 |
2.8 |
4.3 |
5.8 |
6.9 |
5.8 |
5.1 |
3.1 |
.3 |
36.8 |
||
.6 |
2.3 |
2.9 |
4.3 |
5.8 |
7.0 |
6.0 |
5.2 |
3.4 |
.4 |
37.9 |
||
.6 |
2.3 |
3.0 |
4.3 |
5.7 |
7.2 |
6.2 |
5.5 |
3.6 |
.5 |
38.9 |
||
.6 |
2.4 |
3.1 |
4.3 |
5.7 |
7.2 |
6.4 |
5.7 |
3.8 |
.5 |
39.6 |
||
.6 |
2.4 |
3.2 |
4.2 |
5.7 |
7.3 |
6.5 |
5.9 |
4.1 |
.5 |
40.5 |
||
Total |
||||||||||||
.2 |
.5 |
.5 |
.6 |
1.0 |
1.5 |
2.5 |
3.8 |
5.3 |
... |
15.9 |
||
.6 |
1.4 |
1.3 |
1.1 |
1.1 |
1.3 |
1.6 |
1.9 |
1.6 |
... |
11.9 |
||
1.0 |
2.9 |
3.6 |
3.5 |
2.9 |
2.8 |
3.3 |
3.8 |
3.3 |
... |
27.2 |
||
1.2 |
5.5 |
7.1 |
7.4 |
6.9 |
5.5 |
4.7 |
5.0 |
4.4 |
... |
47.8 |
||
1.1 |
5.1 |
7.4 |
7.8 |
7.3 |
6.0 |
5.0 |
5.1 |
4.3 |
... |
49.2 |
||
1.1 |
4.8 |
7.5 |
8.1 |
7.7 |
6.5 |
5.3 |
5.1 |
4.3 |
... |
50.4 |
||
1.3 |
4.9 |
7.8 |
8.8 |
8.3 |
7.1 |
5.8 |
5.5 |
4.3 |
... |
53.8 |
||
1.5 |
5.4 |
9.0 |
10.2 |
9.7 |
8.4 |
6.5 |
5.9 |
4.5 |
... |
61.0 |
||
1.7 |
6.2 |
10.4 |
12.7 |
12.4 |
10.5 |
8.0 |
7.0 |
5.3 |
... |
74.2 |
||
1.7 |
7.2 |
12.4 |
15.7 |
15.6 |
12.9 |
9.8 |
7.7 |
6.0 |
... |
88.9 |
||
1.6 |
7.3 |
11.8 |
15.5 |
15.9 |
13.5 |
10.8 |
8.4 |
5.8 |
... |
90.6 |
||
1.6 |
7.2 |
12.3 |
16.6 |
17.6 |
15.4 |
12.2 |
9.5 |
6.2 |
... |
98.7 |
||
1.6 |
7.0 |
11.8 |
17.4 |
18.6 |
16.5 |
13.3 |
10.5 |
6.9 |
... |
103.6 |
||
1.7 |
5.9 |
10.7 |
16.1 |
18.5 |
16.9 |
13.7 |
10.5 |
6.8 |
100.7 |
|||
1.8 |
6.1 |
11.1 |
16.7 |
20.5 |
19.8 |
14.3 |
11.1 |
7.1 |
108.7 |
|||
2.0 |
6.3 |
10.8 |
16.2 |
20.7 |
20.6 |
14.6 |
11.9 |
7.6 |
110.7 |
|||
2.1 |
6.6 |
10.6 |
15.8 |
20.8 |
21.3 |
15.1 |
12.6 |
8.1 |
.2 |
113.1 |
||
2.2 |
6.9 |
10.3 |
15.3 |
20.8 |
21.9 |
15.6 |
13.3 |
8.5 |
.3 |
115.3 |
||
2.2 |
7.3 |
10.1 |
15.1 |
20.5 |
22.4 |
16.2 |
14.1 |
8.8 |
.6 |
117.4 |
||
2.2 |
7.7 |
10.0 |
15.1 |
20.1 |
22.8 |
16.8 |
14.6 |
9.4 |
.8 |
119.5 |
||
2.2 |
8.0 |
10.2 |
14.9 |
19.6 |
23.1 |
17.4 |
14.9 |
10.2 |
1.1 |
121.7 |
||
2.2 |
8.3 |
10.5 |
14.7 |
19.2 |
23.4 |
17.8 |
15.4 |
10.7 |
1.4 |
123.8 |
||
2.3 |
8.5 |
11.0 |
14.5 |
18.9 |
23.5 |
18.2 |
15.9 |
11.3 |
1.4 |
125.5 |
||
2.3 |
8.7 |
11.5 |
14.3 |
18.9 |
23.4 |
18.6 |
16.5 |
11.9 |
1.4 |
127.4 |
1 See Glossary for definition of "Normal retirement age." 2 Fewer than 50. |
· Historical figures computed by subtracting disabled workers in current-payment status from disabled workers in force at end of year.
· Projected figures computed by applying projected withheld rates to disabled workers in force at end of year.
Note: Future estimates based on 2001 Trustees Report intermediate set of assumptions.
List of Studies
December 26, 2001