Short-Range Actuarial Projections of the Old-Age, Survivors, and Disability Insurance Program, 2001
Actuarial Study No. 115
Chris Motsiopoulos and Tim Zayatz, A.S.A. |
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III. BENEFIT PAYMENTS
A. NUMBER OF DISABILITY INSURANCE (DI) BENEFICIARIES
Table III.A25—DI Total Disabled Workers With Benefits In Force, Awarded, Terminated, Withheld,
and In Current-Payment Status
(Calendar years 1975-2000, and calendar quarters 2001-10)
[Numbers in thousands]
Calendar period |
In force beginning of period |
Awards during period |
Gross terminations |
In force end of period |
Benefits withheld end of period |
In current- payment status end of period |
Rate (per 1,000) |
Number |
Per 1,000 in force end of period |
Number |
|
2,251.3 |
592.0 |
133.38 |
339.8 |
2,503.6 |
6.36 |
15.9 |
2,487.6 |
|
2,503.6 |
551.5 |
132.63 |
368.6 |
2,686.4 |
6.33 |
17.0 |
2,669.4 |
|
2,686.4 |
568.9 |
136.30 |
404.9 |
2,850.4 |
4.96 |
14.1 |
2,836.2 |
|
2,850.4 |
490.8 |
143.22 |
443.4 |
2,897.8 |
6.78 |
19.6 |
2,878.2 |
|
2,897.8 |
440.5 |
146.15 |
455.7 |
2,882.6 |
4.90 |
14.1 |
2,868.5 |
|
2,882.6 |
420.3 |
140.53 |
434.6 |
2,868.3 |
4.15 |
11.9 |
2,856.4 |
|
2,868.3 |
381.0 |
150.44 |
460.1 |
2,789.1 |
6.25 |
17.4 |
2,771.7 |
|
2,789.1 |
336.1 |
169.79 |
502.1 |
2,623.1 |
9.07 |
23.8 |
2,599.3 |
|
2,623.1 |
428.5 |
163.14 |
462.9 |
2,588.7 |
9.50 |
24.6 |
2,564.1 |
|
2,588.7 |
410.0 |
136.58 |
381.6 |
2,617.1 |
9.51 |
24.9 |
2,592.2 |
|
2,617.1 |
416.1 |
124.91 |
352.9 |
2,680.3 |
10.13 |
27.2 |
2,653.1 |
|
2,680.3 |
424.9 |
121.47 |
351.4 |
2,753.8 |
10.60 |
29.2 |
2,724.6 |
|
2,753.8 |
420.3 |
121.77 |
360.9 |
2,813.2 |
11.19 |
31.5 |
2,781.7 |
|
2,813.2 |
415.3 |
120.87 |
365.1 |
2,863.4 |
13.04 |
37.3 |
2,826.1 |
|
2,863.4 |
430.7 |
116.16 |
357.6 |
2,936.4 |
15.62 |
45.9 |
2,890.6 |
|
2,936.4 |
472.1 |
111.61 |
354.1 |
3,054.5 |
15.64 |
47.8 |
3,006.7 |
|
3,054.5 |
540.8 |
106.91 |
355.5 |
3,239.8 |
15.19 |
49.2 |
3,190.6 |
|
3,239.8 |
642.1 |
103.29 |
367.8 |
3,514.1 |
14.33 |
50.4 |
3,463.7 |
|
3,514.1 |
637.4 |
98.25 |
376.6 |
3,774.9 |
14.26 |
53.8 |
3,721.1 |
|
3,774.9 |
631.9 |
94.74 |
387.6 |
4,019.2 |
15.19 |
61.0 |
3,958.2 |
|
4,019.2 |
645.6 |
94.74 |
411.4 |
4,253.5 |
17.45 |
74.2 |
4,179.3 |
|
4,253.5 |
624.3 |
89.91 |
410.5 |
4,467.3 |
19.91 |
88.9 |
4,378.3 |
|
4,467.3 |
587.7 |
97.39 |
463.7 |
4,591.3 |
19.73 |
90.6 |
4,500.7 |
|
4,591.3 |
608.4 |
83.76 |
410.0 |
4,789.6 |
20.61 |
98.7 |
4,690.9 |
|
4,789.6 |
620.6 |
85.58 |
436.4 |
4,973.8 |
20.82 |
103.6 |
4,870.2 |
|
4,973.8 |
621.3 |
86.81 |
458.7 |
5,136.4 |
19.61 |
100.7 |
5,035.6 |
|
5,136.4 |
161.7 |
21.93 |
114.4 |
5,183.7 |
19.81 |
102.7 |
5,081.0 |
|
5,183.7 |
161.7 |
21.30 |
112.2 |
5,233.2 |
20.01 |
104.7 |
5,128.5 |
|
5,233.2 |
161.7 |
21.10 |
112.2 |
5,282.8 |
20.21 |
106.7 |
5,176.0 |
|
5,282.8 |
151.5 |
20.51 |
109.9 |
5,324.4 |
20.41 |
108.7 |
5,215.7 |
|
5,324.4 |
168.4 |
21.78 |
117.8 |
5,375.0 |
20.31 |
109.2 |
5,265.8 |
|
5,375.0 |
168.4 |
21.16 |
115.5 |
5,427.9 |
20.22 |
109.8 |
5,318.1 |
|
5,427.9 |
168.4 |
20.95 |
115.5 |
5,480.8 |
20.13 |
110.3 |
5,370.4 |
|
5,480.8 |
157.8 |
20.36 |
113.2 |
5,525.4 |
20.04 |
110.7 |
5,414.6 |
|
5,525.4 |
174.0 |
20.12 |
112.9 |
5,586.5 |
19.93 |
111.3 |
5,475.1 |
|
5,586.5 |
174.0 |
19.52 |
110.7 |
5,649.8 |
19.82 |
112.0 |
5,537.8 |
|
5,649.8 |
174.0 |
19.30 |
110.7 |
5,713.1 |
19.71 |
112.6 |
5,600.5 |
|
5,713.1 |
163.1 |
18.73 |
108.5 |
5,767.7 |
19.61 |
113.1 |
5,654.6 |
|
5,767.7 |
179.7 |
20.08 |
117.6 |
5,829.8 |
19.50 |
113.6 |
5,716.1 |
|
5,829.8 |
179.7 |
19.48 |
115.3 |
5,894.1 |
19.39 |
114.3 |
5,779.9 |
|
5,894.1 |
179.7 |
19.27 |
115.3 |
5,958.5 |
19.27 |
114.9 |
5,843.7 |
|
5,958.5 |
168.4 |
18.70 |
113.0 |
6,013.9 |
19.17 |
115.3 |
5,898.6 |
|
6,013.9 |
186.1 |
20.10 |
122.8 |
6,077.2 |
19.06 |
115.8 |
5,961.4 |
|
6,077.2 |
186.1 |
19.51 |
120.4 |
6,143.0 |
18.95 |
116.4 |
6,026.5 |
|
6,143.0 |
186.1 |
19.30 |
120.4 |
6,208.7 |
18.85 |
117.0 |
6,091.7 |
|
6,208.7 |
174.4 |
18.74 |
118.0 |
6,265.1 |
18.74 |
117.4 |
6,147.7 |
|
6,265.1 |
192.6 |
20.23 |
128.7 |
6,329.0 |
18.64 |
118.0 |
6,211.1 |
|
6,329.0 |
192.6 |
19.63 |
126.1 |
6,395.5 |
18.54 |
118.6 |
6,276.9 |
|
6,395.5 |
192.6 |
19.43 |
126.1 |
6,461.9 |
18.44 |
119.1 |
6,342.7 |
|
6,461.9 |
180.4 |
18.87 |
123.6 |
6,518.7 |
18.34 |
119.5 |
6,399.2 |
|
6,518.7 |
198.2 |
20.41 |
135.1 |
6,581.8 |
18.25 |
120.1 |
6,461.7 |
|
6,581.8 |
198.2 |
19.82 |
132.4 |
6,647.5 |
18.16 |
120.7 |
6,526.8 |
|
6,647.5 |
198.2 |
19.63 |
132.4 |
6,713.2 |
18.07 |
121.3 |
6,591.9 |
|
6,713.2 |
185.7 |
19.07 |
129.8 |
6,769.1 |
17.98 |
121.7 |
6,647.4 |
|
6,769.1 |
204.1 |
20.84 |
143.2 |
6,830.1 |
17.90 |
122.3 |
6,707.8 |
|
6,830.1 |
204.1 |
20.25 |
140.4 |
6,893.9 |
17.82 |
122.8 |
6,771.0 |
|
6,893.9 |
204.1 |
20.06 |
140.4 |
6,957.7 |
17.74 |
123.4 |
6,834.3 |
|
6,957.7 |
191.3 |
19.50 |
137.5 |
7,011.4 |
17.66 |
123.8 |
6,887.6 |
|
7,011.4 |
210.0 |
23.00 |
163.7 |
7,057.7 |
17.60 |
124.2 |
6,933.5 |
|
7,057.7 |
210.0 |
22.41 |
160.5 |
7,107.3 |
17.55 |
124.7 |
6,982.6 |
|
7,107.3 |
210.0 |
22.25 |
160.5 |
7,156.8 |
17.50 |
125.2 |
7,031.6 |
|
7,156.8 |
196.8 |
21.68 |
157.3 |
7,196.3 |
17.44 |
125.5 |
7,070.8 |
|
7,196.3 |
216.5 |
22.51 |
164.5 |
7,248.4 |
17.38 |
126.0 |
7,122.4 |
|
7,248.4 |
216.5 |
21.92 |
161.2 |
7,303.7 |
17.32 |
126.5 |
7,177.2 |
|
7,303.7 |
216.5 |
21.75 |
161.2 |
7,359.0 |
17.27 |
127.1 |
7,232.0 |
|
7,359.0 |
202.9 |
21.18 |
158.0 |
7,403.9 |
17.21 |
127.4 |
7,276.5 |
Sources:
· Historical number in force from 1-A Table In Force Supplement; future number in force computed by adding awards to number in force at beginning of period, and subtracting number of terminations.
· Historical awards based on SSA administrative records; future quarterly awards interpolated from annual awards (shown earlier).
· Historical termination rates computed as ratio of (a) terminations, to (b) exposure of in force population during the period; future termination rates projected based on historical trend and judgment.
· Historical number of terminations computed as beginning-of-period in force plus awards minus end-of-period in force; future number of terminations computed by applying termination rate to exposure of in force population during the period.
· Historical percentage of benefits withheld computed by dividing number withheld by end-of-period in force; future withheld percentages projected based on historical trend and judgment.
· Historical number of benefits withheld computed as end-of-period in force minus number in current-payment status; future number of benefits withheld computed by applying withheld percentage to end-of-period in force.
· Historical number of benefits in current-payment status from 1-A Table Current-Payment Supplement; future number of benefits in current-payment status computed as end-of-period in force minus number withheld.
Note: Future estimates based on 2001 Trustees Report intermediate set of assumptions.
List of Studies
December 26, 2001