Short-Range Actuarial Projections of the Old-Age, Survivors, and Disability Insurance Program, 2001
Actuarial Study No. 115
Chris Motsiopoulos and Tim Zayatz, A.S.A. |
||
Calendar period |
In force beginning of period |
Awards during period |
Gross terminations |
In force end of period |
Benefits withheld end of period |
In current- payment status end of period |
||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Rate (per 1,000) |
Number |
Per 1,000 in force end of period |
Number |
|||||
2.4 |
213.23 |
0.3 |
2.1 |
36.30 |
0.1 |
2.1 |
||
2.1 |
2.6 |
259.21 |
.9 |
3.8 |
151.54 |
.6 |
3.3 |
|
3.8 |
1.7 |
155.58 |
.7 |
4.8 |
192.54 |
.9 |
3.9 |
|
4.8 |
1.7 |
158.26 |
.9 |
5.6 |
218.04 |
1.2 |
4.4 |
|
5.6 |
1.8 |
187.01 |
1.2 |
6.2 |
230.23 |
1.4 |
4.7 |
|
6.2 |
1.7 |
186.40 |
1.3 |
6.5 |
237.07 |
1.5 |
5.0 |
|
6.5 |
1.3 |
166.48 |
1.2 |
6.6 |
246.79 |
1.6 |
5.0 |
|
6.6 |
1.5 |
164.62 |
1.2 |
6.9 |
252.90 |
1.7 |
5.1 |
|
6.9 |
1.8 |
164.32 |
1.3 |
7.4 |
253.50 |
1.9 |
5.5 |
|
7.4 |
2.0 |
158.57 |
1.3 |
8.1 |
257.87 |
2.1 |
6.0 |
|
8.1 |
1.9 |
167.16 |
1.5 |
8.5 |
269.94 |
2.3 |
6.2 |
|
8.5 |
1.7 |
165.30 |
1.6 |
8.7 |
274.48 |
2.4 |
6.3 |
|
8.7 |
1.5 |
164.80 |
1.6 |
8.7 |
279.14 |
2.4 |
6.2 |
|
8.7 |
1.3 |
160.94 |
1.5 |
8.5 |
550.28 |
4.7 |
3.8 |
|
8.5 |
1.0 |
159.98 |
1.4 |
8.0 |
579.83 |
4.7 |
3.4 |
|
8.0 |
.9 |
170.43 |
1.4 |
7.5 |
628.72 |
4.7 |
2.8 |
|
7.5 |
.8 |
180.44 |
1.4 |
6.9 |
649.97 |
4.5 |
2.4 |
|
6.9 |
.8 |
167.70 |
1.2 |
6.5 |
672.79 |
4.4 |
2.1 |
|
6.5 |
.2 |
45.00 |
.3 |
6.4 |
672.33 |
4.3 |
2.1 |
|
6.4 |
.2 |
45.00 |
.3 |
6.3 |
671.87 |
4.2 |
2.1 |
|
6.3 |
.2 |
45.00 |
.3 |
6.2 |
671.40 |
4.2 |
2.0 |
|
6.2 |
.2 |
45.00 |
.3 |
6.1 |
670.94 |
4.1 |
2.0 |
|
6.1 |
.2 |
45.00 |
.3 |
6.1 |
670.48 |
4.1 |
2.0 |
|
6.1 |
.2 |
45.00 |
.3 |
6.0 |
670.01 |
4.0 |
2.0 |
|
6.0 |
.2 |
45.00 |
.3 |
6.0 |
669.55 |
4.0 |
2.0 |
|
6.0 |
.2 |
45.00 |
.3 |
5.9 |
669.09 |
3.9 |
1.9 |
|
5.9 |
.2 |
45.00 |
.3 |
5.8 |
668.62 |
3.9 |
1.9 |
|
5.8 |
.2 |
45.00 |
.3 |
5.8 |
668.16 |
3.9 |
1.9 |
|
5.8 |
.2 |
45.00 |
.3 |
5.8 |
667.70 |
3.9 |
1.9 |
|
5.8 |
.2 |
45.00 |
.3 |
5.7 |
667.23 |
3.8 |
1.9 |
|
5.7 |
.2 |
45.00 |
.3 |
5.7 |
666.77 |
3.8 |
1.9 |
|
5.7 |
.2 |
45.00 |
.3 |
5.7 |
666.31 |
3.8 |
1.9 |
|
5.7 |
.2 |
45.00 |
.3 |
5.6 |
665.84 |
3.8 |
1.9 |
|
5.6 |
.2 |
45.00 |
.3 |
5.6 |
665.38 |
3.7 |
1.9 |
|
5.6 |
.2 |
45.00 |
.3 |
5.6 |
664.92 |
3.7 |
1.9 |
|
5.6 |
.2 |
45.00 |
.3 |
5.6 |
664.45 |
3.7 |
1.9 |
|
5.6 |
.2 |
45.00 |
.3 |
5.6 |
663.99 |
3.7 |
1.9 |
|
5.6 |
.2 |
45.00 |
.3 |
5.5 |
663.53 |
3.7 |
1.9 |
|
5.5 |
.3 |
45.00 |
.3 |
5.5 |
663.07 |
3.7 |
1.9 |
|
5.5 |
.3 |
45.00 |
.3 |
5.5 |
662.60 |
3.7 |
1.9 |
|
5.5 |
.3 |
45.00 |
.3 |
5.5 |
662.14 |
3.7 |
1.9 |
|
5.5 |
.2 |
45.00 |
.3 |
5.5 |
661.67 |
3.6 |
1.9 |
|
5.5 |
.3 |
45.00 |
.3 |
5.5 |
661.21 |
3.6 |
1.9 |
|
5.5 |
.3 |
45.00 |
.3 |
5.5 |
660.75 |
3.7 |
1.9 |
|
5.5 |
.3 |
45.00 |
.3 |
5.5 |
660.29 |
3.7 |
1.9 |
|
5.5 |
.2 |
45.00 |
.3 |
5.5 |
659.82 |
3.6 |
1.9 |
|
5.5 |
.3 |
45.00 |
.3 |
5.5 |
659.36 |
3.6 |
1.9 |
|
5.5 |
.3 |
45.00 |
.3 |
5.5 |
658.90 |
3.7 |
1.9 |
|
5.5 |
.3 |
45.00 |
.3 |
5.6 |
658.43 |
3.7 |
1.9 |
|
5.6 |
.3 |
45.00 |
.3 |
5.6 |
657.97 |
3.7 |
1.9 |
|
5.6 |
.3 |
45.00 |
.3 |
5.6 |
657.51 |
3.7 |
1.9 |
|
5.6 |
.3 |
45.00 |
.3 |
5.6 |
657.04 |
3.7 |
1.9 |
|
5.6 |
.3 |
45.00 |
.3 |
5.6 |
656.58 |
3.7 |
1.9 |
|
5.6 |
.3 |
45.00 |
.3 |
5.6 |
656.12 |
3.7 |
1.9 |
|
5.6 |
.3 |
45.00 |
.3 |
5.6 |
655.65 |
3.7 |
1.9 |
|
5.6 |
.3 |
45.00 |
.3 |
5.7 |
655.19 |
3.7 |
2.0 |
|
5.7 |
.3 |
45.00 |
.3 |
5.7 |
654.73 |
3.7 |
2.0 |
|
5.7 |
.3 |
45.00 |
.3 |
5.7 |
654.26 |
3.7 |
2.0 |
1 This benefit became available on October 17, 1980, but was not paid in significant numbers until November 1983. 2 Fewer than 50. |
· Historical number in force from 1-A Table In Force Supplement; future number in force computed by adding awards to number in force at beginning of period, and subtracting number of terminations.
· Historical awards based on SSA administrative records; future quarterly awards interpolated from annual awards (shown earlier).
· Historical termination rates computed as ratio of (a) terminations, to (b) exposure of in force population during the period; future termination rates projected based on historical trend and judgment.
· Historical number of terminations computed as beginning-of-period in force plus awards minus end-of-period in force; future number of terminations computed by applying termination rate to exposure of in force population during the period.
· Historical percentage of benefits withheld computed by dividing number withheld by end-of-period in force; future withheld percentages projected based on historical trend and judgment.
· Historical number of benefits withheld computed as end-of-period in force minus number in current-payment status; future number of benefits withheld computed by applying withheld percentage to end-of-period in force.
· Historical number of benefits in current-payment status from 1-A Table Current-Payment Supplement; future number of benefits in current-payment status computed as end-of-period in force minus number withheld.
Note: Future estimates based on 2001 Trustees Report intermediate set of assumptions.
List of Studies
December 26, 2001