Short-Range Actuarial Projections of the Old-Age, Survivors, and Disability Insurance Program, 2001
Actuarial Study No. 115
Chris Motsiopoulos and Tim Zayatz, A.S.A. |
||
Year |
65-NRA 1
|
||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Male |
|||||||||||
73.00 |
85.90 |
94.80 |
96.40 |
96.30 |
95.20 |
94.10 |
90.10 |
84.40 |
65.70 |
65.70 |
|
73.10 |
86.40 |
94.60 |
96.50 |
96.00 |
95.00 |
93.30 |
89.90 |
83.60 |
63.70 |
63.70 |
|
74.40 |
86.70 |
94.80 |
96.40 |
96.20 |
95.30 |
93.20 |
89.20 |
83.20 |
62.90 |
62.90 |
|
74.80 |
87.10 |
94.90 |
96.30 |
96.40 |
95.10 |
93.00 |
89.70 |
82.90 |
62.00 |
62.00 |
|
73.90 |
87.60 |
95.00 |
96.20 |
96.40 |
95.30 |
93.40 |
89.60 |
82.20 |
61.80 |
61.80 |
|
73.20 |
87.00 |
94.70 |
96.20 |
96.00 |
95.10 |
93.30 |
89.30 |
81.90 |
61.00 |
61.00 |
|
72.50 |
86.50 |
94.30 |
95.90 |
96.00 |
94.90 |
93.40 |
89.60 |
81.30 |
58.70 |
58.70 |
|
69.70 |
86.00 |
94.20 |
95.60 |
95.90 |
94.70 |
92.80 |
89.70 |
81.90 |
57.20 |
57.20 |
|
70.27 |
85.80 |
93.87 |
94.92 |
95.69 |
94.86 |
93.32 |
89.03 |
80.74 |
56.90 |
56.90 |
|
69.82 |
86.06 |
93.90 |
95.16 |
95.72 |
95.14 |
93.31 |
88.94 |
80.22 |
56.02 |
56.02 |
|
70.45 |
86.09 |
94.16 |
95.64 |
95.43 |
94.75 |
93.33 |
88.62 |
79.58 |
55.63 |
55.63 |
|
69.86 |
86.86 |
94.40 |
95.19 |
95.22 |
94.45 |
92.90 |
88.93 |
79.04 |
54.88 |
54.88 |
|
69.01 |
86.30 |
94.23 |
95.29 |
95.00 |
94.34 |
92.86 |
88.38 |
79.73 |
54.90 |
54.90 |
|
69.60 |
86.09 |
93.99 |
95.00 |
94.87 |
94.28 |
93.03 |
88.42 |
79.33 |
54.34 |
54.34 |
|
70.44 |
86.26 |
93.99 |
95.25 |
94.78 |
94.37 |
92.69 |
89.22 |
79.47 |
54.86 |
54.86 |
|
68.39 |
85.39 |
93.96 |
94.73 |
94.89 |
93.99 |
92.28 |
88.87 |
79.88 |
55.58 |
55.58 |
|
66.64 |
84.54 |
93.58 |
94.16 |
94.48 |
93.91 |
92.24 |
88.43 |
79.09 |
54.79 |
54.79 |
|
67.08 |
84.24 |
93.36 |
94.58 |
94.20 |
93.32 |
92.13 |
88.95 |
78.99 |
54.71 |
54.71 |
|
66.20 |
84.10 |
93.20 |
93.97 |
93.82 |
93.12 |
91.68 |
88.05 |
78.24 |
54.06 |
54.06 |
|
66.06 |
83.90 |
92.21 |
93.27 |
92.96 |
92.74 |
91.01 |
86.73 |
76.94 |
52.74 |
52.74 |
|
67.15 |
83.90 |
92.55 |
93.74 |
92.60 |
92.11 |
90.72 |
86.42 |
77.37 |
53.15 |
53.15 |
|
66.10 |
83.28 |
93.14 |
93.54 |
92.87 |
92.04 |
90.80 |
86.94 |
77.86 |
54.29 |
54.29 |
|
64.78 |
83.28 |
92.70 |
93.56 |
93.17 |
92.06 |
90.83 |
87.86 |
78.67 |
54.51 |
54.51 |
|
65.21 |
82.74 |
92.96 |
93.74 |
93.14 |
92.25 |
90.82 |
87.29 |
78.40 |
55.43 |
55.43 |
|
65.13 |
82.68 |
92.94 |
93.90 |
93.41 |
92.32 |
90.37 |
86.97 |
78.38 |
54.82 |
54.82 |
|
65.83 |
83.41 |
92.76 |
94.18 |
93.28 |
91.85 |
90.23 |
86.99 |
76.95 |
55.01 |
55.01 |
|
65.06 |
83.95 |
92.90 |
93.61 |
93.05 |
91.43 |
90.16 |
87.25 |
77.56 |
54.06 |
54.06 |
|
65.07 |
84.01 |
93.02 |
93.67 |
93.22 |
91.51 |
90.10 |
87.10 |
77.90 |
54.88 |
54.88 |
|
64.95 |
83.93 |
93.00 |
93.56 |
93.26 |
91.41 |
89.93 |
86.76 |
78.19 |
55.69 |
55.69 |
|
64.87 |
83.86 |
92.98 |
93.47 |
93.21 |
91.37 |
89.78 |
86.47 |
77.93 |
55.81 |
55.81 |
|
64.82 |
83.81 |
92.97 |
93.40 |
93.16 |
91.34 |
89.67 |
86.23 |
78.07 |
55.05 |
55.05 |
|
64.76 |
83.76 |
92.95 |
93.35 |
93.13 |
91.29 |
89.60 |
86.00 |
77.87 |
54.34 |
54.34 |
|
64.70 |
83.70 |
92.91 |
93.35 |
93.04 |
91.30 |
89.50 |
85.79 |
77.64 |
54.77 |
54.77 |
|
64.66 |
83.66 |
92.88 |
93.37 |
92.94 |
91.34 |
89.38 |
85.62 |
77.37 |
55.25 |
55.25 |
|
64.66 |
83.63 |
92.86 |
93.42 |
92.87 |
91.29 |
89.33 |
85.48 |
77.12 |
55.00 |
55.00 |
|
64.63 |
83.64 |
92.86 |
93.39 |
92.77 |
91.23 |
89.34 |
85.45 |
76.96 |
54.71 |
54.71 |
|
Female |
|||||||||||
58.30 |
64.30 |
57.10 |
51.70 |
54.90 |
56.80 |
55.90 |
53.30 |
47.90 |
33.30 |
33.30 |
|
59.20 |
65.20 |
59.30 |
54.60 |
57.20 |
58.50 |
57.00 |
53.10 |
48.10 |
33.10 |
33.10 |
|
60.60 |
66.70 |
61.80 |
56.90 |
59.50 |
59.70 |
57.90 |
53.70 |
48.00 |
32.90 |
32.90 |
|
62.30 |
68.50 |
64.30 |
59.80 |
60.90 |
62.50 |
59.80 |
54.50 |
48.60 |
33.10 |
33.10 |
|
63.10 |
69.30 |
65.80 |
61.80 |
63.40 |
63.90 |
60.40 |
56.50 |
48.70 |
33.90 |
33.90 |
|
62.30 |
69.20 |
66.80 |
64.10 |
64.90 |
66.10 |
62.10 |
57.80 |
48.60 |
33.30 |
33.30 |
|
61.30 |
69.80 |
67.70 |
65.90 |
66.40 |
67.40 |
64.20 |
58.20 |
49.40 |
32.70 |
32.70 |
|
61.40 |
70.10 |
69.10 |
66.90 |
67.40 |
68.60 |
65.30 |
58.00 |
49.60 |
33.40 |
33.40 |
|
60.94 |
70.16 |
69.97 |
68.09 |
68.24 |
69.27 |
65.33 |
58.53 |
48.78 |
33.80 |
33.80 |
|
61.98 |
70.69 |
70.54 |
69.16 |
70.20 |
70.06 |
66.25 |
59.38 |
49.84 |
33.37 |
33.37 |
|
61.93 |
72.09 |
71.52 |
70.40 |
71.71 |
71.84 |
67.76 |
60.84 |
50.32 |
33.41 |
33.41 |
|
62.47 |
72.64 |
72.46 |
71.01 |
73.03 |
73.22 |
69.53 |
62.03 |
51.34 |
33.18 |
33.18 |
|
62.44 |
73.27 |
73.42 |
71.61 |
73.98 |
75.14 |
70.66 |
63.15 |
52.17 |
33.16 |
33.16 |
|
63.09 |
72.97 |
73.72 |
71.98 |
74.56 |
75.88 |
72.55 |
64.79 |
53.29 |
33.81 |
33.81 |
|
62.67 |
72.65 |
74.08 |
73.17 |
74.99 |
77.15 |
74.34 |
65.90 |
54.79 |
35.63 |
35.63 |
|
60.45 |
71.55 |
73.74 |
73.43 |
75.46 |
77.47 |
74.72 |
66.88 |
55.29 |
35.51 |
35.51 |
|
59.63 |
70.35 |
73.36 |
73.06 |
75.56 |
77.63 |
75.35 |
67.80 |
55.67 |
35.10 |
35.10 |
|
58.92 |
71.12 |
74.26 |
73.73 |
75.54 |
78.06 |
75.75 |
68.68 |
56.77 |
36.43 |
36.43 |
|
60.37 |
71.14 |
73.69 |
73.35 |
75.35 |
77.93 |
76.42 |
69.80 |
57.09 |
37.03 |
37.03 |
|
60.26 |
71.26 |
74.46 |
73.76 |
76.00 |
78.29 |
77.64 |
70.66 |
59.18 |
37.81 |
37.81 |
|
61.74 |
70.56 |
74.97 |
75.08 |
76.35 |
78.12 |
77.24 |
70.74 |
59.49 |
38.00 |
38.00 |
|
60.15 |
71.54 |
75.94 |
74.76 |
76.54 |
78.62 |
78.03 |
71.86 |
59.80 |
38.15 |
38.15 |
|
61.41 |
72.91 |
77.43 |
74.93 |
76.63 |
78.91 |
78.08 |
73.49 |
60.73 |
39.49 |
39.49 |
|
62.83 |
73.21 |
77.40 |
75.45 |
75.57 |
78.60 |
78.81 |
72.98 |
61.28 |
39.12 |
39.12 |
|
61.14 |
73.46 |
77.00 |
75.96 |
76.20 |
78.23 |
78.93 |
74.00 |
61.83 |
38.82 |
38.82 |
|
61.19 |
73.73 |
77.58 |
75.54 |
76.18 |
78.63 |
78.92 |
74.16 |
61.34 |
40.02 |
40.02 |
|
61.05 |
74.64 |
78.15 |
74.89 |
76.56 |
78.12 |
78.28 |
73.94 |
61.38 |
41.15 |
41.15 |
|
60.96 |
74.45 |
78.24 |
75.62 |
76.50 |
77.94 |
78.41 |
74.23 |
62.17 |
40.92 |
40.92 |
|
60.80 |
73.96 |
78.18 |
76.14 |
76.35 |
77.60 |
78.25 |
74.29 |
62.88 |
40.32 |
40.32 |
|
60.64 |
73.80 |
78.12 |
76.55 |
76.12 |
77.34 |
78.03 |
74.21 |
63.11 |
39.72 |
39.72 |
|
60.53 |
73.72 |
78.20 |
76.79 |
75.78 |
77.37 |
77.81 |
73.97 |
63.47 |
38.96 |
38.96 |
|
60.43 |
73.70 |
78.25 |
76.95 |
75.76 |
77.40 |
77.64 |
73.72 |
63.37 |
38.69 |
38.69 |
|
60.33 |
73.67 |
78.28 |
76.98 |
76.01 |
77.43 |
77.34 |
73.50 |
63.23 |
39.27 |
39.27 |
|
60.22 |
73.62 |
78.24 |
76.89 |
76.54 |
77.35 |
77.07 |
73.40 |
63.12 |
39.80 |
39.80 |
|
60.14 |
73.60 |
78.20 |
76.85 |
76.95 |
77.15 |
76.87 |
73.21 |
62.98 |
39.71 |
39.71 |
|
60.08 |
73.62 |
78.21 |
76.92 |
77.27 |
77.13 |
76.93 |
73.14 |
62.87 |
39.37 |
39.37 |
1 See Glossary for definition of "Normal retirement age." |
· Historical rates are annual averages from January issues of Employment and Earnings.
· Future rates projected by the Office of the Chief Actuary.
Note: Future estimates based on 2001 Trustees Report intermediate set of assumptions.
List of Studies
December 26, 2001