Short-Range Actuarial Projections of the Old-Age, Survivors, and Disability Insurance Program, 2001
Actuarial Study No. 115
Chris Motsiopoulos and Tim Zayatz, A.S.A. |
||
Year |
65-NRA 1
|
|||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Male |
||||||||||||
93.56 |
88.24 |
88.74 |
89.46 |
90.99 |
91.49 |
90.87 |
90.05 |
89.22 |
89.33 |
... |
89.86 |
|
91.67 |
86.77 |
89.45 |
87.49 |
89.55 |
91.85 |
90.69 |
90.37 |
89.19 |
90.32 |
... |
89.35 |
|
91.94 |
86.56 |
88.76 |
88.05 |
89.29 |
90.74 |
90.93 |
89.97 |
90.55 |
88.37 |
... |
89.12 |
|
93.93 |
90.05 |
88.56 |
87.53 |
89.89 |
90.37 |
90.87 |
90.37 |
89.65 |
90.07 |
... |
89.79 |
|
96.30 |
93.12 |
89.34 |
87.19 |
89.27 |
91.38 |
90.38 |
90.16 |
90.22 |
87.61 |
... |
90.31 |
|
96.92 |
93.97 |
90.39 |
86.66 |
89.16 |
90.51 |
90.20 |
90.53 |
89.62 |
84.00 |
... |
90.16 |
|
95.73 |
92.33 |
91.50 |
88.39 |
87.77 |
89.43 |
91.05 |
90.09 |
90.67 |
85.23 |
... |
90.15 |
|
94.71 |
90.72 |
91.42 |
88.70 |
89.05 |
89.47 |
90.31 |
90.16 |
91.20 |
87.46 |
... |
90.14 |
|
93.94 |
90.02 |
91.21 |
88.46 |
88.48 |
90.08 |
89.86 |
89.97 |
91.46 |
85.31 |
... |
89.71 |
|
93.82 |
90.54 |
91.22 |
88.98 |
88.31 |
89.78 |
90.51 |
89.66 |
90.56 |
87.75 |
... |
89.91 |
|
95.46 |
91.95 |
91.55 |
89.60 |
87.91 |
89.90 |
90.28 |
89.90 |
90.46 |
86.96 |
... |
90.18 |
|
95.76 |
92.51 |
91.47 |
90.23 |
89.48 |
88.26 |
88.89 |
90.50 |
89.54 |
87.51 |
... |
90.27 |
|
95.01 |
92.54 |
91.59 |
90.01 |
89.24 |
89.29 |
88.54 |
89.30 |
89.13 |
86.99 |
... |
90.11 |
|
94.79 |
93.23 |
91.49 |
90.03 |
89.25 |
89.01 |
89.46 |
88.80 |
88.96 |
87.50 |
... |
90.20 |
|
94.99 |
93.13 |
91.03 |
89.79 |
89.59 |
89.00 |
89.29 |
89.61 |
88.76 |
86.18 |
... |
90.07 |
|
94.39 |
92.91 |
90.87 |
89.68 |
89.98 |
88.76 |
89.58 |
89.61 |
89.06 |
85.34 |
... |
89.98 |
|
93.16 |
91.78 |
91.16 |
89.37 |
90.55 |
90.21 |
88.77 |
88.56 |
89.88 |
84.71 |
... |
89.90 |
|
91.76 |
90.33 |
91.53 |
90.09 |
90.79 |
90.24 |
90.09 |
88.97 |
89.11 |
85.58 |
... |
90.04 |
|
92.24 |
90.26 |
91.63 |
90.80 |
91.12 |
90.34 |
90.10 |
89.96 |
89.01 |
85.34 |
... |
90.27 |
|
93.22 |
91.33 |
91.06 |
91.26 |
91.20 |
90.91 |
90.26 |
89.96 |
89.57 |
86.40 |
... |
90.61 |
|
94.18 |
91.88 |
90.82 |
91.20 |
91.63 |
91.48 |
90.10 |
90.07 |
89.57 |
85.56 |
... |
90.73 |
|
94.95 |
91.90 |
90.87 |
91.16 |
91.71 |
91.89 |
90.72 |
90.25 |
88.67 |
86.91 |
... |
90.92 |
|
95.08 |
92.33 |
90.82 |
91.08 |
91.65 |
91.74 |
90.53 |
90.67 |
89.33 |
85.48 |
... |
90.88 |
|
95.01 |
92.25 |
90.74 |
90.74 |
91.80 |
91.53 |
90.50 |
90.66 |
89.84 |
86.30 |
... |
90.90 |
|
95.01 |
92.35 |
91.32 |
90.66 |
90.34 |
90.43 |
90.42 |
89.89 |
88.62 |
85.96 |
... |
90.40 |
|
95.21 |
93.40 |
91.43 |
90.50 |
90.80 |
91.24 |
90.58 |
90.10 |
89.28 |
86.05 |
... |
90.77 |
|
95.10 |
93.99 |
91.59 |
90.86 |
90.84 |
91.35 |
90.46 |
89.92 |
88.77 |
85.83 |
... |
90.80 |
|
95.17 |
94.16 |
91.65 |
90.83 |
90.51 |
91.20 |
90.42 |
89.94 |
88.58 |
86.01 |
... |
90.74 |
|
95.22 |
94.23 |
91.73 |
90.90 |
90.27 |
91.12 |
90.41 |
89.97 |
88.38 |
86.22 |
81.27 |
90.69 |
|
95.28 |
94.29 |
91.78 |
90.92 |
90.19 |
90.99 |
90.40 |
90.00 |
88.30 |
86.20 |
81.20 |
90.63 |
|
95.35 |
94.35 |
91.84 |
90.91 |
90.10 |
90.82 |
90.36 |
90.00 |
88.09 |
85.94 |
81.00 |
90.54 |
|
95.41 |
94.38 |
91.87 |
90.89 |
89.99 |
90.68 |
90.30 |
90.01 |
88.03 |
85.80 |
81.00 |
90.45 |
|
95.48 |
94.41 |
91.91 |
90.84 |
89.98 |
90.43 |
90.26 |
90.00 |
88.03 |
85.96 |
81.00 |
90.38 |
|
95.55 |
94.43 |
91.94 |
90.78 |
89.97 |
90.13 |
90.23 |
89.99 |
88.01 |
86.08 |
81.00 |
90.31 |
|
95.63 |
94.47 |
91.96 |
90.70 |
89.89 |
89.97 |
90.15 |
89.97 |
87.99 |
86.01 |
81.00 |
90.25 |
|
95.70 |
94.51 |
91.99 |
90.67 |
89.86 |
89.82 |
90.03 |
89.94 |
87.94 |
85.78 |
81.00 |
90.18 |
|
Female |
||||||||||||
92.86 |
77.63 |
65.14 |
52.37 |
53.24 |
60.99 |
67.11 |
69.59 |
71.31 |
68.60 |
... |
66.75 |
|
91.11 |
77.00 |
67.76 |
53.20 |
53.71 |
62.43 |
68.22 |
70.15 |
71.88 |
68.74 |
... |
67.34 |
|
91.53 |
77.67 |
69.06 |
55.85 |
55.17 |
62.74 |
69.95 |
71.08 |
73.16 |
68.21 |
... |
68.36 |
|
93.53 |
81.97 |
70.96 |
57.99 |
56.70 |
64.52 |
71.28 |
72.66 |
72.99 |
69.86 |
... |
70.46 |
|
97.30 |
86.30 |
73.69 |
60.68 |
58.61 |
66.59 |
72.82 |
74.71 |
74.36 |
68.58 |
... |
72.83 |
|
96.40 |
87.38 |
75.90 |
62.48 |
60.73 |
68.03 |
73.04 |
75.18 |
73.94 |
65.52 |
... |
73.59 |
|
95.31 |
86.49 |
78.29 |
66.34 |
62.37 |
69.38 |
75.07 |
76.69 |
75.80 |
68.76 |
... |
75.01 |
|
94.30 |
84.97 |
79.49 |
68.76 |
66.39 |
71.99 |
76.16 |
79.00 |
77.62 |
72.09 |
... |
76.32 |
|
93.75 |
83.54 |
80.37 |
70.35 |
68.18 |
73.27 |
77.97 |
79.91 |
79.01 |
70.52 |
... |
76.73 |
|
93.81 |
84.37 |
80.39 |
72.20 |
69.79 |
74.40 |
79.01 |
80.60 |
79.73 |
72.88 |
... |
77.61 |
|
95.45 |
86.68 |
81.06 |
73.70 |
70.79 |
75.50 |
79.99 |
81.12 |
80.46 |
73.13 |
... |
78.65 |
|
95.73 |
88.13 |
81.95 |
74.80 |
72.64 |
75.27 |
80.01 |
82.05 |
80.88 |
74.17 |
... |
79.49 |
|
95.36 |
88.46 |
82.97 |
75.39 |
73.11 |
76.43 |
80.69 |
81.42 |
81.95 |
74.61 |
... |
80.01 |
|
95.28 |
89.19 |
83.05 |
76.45 |
73.80 |
77.04 |
81.35 |
82.55 |
82.39 |
75.63 |
... |
80.61 |
|
95.09 |
89.62 |
83.61 |
76.84 |
75.07 |
77.66 |
81.97 |
83.52 |
83.05 |
75.51 |
... |
81.15 |
|
94.60 |
89.59 |
84.25 |
77.45 |
75.99 |
78.30 |
82.58 |
84.24 |
83.34 |
75.23 |
... |
81.55 |
|
94.03 |
87.93 |
85.00 |
78.40 |
76.88 |
80.05 |
82.19 |
84.22 |
84.38 |
76.54 |
... |
81.97 |
|
92.91 |
86.73 |
85.55 |
79.70 |
77.74 |
80.41 |
83.75 |
85.21 |
84.15 |
78.65 |
... |
82.53 |
|
92.70 |
86.83 |
85.69 |
80.28 |
78.93 |
80.89 |
84.01 |
85.79 |
85.18 |
78.55 |
... |
82.98 |
|
94.11 |
87.56 |
85.79 |
81.18 |
79.39 |
81.53 |
84.52 |
86.24 |
85.46 |
79.86 |
... |
83.56 |
|
94.84 |
88.00 |
85.84 |
81.58 |
79.97 |
81.92 |
84.86 |
86.44 |
85.97 |
79.59 |
... |
83.92 |
|
95.36 |
88.72 |
86.29 |
81.97 |
80.44 |
82.17 |
85.48 |
86.50 |
86.12 |
80.79 |
... |
84.41 |
|
95.38 |
89.97 |
85.99 |
82.17 |
80.93 |
82.17 |
85.27 |
86.81 |
86.72 |
78.95 |
... |
84.56 |
|
95.54 |
90.05 |
86.58 |
82.33 |
80.99 |
82.55 |
85.10 |
86.59 |
86.42 |
80.08 |
... |
84.77 |
|
94.77 |
90.11 |
87.14 |
83.31 |
82.21 |
83.54 |
86.43 |
87.99 |
87.60 |
80.80 |
... |
85.70 |
|
94.86 |
90.29 |
87.56 |
83.79 |
82.57 |
83.70 |
86.24 |
87.89 |
87.38 |
81.45 |
... |
85.91 |
|
94.81 |
90.71 |
87.91 |
84.23 |
83.05 |
84.13 |
86.68 |
88.44 |
87.86 |
81.86 |
... |
86.37 |
|
94.78 |
90.71 |
88.17 |
84.63 |
83.48 |
84.43 |
86.82 |
88.60 |
88.06 |
82.15 |
... |
86.63 |
|
94.70 |
90.61 |
88.38 |
85.00 |
83.91 |
84.76 |
87.10 |
88.94 |
88.41 |
82.38 |
76.00 |
86.90 |
|
94.61 |
90.62 |
88.58 |
85.36 |
84.31 |
85.06 |
87.29 |
89.17 |
88.60 |
82.48 |
76.00 |
87.12 |
|
94.56 |
90.67 |
88.78 |
85.71 |
84.70 |
85.36 |
87.51 |
89.44 |
88.79 |
82.43 |
75.63 |
87.33 |
|
94.51 |
90.75 |
88.97 |
86.05 |
85.07 |
85.65 |
87.71 |
89.66 |
88.87 |
82.57 |
75.54 |
87.52 |
|
94.45 |
90.82 |
89.15 |
86.36 |
85.40 |
85.93 |
87.90 |
89.84 |
88.98 |
82.95 |
76.00 |
87.70 |
|
94.39 |
90.88 |
89.31 |
86.66 |
85.71 |
86.19 |
88.08 |
90.00 |
89.08 |
83.04 |
76.00 |
87.84 |
|
94.35 |
90.96 |
89.47 |
86.95 |
86.01 |
86.44 |
88.27 |
90.10 |
89.15 |
82.95 |
76.00 |
87.99 |
|
94.32 |
91.05 |
89.63 |
87.22 |
86.31 |
86.68 |
88.46 |
90.17 |
89.20 |
82.75 |
76.00 |
88.11 |
1 See Glossary for definition of "Normal retirement age." |
· Historical rates computed by dividing number insured for disability by number fully insured.
· Future rates projected by regression on labor force participation rates and time.
Note: Future estimates based on 2001 Trustees Report intermediate set of assumptions.
List of Studies
December 26, 2001